Texas Economy Outlook 2017

1. LUISTORRES
RESEARCHECONOMIST
WESLEYMILLER
RESEARCHASSISTANT
TR
T E C H N I C A L R E P O R T
J U N E 2 017
2 0 4 6
Outlook
for the
Texas Economy

2. 1
Contents
About this Report ................................................................................................................................ 3
April 2017 Summary ............................................................................................................................ 4
Economic Activity ................................................................................................................................ 7
Real GDP Growth .............................................................................................................................. 7
Texas Business Cycle Index and Leading Index ................................................................................. 7
Major Metros Business Cycle Index ................................................................................................. 8
Border Metros Business Cycle Index ................................................................................................ 8
Consumer Confidence Index ............................................................................................................ 9
Financial Activity .................................................................................................................................. 9
30-Year Mortgage Rate and 10-Year Bond Yield .............................................................................. 9
Housing .............................................................................................................................................. 10
Housing Sales ................................................................................................................................. 10
Major Metros Housing Sales .......................................................................................................... 10
Months of Inventory ...................................................................................................................... 11
Major Metros Months of Inventory ............................................................................................... 11
Texas Home Days on Market .......................................................................................................... 12
Energy ................................................................................................................................................ 12
Texas Production of Crude Oil and Rig Count ................................................................................ 12
Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices ................................................................................................... 13
Manufacturing ................................................................................................................................... 13
Manufacturing Outlook Survey ...................................................................................................... 13
Services .............................................................................................................................................. 14
Services Sector Outlook Survey ...................................................................................................... 14
Texas Retail Sector ......................................................................................................................... 14
Employment ...................................................................................................................................... 15
Employment Growth Rate .............................................................................................................. 15
Major Metros Employment Growth Rate ...................................................................................... 15
Unemployment Rate ...................................................................................................................... 16
Major Metros Unemployment Rate ............................................................................................... 16
Unemployment Insurance Claims: Initial Applications ................................................................... 17

3. 2
Labor Force Participation Rate ....................................................................................................... 17
Manufacturing Employment .......................................................................................................... 18
Major Metros Manufacturing Employment ................................................................................... 18
Construction Employment ............................................................................................................. 19
Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings ........................................................................................ 19
Major Metros Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings ................................................................. 20
Manufacturing Employee Hourly Earnings ..................................................................................... 20
Major Metros Manufacturing Employee Hourly Earnings ............................................................. 21
CPI Inflation Rates .......................................................................................................................... 21
CPI Inflation Rates (Houston Components) .................................................................................... 22
Trade .................................................................................................................................................. 22
Exports (All Commodities) .............................................................................................................. 22
Manufacturing Exports ................................................................................................................... 23
Texas Exports by Country ............................................................................................................... 23
Real Trade Weighted Value of U.S. Dollar ...................................................................................... 24

4. 3
About this Report
Real Estate Center economists continuously monitor many facets of the global, national, and Texas
economies. Outlook for the Texas Economy summarizes significant state economic activity and
trends. All monthly measurements are calculated using seasonally adjusted data, and percentage
changes are calculated month-over-month, unless stated otherwise.
This publication is designed to be a one-stop resource for economic indicators. We hope you find
them as useful as we do. Your feedback is always appreciated. Send comments and suggestions to
info@recenter.tamu.edu.
Dr. Luis Torres and Wesley Miller
Data current as of June 2, 2017
© 2017, Real Estate Center. All rights reserved.

