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연구보고서 2011-03경제 세계화와 우리 경제의위기대응역량조 동 철․김 현 욱 편
발 간 사2008년 9월 리먼브라더스의 파산보호 신청과 함께 전 세계 금융시장은 공황상태에 빠져 들었다. 미국을 비롯한 선진국들의 주택가격이 폭락하였고 눈덩이처럼 불어나는 부실채권에 눌려 금융시장은 자금공급기능을 상실하...
기대응을 원활히 하기 위한 정책방향에 대해 살펴보았다(제4부: 정책대응과 향후 정책방향).본 보고서는 KDI 정책대학원의 조동철 교수와 최근SK경영연구소로자리를 옮긴 김현욱 박사가 본원에 근무할 당시에 기획하였다. 연구...
목 차발간사총론 및 요약 ······················································································· 1제1부 세계 경제위기와 우리 경제제...
제2절 글로벌 금융위기와 외화유동성 부족 ··································· 511. 자본유출 ·····················································...
4. 소 결 ··················································································· 124제3절 중국 내수경기와 우리나라 수출의 연관성 ··...
제2절 기존 연구 ·········································································· 184제3절 통계자료에 대한 설명 ··················...
참고문헌 ······················································································· 271제7장 금융기관 건전성과 외부충격의 파급 (함준...
2. 저금리 통화정책기조의 본격화 ············································ 3273. 저금리 통화정책기조의 효과 ·····································...
4. 준재정부문의 관리 강화 ······················································ 390제3절 통화정책 ·······································...
표 목 차<표 1- 1> 주가 ····································································································· 27<...
<부표 2-1> 외환위기 관련 계량분석 결과 요약 ···················································· 102<표 3- 1> 국가별 실질수출 증가율에 대한 회귀분석 결과 ····...
<표 6- 4> 부채보유가구의 소비분위별 부채 관련 현황(2009년) ·························· 245<표 6- 5> 소득분위별 담보 및 신용대출의 대출기관별 비중 ··················...
<표 9- 9> 소비성 지출 10조원 증가의 거시경제 파급효과 ································· 362<표 9-10> 소득보조성 지출 10조원 증가의 거시경제 파급효과 ·············...
그 림 목 차[그림 1- 1] 원/달러 환율과 주가지수 ···································································· 18[그림 1- 2] 수출 ·······...
[그림 2- 4] 총외채 및 단기외채 규모 ··································································· 57[그림 2- 5] 외은지점과 국내 은행 간의 외화차...
[그림 4- 9] 경제위기와 고용: 민간부문 vs. 공공부문 ·········································· 168[그림 4-10] OECD 국가의 고용증가율 변화 ··············...
[그림 6- 2] GDP 증가율과 민간소비 증가율 ······················································· 235[그림 6- 3] 민간소비 증가율에 대한 각 형태별 소비의 기여...
[그림 7- 2] 외환위기 당시 금융 및 은행부문 주가지수 추이 ······························ 280[그림 7- 3] 외환위기 당시 국내 은행의 원화 유동성 관련 지표 ··············...
[그림 9- 1] 우리나라의 국가채무 및 일반정부 채무 추이 ··································· 345[그림 9- 2] 주요국의 국가채무(2007년 말) ····················...
총론 및 요약제1절 연구의 배경 및 목적우리 경제는 ‘개방경제’라고 불리기에 손색이 없다. 막대한 무역규모와 함께, 1997~98년 외환위기 이후에는 자본시장도 대폭 개방되었다. 이와 같은 개방은, 한편으로 우리 경제의...
2 경제 세계화와 우리 경제의 위기대응역량발발했음에도 불구하고 우리 경제는 비교적 순탄하게 위기를 극복한 것으로 보인다. 이러한 결과가 발생하게 된 원인이 본 연구보고서의 핵심주제이다.본고의 분석 결과는 세계 경제위기 ...
총론 및 요약 3기여했던 요인이었음은 분명하나, 보다 장기적인 관점에서는 우리 경제의 위기대응능력에 부담이 되는 요인으로 작용할 가능성을 배제하기 어렵다. 여전히 증가세를 보이고 있는 가계부채, 지체되고 있는 부실부문구...
4 경제 세계화와 우리 경제의 위기대응역량의 심각성이 어느 정도였는지를 가늠해 보았다. 이와 더불어 2008~09년에 발생했던 우리나라 경제위기의 강도를 여타 국가들과 비교해 봄으로써 우리나라 경제위기에 대한 상대적 위...
총론 및 요약 5위기 중의 급속한 자금유출을 일반적인 거시경제적 요인들만으로 완전히 설명할 수는 없으나, 대출국의 금리 및 단기외채비율, 차입국의 경제성장률 및 단기외채비율, 차입국의 자본시장 자유화 정도 등이 국가 간...
6 경제 세계화와 우리 경제의 위기대응역량상대국들에 비해 상대적으로 빠르지는 않았던 것으로 나타나나, 이와같은 구조 변화는 중국의 내수회복이 우리나라의 수출을 빠르게 회복시키는 데에 기여하였던 것으로 평가된다.4. 고용...
총론 및 요약 7심해질 수 있으므로, 금융기관 및 기업의 재무건전성이 유지되도록 정책을 운영하는 것이 중요한 것으로 해석될 수 있다. 또한 고용이 수출보다 내수에 민감하다는 점을 감안하여 내수의 안정적 유지를 위한 정책...
8 경제 세계화와 우리 경제의 위기대응역량150% 수준인 것으로 나타나며, 여전히 부채비율이 높은 기업들이 다수존재하고 있다. 둘째, 10~11% 수준의 현금보유비율은 여전히 선진 기업들에 비해서는 다소 낮은 수준인 것...
총론 및 요약 97. 금융기관 건전성과 외부충격의 파급기업부문과 가계부문에 이어 제7장에서는 금융기관의 건전성을 살펴보았다. 특히 신흥국에 있어서는 금융기관의 건전성이 대외충격에 따른금융위기의 파급을 제어하는 데 매우 ...
10 경제 세계화와 우리 경제의 위기대응역량8. 통화정책제8장에서는 통화정책을 중심으로 우리 경제의 위기극복을 위해 실시되었던 정책조치들의 핵심적 내용들을 정리하고 초저금리 통화정책기조가 우리 경제의 회복에 기여한 정도...
총론 및 요약 11시변수의 동태적 변화는 다음과 같이 추정되었다. 우선 감세효과를 제외한 순수한 재정지출의 일시적 증가로 인한 실질GDP 성장률 제고효과는 2009년에 1.1%p, 2010년에 0.3%p 정도로 나타났다...
12 경제 세계화와 우리 경제의 위기대응역량책과 관련해서는, 개념상 단기적인 금융안정을 포괄할 수 있는 중기적인 물가안정을 목표로 하는 물가안정목표제도를 유지하되 물가안정 목표의 기간은 현재의 1년에 비해 장기화하는 한...
제1부세계 경제위기와 우리 경제
제1장세계 경제위기와 우리 경제1)조 동 철 (KDI 국제정책대학원)김 현 욱 (SK 경영연구소)제1절 서 론흔히 우리 경제를 ‘소규모 개방경제’라고 칭한다. 1960년대 이후 이루어진 경제성장의 결과, 이제 그 규모가...
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
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Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment

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Title (in Korean): 경제 세계화와 우리 경제의 위기대응역량
Title (in English): Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment
Material Type: Report
Authors: Dong Chul, Cho (조동철); Hyun Wook, Kim (김현욱)
Publisher: Korea Development Institute (KDI), Seoul
Date: 2011-11
Series Title & No.: Research Report (연구보고서) / 2011-03
ISBN: 978-89-8063-587-0
Pages: 456
Subject Country: South Korea (Asia and Pacific)
Language: Korean
File Type: Documents
Original Format: pdf
Subject: Economy, Macroeconomics
Holding: Korea Development Institute (KDI); KDI School of Public Policy and Management

Published in: News & Politics
  • Abstract:



    Korea is an 'open economy' in all respects. Korea is well known for its active involvement in international trade for long, and has almost completely opened the financial market since the 1997~1998 crisis. This openness has served as an important factor to strengthen the Korean economy on the one hand, but also made Korea more reliant to external environment on the other. In fact, the Korean economy has been significantly influenced by the fluctuations of other countries' demand conditions, the global financial market, and international oil prices. No doubt that the 2008~2009 global crisis was a formidable shock to the Korean economy that is so susceptible to the changes in external environment. During the crisis, most of the advanced countries experienced negative growth, resulting in a great contraction in the demand for Korea's exports. The international financial market also experienced a terrifying panic, inducing a drastic capital outflow from Korea. The currency value collapsed and economic activities were shrunk. Indeed, a typical pattern of economic crisis was manifested in Korea. However, Korea overcame the global crisis more successfully than other countries, which was particularly contrasting to the 1997~1998 crisis when Korea miserably suffered despite the cruise of the global economy. What are the main factors that made the recent success possible? The analyses of this book show that the progress in economic restructuring achieved since the 1997~1998 crisis was the most important factor for the successful recovery of Korea during the recent global crisis. Examples of such restructuring achievements include the improvement in financial soundness of firms and financial institutions, the maintenance of sound public finance, the expansion of foreign reserves, and the relatively mild housing price bubbles. These improvement in economic fundamentals of Korea played crucial roles in keeping the adverse global shocks from proliferating into the internal financial markets of Korea. The flexible and timely responses of macroeconomic policies also greatly contributed to absorbing the shocks. In particular, the expansionary stances taken by fiscal and monetary authorities were quite contrasting to the contractionary policies during the 1997~1998 crisis. The foreign exchange policy that did not waste foreign reserves to defend a certain level of the exchange rate was also helpful for the early recovery of economic activities as well as the mitigation of the deflationary pressures from abroad.



