This document provides a summary of the 2023 State of the Wine Industry virtual event, which included presentations from industry experts on topics such as wine consumption trends in the US, the impact of inflation on wine industry costs, supply chain challenges, and expectations for wine price increases in 2023. Key points from the presentations include declining wine consumption among younger consumers, rising costs of materials, glass shortages impacting producers, and widespread anticipation of small bottle price increases.
2023 State of the Wine Industry Virtual Event Preview
1. 2023 State of the Wine
Industry Report
Virtual Event
January 2023
Wednesday, January 18, 2023
9:00 a.m. – 10:30 a.m. PST
2. State of the Wine Industry
Housekeeping
• All lines have been placed on mute to prevent backgroundnoise.
• Please feel free to submit any questions in the Q&A panel.
• We will send a link to the recordingafter the webinar.
2
3. Featured Speakers
Rob McMillan
EVP & Founder
SVB Wine Division
Amy Hoopes
Chief Revenue Officer
The Wine Group
Paul Mabray
CEO
Pix
Pix
Philana Bouvier
President
Demeine Estates
3
4. 4
Which age bands show the best/worst growth in consumption?
Good news: >60 is growing share Bad news: <60 is dropping share
Change in Share
2007 - 2021
Source:Customer Vineyard,SovosShipCompliant
5. 5
20.13%
22.28%
10.24%
5.19%
0.91% 0.39% 0.64% 0.00%
3.31%
-0.62% -0.90%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Percent
Growth
in
Gallons
GrowthRate
Percent change in total US Wine Consumptionby Volume
A second consecutive year of negative growth
Source:Shanken's ImpactDatabank ReviewandForecast,2021, 2022 est.
LinearTrend
7. 7
15%
28% 29% 29%
49%
20%
29%
26%
29%
18%
17%
13%
10%
16%
8%
17%
11%
8%
4%
2%
16%
6% 7%
5%
3%
9% 9% 10%
8%
4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
21-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
Percent
of
age
group
responding
Age Range
Wine Beer Spirits Flav Malt Bev Hard Seltzers RTDs/Cider
Q: What wouldyou most likely bring to share at a party?
At least a 20%
drop in mind-
share from +65
to other age
bands
Wine
Wine
Wine
Wine
Wine
Source: TheHarris Poll
Survey conducted onlineby The Harris Poll on behalf of the Wine Executive Exchange November 9-11,2021
among 1,949 U.S.adults ages 21+.
What alcoholicbeverage would you most likely bring to a party?
Half the consumers older than 65 bring wine. What do younger consumers bring?
8. 8
25%
20%
25%
30% 31%
37%
12%
10%
7%
11% 11%
11%
35%
36% 36%
28% 24% 14%
13%
13%
15% 15%
16%
16%
16% 20% 17% 16% 19% 23%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
21-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70+
Percent
of
Sample
Age Bands
Core Wine Drinker
Marginal Wine
Drinker
Alcohol, not wine
Infrequent Alcohol
Abstainer
Source:Wine MarketCouncil –U.S. Wine Consumer SegmentationSurveys
Core and marginal wine consumers increase share as they age
Non-wine drinkers have lower share as they age. Where is the share going?
+ 60 Consumers
Definitions
Core Consumers Drink wine at least once a
week.
Marginal
Consumers
Drink wine at least every 2 - 3
months. Also includes those
who drink wine 1 - 3 times per
month.
Alcohol, NotWine Drink alcohol but not wine,
every 2 - 3 months
Infrequent
Alcohol
Consume less than every 2-3
months
Abstainers Don't drink alcohol
TOTAL TOTAL
2017 TREND 2022
Core 22% 18%
Marginal 19% 15%
Not Wine 26% 29%
Infrequent 9% 10%
Abstainer 24% 28%
10. 10
Wine Beer Spirits
Hard
Seltzer
None of
these
Is low calorie 10% 9% 9% 24% 56%
Is low carb 11% 7% 14% 21% 56%
Contains less sugar 9% 13% 14% 21% 52%
Is a good option when dieting 18% 4% 9% 18% 59%
Is healthier than other alc. bev. 34% 6% 5% 13% 48%
Is lower in alcohol 14% 23% 1% 22% 47%
Source:Wine MarketCouncil
Associationof wellness attributes by type of drink
Hard seltzer has more health associations versus wine
Hard seltzer has more perceived
health associationsversus wine
for the wide population.
For older consumers, wine still
resonatessomewhat as the
healthier beverage choice overall
11. 11
$0.0
$200.0
$400.0
$600.0
$800.0
$1,000.0
$1,200.0
$1,400.0
$1,600.0
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Millions
$
Years
Total Annual Advertising Spend for AlcoholicBeverages
Beer
Spirits
Wine
FMB
Millionsof Dollars
Total Alcohol Beverage Advertising Spend*
Can our industry compete with other categories?