5. 4
April 2017 Summary1
The Texas economy advanced amid increased energy activity and a tightening labor market. The
number of active rigs reached a two-year high, led by production increases in the Permian Basin. Texas
posted the largest monthly employment increase in the nation, led by large gains in education and
health services. Employment growth, increased labor force participation, and low levels of initial
unemployment insurance claims indicate that the labor market is heating up. Potential headwinds to
the Texas economy include trade uncertainty (especially with Mexico), volatile energy prices, and tax
policy uncertainty.
The Texas economy appeared stagnant in 2016, with gross domestic product (GDP) inching up only 0.4
percent. However, the contractionary second quarter masked the 3.4 percent fourth quarter
expansion—the largest growth of any state. Upswings in residential construction, energy activity, and
manufacturing stimulated growth in the Texas economy.
The positive trend in the Texas Business Cycle Index (a measure of current economic activity in the
state) suggests that this momentum continued through the first four months of 2017. The index
surpassed 4.0 percent year-over-year growth for the first time since September 2015. The major
metro Business Cycle Indices indicated similar year-over-year growth throughout the Texas Urban
Triangle. Houston posted the largest monthly percentage increase and maintained a steep upward
trend, solidifying its recent economic recovery.
The Texas Leading Economic Index (a measure of future directional changes in the business cycle)
dipped slightly as the price of oil slipped but maintained positive year-over-year growth, primarily from
the decline in the Texas value of the dollar. Similarly, the Consumer Confidence Index reflected a
favorable, yet adjusted outlook on the future. The index remained historically high but fell 10.0
percent from March, retracting almost all its post-election gains.
Texas housing sales declined 5.9 percent (seasonally adjusted) because of shortages of homes under
$200,000. The average number of days on market fell to 55 days, and the months of inventory inched
up to 3.8 months. The median sale price was flat for new homes but rose 10.2 percent year-over-year
in the existing home market. (For additional housing commentary and statistics, see Texas Housing
Insight at recenter.tamu.edu.)
Interest rates reversed and fell to their lowest point this year amid geopolitical tensions and soft
national economic data. The ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yield dropped to 2.2 percent as investors
rushed to secure safer assets. The Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation 30-year fixed-rate fell
below 4.1 percent, providing some assistance to housing affordability pressures.
1
All monthly measurements are calculated using seasonally adjusted data, and percentage changes are
calculated month-over-month, unless stated otherwise.

6. 5
The average West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price ticked up to $51.06 but was down 6.1
percent after seasonal adjustments. The number of active rigs in Texas rose to a two-year high of 4252
and crude oil production leveled at 3.3 million bpd2,3
. The Henry Hub spot price of natural gas rose to
$3.10 per million BTU2
(British Thermal Unit), despite saturated inventories. Horizontal drilling
technology in the U.S. has contributed to a global natural gas glut. The Energy Information
Administration predicts that the U.S. will be a net exporter of natural gas by 2018—the first time in
nearly 60 years. Texas remained the largest gas-producing state, accounting for 23.7 percent of
national production.
Texas led the nation in monthly nonfarm employment growth, adding 30,400 new jobs, and pushed
this year’s net job increase above 110,300. The Dallas Federal Reserve forecasts a 289,300 job increase
in 2017. The statewide unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.0 percent, and the labor force
participation rate surpassed 64 percent for the first time in two years. The unemployment rate varied
from 3.6 percent in Austin to 5.7 percent in Houston, but all major metros exhibited a monthly decline.
Moreover, the number of initial unemployment insurance claims in Texas remained at pre-
recessionary levels, corroborating the health of the Texas labor market.
Job growth was mixed across the Texas Urban Triangle. Houston added 13,700 jobs—its largest
monthly increase since 2014—in response to the continued energy sector recovery. San Antonio
added 3,800 jobs, pushing this year’s net increase above 6,000. Dallas lost 15,600 jobs, primarily in the
professional/business services and leisure/hospitality industries but still led the state in year-over-year
job growth at 3.1 percent. Employment dipped by 0.3 percent in Fort Worth, resulting from 3,200 lost
jobs but maintained a 5,500 net increase for the year. Austin lost 400 jobs but maintained 3.0 percent
year-over-year growth.
Goods-producing sector employment growth slowed but sustained its first-quarter gains. In response
to increased energy activity, the mining and logging industry added 3,300 jobs, while manufacturing
posted an 8,100 job increase. All of the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey’s labor market indices
(employment, wages, hours worked) increased, albeit at slightly decreasing rates. Manufacturers
noted production and demand increases and remained optimistic for the next six months. Conversely,
the construction industry lost 10,300 jobs, offsetting most of the manufacturing, mining, and logging
gains.
After a stagnant first quarter, the service-providing sector added 29,300 jobs and accounted for nearly
all of this month’s total employment growth. Education and health services recorded the largest gains
with 10,400 jobs added. Professional and business services employment increased by 7,400 jobs,
followed by a 6,100 job increase in leisure and hospitality. Job losses occurred only in the information
industry, which contracted by 3,500 jobs and fell 4.5 percent year-over-year.
2
Non-seasonally adjusted.
3
Crude oil production data lag this report by one month.