    Considering these, it seems difficult to conclude that external shocks are the most important factors to determine economic fluctuations of Korea. The two contrasting experiences --- the 1997~1998 crisis when the whole economy was melt down by relatively mild external shocks, and the recent crisis when the economic resilience was maintained despite the enormous global shocks --- loudly speak how crucial internal fundamentals are for maintaining economic stability in Korea. In this respect, it is now re-emphasized that the sound pre-crisis fundamentals should not be impaired. Unlike many advanced countries, Korea did not experience serious de-leveraging or asset price collapse over the course of the recent crisis. This was clearly a factor that helped Korea to recover early, but will possibly become a factor that lays a burden on Korea's capacity to cope with a crisis in the long run. The potential risks of the Korean economy that we should be alert to at the moment seem to include still-increasing household debts, delayed restructuring of troubled firms and financial institutions, gradually expanding inflation, and social laxity about fiscal discipline.
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Korea's Capacity to Cope with Crises in a Globalized Environment

  1. 1. 연구보고서 2011-03경제 세계화와 우리 경제의위기대응역량조 동 철․김 현 욱 편
  2. 2. 발 간 사2008년 9월 리먼브라더스의 파산보호 신청과 함께 전 세계 금융시장은 공황상태에 빠져 들었다. 미국을 비롯한 선진국들의 주택가격이 폭락하였고 눈덩이처럼 불어나는 부실채권에 눌려 금융시장은 자금공급기능을 상실하였으며, 세계경제는 대공황 이래 최대의 위기 국면으로치달았다.수출 및 금융 양 측면에서 모두 세계경제와 긴밀한 관계를 맺고 있는 우리 경제가 이와 같은 세계경제의 위기 국면에서 자유로울 수는 없었다. 극심한 자금유출과 함께 환율이 치솟고 주가가 폭락하였다. 세계경제가 급락하는 과정에서 우리나라의 수출 급락은 피할 수 없는 현상이었다. 실물경제의 위축이 가시화되면서 1997~98년 외환위기의 악몽이되살아나는 듯했다.그러나 2008년 4/4분기의 혼란은 2009년 2/4분기 이후 점차 진정되기시작하였으며, 경제도 회복의 탄력을 받기 시작하였다. 결국 우리 경제는 외환위기 때와 같은 정도의 극심한 고통을 겪지 않고 위기를 극복할수 있었으며, 다른 나라에 비해서도 비교적 견실한 성과를 창출할 수 있었다.KDI는 이와 같은 위기극복 과정을 되짚어 봄으로써 우리 경제의 위기대응역량을 평가하고 정책적 함의를 도출해내기 위해 본 대표공동과제를 추진하게 되었다. 본 과제에서는 우선, 주요 거시경제지표들을 중심으로 최근 우리나라의 경제위기를 1997~98년 외환위기 및 여타 경제들과 비교하고(제1부: 세계 경제위기와 우리 경제), 최근의 세계 경제위기가 우리나라에 전파되는 경로를 금융․무역․고용시장의 관점에서분석하였다(제2부: 세계 경제위기의 파급). 이어서 이와 같은 외부 충격을 견딜 수 있는 우리 경제 내부의 기초여건을 기업․가계․금융기관의부문별로 점검하고(제3부: 우리 경제 내부의 기초여건), 마지막으로 최근 경제위기를 겪으면서 취해졌던 통화․재정정책을 돌아보고 향후 위
  3. 3. 기대응을 원활히 하기 위한 정책방향에 대해 살펴보았다(제4부: 정책대응과 향후 정책방향).본 보고서는 KDI 정책대학원의 조동철 교수와 최근SK경영연구소로자리를 옮긴 김현욱 박사가 본원에 근무할 당시에 기획하였다. 연구진으로는 본원의 김동석, 김성태, 김영일, 신석하, 이재준, 이한규 박사가참여하였으며, 이시욱 명지대학교 교수, 이항용 한양대학교 교수, 함준호 연세대학교 교수, 홍기석 이화대학교 교수가 집필진으로 참여하였다.본 보고서의 저자들은 연구의 과정에서 자문, 조언, 격려를 아끼지 않으신 본원의 김주훈 부원장, 고영선 연구본부장, 조병구 경영지원본부장과보고서의 질을 높이는 데 큰 도움을 주신 익명의 심사자들에게 심심한감사를 드린다. 또한 본 연구가 성공적으로 수행될 수 있도록 연구 및행정 지원서비스를 제공한 본원의 박지원, 이상규, 정성진 연구원, 조미경 연구행정원에게도 깊이 감사하고 있다.아무쪼록 우리나라의 경제 및 금융 분야 관련 정책당국자, 금융기관임직원, 기업가 그리고 연구자들이 우리나라의 거시경제 상황을 이해하고 적절한 정책을 수립하는 데 본 보고서가 유용하게 활용될 수 있기를희망한다. 특히 남유럽 사태와 관련하여 세계경제에 불확실성이 고조되고, 우리나라의 위기대응능력이 다시 시험받고 있는 상황에서 본 보고서가 출간된 것은 의미 있는 일이라고 생각된다.끝으로 본 보고서의 내용은 저자들의 의견이며, 본원의 공식견해가아님을 밝혀둔다.2011년 10월한국개발연구원 원장현 오 석
  4. 4. 목 차발간사총론 및 요약 ······················································································· 1제1부 세계 경제위기와 우리 경제제1장 세계 경제위기와 우리 경제 (조동철․김현욱) ····················· 15제1절 서 론 ·················································································· 15제2절 세계 경제위기의 발발과 우리 경제 ····································· 17제3절 1997~98년과의 비교 ···························································· 19제4절 외국과의 비교 ····································································· 251. 금융시장 지표 ······································································· 262. 실물경제 지표 ······································································· 323. 거시경제정책 ········································································ 39제5절 요약 및 결론 ······································································ 43참고문헌 ························································································· 45제2부 세계 경제위기의 파급제2장 금융시장을 통한 외부충격의 파급 (이항용․홍기석) ·········· 49제1절 서 론 ·················································································· 49
  5. 5. 제2절 글로벌 금융위기와 외화유동성 부족 ··································· 511. 자본유출 ··············································································· 512. 대외채무 ··············································································· 563. 외채증가의 국내적 배경 ························································ 61제3절 금융의 국제화와 국내 금융시장 ·········································· 641. 주식시장 ··············································································· 652. 은행대출 ··············································································· 70제4절 국가 간 자본이동의 결정요인 분석 ····································· 741. 추정모형의 설정과 기초통계량 ············································ 762. 추정 결과 ············································································ 783. 금융위기와 우리나라의 경험 ··············································· 834. 자본 자유화와 자본이동의 변동성 ······································· 85제5절 금융경로를 통한 해외위기의 파급 ······································· 871. 추정모형 ·············································································· 882. 추정 결과 ············································································ 90제6절 결 론 ·················································································· 92참고문헌 ························································································· 95부록 1: 해외의 위기사례와 국내 금융시장 ······································ 98부록 2: 외환위기 관련 계량분석 문헌 ··········································· 102제3장 국제금융위기와 우리나라의 수출구조 (이한규․이시욱) ··· 105제1절 서 론 ················································································ 105제2절 국제금융위기 시 수출 급락의 원인 분석 ··························· 1071. 내구재의 구성효과 가설 ······················································ 1092. 국제공급체계 가설 ······························································· 1183. 무역신용 가설 ····································································· 121
  6. 6. 4. 소 결 ··················································································· 124제3절 중국 내수경기와 우리나라 수출의 연관성 ························· 1261. 분석의 배경 ········································································· 1262. 중국 수입구조 변화의 주요 특징 ········································· 1283. 경제위기 전후의 우리나라 대중 수출구조 변화 ··················· 1344. 소 결 ··················································································· 141제4절 요약 및 시사점 ································································· 144참고문헌 ······················································································· 148부 록 ···························································································· 151제4장 고용시장으로의 파급 (신석하․조동철) ······························· 153제1절 배 경 ················································································ 153제2절 성장률과 고용조정 ···························································· 155제3절 수요 구성 ·········································································· 161제4절 기대 및 금융경색 요인과 고용 ·········································· 163제5절 민간부문과 공공부문의 고용 ············································· 167제6절 OECD 국가들과의 비교 ····················································· 170제7절 요약 및 시사점 ································································· 174참고문헌 ······················································································· 176부 록 ···························································································· 177제3부 우리 경제 내부의 기초여건제5장 기업부문 건전성과 경제위기 (김동석) ······························· 181제1절 서 론 ················································································ 181
