10. Temperatureanomaly
(b) Observed change in surface temperature 1901–2012
−0.6
−0.4
−0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
1850 1900 1950 2000
Decadal average
−0.6 −0.4 −0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.25 1.5 1.75 2.5
Year
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_SummaryVolume_FINAL.pdf
根拠:スーパーコンピュータで過去の気候変
動をうまく再現できるシミュレーションモデ
ルをつくり、それを元に未来を予測
11. 原因:人間の排出した温室効果ガス 特にCO2
previous two. This results in an RF of –0.04 [–0.08 to 0.00] W m–2
between the most recent minimum in 2008 and the
1986 minimum. {8.4}
• The total natural RF from solar irradiance changes and stratospheric volcanic aerosols made only a small contribution to
the net radiative forcing throughout the last century, except for brief periods after large volcanic eruptions. {8.5}
AnthropogenicNatural
Level of
confidence
Radiative forcing by emissions and drivers
1.68 [1.33 to 2.03]
0.97 [0.74 to 1.20]
0.18 [0.01 to 0.35]
0.17 [0.13 to 0.21]
0.23 [0.16 to 0.30]
0.10 [0.05 to 0.15]
-0.15 [-0.34 to 0.03]
-0.27 [-0.77 to 0.23]
-0.55 [-1.33 to -0.06]
-0.15 [-0.25 to -0.05]
0.05 [0.00 to 0.10]
2.29 [1.13 to 3.33]
VH
H
H
VH
M
M
M
H
L
M
M
H
CO2
CH4
Halo-
carbons
N2
O
CO
NMVOC
NOx
Emitted
compound
Aerosols and
precursors
(Mineral dust,
SO2
, NH3
,
Organic carbon
and Black carbon)
Well-mixedgreenhousegasesShortlivedgasesandaerosols Resulting atmospheric
drivers
CO2
CO2
H2
Ostr
O3
CH4
O3
CFCs HCFCs
CO2
CH4
O3
N2
O
CO2
CH4
O3
Nitrate CH4
O3
Black carbon
Mineral dust
Organic carbon
NitrateSulphate
Cloud adjustments
due to aerosols
Albedo change
due to land use
Changes in
solar irradiance
Total anthropogenic
2011http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_SummaryVolume_FINAL.pdf
CO2
メタン
代用フロン
窒素酸化物
温暖化への影響度 推測の信頼性
11
人
為
的
天
然
分解されやすいガス
エアロゾル
エアロゾル由来の雲
地面による光の反射
太陽活動