7. 6
The Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey confirmed increases in employment and work-week length.
The revenue index was positive but fell 3.1 points amid rising input prices. Respondents from
educational services to telecommunications commented on the need for deregulation and tax reform.
Additionally, employers responded to labor shortages through wage and benefit increases.
Retailers noted similar concerns in the Texas Retail Outlook, particularly regarding border adjustment
tax uncertainty. The retail sales index increased despite rising input costs and falling sales prices. An
uptick in retail sales4
and the retail sales index improved retailers’ expectations of future economic
conditions.
Real total private employee hourly earnings in Texas jumped 2.4 percent—its largest monthly
increase in over a decade—as labor market conditions appeared to tighten. Monthly wage growth
occurred in all the major metros, but a stagnant trend persisted in Dallas, Fort Worth, and Houston. On
the other hand, San Antonio remained on its two-year upward trend as wages rose 5.4 percent year-
over-year.
Real manufacturing employee hourly earnings were flat in Texas but remained 10.6 percent higher
than the national average. Manufacturing wages increased 1.0 percent in Dallas, just below the state
level. Fort Worth had the highest wages, paying 65.6 percent and 49.7 percent more than the national
and statewide averages, respectively. Manufacturing wage pressure softened in Houston despite large
employment gains. Moreover, San Antonio manufacturing wages remained below the state average
but continued their upward trend.
After dipping in March, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2 percent, but the headline
year-over-year rate fell to 2.2 percent. Natural gas and electricity prices generated the monthly uptick.
The core inflation rate, which excludes the often-volatile energy and food sectors, rose marginally at
0.1 percent. The CPI for Houston fell below 2.1 percent, as falling communication and education prices
offset utility price inflation. Despite the weak CPI numbers, the Federal Reserve remains on track to
raise the federal funds rate in June.
The goods trade deficit widened to $67.6 billion as U.S. commodity exports fell 3.5 percent. Despite a
decline in the Texas trade-weighted value of the dollar5
, Texas commodity and manufacturing
exports fell 6.7 percent and 5.5 percent, respectively—their first contractions of the year. Exports fell
substantially for chemicals, computer and electronic products, and transportation equipment.
However, the overall health of the North American economy should support a continued upward
trend.
4
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas seasonally adjusts Texas nominal retail sales data and the data release
typically lags the Outlook for the Texas Economy by one month. The series is converted into real terms using the
Consumer Price Index.
5
The Texas trade-weighted value of the dollar is generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Its release
typically lags the Outlook for the Texas Economy by one month.