  7. 7. 제2절 기존 연구 ·········································································· 184제3절 통계자료에 대한 설명 ······················································· 186제4절 재무건전성 ········································································ 1901. 부채비율 ·············································································· 1902. 현금보유비율 ······································································· 205제5절 외화 관리 ·········································································· 212제6절 결 론 ················································································ 224참고문헌 ······················································································· 227부 록 ···························································································· 229제6장 가계부문 건전성과 경제위기 (김영일) ······························· 231제1절 서 론 ················································································ 231제2절 가계부문 건전성과 위기대응력 ·········································· 2341. 가계부문 건전성과 거시경제의 안정성에 관한 논의 ············ 2342. 민간소비의 회복과 가계부문의 건전성 ································ 236제3절 가계부문의 재무건전성에 대한 평가 ································· 2381. 우리나라 가계부채의 현황과 위험성 ···································· 2382. 부채상환능력에 기초한 취약부채가구 현황 ·························· 2503. 가구별 부채위험의 고착화 정도 분석 ·································· 2554. 대출의 구조적 특징에 따른 가계부채의 위험성 ··················· 258제4절 주택가격의 안정성과 효과에 대한 논의 ···························· 2601. 주택가격 안정의 중요성에 대한 논의 ·································· 2602. 우리나라 주택가격의 상대적 안정 원인과 효과 ··················· 264제5절 요약과 정책적 시사점 ······················································· 2671. 요약 및 평가 ······································································· 2672. 정책적 시사점에 대한 추가적 논의 ····································· 269
  8. 8. 참고문헌 ······················································································· 271제7장 금융기관 건전성과 외부충격의 파급 (함준호․김현욱) ····· 273제1절 신흥시장국과 금융위기 ······················································ 2731. 신흥시장국 금융위기의 파급경로 ········································· 2742. 2008년 글로벌 금융위기의 특성 ·········································· 276제2절 1997년과 2008년 위기 시의 국내 금융기관 건전성 비교 ··· 2771. 외환위기 당시 국내 금융기관 건전성 ·································· 2772. 글로벌 금융위기 당시 국내 금융기관 건전성 ······················ 2843. 평가 및 소결 ······································································· 291제3절 금융기관 건전성과 외부충격의 파급: 실증분석 ················· 2931. 분석모형 및 자료 ································································ 2932. 실증분석 결과 ····································································· 299제4절 결론 및 정책시사점 ··························································· 302참고문헌 ······················································································· 304제4부 정책대응과 향후 정책방향제8장 통화정책 (김현욱․이재준) ··················································· 309제1절 서 론 ················································································ 309제2절 위기 이전의 우리 경제와 통화정책 ··································· 3101. 2000년대 중반의 경제상황과 통화정책 ································ 3102. 위기 이전의 통화정책에 대한 평가 ····································· 315제3절 위기극복을 위한 통화정책 ················································· 3241. 위기 발생 초기의 통화정책 대응 ········································· 324
  9. 9. 2. 저금리 통화정책기조의 본격화 ············································ 3273. 저금리 통화정책기조의 효과 ··············································· 328제4절 향후 통화정책 방향 ··························································· 336참고문헌 ······················································································· 339부 록: 거시계량모형의 주요 방정식의 추정 결과 ·························· 340제9장 재정정책 (김성태) ································································ 343제1절 서 론 ················································································ 343제2절 금융위기 이전의 재정정책 여건 ········································ 3441. 우리나라의 재정건전성 및 기초 재정여건 ··························· 3442. 기초 재정여건에 따른 경기회복 추이 ·································· 347제3절 위기극복을 위한 재정정책 ················································· 3511. 금융위기에 대응한 재정정책의 개요 ···································· 3512. 금융위기에 대응한 재정정책의 구체적 내용 ························ 354제4절 확장적 재정정책의 성과 분석 ············································ 3601. 일시적 재정지출 증가만을 고려한 경우 ······························· 3642. 일시적 재정지출 증가 및 감세를 고려하는 경우 ················· 3703. 확정적 재정정책에 따른 재정건전성의 변화 ························ 376제5절 요약 및 정책적 시사점 ······················································ 378참고문헌 ······················································································· 381제10장 향후 정책방향 (조동철․김현욱) ········································ 383제1절 서 론 ················································································ 383제2절 재정정책 ··········································································· 3851. 총량적 차원의 재정규율 강화 ·············································· 3862. 재정지출 구조조정 ······························································· 3873. 안정적 세원 확보 ································································ 389
  10. 10. 4. 준재정부문의 관리 강화 ······················································ 390제3절 통화정책 ··········································································· 391제4절 외환정책 ··········································································· 3951. 적정 외환보유고 논의 ·························································· 3962. 환율의 신축성 유지 ····························································· 4003. 단기외채 증가의 억제 ·························································· 4034. 국제적 공조노력의 강화 ······················································ 404제5절 금융감독 ··········································································· 404제6절 요약 및 결론 ····································································· 408참고문헌 ······················································································· 411ABSTRACT ··················································································· 413
