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Gale Pooley
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Money, Banking, and Business Lecture 31 Chapter 16 How Exchange Rates are Determined
Questions?
Purchasing Power Parity PPP Exchange rates are always adjusting so that relative purchasing power of currencies is equalized
Why PPP is not perfect unrealistic assumptions goods are not identical not all goods are tradable local markets differ different inflations different tastes
Interest Rate Parity Exchange rate risk Interestus = Interestfor + Expected %∆ Exchange Rate Ius = Ifor + E
Interest Rate Parity U.S. Pooleynesia Nominal 10% 15% Inflation 3% 5% Real 7% 10% Exchange 0% 3% After FX 7% 7%
Balance of Payments Record of transactions between a country and the rest of the world over a period of time
Credits When foreigners make a payment to buy your stuff Debits When you make a payment to buy foreign stuff
Merchandise Exports Goods sold to foreigners Merchandise Imports Goods bought from foreigners
Balance of Payments Current Account + Capital Account = Zero
Balance of Payments Account Component + Receipts - Payments Balance Current Merchandise Exports $400 $400 Merchandise Imports $600 -$200 Trade Balance Net Export Service $50 -$150 Net Exports Net Unilateral Transfers $30 -$180 Current Account Balance Capital Inflows $280 $280 Outflows $100 $180 Capital Account Balance Balance of Payments $730 $730 $0
Balance of Payments and the Exchange Rate Receipts are foreign demand for dollars Payments are local supply of dollars
Lower U.S. Interest Rates Lower demand for dollars Higher supply of dollars Higher U.S. Interest Rates Higher demand for dollars Lower supply of dollars
Demand Dollars Yuan Per Dollar Supply Higher U.S. Interest Rate 6.30 6.35 Appreciating
Demand Dollars Yuan Per Dollar Supply Lower U.S. Interest Rate 6.30 6.25 Depreciating
A fall in U.S. Interest Rates Dollars depreciate Takes less foreign currency to buy Makes U.S. good cheaper Increases output Increases employment
Chapter 18 The International Financial System
Two Periods 1944 to 1973 After 1973
Bretton Woods 1944 Official Reserve Currency U.S. Dollar Fixed Exchange Rates $35 = one ounce of Gold
Official Reserve Account Record of government transactions in the FX to keep the balance of payments in balance
Too much pressure on Fixed Rate? Devaluation Set a new exchange rate
Too much pressure on Fixed Rate? Devaluation Set a new lower exchange rate
Too much pressure on Fixed Rate? Revaluation Set a new higher exchange rate
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