The document criticizes the Brazilian government's claims that the economy is recovering. It argues that job growth is in precarious, low-paying positions without formal contracts. Meager GDP growth is due to agriculture and exports, not government policy. Stock market gains do not indicate a stronger economy when adjusted for inflation. True recovery requires increased household consumption, investment, public spending, and exports - but high unemployment, low incomes, and debt prevent consumption growth. Private investment is also low due to excess capacity and an unfriendly business environment. The government cannot boost spending due to falling revenues and high debt levels. The discourse of recovery is therefore considered false.

1. 1
STILL ABOUT THE FALSE DISCOURSE OF THE GOVERNMENT FEAR ON
THE ECONOMIC RECOVERY OF BRAZIL
Fernando Alcoforado *
In the article O falso discurso do governo Temer sobre a recuperação da economia
brasileira (The false speech of the Temer government about the recovery of the
Brazilian economy), we affirm that this discourse represents an attempt of divulging of
narrative to sell to the society that the government is being responsible for an economic
recovery that, in fact, is false. The Temer government's speech that there is a fall in the
unemployment rate is also false. The PNAD [National Survey by Household Sample]
data analysis shows that the jobs that are being generated are precarious because they
are without a formal contract and with lower incomes. We further affirm that Brazil's
meager economic growth in the third quarter of 2017 is due to the agricultural super
harvest and notable export growth thanks to agribusiness, all despite the economic
recession imposed by the Temer government.
Another argument presented by the government about recovery of the Brazilian
economy is related to the appreciation of the indices of the São Paulo Stock Exchange
(Ibovespa). José Roberto Castro explains in his article Por que a alta da bolsa de
valores bateu recorde (Why the stock market high hit record) available on the website
<https://www.nexojornal.com.br/expresso/2017/09/13/Por-que-a-alta-da-bolsa-de-
valores-bateu-recorde>, "that" optimism and excess money in the world help to explain
Ibovespa's record". He adds that the real value of companies, however, is far from the
2008 level when the world crisis broke out in the United States.
It should be noted that the Ibovespa is an index that gathers the main actions of the
Brazilian Stock Exchange, a package of actions thought to represent the market in
Brazil. There are 56 companies, with different weights according to their importance.
Currently, those that have the most weight in the index are Petrobras, Vale, Ambev and
Bradesco. The 74 thousand points of 2017 and the current 78 thousand points are worth
less than those of 2008. According to José Roberto Castro, accumulated inflation in the
period was 73%. That is, who bought in 2008 the Ibovespa shares lost money. Or rather,
it now has a real number similar to nine years ago, but buys much less with it. For
example, if the value in Reais that the companies had in May 2008 was corrected for the
inflation of the period and converted into points, the Ibovespa should be at 127 thousand
points and not 78 thousand current points. The main Brazilian companies did not have
the same real value of nine years ago. According to the calculation of the newspaper
Valor Econômico, the current value of the companies in American currency represents
just over half of what it was nine years ago.
José Roberto Castro's explanation for the Ibovespa appreciation lies in the fact that there
is still excess money from abroad. At very low interest rates, sometimes even negative,
in developed countries, investing in emerging markets as Brazil becomes more
attractive. Investors, with excess money, seek better returns and this increases demand
for riskier countries, and that can give more returns, like Brazil. When these dollars
enter Brazil to invest in the stock exchange, there are two immediate consequences. The
first is the appreciation of the Real, because of the increase in the supply of dollars. The
second is the appreciation of Ibovespa, with the increase in demand for the main shares
of the Brazilian market. It can be affirmed, therefore, that the valuation of the Bolsa in
Brazil is not indicative of recovery of the Brazilian economy as argues the Temer
government.

2. 2
We affirm in the article O falso discurso do governo Temer sobre a recuperação da
economia brasileira (The false speech of the government Temer about the recovery of
the Brazilian economy), that the Brazilian economy will only recover with the increase
of the consumption of the families, the investment, of the public expense and of the
exports. The increase in household consumption does not happen because of high
unemployment (12.6 million unemployed), the inexpressive recovery of real average
income and the large commitment of family income to the payment of household debt
due to growth of bank spreads. Private investment is not increasing because there is
great idle capacity and there is no prospect of high profitability in Brazil in a recessive
economic environment, with extremely high bank spreads and with a scalding tax
burden. State spending has not increased because tax revenues are falling and the Temer
government itself has set the "ceiling" on public spending with the PEC 241.
The federal government is unlikely to be able to raise public spending to reactivate
economic activity because the country's fiscal situation should continue to worsen with
the maintenance of the current recessionary economic policy. With the Brazilian
economy in recession and the consequent fall in tax revenues, the tendency is for
Brazil's gross debt to close 2018 at 79.8% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product), up from
74.4% by November 2017. Explosive growth of public debt makes it impossible to
recover the Brazilian economy. Therefore, it is demonstrated that the official discourse
that is recovering the Brazilian economy is false. The first step in promoting the
recovery of the Brazilian economy should be the immediate auditing of external and
internal debts and the renegotiation of the payment of the country's external debt and
public internal debt, aiming at its lengthening in time to reduce charges and the
availability of public resources for investment. We can only hope that the future
president of the Republic adopts a developmentalist economic policy as opposed to the
current backward recessionary policy.
* Fernando Alcoforado, 78, member of the Bahian Academy of Education and the Brazilian Academy of
Letters of Rotary - Bahia Section, engineer and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development
by the University of Barcelona, university professor and consultant in the areas of strategic planning,
business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is the author of the books
Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um
Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os Condicionantes de Desenvolvimento do
Estado da Bahia (PhD Thesis, University of Barcelona, http: //www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944,
2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento da
Bahia do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador,
2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of
Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010),
Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São
Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global
(Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do
Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil-
Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes
Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016) e A
Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017). Possui blog na Internet
(http://fernando.alcoforado.zip.net). E-mail: falcoforado@uol.com.br.