  11. 11. 표 목 차<표 1- 1> 주가 ····································································································· 27<표 1- 2> 대달러 환율 ························································································· 28<표 1- 3> GDP 대비 외환보유액 ·········································································· 29<표 1- 4> 주요국의 수출증가율 ··········································································· 33<표 1- 5> 주요국의 GDP 대비 경상수지 비율 ······················································ 35<표 1- 6> 주요국의 경제성장률 ··········································································· 36<표 1- 7> 주요국의 실업률 ·················································································· 37<표 1- 8> 주요국의 인플레이션율 ········································································ 38<표 1- 9> 주요국의 정책금리 ··············································································· 40<표 1-10> 주요국의 GDP 대비 재정수지 ······························································ 41<표 1-11> 주요국의 GDP 대비 정부부채 ······························································ 42<표 2- 1> 외화순유출과 국제수지 ········································································ 53<표 2- 2> 조선회사의 선박수주 및 선물환매도 규모 ··········································· 62<표 2- 3> 해외증권투자 및 선물환매도 규모 ······················································· 62<표 2- 4> 외은지점과 외국인의 (순)국내채권투자 추이 ······································· 64<표 2- 5> 외국인의 주식투자한도 확대 내역 ······················································· 66<표 2- 6> 은행의 해외대출자산 증가율 추이(연평균) ··········································· 71<표 2- 7> 한국에 대한 대출자산의 국가별 증가율 및 구성비 ······························ 72<표 2- 8> 거시지표의 평균 ·················································································· 78<표 2- 9> 추정 결과(전체 표본기간) ···································································· 79<표 2-10> 추정 결과: 전체 표본기간과 위기기간의 비교 ····································· 81<표 2-11> 금융위기 시 대출 증가율의 실제치와 추정치(2008년 3/4 및 4/4) ········· 83<표 2-12> 추정식 (2)의 분해 ················································································ 84<표 2-13> 추정식 (8)의 분해 ················································································ 84<표 2-14> 자본시장 자유화와 자본이동의 변동성 ················································ 87<표 2-15> 선진국에서 개도국으로의 위기 전파 ···················································· 91
  12. 12. <부표 2-1> 외환위기 관련 계량분석 결과 요약 ···················································· 102<표 3- 1> 국가별 실질수출 증가율에 대한 회귀분석 결과 ································· 114<표 3- 2> Extensive Margin: 수출상품 수 ···························································· 119<표 3- 3> Intensive Margin: 단위상품당 수출액 ··················································· 120<표 3- 4> 우리나라 총수출 대비 주요 시장별 수출액 비중 변화 추이 ··············· 126<표 3- 5> 상품유형별 경제위기 전후의 중국 수입증가율(연간 증가율) ·············· 130<표 3- 6> 기업유형별․무역형태별 중국의 대세계 수입 구성 ···························· 133<표 3- 7> 상품유형별 우리나라 대중 수출비중 ·················································· 136<표 3- 8> 무역형태별․상품유형별 우리나라 대중 수출비중 ······························ 138<표 3- 9> 무역형태별․상품유형별 주요국의 대중 수출비중 ······························ 140<표 3-10> 기업유형별․무역형태별 우리나라 대중 수출비중 ······························ 141<표 3-11> 기업유형별․무역형태별 주요국의 대중 수출비중 ······························ 142<부표 3-1> UN의 BEC code와 내구재 여부 분류 ················································· 151<부표 3-2> 무역형태별 분류방식 ·········································································· 152<표 4- 1> 고용증가율 회귀분석 결과 ································································· 164<표 4- 2> 실업률갭 회귀분석 결과 ····································································· 165<표 4- 3> 경제위기 기간 정부 일자리대책의 월평균 수혜자 ······························ 168<표 4- 4> 금융위기 기간 고용변화 회귀분석 결과: OECD국가, 2007~09년 ········· 173<부표 4-1> 단위근 검정 결과 ··············································································· 177<부표 4-2> 고용-GDP 공적분 검정 결과 ······························································· 178<표 5- 1> 통계자료 요약 ···················································································· 189<표 5- 2> 자본의 구성 ······················································································· 194<표 5- 3> 부채의 구성 ······················································································· 195<표 5- 4> 산업별 부채비율 ················································································· 200<표 5- 5> 기초통계량 ························································································· 202<표 5- 6> 패널모형 추정 결과 ··········································································· 203<표 5- 7> 산업별 파생상품 자산, 부채 및 순이익 ·············································· 222<표 6- 1> 전체 가구의 소득분위별 부채 관련 현황(2009년) ······························· 242<표 6- 2> 부채보유가구의 소득분위별 부채 관련 현황(2009년) ·························· 243<표 6- 3> 전체 가구의 소비분위별 부채 관련 현황(2009년) ······························· 244
  13. 13. <표 6- 4> 부채보유가구의 소비분위별 부채 관련 현황(2009년) ·························· 245<표 6- 5> 소득분위별 담보 및 신용대출의 대출기관별 비중 ······························ 249<표 6- 6> 취약부채가구비율, 취약부채비율, 잠재손실비율 ································· 255<표 6- 7> 소득 대비 부채비율을 기준으로 한 이전행렬(2005~08년) ··················· 256<표 6- 8> 소득 대비 부채비율을 기준으로 한 이전행렬(2008~09년) ··················· 257<표 6- 9> 소득 대비 부채상환비율을 기준으로 한 이전행렬(2005~08년) ············ 257<표 6-10> 소득 대비 부채상환비율을 기준으로 한 이전행렬(2008~09년) ············ 257<표 6-11> 부채상환여력을 기준으로 한 이전행렬(2005~08년) ····························· 258<표 6-12> 부채상환여력을 기준으로 한 이전행렬(2008~09년) ····························· 258<표 6-13> 담보 및 신용 대출의 상환방법별 비중 ··············································· 259<표 6-14> 실질민간소비에 대한 장기식 추정 결과 ············································· 264<표 7- 1> 외환위기 당시 국내 일반은행의 자산건전성 및 자본적정성 ··············· 279<표 7- 2> 외환위기 당시 일반은행의 외화통화표시 부채 ··································· 282<표 7- 3> 글로벌 금융위기 이전 국내 은행의 외화유동성비율 ··························· 289<표 7- 4> 채권자별 은행부채의 경기순응성 ······················································· 291<표 7- 5> IMF FSI 서베이 국가 리스트 ····························································· 294<표 7- 6> 금융기관 건전성과 위기파급 심도 회귀분석 결과(OLS) ····················· 300<표 7- 7> 금융기관 건전성과 위기회복 소요기간 회귀분석 결과(OLS) ··············· 301<표 8- 1> 글로벌 금융위기 발생 이후 금융시장 안정을 위한 정책대응 ············· 326<표 8- 2> 통화정책효과: 기준금리 1%p 인하(1년간) ··········································· 331<표 8- 3> 위기기간 통화정책의 효과 ································································· 333<부표 8-1> 변수일람표 ························································································· 340<표 9- 1> 주요국의 확장적 재정정책 규모 ························································· 352<표 9- 2> 주요국의 확장적 재정정책 규모 ························································· 353<표 9- 3> 2008~09년 추경 및 수정예산의 주요 지출확대 내용 ·························· 356<표 9- 4> 통합재정 지출 및 순융자 집행실적 추이(누적 기준) ·························· 357<표 9- 5> 2008년 세제개편 주요 내용 ································································ 358<표 9- 6> 2008년 세제개편안에 따른 감세규모 ·················································· 359<표 9- 7> 2009년 세제개편 주요 내용 ································································ 360<표 9- 8> 투자성 지출 10조원 증가의 거시경제 파급효과 ································· 362
  14. 14. <표 9- 9> 소비성 지출 10조원 증가의 거시경제 파급효과 ································· 362<표 9-10> 소득보조성 지출 10조원 증가의 거시경제 파급효과 ··························· 363<표 9-11> 금융위기 이후 일시적 재정지출 증가분 ············································· 365<표 9-12> 재정지출 유형에 따른 일시적 재정확대 규모(감세 제외) ··················· 367<표 9-13> 재정지출 유형에 따른 일시적 재정확대 규모(감세 포함) ··················· 371<표 9-14> 금융위기에 대응한 재정지출 및 감세의 성장률 제고효과 ·················· 372<표 9-15> 실질 GDP 성장률 증가의 요인별 분해 ··············································· 373<표 9-16> 주요국의 국가채무 ············································································· 377<표 10- 1> 국세감면 추이 ···················································································· 390<표 10- 2> 주요 공기업의 재무현황 ····································································· 391
