2. 1. Miguel Cabrera
The perennial MVP candidate had a
“down” year in 2014. However, 99.9% of
baseball would have called it a career
year (.313, 25 HRs, 109 RBIs). This 12 year
veteran has a ton of miles on those legs
(turns 32 in April) and there is a bevy of
young talent at 1B gunning for the title of
#1 First Baseman in the game… but
Cabrera hangs onto it for 2015. He should
go in the first half of the 1st round in all
fantasy drafts.
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Cabrera OPS Vs. League Average OPS
Miguel Cabrera OPS League Average OPS
3. 2. Paul Goldschmidt
Goldschmidt’s 2014 campaign was cut short
after taking a fastball to his left hand in early
August. He was on pace for another MVP
quality season and has developed into one of
the premier 1st basemen in the game today. It’s
fair to expect .290+, 25+ HRs, 100+ RBI’s, and
double digit steals out of Goldschmidt in 2015.
It wouldn’t be a reach to take him in the first
round.
0.437
0.338
0.385
0.356
0.511
0.359
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0-0 0-1 1-0 1-1 2-0 2-1
Deadly Early in the Count
Career Batting Average by Count
4. 3. Jose Abreu
Abreu came into the majors swinging in 2014.
He lead all of MLB with 25 homers through
June. After June the power numbers slowed
down (11 HRs after July 1st), but the contact
picked up (.352 BA after July 1st). At 28 years
old, there is a very real chance this just the
beginning of Abreu’s prime. 2015 should be
another monster year for the White Sox slugger
as the team spent the offseason surrounding
him with more talent. The acquisitions of Melky
Cabrera and Adam LaRoche should help boost
Abreu’s RBI numbers and give him some
protection in the heart of the lineup.
April/March
.270 BA
10 HR
32 RBI
May
.241 BA
5 HR
10 RBI
June
.313 BA
10 HR
22 RBI
July
.374 BA
6 HR
19 RBI
August
.376 BA
2 HR
16 RBI
Sept/Oct
.298 BA
3 HR
8 RBI
5. 4. Edwin Encarnacion
Encarnacion has earned a reputation for being a bit
injury prone. Even though he missed 34 games in 2014
he still managed to hit 34 HRs and drive in 98 runs for
the Blue Jays. The arrival of Justin Smoak in Toronto will
almost certainly mean more DH time for Encarnacion
(provided Smoak hits well enough to stay in the lineup).
As long as he plays enough 1B to retain eligibility, this
shouldn’t concern potentially fantasy owners as it should
help to keep him healthier in 2015.
I would look for Edwin’s 2015 numbers to resemble his
2014 stat line with a chance to improve if he can stay
healthy.
2012
.280 BA
42 HR
110 RBI
2013
.272 BA
36 HR
104 RBI
2014
.268 BA
34 HR
98 RBI
6. 5. Anthony Rizzo
At 25, Rizzo may actually find himself being one
of the veterans in the suddenly exciting Cubs lineup in
2015.
The Cubs would love to see Rizzo become more
consistent with his Home/Road splits and really be the
guy to count on every day in the middle of a very
young lineup. He certainly seems to have the talent to
take that next step.
As far as 2015 stats go, I don’t believe another 30+ HR,
.280+ BA season is far fetched. His RBI total will
depend on how the young talent around him performs.
Rizzo should be a very strong fantasy option in 2015.
7. 6. Adrian Gonzalez
2006-2008
(Average Season)
.288 BA
30 HR
100 RBI
2009-2011
(Average Season)
.306 BA
33 HR
106 RBI
2012-2014
(Average Season)
.290
22 HR
108 RBI
Gonzalez has been one of the better first basemen in the game for the past decade. His power
numbers have declined slightly since leaving Boston for the Chavez Ravine, but he has
remained an RBI machine. Gonzalez has also been one of the more durable players in the
game throughout his career.
He is a safe bet for another .280 BA,
20+ HR, 100+ RBI campaign in 2015.
8. 7. Albert Pujols
Pujols isn’t quite the feared hitter that he was in St. Louis,
but he quietly put together a really strong 2014 season:
.272 BA, 37 doubles, 28 HR, 105 RBI
I see no reason that Pujols couldn’t put up similar
numbers in 2015. He remains a very solid fantasy option
even if he is no longer the elite 1B he used to be.
9. 8. Prince Fielder
It seems that many have already
forgotten about Fielder, but prior to
2014’s injury shortened season he
was remarkably healthy and
consistent. From 2006-2013 Fielder
had 8 consecutive seasons of 157+
games played, 25+ HRs, and 100+
RBIs. Prince was given a clean bill of
health and appears to be 100%
heading into 2015.
If your league is sleeping on the
Rangers’ slugger, take advantage. I
think there is a great chance Fielder
greatly outperforms his ADP this
season. I’d look for a return to his
normal numbers in 2015 (.285 BA,
30 HRs, 100+ RBIs).
Prince Fielder Average Season 2006-2013
Batting Average Home Runs RBI .OPS
.286 35 108 .919
10. 9. Freddie Freeman
Freeman took a step back offensively in 2014. He still
had a very respectable year (.288 BA, 18 HR, 78 RBI)
for a team that really struggled to score runs.
On paper, the Braves didn’t do Freeman any favors
going into 2015 as they traded away Evan Gattis, Justin
Upton, and Jason Heyward over the winter. The Braves
will be counting on Freeman to return to his 2013 form
(.319 BA, 23 HR, 109 RBI) in 2015. Even if he does, I
believe he will struggle to match the RBI totals as the
lineup around him just doesn’t seem to be very strong.
Freeman is a riskier pick in 2015 than he has been the
past few years.
11. 10. Victor Martinez
Martinez has strung together 2 healthy
seasons in a row after sitting out all of 2012
with a torn ACL. Health hasn’t always been a
given for the 36 year old, but when healthy
Martinez is one of the best left-handed
hitters in the game. He had his power stroke
working in 2014 (career high 32 HRs) and his
patience at the plate lead to a league leading
.409 OBP.
A healthy Victor Martinez is a borderline elite
option at 1st base, but another offseason
knee surgery makes projecting his 2015 a
little murky. If his knees are healthy enough
to allow him to gain eligibility at Catcher
during inter-league play, Martinez suddenly
becomes an even more valuable asset… but
as of now that appears to be unlikely.