8. 7
Economic Activity
Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information see GDP.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Texas Business Cycle Index.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
United States Texas
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
Jan-07
Sep-07
May-08
Jan-09
Sep-09
May-10
Jan-11
Sep-11
May-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
May-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
May-16
Jan-17
Business Cycle Index
Leading Index (Right Axis)
Texas Business Cycle Index and Leading Index
(Index Jan 2007 = 100)
Real GDP Growth
(Year-over-Year Percent Change)

9. 8
Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Texas Business Cycle Index.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Texas Business Cycle Index.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Austin-Round Rock Dallas-Plano-Irving
Fort Worth-Arlington Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown
San Antonio
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Brownsville-Harlingen
El Paso
Laredo
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission
Major Metros Business Cycle Index
(Quarter-over-Quarter Percent Change)
Border Metros Business Cycle Index
(Quarter -over- Quarter Percent Change)

10. 9
Consumer Confidence Index
(Index Jan 2007 = 100)
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended.
Source: Conference Board
Financial Activity
Note: Seasonally adjusted.
Sources: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation and Federal Reserve Board
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
Jan-11
Jun-11
Nov-11
Apr-12
Sep-12
Feb-13
Jul-13
Dec-13
May-14
Oct-14
Mar-15
Aug-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-16
Apr-17
Texas United States
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Mortgage Bond
30-Year Mortgage Rate and 10-Year Bond Yield
(Percent)

11. 10
Housing
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. Sales for the United States include all existing homes and new single-family homes;
new non-single-family homes are not included. Texas includes all existing and new homes.
For more information, see Housing Sales.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors, and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. For more information, see Housing Sales.
Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan-07
Sep-07
May-08
Jan-09
Sep-09
May-10
Jan-11
Sep-11
May-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
May-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
May-16
Jan-17
United States Texas
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Jan-07
Jun-07
Nov-07
Apr-08
Sep-08
Feb-09
Jul-09
Dec-09
May-10
Oct-10
Mar-11
Aug-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Nov-12
Apr-13
Sep-13
Feb-14
Jul-14
Dec-14
May-15
Oct-15
Mar-16
Aug-16
Jan-17
Austin-Round Rock
Dallas-Plano-Irving
Fort Worth-Arlington
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
San Antonio-New Braunfels
Major Metros Housing Sales
(Index Jan 2007 = 100)
Housing Sales
(Index Jan 2007 = 100)

12. 11
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. Months of inventory for the United States is estimated using weights for all existing
homes and new single-family homes; new non-single-family homes are not included. Texas includes all existing and new homes.
For more information, see Months of Inventory.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors, and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. For more information, see Months of Inventory.
Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Jan-07
Sep-07
May-08
Jan-09
Sep-09
May-10
Jan-11
Sep-11
May-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
May-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
May-16
Jan-17
United States Texas
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Jan-07
Jun-07
Nov-07
Apr-08
Sep-08
Feb-09
Jul-09
Dec-09
May-10
Oct-10
Mar-11
Aug-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Nov-12
Apr-13
Sep-13
Feb-14
Jul-14
Dec-14
May-15
Oct-15
Mar-16
Aug-16
Jan-17
Austin-Round Rock
Dallas-Plano-Irving
Fort Worth-Arlington
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
San Antonio-New Braunfels
Months of Inventory
(Months)
Major Metros Months of Inventory
(Months)

13. 12
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. For single-family homes.
Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Energy
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended.
For more information, see Texas Production of Crude Oil and Rig Count.
Sources: Baker Hughes and U.S. Energy Information Administration
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Jan-11
Jun-11
Nov-11
Apr-12
Sep-12
Feb-13
Jul-13
Dec-13
May-14
Oct-14
Mar-15
Aug-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-16
Apr-17
Existing Home Days on Market
New Home Days on Market
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Jan-07
Sep-07
May-08
Jan-09
Sep-09
May-10
Jan-11
Sep-11
May-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
May-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
May-16
Jan-17
Production of Crude Oil (Right Axis)
Number of Operating Rigs
Texas Home Days on Market
(Days)
Texas Production of Crude Oil and Rig Count
(Count)
(Number of rigs) (Millions of barrels per day)