  15. 15. 그 림 목 차[그림 1- 1] 원/달러 환율과 주가지수 ···································································· 18[그림 1- 2] 수출 ··································································································· 18[그림 1- 3] 시점별 IMF의 2009년도 한국 경제성장률 전망 ·································· 19[그림 1- 4] 실질 GDP(계절조정) ··········································································· 21[그림 1- 5] 원/달러 환율과 주가지수 ···································································· 21[그림 1- 6] 민간소비와 상품수출 ·········································································· 22[그림 1- 7] 설비투자와 건설투자 ·········································································· 22[그림 1- 8] 어음부도율 및 부실채권비율 ······························································ 23[그림 1- 9] 콜금리 ································································································ 24[그림 1-10] 실업률과 취업자 수 증가율 ································································ 25[그림 1-11] 주요국의 주가(2008년 6월 말 대비 상승률) ······································· 27[그림 1-12] 주요국의 환율(2008년 6월 말 대비 상승률) ······································· 28[그림 1-13] 2008~10년의 GDP 대비 외환보유액(월별 자료) ·································· 29[그림 1-14] 주요국의 부실채권비율 ······································································ 31[그림 1-15] 소득 대비 주택가격 ··········································································· 32[그림 1-16] 주요국의 2009~10년 수출증가율 ························································· 33[그림 1-17] 주요국의 2009~10년 GDP 대비 경상수지 비율 ··································· 35[그림 1-18] 주요국의 2009~10년 성장률 ······························································· 36[그림 1-19] 주요국의 2007년 대비 2009년 실업률 상승폭 ····································· 37[그림 1-20] 주요국의 2008~09년의 인플레이션율 ·················································· 38[그림 1-21] 주요국의 2008~10년 정책금리 ···························································· 40[그림 1-22] 주요국의 2009~10년 GDP 대비 재정수지 ··········································· 41[그림 1-23] 주요국의 2010년 정부부채 ································································· 42[그림 2- 1] 환율과 CDS 프리미엄 ········································································ 51[그림 2- 2] 외화자본유출 규모 ············································································· 53[그림 2- 3] 국제수지표상의 증권투자(부채)와 차입금 추이 ·································· 54
  16. 16. [그림 2- 4] 총외채 및 단기외채 규모 ··································································· 57[그림 2- 5] 외은지점과 국내 은행 간의 외화차입금 흐름 ····································· 58[그림 2- 6] 은행부문의 대외채권 및 대외채무 ····················································· 60[그림 2- 7] 외국인 주식투자비중 추이(KOSPI시장, 시가총액 기준) ······················ 66[그림 2- 8] 국가별 주가상승률 간의 상관계수 추이 ············································· 68[그림 2- 9] 주가와 환율 간의 상관계수 ································································ 69[그림 3- 1] 내구재 수출비중과 실질수출 증가율: 2008년 4/4분기~2009년 1/4분기111[그림 3- 2] 내구재 수출비중과 수출증가율: 2001년 4/4분기 ······························· 112[그림 3- 3] 2000년 이후 우리나라와 일본의 실질환율 추이 ······························· 112[그림 3- 4] 수출 및 수입의 내구재 구성비율 ····················································· 116[그림 3- 5] 내구재 및 비내구재의 수출증가율 추이 ··········································· 117[그림 3- 6] 내구재 및 비내구재의 전체 수출에 대한 기여도 추이 ····················· 117[그림 3- 7] 국내 은행의 무역신용 추이 ······························································ 122[그림 3- 8] 수출어음 할인율 및 신용 스프레드 ·················································· 124[그림 3- 9] 우리나라 주요 시장별 수출증가율 ···················································· 127[그림 3-10] 중국의 대세계 수입증가율 ································································ 128[그림 3-11] 상품유형별 중국의 대세계 수입 구성비 ··········································· 129[그림 3-12] 무역형태별 중국의 대세계 수입 구성비 ··········································· 131[그림 3-13] 중국의 대세계 수입증가율 추이: 일반무역형 vs 가공무역형 ·············· 132[그림 3-14] 중국의 기업유형별 대세계 수입 구성 ··············································· 133[그림 3-15] 2008~10년 기간 중 주요국별 대중국 수출증가율 ······························ 135[그림 3-16] 주요국별 최근 대중국 수출변화율 추이 ··········································· 137[그림 3-17] 주요 상품유형별 우리나라 대중 수출증가율(연간) ···························· 139[그림 4- 1] 경제위기와 고용 ··············································································· 154[그림 4- 2] 성장률과 고용증가율, 실업률 증감 ··················································· 156[그림 4- 3] 실제 총고용의 장기균형수준으로부터의 괴리 ··································· 158[그림 4- 4] 고용증가율 예측오차: 성장률 ··························································· 159[그림 4- 5] 실업률갭 예측오차: 성장률 ······························································· 161[그림 4- 6] 경제위기 기간 소비비중의 변화 ······················································· 162[그림 4- 7] 고용증가율 예측오차: 소비비중, 어음부도율과 CSI ·························· 166[그림 4- 8] 실업률갭 예측오차: 소비비중, 어음부도율과 CSI ······························ 167
  17. 17. [그림 4- 9] 경제위기와 고용: 민간부문 vs. 공공부문 ·········································· 168[그림 4-10] OECD 국가의 고용증가율 변화 ························································ 171[그림 4-11] OECD 국가의 실업률 변화 ······························································· 171[그림 5- 1] 부채비율 ··························································································· 190[그림 5- 2] 부채총계 및 자본총계 증가분 ·························································· 191[그림 5- 3] 투자총액 및 종업원 수 ····································································· 192[그림 5- 4] 자본의 구성 ····················································································· 194[그림 5- 5] 부채의 구성 ····················································································· 195[그림 5- 6] 부채비율의 분포 ··············································································· 198[그림 5- 7] 산업별 부채비율 ··············································································· 200[그림 5- 8] 현금보유비율 ···················································································· 206[그림 5- 9] 현금성자산 보유규모 ········································································ 207[그림 5-10] 현금보유비율의 분포 ········································································ 208[그림 5-11] 현금성자산 규모별 현금보유비율 ····················································· 209[그림 5-12] 현금성자산 보유액 대비 투자총액 비율 ··········································· 210[그림 5-13] 투자율 국제비교 ··············································································· 211[그림 5-14] 현금성자산 규모별 현금성자산 보유액 대비 투자총액 비율 ············· 211[그림 5-15] 외화부채 ··························································································· 213[그림 5-16] 외화자산 ··························································································· 213[그림 5-17] 부채총계 대비 외화부채 및 자산총계 대비 외화자산 비중 ··············· 214[그림 5-18] 외화 순부채 ····················································································· 215[그림 5-19] 외화자산 대비 외화부채 비율 ·························································· 215[그림 5-20] 순외환손익 ······················································································· 216[그림 5-21] 매출액 대비 순외환손익, 당기순이익 및 영업이익 비율 ··················· 217[그림 5-22] 외화부채의 산업별 구성 ··································································· 218[그림 5-23] 외화자산의 산업별 구성 ··································································· 218[그림 5-24] 산업별 외화자산 대비 외화부채 비율 ··············································· 219[그림 5-25] 파생상품 자산 및 부채 ····································································· 221[그림 5-26] 파생상품 손익 ·················································································· 221[그림 5-27] 개별재무제표와 연결재무제표를 이용한 부채비율 비교 ···················· 225[그림 6- 1] 개인부문 가처분소득 대비 금융부채와 GDP 대비 금융부채 ············· 235
