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Action! Lights, Camera: The Effect of Preannouncements on Experience Goods – The Case
                            of the Motion Picture Industry

Abstract: Firms developing new products often execute a preannouncement strategy as a signal
to the market that it plans to commercialize a new market offering. Following a thorough
assessment of the risks and benefits associated with preannouncement, the firm must decide
which information to announce to whom and at what time. Much of the research conducted in
this stream focuses on search products; little work includes experience good, such as motion
pictures. Preannouncements provide a relatively quick and expensive way for firms to clarify the
uncertainties about their products. Since the Golden Days of the Silver Screen, the motion
picture industry has employed preannouncement strategy prior to the release of new movies.
Months or even years prior to the production of a new picture, studio release information to the
media regarding a sought-after property for which they have obtained the movie rights or which
actors are being consider for a coveted starring role in the next blockbuster. This paper is perhaps
the first to link the dimensions of preannouncement strategy to market anticipation for new films
and first weekend box office revenues. A conceptual model is presented which includes the
moderating factors of studio advertising and third party critical reviews.

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                                                 1
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                                               2
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                                               3
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                                              4
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                                             5
Table 1: Selected Timeline for Preannouncement Publicity – Gone with the Wind and Brokeback Mountain

                                       Gone with the Wind                                       Brokeback Mountain
      Event             Details of the Event          Date        Source         Details of the Event         Date       Source
Movie Rights       Selznick pays $50,000 for       07/11/1936    NY Times    Annie Proulx sells rights to  12/19/1998   Brice 1998
Secured            rights to Gone with the Wind.                  1936a      Brokeback Mountain for
                                                                             undisclosed amount.
Director           George Cukor is selected to      09/12/1936   NY Times    Gus Van Sant is chosen to     01/08/1999     Snead
Announcements      direct Gone with the Wind.                     1936b      direct for Brokeback                         1999
                                                                             Mountain.
                                                                             Ang Lee is signed to direct   01/17/2004   Kane 2004
                                                                             Brokeback Mountain.
                   Victor Fleming replaces          02/15/1939   NY Times
                   Cukor as director.                             1939b
Selected Casting   Tallulah Bankhead tries out      12/22/1936   NY Times    Heath Ledger and Jake         01/18/2004     Harris
Announcements      for Scarlett O‟Hara.                           1936c      Gyllenhaal are selected to                   2004
                   Miriam Hopkins and Clark         03/19/1937   NY Times    play the leads in Brokeback
                   Gable are cast as Scarlett                      1937      Mountain.
                   O‟Hara and Rhett Butler.
                   Norma Shearer is cast as         06/24/1938   NY Times
                   Scarlett O‟Hara.                               1938a
                   Norma Shearer declines           08/01/1938   NY Times
                   Scarlett role due to fans.                     1938b
                   Warner Bros. to loan Bette       09/21/1938   NY Times
                   Davis for Scarlett O‟Hara.                     1938c
                   Carole Lombard is cast to        12/18/1938   Churchill
                   play Scarlett O‟Hara.                           1938
                   Vivien Leigh is cast as          01/14/1939   NY Times
                   Scarlett O‟Hara.                               1939a
Release            Gone with the Wind opens in      12/15/1939    Berger     Brokeback Mountain begins     12/14/2005   Puig 2005
                   Atlanta amidst parades, balls,                  1939      in limited release on
                   and antebellum costuming.                                 12/09/2005. First weekend
                                                                             receipts are $545,000 in
                                                                             five theaters.