14. 13
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended.
For more information, see Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration received from Thomson Reuters
Manufacturing
Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Manufacturing Outlook Survey.
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Institute for Supply Management. United States index is adjusted
-50 to be on scale with Texas index.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan-07
Jun-07
Nov-07
Apr-08
Sep-08
Feb-09
Jul-09
Dec-09
May-10
Oct-10
Mar-11
Aug-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Nov-12
Apr-13
Sep-13
Feb-14
Jul-14
Dec-14
May-15
Oct-15
Mar-16
Aug-16
Jan-17
Crude Oil Natural Gas
(Right Axis)
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
United States Texas
Manufacturing Outlook Survey
(Index)
$/Barrel
Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices
($) $/million BTU

15. 14
Services
Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Services Sector Outlook Survey.
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Institute for Supply Management. United States index is adjusted -50 to be on scale
with Texas index.
Note: Seasonally adjusted and inflation adjusted. For more information, see Texas Retail Sector.
Sources: Retail Sector Outlook Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Retail Sales from
Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
United States Texas
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Dallas Federal Reserve Bank
Retail Survey
Retail Sales
(Right Axis)
Texas Retail Sector
(Index; Year-over-Year Percent Change)
Year-over-Year
PercentIndex
Services Sector Outlook Survey
(Index)

16. 15
Employment
Note: Seasonally adjusted, 3-month moving average. April 2017 is preliminary.
For more information, see Employment Growth Rate.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Note: Seasonally adjusted, 3-month moving average. April 2017 is preliminary.
For more information, see Employment Growth Rate.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
United States Texas
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Austin-Round Rock
Dallas-Plano-Irving
Fort Worth-Arlington
Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land
San Antonio
Employment Growth Rate
(Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized Percent Change)
Major Metros Employment Growth Rate
(Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized Percent Change)

17. 16
Note: Seasonally adjusted. April 2017 is preliminary. For more information, see Unemployment Rate.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Major Metros Unemployment Rate
(Percent)
Note: Seasonally adjusted. April 2017 is preliminary. For more information, see Unemployment Rate.
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
United States
Texas
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Jan-07
Sep-07
May-08
Jan-09
Sep-09
May-10
Jan-11
Sep-11
May-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
May-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
May-16
Jan-17
Austin-Round Rock
Dallas-Plano-Irving
Fort Worth-Arlington
Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land
San Antonio
Unemployment Rate
(Percent)

18. 17
Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Unemployment Insurance Claims: Initial Applications.
Source: Department of Labor
Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Unemployment Rate.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
-35
-15
5
25
45
65
85
105
125
145
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
U.S.
Texas
62
63
64
65
66
67
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
United States Texas
Labor Force Participation Rate
(Percent)
Unemployment Insurance Claims: Initial Applications
(Year-over-Year Percentage Change)

19. 18
Note: Seasonally adjusted, 3-month moving average. April 2017 is preliminary.
For more information, see Employment Growth Rate.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Note: Seasonally adjusted, 3-month moving average. April 2017 is preliminary.
For more information, see Employment Growth Rate.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
-20
-18
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
United States Texas
-30
-26
-22
-18
-14
-10
-6
-2
2
6
10
14
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Austin-Round Rock
Dallas-Plano-Irving
Fort Worth-Arlington
Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land
San Antonio
Manufacturing Employment
(Quarter-over-Quarter Percent Change)
Major Metros Manufacturing Employment
(Quarter-over-Quarter Percent Change)

20. 19
Note: Seasonally adjusted, 3-month moving average. April 2017 is preliminary.
For more information, see Employment Growth Rate.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Notes: Inflation adjusted, seasonally adjusted and detrended. April 2017 is preliminary.
For more information, see Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
United States Texas
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Jan-08
Jun-08
Nov-08
Apr-09
Sep-09
Feb-10
Jul-10
Dec-10
May-11
Oct-11
Mar-12
Aug-12
Jan-13
Jun-13
Nov-13
Apr-14
Sep-14
Feb-15
Jul-15
Dec-15
May-16
Oct-16
Mar-17
United States Texas
Construction Employment
(Quarter-over-Quarter Percent Change)
Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings
(Year-over-Year Percent Change)