Source:Shanken ImpactDatabank
*Comprehensive view. Includes TV, radio, web,
onlinevideo, mobile, magazines and more
14. 14
Three years of small harvest yields in CA
A year with good yields today is unwelcome
Source:CaliforniaDepartmentof Food and Agriculture
3.3
3.0
3.1
2.9
2.8
3.8
3.1
3.2
3.1
3.7 3.6
3.4
4.0
4.2
3.9
3.7
4.0 4.0
4.3
3.9
3.4
3.6
3.7
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Millions
of
Tons
California Crush ofWinegrapes
*2022 Estimated
15. 86%
28% 28% 27% 26% 25%
6% 4% 3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Glass Barrels Labels Equipment Cartons /
Corrugate
Corks None Capsules Other
Percent
of
Respondents
Supply Category
Wineries supply chain issues by production category
Glass has and continues to be a problem
Source:SVBStateof the Wine IndustrySurvey 15
*Respondents could selectmorethan one option
17. 17
14%
39%
42%
1% 1%
3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Increase in
premium and
increase in
coverage
Increase in
premium and
decrease in
coverage
Premium and
coverage
similar to
prior year
Decrease in
premium and
increase in
coverage
Decrease in
premium and
decrease in
coverage
Could not
acquire
property
insurance
Percent
of
Respondents
The costs of doing business are increasing
Climate change is causing some of the cost increases
1%
19%
33%
22%
12% 12%
1%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Severe
Negative
Impact
Substantial
Negative
Impact
Moderate
Negative
Impact
Modest
Negative
Impact
Minimal
Negative
Impact
No
Significant
Impact
Net
Positive
Impact
Obtaining Insurance Impact of ClimateChange
53% report moderate
or worse impact from
climatechange
Source:SVBStateof the Wine IndustrySurvey
18. 18
8%
12%
3% 3%
48%
52%
25% 26%
44%
36%
72% 71%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2019 2020 2021 2022
Percent
of
Respondents
Decrease Hold
Increase Linear (Decrease)
Linear (Hold) Linear (Increase)
Annual Forecast of Hoped for Bottle Price Increases in 2023
Widespread increases expected, but probably small
0
1% 2%
26%
47%
22%
2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Percent
of
Respondents
2023 Size of Expected Increase
Annual Trendof Increases
Source:SVBStateof the Wine IndustrySurvey
21. 21
11%
32%
10% 10%
13%
10%
13%
1%
8% 7%
10%
21%
24%
29%
2%
8%
13%
14%
25%
23%
17%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
The most difficult year
in our history
One of our most
challenging years ever
A disappointing year Neither a good year or
a bad year
A good year One of our better
years
The best year in our
history
Percent
of
Respondents
Quality of Year Rating
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Linear (2020) Linear (2022)
How was your year?
Premium wineries report a difficult 2020, but a rebound since
2021 was a spectacular year
2022 wasn’t as good, but it’s
hard to top ‘21
Source:SVBStateof the Wine IndustrySurvey
22. 22
SVB Winery Net Sentiment Index
Despite reporting a good year in 2022,wineries are very concernedabout tomorrow
-55
19
9
-2
-30
-12
-17
-9
-32
-24
-15
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Economy Consumer
Demand
Sales
Channels
Grape Supply Labor Alcohol Laws Capital Foreign
Competition
Substitutes Water
Availability*
Overall
Net
Sentiment
Index
Industry Sentiments
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source:SVBStateof the Wine IndustrySurvey
*WaterAvailabilityfirsttrackedin2021
23. 23
12/31/2012 12/31/2013 12/31/2014 12/31/2015 12/31/2016 12/31/2017 12/31/2018 12/31/2019 12/31/2020 12/31/2021 9/30/2022
Gross Margin 53.4% 54.8% 56.8% 56.9% 57.4% 58.5% 57.4% 57.1% 59.0% 55.6% 57.5%
Sales Growth 7.7% 9.2% 11.9% 8.8% 9.6% 3.1% 5.3% 5.6% -0.6% 18.6% 9.7%
Pretax Profit 6.9% 6.6% 8.0% 9.6% 10.2% 9.9% 8.3% 5.0% 7.4% 14.6% 10.2%
18.6%
9.7%
45.0%
47.0%
49.0%
51.0%
53.0%
55.0%
57.0%
59.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Gross
Margin
Sales
Growth
and
Pretax
Profit
9
months
2022
Financial Performance of Premium Wineries
Sales growth is slowing – but it’s growth off a great year!
Source:SVBPeerGroup AnalysisDataBase
Median case production in the database is 18,000
cases, with a range of 1,000 to 2.3 million cases.
