1. DEPLETION OF NATURAL RESOURCES OF THE PLANET EARTH
Fernando Alcoforado *
One indisputable fact is that humanity now consumes more natural resources than the
planet can replenish. The current rate of consumption is a threat to the future prosperity
of humankind. In the last 45 years, the demand for earth's natural resources has doubled,
due to rising living standards in rich and emerging countries and increasing world
population. Today humanity uses 50% of the planet's fresh water. In 40 years will use
80%. The geographical distribution of freshwater is uneven. Currently 1/3 of the world
population lives in regions where it is scarce. The use of water unfit for consumption is
responsible for 60% of patients on the planet. Half the world's rivers are contaminated
by sewage, pesticides and industrial waste [See Article Cai do Céu, mas pode faltar
(Falls from the sky) available on the website
<http://veja.abril.com.br/300108/p_086.shtml>].
Only 12% of Earth's land is arable. Over the past 30 years has doubled the total
cultivable land affected by severe droughts due to global warming. In China every two
years an area equivalent to the state of Sergipe turns into desert. Of the 200 fish species
with greater commercial interest, 120 are exploited beyond sustainable level. At this
rate, the amount of available fish has declined by over 90% by 2050. It is estimated that
40% of the area of the oceans is severely degraded by human activities. Over the past 50
years the number of dead zones has grown 10 times [See Article O WWF alerta para o
esgotamento dos recursos naturais (WWF warns of depletion of natural resources)
available in the website <http://arquivoetc.blogspot.com.br/2008/11/o-wwf- alert-for-
exhaustion-dos.html>].
Since 1961, the amount of greenhouse gases discharged into the atmosphere by man
grew 10 times. This discharge accelerates global warming causing droughts, floods,
extinction of species and the possibility of rising sea levels of up to 7 meters that would
occur if the melting of the poles, Greenland and the mountain ranges of the Himalayas,
the Alps and the Andes which would result the disappearance of many islands and
coastal cities. The reduction since 1970 of specimens is 33% terrestrial, marine
specimens corresponding to 14%, and specimens of freshwater is 35%. The world
population is growing about 80 million per year compounding the demand for water and
its services [See Relatório Planeta Vivo 2008 (Living Planet Report 2008) available on
the website
<http://assets.wwf.org.br/downloads/sumario_imprensa_relatorio_planeta_vivo_2008_2
8_10_08.pdf>].
UN report on water usage confirms that without measures against waste and for
sustainable consumption, access to drinking water and sanitation will be further reduced
[See Article Bilhões sofrerão com falta de água e saneamento, diz relatório da ONU
(Billions will suffer from lack of water and sanitation, says UN report) available on the
website <http://sosriosdobrasil.blogspot.com.br/2009/03/bilhoes-sofrerao-com-falta-de-
agua-e.html>]. This UN report estimates that 5 billion people will suffer from the lack
basic sanitation by 2030. Worldwide is 1.197 billion people without access to safe water
and sanitation without 2.742 billion (data from Human Development Report 2004) and,
in Brazil, there are more than 45 million people without access to water and drinking
more than 90 million without access to sewage (IBGE data in 2004). According to the
UN, 41% of the current surface of the planet are formed by dry areas, such as Brazilian
1

2. semiarid, and 2 billion people live these areas. All these people, in dry or wet areas,
have no access to drinking water [See the article by Clarissa Taguchi Ver para crer:
uma guerra pela água pode estar prestes a ser travada (Seeing is believing: a water
war may be about to be waged) available on the website <http://panoramaecologia.
blogspot.com.br/2006/03/ver-para-crer-uma-guerra-pela-gua-pode.html>].
Water is becoming a source of wars due to international competition for water
resources. Many countries build large dams diverting water from natural drainage
systems of rivers to the detriment of others. The main water conflicts in the world today
involve Israel, Jordan and Palestine by the Jordan, Turkey and Syria by the Euphrates
River, China and India by the Brahmaputra River, Botswana, Namibia and Angola by
the Okavango River, Ethiopia, Uganda, Sudan and Egypt by Rio Bangladesh and India
Nile and the Ganges River.
If the peripheral capitalist countries had copied the patterns of the developed capitalist
countries, the amount of fossil fuels consumed today would increase 10 times and
mineral resources, 200 times [see the article O que é desenvolvimento sustentável?
(What is sustainable development?) available on the website <http://www. wwf.org.br /
natureza_brasileira / questoes_ambientais / desenvolvimento_sustentavel />]. Regarding
mineral resources, iron, aluminum and titanium are probably abundant in the earth's
crust whose reserves can be considered unlimited. However, other non-renewable
mineral formed by processes geological million years show that reserves are reduced
continuously being so scarce and precious as fossil fuels (Meadows, Donella, Meadows
et alli. Beyond the limits. Vermont: Chelsea Green Publishing Company, 1992).
For two centuries the extraction of mineral resources became more intense, removing
increasing amounts of nature. The concern is that most of these resources are not
renewable, or not replenished by nature. If the pace of extraction continues as is,
mankind will see certainly some minerals become extinct. Based on existing reserves
today, certain mineral resources already have a possible date for run out, among them
we can mention gold, tin and nickel. Gold reserves must be ended by the year 2020. The
tin should be exhausted by the year 2020. The expected date for the end of the nickel
reserves on the planet is around 2050. Many scientists say that oil will run out around
2070 [See Article O esgotamento de alguns minérios (Depletion of some ores) available
on the website <http://www.brasilescola.com/geografia/o-esgotamento-alguns-
minerios.htm>].
Competition for resources like oil is currently the largest potential source of global
conflicts. The growth in demand for oil will outstrip supply in 2020 or 2025 overall,
noting that the world is experiencing "the twilight of oil" that is, a time of transition
between abundance and scarcity. The dispute over the oil that remains will lead to a
permanent state of war, characterized by the presence of great powers in their regions.
In the past, large companies in the industry discovered more oil per year than they were
able to extract, which is no longer true today. There is currently more than oil extraction
capacity to replenish with new discoveries [See the article by Luciana Brafman Disputa
por petróleo leva a estado de guerra permanente (Oil Dispute leads to a state of
permanent war) available on the web site <http://www1.folha.uol.com.
br/fsp/brasil/fc1710200520.htm>].
It seems that the wars of the twenty-first century will be the fulcrum as the battle for
natural resources which tend not to meet human needs. Our development model is
reaching its limits. With the lack of natural resources necessary for their survival and
2

3. the absence of a world government that is capable of mediating conflicts, humanity
tends to a regression to barbarism and cruel behavior. To avoid this catastrophic
scenario, it is necessary that all the governments of all countries of the world to
celebrate a social planetary contract which enables social and economic development
with the rational use of nature's resources for the benefit of all mankind.
*Fernando Alcoforado, 73, engenheiro e doutor em Planejamento Territorial e Desenvolvimento Regional
pela Universidade de Barcelona, professor universitário e consultor nas áreas de planejamento estratégico,
planejamento empresarial, planejamento regional e planejamento de sistemas energéticos, é autor dos
livros Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem
Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000),
Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de
Barcelona, http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento
(Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos
Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the
Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller
Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe
Planetária (P&A Gráfica e Editora, Salvador, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e
combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011) e
Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), entre
outros.
3