  18. 18. [그림 6- 2] GDP 증가율과 민간소비 증가율 ······················································· 235[그림 6- 3] 민간소비 증가율에 대한 각 형태별 소비의 기여도 ·························· 237[그림 6- 4] 개인처분가능소득 대비 민간소비지출 ··············································· 238[그림 6- 5] 개인처분가능소득과 개인금융부채의 증가율 ····································· 239[그림 6- 6] 주요국의 소득 대비 가계부채 추이 ·················································· 239[그림 6- 7] 개인부문의 금융부채․금융자산 증가율 및 금융자산 대비 금융부채비율 ································································································· 240[그림 6- 8] 국가별 개인금융자산 대비 개인금융부채 비율 ································· 240[그림 6- 9] 가계부채의 연체율 추이 ··································································· 241[그림 6-10] 소득분위별 금융기관부채 보유 분포의 변화 ····································· 246[그림 6-11] 소득분위별 총자산 보유 분포의 변화 ··············································· 246[그림 6-12] 소득분위별 부채비율(부채/소득)의 변화 추이 ··································· 247[그림 6-13] 소비분위별 부채비율(부채/소비)의 변화 추이 ··································· 247[그림 6-14] 소득분위별 부채상환비율(부채상환액/소득)의 변화 추이 ·················· 247[그림 6-15] 소비분위별 부채상환비율(부채상환액/소비)의 변화 추이 ·················· 248[그림 6-16] 금융기관별 가계대출 증가율 추이 ···················································· 248[그림 6-17] 금융기관별 주택담보대출 연체율 ····················································· 249[그림 6-18] 소득 대비 부채상환부담(DSR)의 분포 변화: 미국 vs. 캐나다 ··········· 250[그림 6-19] 소득 대비 부채비율(DIR)이 높은 부채가구의 비중 추이 ·················· 251[그림 6-20] 소득 대비 부채상환비율(DSR)이 높은 부채가구의 비중 추이 ··········· 251[그림 6-21] 소비 대비 부채비율(DCR)이 높은 부채가구의 비중 추이 ················· 252[그림 6-22] 소비 대비 부채상환비율(DSCR)이 높은 부채가구의 비중 추이 ········· 252[그림 6-23] 연도별 부채상환여력의 누적분포(Cumulative Distribution) ·················· 254[그림 6-24] 가계대출 중 변동금리 대출의 비중 추이 ·········································· 259[그림 6-25] 경제위기 전후 주택가격, 주택담보대출, GDP의 추이 ······················· 261[그림 6-26] 경제위기 전후 주택가격 변화와 가계대출 변화 ······························· 261[그림 6-27] 주택금융시장의 발달 정도와 주택자산에 대한 한계소비성향 ··········· 262[그림 6-28] GDP 대비 가계부채의 비중 추이 ····················································· 263[그림 6-29] 금융위기 전후 주택가격 상승과 하락 정도의 국가별 비교 ··············· 265[그림 6-30] 금융위기 전후 국내 주택가격 상승과 하락 정도의 지역별 비교 ······ 266[그림 7- 1] 외환위기 당시 기업부문 총여신 대비 잠재 부실여신 비율 ··············· 278
  19. 19. [그림 7- 2] 외환위기 당시 금융 및 은행부문 주가지수 추이 ······························ 280[그림 7- 3] 외환위기 당시 국내 은행의 원화 유동성 관련 지표 ························· 281[그림 7- 4] 외환위기 당시 은행부문의 대외부채와 단기외채 비중 ····················· 282[그림 7- 5] 국내 일반은행의 자기자본비율 추이 ················································ 284[그림 7- 6] 국내 일반은행의 연체율 및 고정 이하 여신비율 추이 ····················· 285[그림 7- 7] GDP 대비 민간신용비율과 신용과열 정도 ········································ 286[그림 7- 8] 국내 일반은행의 시장성 수신 비중과 예대율 추이 ·························· 287[그림 7- 9] 국내 은행의 대외채무와 단기외채 비중 ··········································· 288[그림 7-10] 외은지점의 대외채무와 단기외채 비중 ············································· 288[그림 7-11] 채권자(claim holder)별 은행부채 추이 ··············································· 291[그림 7-12] 국내 은행부문의 비핵심부채 비율과 원/달러 환율 ··························· 292[그림 7-13] 국가별 FSI 금융기관 건전성지표 ······················································ 295[그림 7-14] 국가별 주가 최대하락률과 회복 소요개월 수 ··································· 296[그림 7-15] 국가별 외환시장압력지수 최대상승률과 회복 소요개월 수 ··············· 297[그림 7-16] 국가별 외환보유액의 최대감소율과 회복 소요개월 수 ····················· 298[그림 7-17] 국가별 단기 기준금리 최대하락률과 회복 소요개월 수 ···················· 298[그림 8- 1] 국내총생산(GDP)과 국내총소득(GDI) ················································ 313[그림 8- 2] 소비자물가 상승률 ··········································································· 314[그림 8- 3] 주요국의 기준금리 ··········································································· 315[그림 8- 4] 우리나라의 자산가격 ········································································ 317[그림 8- 5] 실제 기준금리와 추정된 기준금리의 비교 ········································ 318[그림 8- 6] 명목 GDP 성장률과 M1 증가율의 격차와 자산가격 상승률 ············· 319[그림 8- 7] 명목 GDP 대비 M1 비율의 순환변동과 자산가격 상승률 ················· 320[그림 8- 8] 형태별 외국자본 유입(국제수지 기준) ·············································· 322[그림 8- 9] 단기유동성 증가율과 자산가격 상승률 ············································· 323[그림 8-10] 분석모형의 기본구성 ········································································ 329[그림 8-11] 거시계량모형의 기본구조 ································································· 331[그림 8-12] 확장적 통화정책에 대한 충격반응함수 ············································· 332[그림 8-13] 기준금리 추이와 정책효과 추정 ······················································· 334[그림 8-14] 소비자물가지수의 항목별 증가율 ····················································· 335[그림 8-15] 개인처분가능소득 대비 가계부채 ····················································· 336
  20. 20. [그림 9- 1] 우리나라의 국가채무 및 일반정부 채무 추이 ··································· 345[그림 9- 2] 주요국의 국가채무(2007년 말) ·························································· 346[그림 9- 3] 주요국의 일반정부 지출규모(2007년 말) ··········································· 347[그림 9- 4] 주요국의 국민부담률(2007년 말) ······················································· 347[그림 9- 5] 국가채무와 경제성장률 간의 회귀분석 결과 ····································· 348[그림 9- 6] 재정수지와 경제성장률 간의 회귀분석 결과 ····································· 350[그림 9- 7] 재정지출 확대의 분기별 실질 GDP 증가효과 ··································· 368[그림 9- 8] 분기별 재정지출 확대에 따른 부문별 효과 ······································ 369[그림 9- 9] 분기별 재정지출 확대 및 감세의 실질 GDP 증가효과 ····················· 372[그림 9-10] 분기별 재정지출 확대 및 감세에 따른 부문별 효과 ························· 375[그림 10- 1] 일반정부(중앙+지방)의 지출구조(2008년) ········································ 388[그림 10- 2] R&D 및 사회복지 지출 추이 ·························································· 389[그림 10- 3] 필요 및 실제 외환보유액 ································································ 399[그림 10- 4] 성장률과 실질실효환율 ··································································· 401[그림 10- 5] 주요국의 인플레이션율 ··································································· 402
  21. 21. 총론 및 요약제1절 연구의 배경 및 목적우리 경제는 ‘개방경제’라고 불리기에 손색이 없다. 막대한 무역규모와 함께, 1997~98년 외환위기 이후에는 자본시장도 대폭 개방되었다. 이와 같은 개방은, 한편으로 우리 경제의 체질을 강화시키고 생산성을 향상시켜 경제성장의 결정적인 밑거름으로 작용해 왔으나, 다른 한편으로는 우리 경제의 대외의존성을 심화시키는 요인으로 작용하기도 하였다.실제 우리 경제는 주변 국가의 경기변동에, 국제금융시장의 출렁거림에,그리고 국제유가의 등락에 항상 영향을 받아 왔다.이처럼 대외여건 변화에 민감한 우리 경제의 입장에서 볼 때, 2008~09년의 세계 경제위기는 실로 엄청난 충격이었다. 이 기간 중 대다수 선진국은 마이너스 성장을 기록하였고 실업률이 크게 상승하였으며, 그과정에서 우리나라의 수출은 급락하였다. 국제금융시장은 상상하기 어려울 정도의 충격에 따른 공황상태를 경험하였으며, 이 과정에서 우리나라 금융시장은 극심한 자본유출을 경험하였다. 통화가치가 급락하면서 경기가 위축되는 전형적인 경제위기의 모습이 나타나기 시작하였다.과연 우리 경제는 대외 충격에 크게 영향을 받는 모습을 연출하였던 것이다.그러나 현시점에서 돌이켜 볼 때, 우리 경제는 위기를 빠르게 극복한경제로 평가받고 있다. 특히 1997~98년에는 세계경제가 순항하였음에도불구하고 우리는 한국전쟁 이래 최대의 위기라는 경제위기를 경험했던반면, 최근에는 1929년 대공황 이래 가장 심각하다는 세계 경제위기가