The average retail bottle price is about $28.
24. 24
Change in Avg. Size Winery Channel Mix
The Small Premium End of the Market Stabilized in 2022
Wholesale - On Premise
19%
Wholesale - Off Premise
11%
Tasting Room
29%
Wine Club
22%
Mailing List/Subscription
4%
Online
9%
Other
2%
Exports
2%
Phone
2%
2021
Wholesale - On
Premise
18%
Wholesale - Off
Premise
10%
Tasting Room
30%
Wine Club
24%
Mailing
List/Subscription
4%
Online
9%
Other
2% Exports
2%
Phone
1%
2022
Source:SVBStateof the Wine IndustrySurvey
25. Trend of Sales Channel Mix (Value)
Premium wineries report a difficult 2020, but a rebound since
25
*Collection of Online channel data began in 2020; Other includes Export and Phone sales
6% 6%
7% 6% 5%
11%
10%
4% 4% 4%
10% 9% 9%
17%
19% 18%
11% 10%
17%
15%
11%
19% 18%
22% 23% 22% 22%
24%
27%
28% 28%
29% 30%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Percent
of
Total
Sales
($)
Year
Other Mailing List/Subscription Online Wholesale Off-Premise Wholesale On-Premise Wine Club Tasting Room
Source:SVBStateof the Wine IndustrySurvey
27. 27
Annual Average Tasting Room Purchase by Region
Napa and Sonoma showing great results early in 2022
Source:SVBDirectto Consumer Surveys
$52.23
$110.99 $107.07 $85.54
$145.14 $119.11
$233.17
$162.31
$377.87
$-
$50.00
$100.00
$150.00
$200.00
$250.00
$300.00
$350.00
$400.00
$450.00
Rest of US Washington Santa Barbara Rest of
California
Oregon Paso Robles Sonoma County Average Napa County
Purchase
Amount
Region
Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-21 Mar-22
28. 28
Why was tasting room visitation down in 2022?
Is it a trend or part of post-COVID reopening?
155.7%
43.6%
8.8%
0.4%
-17.2% -17.4% -19.3% -16.3% -19.1% -13.7%
145.8%
56.8%
23.6%
16.1%
-3.1% -7.2% -9.5% -6.2% -6.3% -9.7%
-50.0%
0.0%
50.0%
100.0%
150.0%
-40.0%
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
140.0%
160.0%
180.0%
Jan-2022 Feb-2022 Mar-2022 Apr-2022 May-2022 Jun-2022 Jul-2022 Aug-2022 Sep-2022 Oct-2022
Tasting
Room
Sales
Visitation
Months
Tasting room sales vs sales in the same month, prior
Decline
Source:CommunityBenchmark
29. 29
-0.05
-0.04
-0.03
-0.02
-0.01
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22
Trailing
12
Month
Percentage
Growth
Rates
Visitors TR Sales Total DTC Sales
Trailing 12 month growth trends of West Coast Visitation
Is it a new trend or a ripple from post-COVID reopening?
Source:CommunityBenchmark
31. 2022 Harvest Yields
Over half reported lower than normal yields again.
Source:SVBStateof the Wine IndustrySurvey
13%
45%
24%
15%
3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
At or near record low yields Weaker than historical average
yields
Close to average historical
yields
Better than historical average
yields
At or slightly below record high
yields
Percent
of
Respondents
Harvest Yield Rating
31
34. 75% of respondents reported harvest quality as good to excellent
Oregon & Washington topped reported quality but 2022 will be a very good year.
34
5.26%
8.33%
6%
12%
15%
19%
21%
27%
35%
37%
39%
43%
44%
45%
59%
41%
45%
38%
47%
47%
48%
32%
45%
38%
48%
34%
18%
18%
27%
19%
24%
19%
10%
16%
8%
19%
7%
21%
12%
24%
12%
14%
8%
6%
6%
11%
8%
6%
6%
10%
1%
2%
5%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Paso Robles
San Luis Obispo County
New York
Sierra Foothills
Other
Sonoma County
Napa County
Virginia
Santa Barbara
Santa Cruz & Monterey
Oregon
Washington
Percent of total respondents that rated a given quality response in the survey
Excellent Good Average Below Average Poor
2%
7%
16%
45%
30%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Overall Harvest Quality
Source:SVBStateof the Wine IndustrySurvey
Harvest Yield
35. Reported Year End Volume and Value Changes
With light harvests,volume changes are less than value changes
35
10% 10%
-2%
17%
6%
9%
8%
6%
17%
4%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Percent
Sales
Growth
Year
Change in $ Sales Change in Case Sales
Source:SVBStateof the Wine IndustrySurvey