21. 20
Notes: Inflation adjusted, seasonally adjusted and detrended. April 2017 is preliminary.
For more information, see Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Notes: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. Inflation adjusted. April 2017 is preliminary.
For more information, see Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Jan-08
Jun-08
Nov-08
Apr-09
Sep-09
Feb-10
Jul-10
Dec-10
May-11
Oct-11
Mar-12
Aug-12
Jan-13
Jun-13
Nov-13
Apr-14
Sep-14
Feb-15
Jul-15
Dec-15
May-16
Oct-16
Mar-17
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos Dallas-Plano-Irving
Fort Worth-Arlington Houston-The Woodlands-Sugarland
San Antonio-New Braunfels
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
United States Texas
Manufacturing Employee Hourly Earnings
(Year-over-Year Percent Change)
Major Metros Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings
(Year-over-Year Percent Change)

22. 21
Notes: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. Inflation adjusted. April 2017 is preliminary.
For more information, see Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistic
Prices
Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see CPI Inflation Rates.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Dallas-Plano-Irving
Fort Worth-Arlington
Houston–The Woodlands–Sugar Land
San Antonio-New Braunfels
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
United States Houston
CPI Inflation Rates
(Year-over-Year Percent Change)
Major Metros Manufacturing Employee Hourly Earnings
(Year-over-Year Percent Change)

23. 22
Note: The Houston CPI is composed of the following major groups: Food and Beverages, Housing, Apparel, Transportation,
Medical Care, Recreation, Education and Communication, and Other Goods and Services. The four major components are
included in the graph above.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Trade
Note: Inflation adjusted with Bureau of Labor Statistics export indices. For more information, see Exports.
Sources: International Trade Administration, Foreign Trade Division, and U.S. Census Bureau
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Feb-11
May-11
Aug-11
Nov-11
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Nov-12
Feb-13
May-13
Aug-13
Nov-13
Feb-14
May-14
Aug-14
Nov-14
Feb-15
May-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Feb-16
May-16
Aug-16
Nov-16
Feb-17
Food and Beverages Housing
Transportation Medical
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
United States Texas
CPI Inflation Rates (Houston Components)
(Year-over-Year Percent Change)
Exports (All Commodities)
(Year-over-Year Percent Change)

24. 23
Note: Inflation adjusted with Bureau of Labor Statistics export indices. For more information, see Manufacturing Exports.
Sources: International Trade Administration, Foreign Trade Division, and U.S. Census Bureau
Note: For more information, see Exports.
Sources: International Trade Administration, Foreign Trade Division, and U.S. Census Bureau
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
United States
Texas
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Netherlands
Mexico
China
Canada
Brazil
ROW
Texas Exports by Country
(Percent)
Manufacturing Exports
(Year-over-Year Percent Change)

25. 24
Note: For more information, see Real Trade Weighted Value of U.S. Dollar.
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Jan-07
Sep-07
May-08
Jan-09
Sep-09
May-10
Jan-11
Sep-11
May-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
May-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
May-16
Jan-17
United States Texas
Real Trade Weighted Value of U.S. Dollar
(Index January 2007 = 100)

26. i
ADVISORY COMMITTEE
MAYS BUSINESS SCHOOL
Texas A&M University
2115 TAMU
College Station, TX 77843-2115
http://recenter.tamu.edu
979-845-2031
DIRECTOR
GARY W. MALER
MARIO A. ARRIAGA
Conroe
RUSSELL CAIN
Port Lavaca
ALVIN COLLINS
Andrews
JACQUELYN K. HAWKINS
Austin
DOUG ROBERTS, CHAIRMAN
Austin
DOUG JENNINGS, VICE CHAIRMAN
Fort Worth
BESA MARTIN
Boerne
TED NELSON
Houston
C. CLARK WELDER
San Antonio
BILL JONES, EX-OFFICIO
Temple