  22. 22. 2 경제 세계화와 우리 경제의 위기대응역량발발했음에도 불구하고 우리 경제는 비교적 순탄하게 위기를 극복한 것으로 보인다. 이러한 결과가 발생하게 된 원인이 본 연구보고서의 핵심주제이다.본고의 분석 결과는 세계 경제위기 국면을 우리 경제가 비교적 잘견뎌낸 배경으로서 외환위기 이후의 적극적인 구조조정 성과가 자리하고 있음을 보여주고 있다. 외환보유고의 확충, 기업 및 금융기관의 재무구조 개선, 비교적 견실한 정부재정, 그리고 선진국에 비해 상대적으로훨씬 경미한 상태로 유지되었던 주택가격 거품 등은 세계 경제위기라는외부의 충격이 국내 경제로 파급․확산되지 않도록 하는 효과적인 완충장치로서의 역할을 충분히 수행하였다.아울러 재정․통화․환율정책의 신축적이고 시기적절한 대응도 위기를 완충하는 데에 크게 기여하였다. 위기 발생 직후 취해진 적극적인재정적자와 금리인하 등은 1997~98년 외환위기 당시와 매우 대조적인거시경제정책 운용이었다고 할 수 있으며, 이와 같은 정책들은 2007년까지 취해진 보수적인 재정․통화정책에 의해 축적된 정책여력이 있었기에 가능했던 것으로 보인다. 한편, 막대한 외환보유고에도 불구하고특정 환율수준을 방어하려는 정책보다는 환율의 신축성을 용인한 외환정책 방향도 경기회복 및 국내물가의 안정(디플레이션 압력의 해소)이라는 측면에서 상당한 도움을 준 것으로 보인다.이와 같은 측면들을 종합적으로 감안할 때, 외부충격이 우리 경제의모습을 결정하는 가장 중요한 요인이라고 보기는 어려운 듯하다. 비교적 작은 외부충격에도 경제 전체가 무너져 내렸던 1997~98년과 세계경제의 위기 속에서도 비교적 견실한 경제성과를 보인 두 번의 위기 경험은, 우리 경제 내부적 펀더멘털이 경제안정 유지를 위해 얼마나 중요한요인인지를 대변하고 있다.그러나 위기에서 회복한 현시점에서 오히려 강조해야 할 부분은2008년 위기가 발생하기 이전까지 양호했던 우리 경제의 펀더멘털이 손상되지 않도록 유지해야 한다는 점일지도 모른다. 극심한 위기를 겪어야 했던 많은 선진국들과는 대조적으로 우리 경제는 위기 국면에서도급격한 부채구조조정이나 자산가격 급락을 경험하지 않았다. 이와 같은부분들이 우리 경제를 단기간 내에 위기 국면에서 벗어나게 하는 데에
  23. 23. 총론 및 요약 3기여했던 요인이었음은 분명하나, 보다 장기적인 관점에서는 우리 경제의 위기대응능력에 부담이 되는 요인으로 작용할 가능성을 배제하기 어렵다. 여전히 증가세를 보이고 있는 가계부채, 지체되고 있는 부실부문구조조정, 확대되는 인플레이션, 재정건전성 훼손에 대한 사회적 경각심이완 등은 현시점에서 가장 경계해야 할 우리 경제의 잠재적 위험요인들인 것으로 보인다.제2절 개별 연구의 요약본 보고서는 총 10개의 장으로 구성되어 있다. 제1장에서는 주요 거시경제 변수들을 중심으로 최근 세계 경제위기 시의 우리 경제 모습을1997~98년 외환위기 시의 모습과 비교하는 한편, 여타 국가들의 경제상황과도 비교해 봄으로써 우리 경제에 도래한 위기의 강도가 상대적으로어느 정도였는지를 가늠해 보았다. 제2장, 제3장 및 제4장에서는 세계경제의 위기가 우리나라에 파급되었던 과정을 무역경로와 금융시장 경로라는 차원에서 각각 살펴보았으며, 이어 고용시장에 미쳤던 파급효과를살펴보았다. 다음으로 제5장, 제6장 및 제7장에서는 각각 기업, 가계 및금융기관 부문의 건전성이 위기의 파급 혹은 완충에 어떤 영향을 미쳤는지 살펴보았다. 마지막으로 금번 위기 국면에서 적극적으로 활용된통화정책과 재정정책의 역할에 대해 제8장과 제9장에서 살펴본 후, 제10장에서는 향후 바람직한 거시경제 정책방향에 대해 논의하였다. 이하에서는 각 장의 주요 연구 결과를 간략히 정리한다.1. 세계 경제위기와 우리 경제제1장은 최근의 우리나라 경제위기를 과연 어느 정도 심각한 위기로이해해야 할 것인가에 대해 살펴보았다. 이를 위해 우선 2008년 9월 리먼브라더스(Lehman Brothers)의 파산 이후 발생한 세계 금융시장의 공황상태에서 우리 경제가 얼마나 큰 충격을 받았었는지를 개략적으로나마되돌아보고, 1997~98년 외환위기 당시와의 비교를 통해 최근 경제위기
  24. 24. 4 경제 세계화와 우리 경제의 위기대응역량의 심각성이 어느 정도였는지를 가늠해 보았다. 이와 더불어 2008~09년에 발생했던 우리나라 경제위기의 강도를 여타 국가들과 비교해 봄으로써 우리나라 경제위기에 대한 상대적 위치도 점검하였다.전반적으로 우리 경제는 대부분의 전망기관에서 예상한 것에 비해빠르게 회복하였다. 특히 1997~98년 외환위기 당시와는 달리 외환시장충격이 국내 금융시장의 위기로 전이되지 않았으며, 중국을 비롯한 개도국의 회복과 함께 수출도 비교적 빠른 속도로 회복되면서 조기에 경제회복이 가시화되었다. 성장률, 실업률 및 인플레이션율 등과 같은 실물경제 지표의 측면에서 볼 때, 우리 경제의 성과가 선진국 이외의 국가들 중 아주 뛰어났다고 보기는 어려우나, 이러한 지표들의 안정성이라는 측면에서는 어느 경제에도 뒤지지 않는 모습을 나타내었다고 평가할수 있을 것이다.2. 금융시장을 통한 외부충격의 파급제2장에서는 금번 글로벌 금융위기가 금융시장을 통하여 우리나라까지 파급된 과정을 분석하였다. 이를 위하여 먼저 글로벌 금융위기 전후의 우리나라 금융 및 외환시장의 상황을 외채 변화를 중심으로 살펴본다음, 해외에서 발생한 위기가 금융부문을 통하여 국내로 전파되는 메커니즘을 실증적으로 분석하였다.글로벌 금융위기 전후의 국내외 금융시장 상황을 보면, 우리나라가금번 위기에서 단기적으로 큰 충격을 받은 이유는 2000년대 중반 이후해외로부터의 자본유입이 크게 증가하는 과정에서, 특히 조선회사의 선물환 매도 등과 같은 국내적 요인이 더해짐으로써 단기외채를 중심으로외채의 급격한 증가가 있었기 때문이라고 판단된다. 그리고 이러한 은행차입 위주의 자본유입 증가가 글로벌 금융위기가 발생한 직후에는 막대한 규모의 자본유출로 이어지게 된 것이다. 즉, 국제금융시장의 통합으로 인하여 우리나라가 해외 충격에 노출되는 정도가 커진 동시에, 우리나라의 특수한 국내적 요인이 더해지면서 자본이동의 변동성이 증가한 것으로 파악된다.한편, 국가 간 은행대출자료를 이용한 실증분석 결과에 의하면 금융
  25. 25. 총론 및 요약 5위기 중의 급속한 자금유출을 일반적인 거시경제적 요인들만으로 완전히 설명할 수는 없으나, 대출국의 금리 및 단기외채비율, 차입국의 경제성장률 및 단기외채비율, 차입국의 자본시장 자유화 정도 등이 국가 간대출에 체계적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타난다. 이러한 결과는 안정적인 거시경제 운용, 금융기관의 단기외채 관리 및 자금 조달처의 다양화 등을 통하여 급격한 자금유출을 완화할 수 있음을 시사한다. 또한 이러한 국가 간 대출 및 차입을 통한 금융 채널의 존재는 차입국의 외화유동성에만 영향을 미치는 것이 아니라, 대출국으로부터 차입국으로의금융위기의 전파에 있어서도 중요한 작용을 하는 것으로 나타난다. 따라서 앞으로 국제금융시장의 통합이 더욱 진전됨에 따라 금융경로를 통한 위기의 국가 간 파급이 더 확대될 것으로 예상할 수 있다.3. 국제금융위기와 우리나라의 수출구조제3장은 크게 두 부분으로 구성되어 있다. 전반부에서는 금번 국제금융위기 과정에서 경험하였던 우리나라 수출 급락의 주요 원인이 무엇이었는지에 관한 실증분석 결과를 제시하였으며, 후반부에서는 우리나라를 비롯한 주요국의 대중국 수출구조 변화에 대한 분석을 통해 금번경제위기를 전후로 중국 내수경기가 우리나라 수출에 미친 영향을 평가하였다.주요 분석 결과는 다음과 같이 정리될 수 있다. 첫째, 국제금융위기의 전개과정에서 나타난 우리나라 수출 급감은 주로 우리나라의 높은내구재 수출비중에서 기인한 것으로 분석되었으며, 국제금융위기 과정에서의 국제교역량 급감에 관한 주요 가설 중의 하나로 제시되어 왔던국제공급체계의 교란이나 무역금융의 위축 등은 우리나라의 수출 급감에 큰 영향을 미친 요인으로 작용하지는 않은 것으로 나타났다. 둘째,2000년대 중반을 기점으로 중국의 내수용 수입수요가 빠르게 증가하였던 것으로 나타났으며, 이에 따라 우리나라의 대중 수출에도 중국 내수와 관련성이 높은 일반무역형 수출비중이 늘어나는 방향으로 구조 변화가 진행되었음이 확인되었다. 일반무역형으로의 대중 수출구조 변화에있어 우리나라의 변화 속도가 미국, EU, 일본 등 중국의 여타 주요 교역
  26. 26. 6 경제 세계화와 우리 경제의 위기대응역량상대국들에 비해 상대적으로 빠르지는 않았던 것으로 나타나나, 이와같은 구조 변화는 중국의 내수회복이 우리나라의 수출을 빠르게 회복시키는 데에 기여하였던 것으로 평가된다.4. 고용시장으로의 파급제4장에서는 금융위기가 고용 및 실업에 미친 영향을 분석하였다.특히 금융위기 동안의 고용조정이 1997~98년 외환위기 당시나 여타 선진국의 경험과 비교하여 매우 완만하게 나타난 원인이 무엇이었는지에분석의 초점을 맞추었다.고용과 GDP 간의 장기균형관계를 설정하고, 단기식에 수요항목의구성, 금융경색 등의 변수를 추가한 오차수정모형을 이용하여 분석한결과는 다음과 같다. 우선 최근의 금융위기 기간 동안 고용조정이 외환위기에 비해 완만했던 일차적 원인은 성장률의 하락폭이 상대적으로 작았던 데서 찾을 수 있다. 그러나 외환위기 이전에 누적되었던 과잉고용의 부담이 금융위기에는 거의 없었다는 점과, 수요구성 측면에서 수출수요에 비해 고용민감도가 높은 국내수요가 금융위기 기간 동안에는 어느 정도 유지되었다는 점도 추가적인 요인으로 작용하였던 것으로 보이며, 특히 외환위기 당시와 달리 대규모 연쇄부도를 초래할 정도의 금융경색이 발생하지 않았다는 점이 최근의 완만한 고용조정을 설명할 수있는 주요 요인이었던 것으로 나타났다. 이와 같이 고용조정이 성장률뿐 아니라 수요구성 및 금융경색 등의 요인에 의해서도 크게 영향 받는현상은 OECD 국가를 대상으로 한 분석에서도 관측되었다.한편, 공공부문을 통한 고용확대정책은 2~3분기의 시차를 두고 민간부문의 고용조정 충격을 완충하는 데 상당한 기여를 한 것으로 보이나, 외환위기 시기에도 거의 동일한 규모의 고용확대정책이 시행되었던점을 감안하면 최근 금융위기 기간 동안의 고용조정이 외환위기 당시보다 완만하게 나타난 주요 요인으로 보기는 어려운 것으로 생각된다.이러한 분석 결과는 경제위기 시 고용의 급격한 위축을 방지하기 위해서 우선적으로 성장률의 급변동을 완화하는 거시경제정책의 중요성을 제기한다. 특히 경기침체가 금융경색을 동반할 경우 고용조정이 극
  27. 27. 총론 및 요약 7심해질 수 있으므로, 금융기관 및 기업의 재무건전성이 유지되도록 정책을 운영하는 것이 중요한 것으로 해석될 수 있다. 또한 고용이 수출보다 내수에 민감하다는 점을 감안하여 내수의 안정적 유지를 위한 정책이 필요한 것으로 사료되며, 노동시장 측면에서는 ‘과잉고용’이 누적되지 않도록 주의를 기울이는 한편, 위기 발생 시 공공부문의 고용 확대를통해 민간부문의 위축을 완충시키는 노력이 바람직한 것으로 보인다.5. 기업부문 건전성과 경제위기제5장에서는 한국경제가 2008~09년의 세계적인 경제위기상황에서비교적 양호한 성과를 거둘 수 있었던 주요 요인 중 하나라고 판단되는기업의 대응역량 개선 추이를 분석하였다. 특히, 1997~98년의 외환위기와 2008~09년의 금융위기 기간 중 대부분의 기업들이 신용경색과 환율급등에 직면하였다는 점을 감안하여, 1990~2010년 기간 중 상장사들의재무자료를 이용하여 기업들의 재무건전성 및 외화 부채․자산 관리행태의 개선 추이를 살펴보았다.분석 결과, 우리나라 기업들의 부채비율과 현금보유비율 등 재무건전성이 크게 개선된 것으로 나타났다. 우선 외환위기 이전 300~400%에이르렀던 부채비율은, 정부의 강력한 구조조정 정책에 따라 기업들이자산재평가, 적극적인 부채상환, 투자 및 고용 감축 등의 노력을 기울인결과 100% 내외의 수준까지 낮아진 상태에서 유지되고 있다. 상장기업들의 현금보유비율은 1990년대 8~9% 수준에서 2000년에 7.5%까지 하락하였으나 2000년대 초반에 10%대로 빠르게 상승하여 최근까지 10~11%수준이 유지되고 있으며, 외환위기 이전 600% 내외에 달하던 외화자산대비 외화부채 비율은 2000년대 이후 빠르게 감소하여 2010년 말에는147%를 기록하였다. 이러한 변화는 우리나라 기업들이 금융위기 기간중 신용경색과 환율급등으로부터 심각한 영향을 받지 않고 빠르게 회복하는 데에 크게 기여하였을 것으로 판단된다.그러나 개별 기업에 대한 미시자료를 살펴볼 경우 추가적인 개선이요구되는 부분들이 남아 있는 것으로 보인다. 첫째, 상장기업 전체의 부채비율은 100%를 하회하고 있으나 연결재무제표를 이용할 경우 약
  28. 28. 8 경제 세계화와 우리 경제의 위기대응역량150% 수준인 것으로 나타나며, 여전히 부채비율이 높은 기업들이 다수존재하고 있다. 둘째, 10~11% 수준의 현금보유비율은 여전히 선진 기업들에 비해서는 다소 낮은 수준인 것으로 평가되고 있으며, 특히 현금성자산을 대규모로 보유하고 있는 소수의 기업을 제외한 나머지 기업들의현금보유비율은 여전히 충분하다고 평가하기 어려운 것으로 판단된다.마지막으로, 외화 자산․부채 보유규모의 경우에도 상장기업 전체로는비교적 양호한 수준을 유지하고 있으나, 산업별로는 조선, 전자를 제외한 많은 산업들이 여전히 환율급등의 위험에 노출되어 있는 것으로 판단되며, 특히 파생상품 자산․부채의 경우 외화표시 자산․부채에 비해환위험에 대한 노출이 큰 것으로 짐작된다.6. 가계부문 건전성과 경제위기제6장에서는 경제위기를 전후하여 가계부채를 중심으로 가계부문의재무건전성에 대해 평가하였으며, 가계 건전성의 유지에 있어 주택가격의 안정이 갖는 중요성과 그 효과에 대해서도 살펴보았다. 더불어 분석결과에 기초하여 관련 정책적 시사점에 대해 논의하였다.우리나라는 2003년 카드채 사태 이후 가계부채의 총량이 증가세를보였으나, 주로 소득과 보유자산이 비교적 양호한 가구들을 중심으로부채가 분포하고 있어 큰 외부충격이 없는 한 가계부채의 대규모 부실가능성은 낮아 보인다. 그러나 보유자산의 규모가 작은 저소득 가구의부채상환능력이 현저하게 낮으며, 이들 부채가구의 대출의존도가 비교적 높은 비은행 금융기관의 연체율이 높은 수준을 기록하고 있어 이들에 대한 지속적인 모니터링과 정책적 관심이 필요하다고 판단된다. 또한 현행 가계대출구조의 주요 특징인 변동금리와 짧은 만기의 일시상환대출 비중이 높은 점도 향후 위기 발생 시 신용경색을 심화시킬 수 있어 가계부문의 건전성 유지를 위해 대출구조의 점진적 조정이 필요하다. 한편, 가계부문의 건전성 유지에 있어 주택가격의 안정이 갖는 중요성에도 주목할 필요가 있는데, 이는 실물에 기초하지 않은 주택가격의거품 형성과 이의 붕괴가 가계부채의 급증과 부실 확대 그리고 소비 위축을 초래할 수 있기 때문이다.
