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Präsentation 2010-02.pdf

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Wirtschaftliche Lage im 2. Quartal 2010
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Präsentation 2010-02.pdf

  1. 1. Wirtschaftliche Lageim 2. Quartal 2010Ergebnisse der aktuellen Konjunkturumfrage der IHK Heilbronn-Franken22. Juli 2010 1
  2. 2. Gesamtergebnis Konjunkturumfrage 2. Quartal 2010 60 53,7 53,2 50 34,4 37,2 40 27,6 30 22,5 20 11,9 9,6 10 0 -1022. Juli 2010 2
  3. 3. Geschäftslage/Geschäftserwartung Gesamtkonjunktur 2/2005 - 2/2010 60 40 Aktuelle Geschäftslage 20 0 Erwartete Arbeitsmarktlage -20 -40 Erwartete Geschäftslage -60 2/05 3/05 4/05 1/06 2/06 3/06 4/06 1/07 2/07 3/07 4/07 1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 1/10 2/10 Die Linien geben jeweils den Saldo der Prozentanteile positiver und Aktuelle Geschäftslage negativer Urteile der Unternehmen aller Branchen zur aktuellen Erwartete Geschäftslage Geschäftslage sowie zur erwarteten Geschäfts- bzw. Arbeitsmarktlage an. Erwartete Arbeitsmarktlage22. Juli 2010 3
  4. 4. Anteile der Branchen in der Region Heilbronn-Franken in Bezug auf sozialversicherungspflichtig Beschäftigte Sonstige Industrie 1% (incl. Bergbau, Energie- und Wasserversorgung) 40% Dienstleistungen Baugewerbe (incl. Gastgewerbe, 5% Verkehr und Nach- richtenübermittlung) 39% Handel 15% Quelle: Statistisches Landesamt Baden-Württemberg, Stichtag 30. Juni 2009 Quelle : Statistisches Landesamt Baden-Württemberg, Stichtag 31. März 200322. Juli 2010 4
  5. 5. Industrie - 2. Quartal 2010 60 47,3 44,8 48,1 50 39,9 37,7 40 27,1 30 20 12,8 7,1 10 0 -1022. Juli 2010 5
  6. 6. Industrie - Alle Branchen 2/2005 - 2/2010 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 2/05 3/05 4/05 1/06 2/06 3/06 4/06 1/07 2/07 3/07 4/07 1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 1/10 2/10 Die Linien geben jeweils den Saldo der Prozentanteile positiver und negativer Aktuelle Geschäftslage Urteile der Unternehmen der Industrie zur aktuellen Geschäftslage und zur Geschäftserwartung Geschäftserwartung an.22. Juli 2010 6
  7. 7. Verarbeitendes Gewerbe 2010 - Veränderungen in Prozent gegenüber dem entsprechenden Vorjahreszeitraum 40 29,1 30 23,5 20 14,6 14,0 10 0 - 2,4 - 3,8 - 10 Umsatz Januar - Mai Export Januar - Mai Beschäftigte Mai Region Heilbronn-Franken Baden-Württemberg Quelle: Statistisches Landesamt Baden-Württemberg22. Juli 2010 7
  8. 8. Baugewerbe - 2. Quartal 2010 60 51,4 51,4 50 40 29,7 27,0 30 18,9 21,6 20 10,8 10 0 -10 - 5,4 -2022. Juli 2010 8
  9. 9. Baugewerbe 2/2005 - 2/2010 70 50 30 10 -10 -30 -50 -70 2/05 3/05 4/05 1/06 2/06 3/06 4/06 1/07 2/07 3/07 4/07 1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 1/10 2/10 Die Linien geben jeweils den Saldo der Prozentanteile positiver und negativer Aktuelle Geschäftslage Urteile der Unternehmen des Baugewerbes zur aktuellen Geschäftslage und Geschäftserwartung zur Geschäftserwartung an.22. Juli 2010 9
  10. 10. Großhandel - 2. Quartal 2010 70 58,5 60 46,1 50 43,1 40 32,3 32,3 30 23,1 20 9,2 10,8 10 0 -1022. Juli 2010 10
  11. 11. Großhandel * 2/2005 - 2/2010 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 -70 2/05 3/05 4/05 1/06 2/06 3/06 4/06 1/07 2/07 3/07 4/07 1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 1/10 2/10 * ohne Handel mit Kraftfahrzeugen Aktuelle Geschäftslage Die Linien geben jeweils den Saldo der Prozentanteile positiver und negativer Geschäftserwartung Urteile der Unternehmen des Großhandels zur aktuellen Geschäftslage und zur Geschäftserwartung an.22. Juli 2010 11
  12. 12. Einzelhandel - 2. Quartal 2010 90 79,5 80 70 57,8 60 50 35,5 40 28,8 30 20 6,7 9,1 11,4 10 0 - 2,3 -1022. Juli 2010 12
  13. 13. Einzelhandel * 2/2005 - 2/2010 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 2/05 3/05 4/05 1/06 2/06 3/06 4/06 1/07 2/07 3/07 4/07 1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 1/10 2/10 * ohne Handel mit Kraftfahrzeugen Aktuelle Geschäftslage Die Linien geben jeweils den Saldo der Prozentanteile positiver und negativer Geschäftserwartung Urteile der Unternehmen des Einzelhandels zur aktuellen Geschäftslage und zur Geschäftserwartung an.22. Juli 2010 13
  14. 14. Dienstleistungen - 2. Quartal 2010 70 62,5 60 52,8 50 36,2 40 23,9 25,2 30 20 13,6 11,0 10,3 10 0 -1022. Juli 2010 14
  15. 15. Dienstleistungen * 2/2005 - 2/2010 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 -70 2/05 3/05 4/05 1/06 2/06 3/06 4/06 1/07 2/07 3/07 4/07 1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 1/10 2/10 * Dienstleistungen ohne Kreditgewerbe und Hotel- und Gaststättengewerbe Aktuelle Geschäftslage Die Linien geben jeweils den Saldo der Prozentanteile positiver und negativer Geschäftserwartung Urteile der Dienstleister zur aktuellen Geschäftslage und zur Geschäfts- erwartung an.22. Juli 2010 15
  16. 16. Fazit: Konjunkturerholung setzt sich fort. Export ist Zugpferd der Erholung. Lageurteile in der Industrie erneut verbessert. Situation im Baugewerbe positiver. Starke Aufhellung im Handel; Einzelhandel meldet beste Geschäftslage von allen Branchen. Optimismus bei Dienstleistern etwas gedämpft. Betriebe planen seit fast zwei Jahren wieder Personalaufbau. Urteile zur weiteren Entwicklung etwas verhaltener als im Vorquartal.22. Juli 2010 16

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