                                                                 6
7

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Preannouncement of experience goods references

  • 1. Action! Lights, Camera: The Effect of Preannouncements on Experience Goods – The Case of the Motion Picture Industry Abstract: Firms developing new products often execute a preannouncement strategy as a signal to the market that it plans to commercialize a new market offering. Following a thorough assessment of the risks and benefits associated with preannouncement, the firm must decide which information to announce to whom and at what time. Much of the research conducted in this stream focuses on search products; little work includes experience good, such as motion pictures. Preannouncements provide a relatively quick and expensive way for firms to clarify the uncertainties about their products. Since the Golden Days of the Silver Screen, the motion picture industry has employed preannouncement strategy prior to the release of new movies. Months or even years prior to the production of a new picture, studio release information to the media regarding a sought-after property for which they have obtained the movie rights or which actors are being consider for a coveted starring role in the next blockbuster. This paper is perhaps the first to link the dimensions of preannouncement strategy to market anticipation for new films and first weekend box office revenues. A conceptual model is presented which includes the moderating factors of studio advertising and third party critical reviews. Reference List Basuroy, Suman, Subimal Chatterjee, and S. Abraham Ravid (2003), “How Critical Are Critical Reviews? The Box Office Effects of Film Critics, Star Power, and Budgets,” Journal of Marketing, 67, 103-117. _____, Kalpesh Kaushik Desai, and Debabrata Talukdar (2006), “An Empirical Investigation of Signaling in the Motion Picture Industry,” Journal of Marketing Research, 43, 287-295. Berger, Meyer (1939), “Atlanta Retaken by Glory of Past,” New York Times, December 15: 27. Bosley, Crowther (1938), “Mr. Selznick and a Scarlett Future,” New York Times, October 30: X5. Brice, Chris (1998), “Annie goes to Hollywood,” The Advertiser, December 19. Calantone, Roger J. and Kim E. Schatzel (2000), “Strategic Foretelling: Communication-Based Antecedents of a Firm‟s Propensity to Preannounce,” Journal of Marketing, 64, 17-30. Churchill, Douglas W. (1938), “Latest Scarlett Letter,” New York Times, December 18: 7. Edidin, Peter (2008), “Directing Bilbo Baggins,” New York Times, April 26, B-8. Edwards, David (2008), “Movies: A Super Heroes‟ Welcome; 2008 Preview,” The Mirror, January 4, 2. Elberse, Anita and Bharat Anand (2007), “The effectiveness of pre-release advertising for motion pictures: An empirical investigation using a simulated market,” Information Economics and Policy, 19, 319-343 1
  • 2. Eliashberg, Jehoshua and Thomas S. Robertson (1988), “New Product Preannouncement Behavior: A Market Signaling Study,” Journal of Marketing Research, 25, 282-292. _____ and Steven M. Shugan (1997), “Film Critics: Influencers or Predictors?” Journal of Marketing, 61, 68-78. Farrell, Joseph and Garth Saloner (1986), “Installed Bases and Compatibility: Innovation, Product Preannouncements, and Predation,” The American Economic Review, 76 (5), 940-955. Fombrun, Charles and Mark Shanley (1990), “What‟s In A Name? Reputation Building and Corporate Strategy,” Academy of Management Journal, 33, 233-258. Halbfinger, David M. (2007), “Master of „Rings‟ to Tackle „Hobbit‟,” New York Times, December 19, E-1. Harris, Paul (2004), “Hollywood to break last taboo with gay cowboys: Stars set to play in Ang Lee western based on Annie Proulx story of ranch hands relationship with rodeo rider,” The Observer, January 18: 22. Herbig, Paul and John Milewicz (1996), “Market signaling: a review,” Management Decision, 34:1, 35-45. Hoch, Stephen J. and John Deighton (1989), “Managing What Consumers Learn from Experience,” Journal of Marketing, 53 (April), 1–20. _____ and Young-Won Ha (1986), “Consumer Learning: Advertising and the Ambiguity of Product Experience,” Journal of Consumer Research, 13 (September), 221–33. Homberg, Christian, Torsten Bornemann, and Dirk Totzek (2009), “Preannouncing pioneering versus follower products: what should the message be?” Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 37, 310-327. Huang, Peng, Nicholas H. Lurie, and Sabyasachi Mitra (2009), “Searching for Experience on the Web: An Empirical Examination of Consumer Behavior for Search and Experience Goods,” Journal of Marketing, 73 (2), 55-69. Itzkoff, Dave (2010a), “Del Toro Quits as Director of „Hobbit‟,” New York Times, June 1, C-3. _____ (2010b), “Jackson Says He‟s begun Plans for „Hobbit‟ Move,” New York Times, October 21, C-2. _____ (2010c), “Now Small Roles: „The Hobbit‟ Announces Its First Cast Members,” New York Times, October 23, C-3. 2
  • 3. _____ (2011), “‟The Hobbit‟ Goes Into Production, Finally,” New York Times, March 22, C-2. Kane, Matt (2004), “Names and Faces”, The Washington Post, January 17: Style C03. Kirmani, Amna and Akshay R. Rao (2000), “No Pain, No Gain: A Critical Review of the Literature on Signaling Unobservable Product Quality,” Journal of Marketing, 54, 66-79. Lilly, Bryan and Rockney Walters (1997), “Toward a Model of New Product Preannouncement Timing,” Journal of Product Innovation Management, 14, 4-20. Liu, Yong (2006), “Word of Mouth for Movies: Its Dynamics and Impact on Box Office Revenue,” Journal of Marketing, 70, 74-89. Mahajan, Jijay, Eitan Muller, and Roger A. Kerin (1984), “Introduction Strategy for New Products with Positive and Negative Word of Mouth,” Management Science, 30 (12), 1389-1404. Neelamegham, Ramya and Dipak Jain, “Consumer Choice Process for Experience Goods: An Econometric Model and Analysis,” Journal of Marketing Research, 36 (3), 373-386. Nelson, Phillip (1970), “Information and Consumer Behavior,” Journal of Political Economy, 78 (March–April), 311–29. _____ (1974), “Advertising as Information,” Journal of Political Economy, 82 (July–August), 729–54. News of the Screen (1936a), “J.M. Schenck, Trader, Arrives -- Mr. Goldwyn's Backyard Discovery -- Miss Davis Fights It Out,” New York Times, July 11: 11. _____ (1936b) “Franchot Tone Cast in 'Quality Street' -- A Denial Concerning Charles Laughton – Programs,” New York Times, September 9: 20. _____ (1937) “Miriam Hopkins and Gable Slated for Leads in 'Gone With the Wind'-Two Films Open Today News From Hollywood,” New York Times March 19: 27. Porter, Michael (1980), Competitive Strategy. New York: The Free Press. Puig, Claudia (2005), “'Brokeback' rides into the mainstream; With awards talk, the time seems right for its gay theme.” USA Today, December 14: Life 1D. Rabino, Samuel and Thomas E. Moore (1989), “Managing New-Product Announcements in the Computer Industry,” Industrial Marketing Management, 18, 35-43. Ravid, S. Abraham (1999), “Information, Blockbusters, and Stars: A Study of the Film Industry,” Journal of Business, 72 (4), 463-492. 3
  • 4. Robertson, Thomas S., Jehoshua Eliashberg, and Talia Rymon (1995), “New Product Preannouncement Signals and Incumbent Reactions,” Journal of Marketing, 59, 1-15. Sawhney and Eliashberg (1996), “A Parsimonious Model for Forecasting Gross Box Office Revenues of Motion Pictures,” Marketing Science, 15 (2), 113-131. Schatzel, Kim and Roger Calantone (2006), “Creating Market Anticipation: An Exploratory Examination of the Effect of Preannouncement Behavior on a New Product‟s Launch,” Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 34:3, 357-366. _____, _____, and Cornelia Droge (2001), “Beyond the firm‟s initial declaration: Are preannouncements of new product introductions and withdrawals alike?” Journal of Product Innovation Management, 18, 82-95. _____ (2008), “Unfortunately