Residential Focus, a presentation by Aaron Lewis. Covering things to watch for 2017 real estate in the Central Valley, Stanislaus County in particular. Presentation given 3/6/2017 in Modesto, CA

1. KEY ISSUES
• 2017 forecast
• Why so few comps? And the compounding
problem of low inventory
• Seemingly “psychotic” nature of buyer
attention
• The “Miranda Warning” for Appraisers

2. 2017 FORECAST:
DEMAND
• Number of buyers
SUPPLY

3. DEMAND > $500,000

4. DEMAND $350-$500K

5. DEMAND < $250,000

6. DEMAND < $250,000

7. 2017 FORECAST:
DEMAND
• Number of buyers:
Depends on price
• Interest rates:
Little change
• Household income:
SUPPLY

8. MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME
STANISLAUS COUNTY 2007-2014
Essentially unchanged

9. 2017 FORECAST:
DEMAND
• Number of buyers:
Depends on price
• Interest rates:
Little change
• Household income:
Flat
SUPPLY

10. RECENT PRICE INCREASES
As a percentage, how much
has the SFR average sold price
in Stanislaus County increased
during the last 5 years?
_____%
(Jan 2012 – Jan 2017)

11. RECENT PRICE INCREASES
99.3% INCREASE
($153,000 to $305,000)

12. 2017 FORECAST:
DEMAND
• Number of buyers:
Depends on price
• Interest rates:
Little change
• Household income:
Flat
SUPPLY
• Inventory of homes:
Down, generally

13. INVENTORY DOWN, GENERALLY
Number of
homes for sale
and new listings,
Stanislaus
County during
last 3 years

14. INVENTORY WAY DOWN
<$250,000 IN LAST 2 YEARS
Number of
homes for sale
and sold,
Stanislaus County
during last 3 years
# sold down 32.3%
from 3 years ago

15. 2017 FORECAST:
DEMAND
• Number of buyers:
Depends on price
• Interest rates:
Little change
• Household income:
Flat
SUPPLY
• Inventory of homes
Down, generally
• Inventory of
affordable homes:
Down significantly

17. The compounding
problem of low
inventory

18. The seemingly
psychotic nature
of buyer attention

19. The
Miranda Warning
for Appraisers

20. Miranda Warning for
Appraisers
“You have the right to
remain silent. Anything you
say may be used against
you by an underwriter.”

21. Miranda Warning for
Appraisers

22. Miranda Warning for
Appraisers
The Appraisal was completed “AS IS,” however there are some
items the appraiser noted that were missing w/cost to cures (see
below). We will need to review and likely anything deemed “health
and safety” will be required to be corrected. UW condition.