1. Tactical
Strategic
Constrained SM
Tactical Absolute
Unconstrained SM
Return
NavigatiNg vo l ati le Ma rk e ts
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2. iMportaNce of asset allocatioN
A s s e t A l l o c At i o n i s r e s p o n s i b l e f o r o v e r 9 0 % o f t h e vA r i A n c e i n p o r t f o l i o p e r f o r m A n c e .
91.5% Asset Allocation
4.6% Securities Selection
1.8% Timing
2.1% Other Factors
Asset allocation cannot eliminate the risk of fluctuating prices and uncertain returns.
Brinson, Hood & Beebower, Financial Analysts Journal, 1986
Brinson, Singer & Beebower, Financial Analysts Journal, 1991
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3. alterNatiNg secul ar Bear aNd Bull Markets
D o w J o n e s i n D u s t r i A l Av e r A g e : 1 9 0 6 – s e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 9
Market Regime BEAR BULL BEAR BULL BEAR BULL BEAR
1/14/2000-
Dates 1906-1921 1921-1929 1929-1942 1942-1966 1966-1982 1982-2000
9/30/2009
Length in Years 15.5 Years 8 Years 12.5 Years 24 Years 16.5 Years 17.5 Years 9+
Cumulative Return -15.31% 496.51% -75.62% 970.98% -21.93% 1408.9% -17.20%
Annualized Return -1.06% 24.9% -10.55% 10.47% -1.49% 16.84% -1.90%
10,000.00
1,000.00
100.00
10.00
1906 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2009
(Sept)
Used with permission by Ned Davis Research. For more information please visit, www.ndr.com
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (a registered trademark of Dow Jones & Co., Inc) is an unmanaged index composed of 30 common stocks.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Returns shown above do not reflect the reinvestment of
dividends or other distributions, and represent only the price appreciation of the index.
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4. alterNatiNg secul ar stock Market regiMes
D o w J o n e s i n D u s t r i A l Av e r A g e : 1 9 0 6 – s e p t e m b e r 3 0 , 2 0 0 9
1906-1921 1921-1929 1929-1942 1942-1966 1966-1982 1982-2000 2000 – PreSent
tyPe of Bear Bull Bear Bull Bear Bull Bear
Market
Length In 15.5 8 12.5 24 16.5 17.5 9+
yearS
annuaLIzed -1.06 24.9 -10.55 10.47 -1.49 16.84 -1.90
return(%)*
InfLatIon n/a1 -0.3 -0.6 2.9 7.0 3.2 2.50
Index (CPI)2
reaL return3 n/a1 25.2 -9.95 7.57 -8.49 13.64 -4.40
1
Information not tracked for this period 2
Data is annualized. 3
Real return is the return on an investment reduced by the effects of inflation on its value. Data is annualized.
Used with permission by Ned Davis Research. For more information please visit, www.ndr.com * Chart does not reflect dividends.
Source for Inflation Index (CPI): Bureau of Labor Statistics
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (a registered trademark of Dow Jones Co., Inc) is an unmanaged index composed of 30 common stocks.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Returns shown above do not reflect the reinvestment of dividends or other distributions, and
represent only the price appreciation of the index.
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5. cyclical Markets withiN secul ar Markets
D o w J o n e s i n D u s t r i A l Av e r A g e : 1 9 6 6 – 1 9 8 2
Bear Bull Bear Bull Bear Bull Bear Bull Bear Bull Bear Bull Bear
-25.2% 32.4% -35.9% 50.6% -16.1% 31.8% -45.1% 75.7% -26.9% 22.3% -16.4% 34.9% -24.1%
0.65 2.15 1.47 0.92 0.57 1.13 1.90 1.79 1.43 0.52 1.61 1.01 1.29
years years years years years years years years years years years years years
1065 1065
1024 1024
985 985
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Dow Jones Industrial Average
947 947
911 911
877 877
843 843
811 811
780 780
750 750
722 722
694 694
668 668
642 Total Change Over Secular Bear: -21.9% 642
618 Total Chart Length: 16.44 Years 618
594 594
572 572
19 6 7 1968 196 9 197 0 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982
Used with permission by Ned Davis Research. For more information please visit, www.ndr.com
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (a registered trademark of Dow Jones Co., Inc) is an unmanaged index composed of 30 common stocks.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Returns shown above do not reflect the reinvestment of dividends or other distributions,
and represent only the price appreciation of the index.
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6. sp 500 iNdex positive aNd Negative days
60%
50% 53.5% 54.0%
51.1%
48.9%
46.5% 46.0%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1950-2008 Bear 1966-1982 Bull 1983-1999
Up Days % Down Days %
Used With Permission: Crestmont Research, www.crestmontresearch.com
The SP 500 (a registered trademark of the McGraw Hill Companies) is an unmanaged basket of 500 stocks that are considered to be widely held and thus
believed to be a good indicator of overall market performance. This index of common stocks is weighted by market value.
You cannot invest directly into an index.
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7. four approaches to asset allocatioN
tactical
strategic
constrained sm
tactical Absolute
unconstrained sm
return
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8. asset allocatioN approaches - defiNitioNs
strategic Asset Allocation
A Strategic Asset Allocation approach creates a mix of equities, fixed income, and cash designed to capture
broad capital market returns while balancing risk and volatility. The goal of a Strategic Asset Allocation approach is
to put the positive winds of “sailing” markets to work in your portfolio.
tactical constrainedsm Asset Allocation
Tactical ConstrainedSM approaches attempt to capture broad market returns while also seeking to take advantage
of shorter term opportunities or mitigate risks through moderate allocation shifts. Tactical ConstrainedSM
approaches may also put the positive winds of “sailing” markets to work in your portfolio, but they also create
the potential for the portfolio strategist to add additional value through active, near term allocation decisions.
tactical unconstrainedsm Asset Allocation
Tactical UnconstrainedSM Asset Allocation approaches remove the limits on the extent and frequency of allocation
shifts, allowing the portfolio strategist to move more aggressively in response to changes in their outlook. Tactical
UnconstrainedSM Asset Allocation approaches can provide flexibility for “rowing” markets when headwinds place
a premium on active asset class management.
Absolute return Asset Allocation
Absolute return strategies are for risk-averse investors comfortable with modest returns in exchange for
highly active risk management that may include frequent allocation shifts, non-traditional asset classes and/or
alternative strategies. Absolute strategies may be used for attempting to “row” toward your goals regardless of
the stock market’s direction.
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9. choice of portfolio strategists
s t r At e g i c tA c t i c A l c o n s t r A i n e D sm
Avatar
goldman sachs
callan Associates gfAm
new frontier J.p.morgan
litman/gregory
state street
tA c t i c A l u n c o n s t r A i n e D sm Absolute return
gfAm Avatar
rochdale gfAm
stadion J.p.morgan
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10. for further information on the specific strategists
offered in the asset allocation approaches, please
contact your financial advisor.
for more complete information about the various
investment solutions and fees associated with them,
please refer to the schedule h disclosure Brochure.
Capital Brokerage Corporation and Genworth Financial Wealth
Management, Inc. are Genworth Financial companies. Capital
Brokerage Corporation member FINRA.
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