  29. 29. 총론 및 요약 97. 금융기관 건전성과 외부충격의 파급기업부문과 가계부문에 이어 제7장에서는 금융기관의 건전성을 살펴보았다. 특히 신흥국에 있어서는 금융기관의 건전성이 대외충격에 따른금융위기의 파급을 제어하는 데 매우 긴요한 완충장치가 된다는 점을검증하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 대내적으로 1997년 외환위기 당시와 비교하여 2008년 글로벌 위기 시 국내 금융기관의 건전성 상황을 다각도로 비교ㆍ평가하였으며, 42개국의 자료를 이용하여 2008년 당시 국가별금융기관 건전성 지표와 위기의 파급 정도 간 관계를 실증분석하였다.먼저 대내적으로, 1997년의 위기가 금융기관 자산측면의 문제, 즉 신용위험에 의한 위기였다면, 2008년의 위기는 금융기관 부채측면의 문제,즉 자금조달구조에 반영된 유동성위험에 의한 위기였다고 볼 수 있다.따라서 위기극복 과정에서도 외환위기 시에는 잠재부실의 현재화와 이에 따라 훼손된 자본적정성을 재구축하는 데 많은 시간과 재원이 소요되었으나, 2008년에는 중앙은행과 정부의 유동성 지원에 힘입어 상대적으로 빠른 회복이 가능하였다.국가별 자료를 이용한 실증분석 결과도 이러한 가설을 뒷받침한다.즉, 자본적정성, 자산건전성, 수익성, 유동성, 외채비율 등 금융기관 건전성 지표가 양호한 국가일수록 위기의 파급 정도가 약한 것으로 분석되었다. 구체적으로 위기의 심도에 있어서는 금융기관의 자본적정성이,위기의 지속 기간에 있어서는 자산건전성이 중요하며, 금융기관의 수익성과 외채비율도 일정 수준 설명력이 있는 것으로 나타났다.이러한 분석 결과들은 다음과 같은 시사점을 제공한다. 첫째, 신흥국의 금융안정을 위해서는 무엇보다도 금융기관의 미시적인 대차대조표건전성 유지가 필수적이다. 둘째, 개별 금융기관의 건전성만으로는 전체금융시스템의 안정성을 효과적으로 달성할 수 없으며, 따라서 시스템차원의 거시건전성에 대한 모니터링과 위험관리가 요구된다. 셋째, 특히우리나라는 금융회사의 비핵심부채와 해외자본의 유출입을 통해 시스템위험과 경기순응성이 심화되는 경향이 크므로, 이러한 특성을 적절히감안한 거시건전성 규제감독 장치가 마련될 필요가 있다.
  30. 30. 10 경제 세계화와 우리 경제의 위기대응역량8. 통화정책제8장에서는 통화정책을 중심으로 우리 경제의 위기극복을 위해 실시되었던 정책조치들의 핵심적 내용들을 정리하고 초저금리 통화정책기조가 우리 경제의 회복에 기여한 정도에 대해 시산하고 평가하였다.이를 위해 우선 2008년 글로벌 금융위기 이전의 우리 경제의 모습과 통화정책의 여건이 어떻게 변해왔는지를 살펴보고, 금융위기가 발생한 이후 2008년 4/4분기부터 위기극복을 위해 실시되었던 통화정책 관련 조치들을 정리한 후, 우리 경제 역사상 최저 수준으로 유지되었던 기준금리의 인하효과를 중심으로 확장적 통화정책이 경기회복에 어느 정도 기여했는지를 시산해 보았다.이와 같은 분석을 바탕으로 향후 통화정책 방향에 대한 시사점들을제시하였다. 금번 국제금융위기가 가져다준 교훈 중의 하나는 향후 통화당국은 거시금융위험(macro-financial risk)에 대해 보다 면밀히 주의하고기민하게 반응할 필요가 있다는 점일 것이다. 따라서 향후 통화정책의방향은 금융안정을 위한 중앙은행의 역할을 어떻게 설정할 것인가로 모아지고 있는데, 이러한 통화금융 정책혼합체계는 기존의 금융감독체계와조화를 이루어야 하므로 통화 및 금융 정책의 전 체계를 포괄적으로 재구성하는 차원에서 신중히 접근하는 것이 바람직할 것으로 판단된다.9. 재정정책제9장은 글로벌 금융위기에 대응한 재정정책 관련 조치들을 시점에따라 정리하고 확장적 재정정책이 거시변수에 미친 영향을 살펴봄으로써 그동안의 성과를 평가하고 정책적 시사점을 도출하고 있다.2008년 말 글로벌 금융위기가 실물경기의 침체로 전이됨에 따라 우리 경제는 상대적으로 양호한 재정건전성을 바탕으로 확장적인 재정정책을 실시하였다. 정부는 2008년 고유가 종합대책 및 추경, 2009년 당초예산안 수정, 2009년 추경 등을 통해 총 30.5조원 규모의 재정지출을 일시적으로 확대함과 동시에 세제개편을 통해 총 29.3조원 규모의 감세정책을 실시하였다. 이와 같은 일시적인 재정지출 확대 및 감세에 따른 거
  31. 31. 총론 및 요약 11시변수의 동태적 변화는 다음과 같이 추정되었다. 우선 감세효과를 제외한 순수한 재정지출의 일시적 증가로 인한 실질GDP 성장률 제고효과는 2009년에 1.1%p, 2010년에 0.3%p 정도로 나타났다. 일시적 재정지출 증가에 따른 성장률 제고효과는 주로 2009년 상반기에 집중되었다.2010년의 경우 상반기에는 재정조기집행으로 인해 실질 GDP 성장률 제고효과가 있었으나, 하반기 들어 재정지출이 감소하면서 실질 GDP 성장률을 하락시키는 결과를 초래하였다. 한편, 감세정책을 포함한 확장적재정정책의 효과를 감안한 경우 실질 GDP 성장률 제고효과는 더욱 크게 나타났다. 2009년의 경우 실질 GDP는 추가적으로 1.9%p 정도 증가한 것으로 나타났는데, 이 중 지출확대에 의한 증가가 1.1%p, 감세에 따른 증가가 0.8%p 정도로 나타났다.확장적 재정지출의 결과, 우리나라의 재정건전성은 다소 악화되었다.우리나라의 국가채무는 2007년 299.2조원에서 2010년 392.8조원을 기록하여 최근 3년 동안 100조원 가까이 증가하였는데, 이 중 상당 부문은재정적자 보전을 위한 국채발행 증가에 기인하였다. 따라서 향후에는재정정책기조의 정상화, 재정규율 확립, 지출 구조조정 등 재정건전성제고를 위한 정책적 노력이 강화될 필요가 있다.10. 향후 정책방향이상에서 살펴본 바와 같이 우리나라는 금번 세계경제의 위기 국면을 비교적 성공적으로 극복한 경제로 평가할 수 있다. 그러나 여전히 우리 경제에는 대내외 충격에 취약한 부분이 남아 있으며, 일부 측면에서는 위기대응능력이 훼손되어 가고 있는 부분도 있다. 이와 같은 점들을감안하여 제10장에서는 주요 거시경제정책과 관련된 바람직한 정책방향을 모색하고자 하였다.우선 건전한 재정의 유지는 모든 위기극복의 전제조건이라는 점이강조되었으며, 이를 위해 총량적 차원의 재정규율 강화와 (SOC 투자, 복지지출, R&D 및 교육 등) 부문별 재원배분의 적극적인 구조조정, (소득파악 개선, 비과세․감면의 합리적 조정, 조세부담률의 점진적 증가 등)안정적 세원 확보 및 준재정부문의 관리 강화 등이 제시되었다. 통화정
  32. 32. 12 경제 세계화와 우리 경제의 위기대응역량책과 관련해서는, 개념상 단기적인 금융안정을 포괄할 수 있는 중기적인 물가안정을 목표로 하는 물가안정목표제도를 유지하되 물가안정 목표의 기간은 현재의 1년에 비해 장기화하는 한편 허용오차범위 ±1%는축소시키는 방향을 제시하고 있으며, 이와 함께 물가안정목표의 준수여부에 대한 통화당국의 책임은 보다 강화될 필요가 있음을 지적하였다. 외환정책과 관련해서는 우선 현재의 외환보유고 규모의 적정성에대해 검토하였으며, 환율의 신축성 유지 및 금융기관의 단기외채 도입억제방안의 당위성에 대해 논의하였다. 마지막으로 금융정책은, 금융시장의 효율적 자원배분기능의 정상화, 금융부문의 위기대응역량을 높이기 위한 금융기관들의 자기자본 확충, 경기순응성 완화 및 유동성위험관리를 위한 거시건전성 감독체제의 확립 등을 강조하였다.
  33. 33. 제1부세계 경제위기와 우리 경제
  34. 34. 제1장세계 경제위기와 우리 경제1)조 동 철 (KDI 국제정책대학원)김 현 욱 (SK 경영연구소)제1절 서 론흔히 우리 경제를 ‘소규모 개방경제’라고 칭한다. 1960년대 이후 이루어진 경제성장의 결과, 이제 그 규모가 세계 12위권에 해당하는 우리경제를 여전히 ‘소규모’ 경제로 칭하는 데에 대한 불편함이 없지 않으나, ‘개방경제’라는 호칭에 대해서는 이의를 제기하기 어렵다. 그동안 이루어진 빠른 성장의 이면에는 GDP 증가 속도보다 더욱 빠르게 확대되어 온 무역규모가 자리 잡고 있으며, 1997~98년 외환위기를 기점으로자본시장도 대폭 개방됨에 따라, 실로 우리 경제는 개방된 경제라고 부르기에 손색이 없는 상태라고 할 수 있다.이와 같은 개방은, 한편으로 우리 경제의 체질을 강화시키고 생산성을 향상시켜 경제성장의 결정적인 밑거름으로 작용해 왔으나, 다른 한편으로는 우리 경제의 대외의존성을 심화시키는 요인으로 작용하기도한다. 실제 우리 경제는 주변 국가의 경기변동에, 국제금융시장의 출렁거림에, 그리고 국제유가의 등락에 항상 영향을 받아 왔다. “미국이 재채기를 하면 우리는 독감을 앓는다”는 언급은, 대다수 국민이나 정책당국자들이 우리 경제의 경기변동은 우리 스스로 통제할 수 없는 불가항력적인 요인에 의해 결정되는 부분이 크다는 인식을 공유하고 있음을* 본 장의 연구 및 편집 과정에 도움을 준 이상규 연구원께 감사드린다.

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