the induction of our new product will be delayed: An exploratory examination of factors that influence a firm to announce changes in its new product plans,” Journal of Applied Business Research, 24:2, 115-126. Snead, Elizabeth (1999), “Hollywood caught up in latest stampede of Westerns,” USA Today, January 8: Life 2E. Sorescu, Alina, Venkatesh Shankar, and Tarun Kushwaha (2007), “New Product Preannouncements and Shareholding Value: Don‟t Make Promises You Can‟t Keep,” Journal of Marketing Research, 44, 468-489. Special to New York Times (1936c), “Tallulah Bankhead Tries Out for Role of Scarlett in „Gone with the Wind‟,” New York Times, December 22: 32. _____ (1938a), “Shearer to Star in „Gone with the Wind‟,” New York Times, June 24: 15. _____ (1938b), “Shearer Gives Up Role of Scarlett,” New York Times, August 1: 9. _____ (1938c), “Screen News Here and in Hollywood,” New York Times, September 21: 31. _____ (1939a), “Vivien Leigh Gets Role of Scarlett,” New York Times, January 14: 12. _____ (1939b), “Screen News Here and in Hollywood,” New York Times, February 15: 20. Spence, A. Michael (1974), Market Signaling. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. Taylor, John (2003), “Word of Mouth Is Where It‟s At,” Brandweek, (June 2), 26. Terry, Neil, De‟Aeno De‟Armond, and Miles Zachary (2009), “The Determinants of Opening Weekend Box Office Revenues for Movies,” Journal of Academy of Business and Academics, 9 (4), 193-201. 4
  • 5. Treme, Julianne (2010), “Effects of Celebrity Media Exposure on Box Office Performance,” Journal of Media Economics, 23, 5-16. Van Gelder, Lawrence (2007), “Footnote”, New York Times, November 7, E5. Weathers, Danny, Subhash Sharma, and Stacy L. Wood (2007), “Effects of Online Communication Practices on Consumer Perceptions of Performance Uncertainty for Search and Experience Goods,” Journal of Retailing, 83 (4), 393–401. Wind, Jerry and Vijay Mahajan (1987), “Marketing Hype: A New Perspective for New Product Research and Introduction,” Journal of Product Innovation Management, 4, 43-49. Zufryden, Fred S. (1996), “Linking Advertising to Box Office Performance of New Film Releases – A Marketing Planning Model,” Journal of Advertising Research, 29-41. 5
  • 6. Table 1: Selected Timeline for Preannouncement Publicity – Gone with the Wind and Brokeback Mountain Gone with the Wind Brokeback Mountain Event Details of the Event Date Source Details of the Event Date Source Movie Rights Selznick pays $50,000 for 07/11/1936 NY Times Annie Proulx sells rights to 12/19/1998 Brice 1998 Secured rights to Gone with the Wind. 1936a Brokeback Mountain for undisclosed amount. Director George Cukor is selected to 09/12/1936 NY Times Gus Van Sant is chosen to 01/08/1999 Snead Announcements direct Gone with the Wind. 1936b direct for Brokeback 1999 Mountain. Ang Lee is signed to direct 01/17/2004 Kane 2004 Brokeback Mountain. Victor Fleming replaces 02/15/1939 NY Times Cukor as director. 1939b Selected Casting Tallulah Bankhead tries out 12/22/1936 NY Times Heath Ledger and Jake 01/18/2004 Harris Announcements for Scarlett O‟Hara. 1936c Gyllenhaal are selected to 2004 Miriam Hopkins and Clark 03/19/1937 NY Times play the leads in Brokeback Gable are cast as Scarlett 1937 Mountain. O‟Hara and Rhett Butler. Norma Shearer is cast as 06/24/1938 NY Times Scarlett O‟Hara. 1938a Norma Shearer declines 08/01/1938 NY Times Scarlett role due to fans. 1938b Warner Bros. to loan Bette 09/21/1938 NY Times Davis for Scarlett O‟Hara. 1938c Carole Lombard is cast to 12/18/1938 Churchill play Scarlett O‟Hara. 1938 Vivien Leigh is cast as 01/14/1939 NY Times Scarlett O‟Hara. 1939a Release Gone with the Wind opens in 12/15/1939 Berger Brokeback Mountain begins 12/14/2005 Puig 2005 Atlanta amidst parades, balls, 1939 in limited release on and antebellum costuming. 12/09/2005. First weekend receipts are $545,000 in five theaters. 6
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