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Recent Initiatives to Improve the
       Regulation and Supervision
        of Private Capital Flows

       Presentation by William R White
              Economic Adviser
Head of the Monetary and Economic Department
      Bank for International Settlements

          Reserve Bank of India
         Mumbai, 14 February 2001
Changing Attitudes to Capital Flows (I)


    • Long-term cycles in capital flows.
    • Attitudes remain conditioned by the
      “impossible trinity”.




2
Changing Attitudes to Capital Flows (II)

     • Under the gold standard.
     • Under Bretton Woods.
     • Post Bretton Woods.




3
Changing Attitudes to Capital Flows (III)

    • Domestic credit excesses in Mexico
      (1994), East Asia (1997).
    • Exacerbated by international capital
      flows.
    • Led to suggestions in the Rey Report
      (1996), the Willard Report (1999) and the
      Capital Flows Group of the FSF (2000).
4
Changing Attitudes to Capital Flows (IV)

    • Today’s “conventional wisdom”.
    • Corner solutions for exchange rates.
    • An independent monetary policy (yours
      or someone else’s).
    • Liberalised capital flows.


5
Measures to Cope with “Excessive” Flows


    • Improved data, disclosure and indicators
      of vulnerability.
    • Measures directed to creditors.
    • Measures directed to debtors.



6
Measures to Improve Data, Disclosure
      and Indicators of Vulnerability (I)

    • Transparency should leave both debtors
      and creditors less exposed.
    • Yet transparency may not be sufficient.
    • The downsides?



7
Measures to Improve Data, Disclosure
      and Indicators of Vulnerability (II)
    • The need for better debtor side statistics
      (liabilities and FX assets).
    • The need for better creditor side statistics
      (improvements to BIS data).
    • Both debtors and creditors are exposed.
    • The downside?

8
Measures to Improve Data, Disclosure
      and Indicators of Vulnerability (III)
    • The desirability of improving disclosure
      concerning position taking.
    • The Patat and Fisher initiatives.
    • The downside?




9
Measures to Improve Data, Disclosure
       and Indicators of Vulnerability (IV)
     • The need for better indicators of
       exchange rate “vulnerability”
     • Shorter-term vulnerability vs longer-
       term vulnerability.
     • Vulnerabilities in the banking system; a
       related problem.

10
Measures Directed to Creditors (I)

     •   Need for better internal governance.
     •   Need for more market discipline.
     •   Need for better supervisory incentives.
     •   The downside?




11
Measures Directed to Creditors (II)

     • The role of the old Capital Accord.
     • The role of the new Capital Accord.
     • Procyclicality and the role of the
       supervisors.
     • The downside?


12
Measures Directed to Debtors (I)

     • Any domestic bias to short-term inflows
       should be removed.
     • Monitor closely the FX exposure of the
       government, banks and corporate sector.
     • The downside?



13
Measures Directed to Debtors (II)

     • Develop domestic bond markets.
     • The downside?




14
Implementing Policy Recommendations

     •   The role of the FSF.
     •   The role of the IMF and World Bank.
     •   The role of the market.
     •   The role of self-interest.
     •   Technical assistance.


15

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2001 02 india reserve_bankindia_14feb2001[1]

  • 1. Recent Initiatives to Improve the Regulation and Supervision of Private Capital Flows Presentation by William R White Economic Adviser Head of the Monetary and Economic Department Bank for International Settlements Reserve Bank of India Mumbai, 14 February 2001
  • 2. Changing Attitudes to Capital Flows (I) • Long-term cycles in capital flows. • Attitudes remain conditioned by the “impossible trinity”. 2
  • 3. Changing Attitudes to Capital Flows (II) • Under the gold standard. • Under Bretton Woods. • Post Bretton Woods. 3
  • 4. Changing Attitudes to Capital Flows (III) • Domestic credit excesses in Mexico (1994), East Asia (1997). • Exacerbated by international capital flows. • Led to suggestions in the Rey Report (1996), the Willard Report (1999) and the Capital Flows Group of the FSF (2000). 4
  • 5. Changing Attitudes to Capital Flows (IV) • Today’s “conventional wisdom”. • Corner solutions for exchange rates. • An independent monetary policy (yours or someone else’s). • Liberalised capital flows. 5
  • 6. Measures to Cope with “Excessive” Flows • Improved data, disclosure and indicators of vulnerability. • Measures directed to creditors. • Measures directed to debtors. 6
  • 7. Measures to Improve Data, Disclosure and Indicators of Vulnerability (I) • Transparency should leave both debtors and creditors less exposed. • Yet transparency may not be sufficient. • The downsides? 7
  • 8. Measures to Improve Data, Disclosure and Indicators of Vulnerability (II) • The need for better debtor side statistics (liabilities and FX assets). • The need for better creditor side statistics (improvements to BIS data). • Both debtors and creditors are exposed. • The downside? 8
  • 9. Measures to Improve Data, Disclosure and Indicators of Vulnerability (III) • The desirability of improving disclosure concerning position taking. • The Patat and Fisher initiatives. • The downside? 9
  • 10. Measures to Improve Data, Disclosure and Indicators of Vulnerability (IV) • The need for better indicators of exchange rate “vulnerability” • Shorter-term vulnerability vs longer- term vulnerability. • Vulnerabilities in the banking system; a related problem. 10
  • 11. Measures Directed to Creditors (I) • Need for better internal governance. • Need for more market discipline. • Need for better supervisory incentives. • The downside? 11
  • 12. Measures Directed to Creditors (II) • The role of the old Capital Accord. • The role of the new Capital Accord. • Procyclicality and the role of the supervisors. • The downside? 12
  • 13. Measures Directed to Debtors (I) • Any domestic bias to short-term inflows should be removed. • Monitor closely the FX exposure of the government, banks and corporate sector. • The downside? 13
  • 14. Measures Directed to Debtors (II) • Develop domestic bond markets. • The downside? 14
  • 15. Implementing Policy Recommendations • The role of the FSF. • The role of the IMF and World Bank. • The role of the market. • The role of self-interest. • Technical assistance. 15