This document provides an economic review and outlook for South Africa. It summarizes key economic indicators such as GDP growth, business confidence, unemployment, household debt, education outcomes, and fiscal challenges. South Africa's economic growth has averaged just 0.9% in recent years, well below emerging market peers, with high unemployment rates and poor education outcomes posing major structural challenges. While the country has strong potential, restoring policy certainty, improving business confidence, and reducing fiscal deficits will be important to boost investment and lift growth. Overall, the economic outlook remains constrained.
4. 0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
33
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
% year-on-year
SA rate of growth in household residential mortgages
Average inflation since 2006
5. South Africa vs emerging market manufacturing
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
165
170
175
180
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Index Emerging market industrial production at a record high
SA manufacturing
Emerging market industrial production
5
6. 6
South Africa business confidence (BER)
Business
confidence has
been depressed
for 10 years
Index
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
7. 5
IMMEDIATE ECONOMIC
CHALLENGES FACING THE
COUNTRY
Clarify transformation policies
Lift business confidence
Restore fiscal discipline
Reform SOEs
Dramatically reduce corruption
1
2
3
4
5
8. 41%SOUTH AFRICA’S ECONOMIC
TURNAROUND SCORE
As at mid-August 2018
Below 30%: stagnation, risk of recession, weak confidence
30% to 50%: positive but sluggish growth, constrained budgets
50% to 70%: growth around 2% to 3%, improving fiscal position
Above 70%: strong growth, vibrant labour market
10. GRADE 1
1.24 million
GRADE 10
1.11 million
GRADE 12
687 K
10
South Africa school enrolment
HUGE
DROPOUT
OF STUDENTS
11. 11
SA university graduation rates
%, Percent graduation rate
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Rhodes
University University
of JHB
University
of CT Stellenbosch
University
University
of the
Witwatersrand
University
of the
Free State
University
of
Pretoria
University of
KwaZulu-Natal
UNISA
17% of
students
obtain their
degree
15. Emerging market corporate debt as % of GDP
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
China
Korea
Chile
Israel
Turkey
Malaysia
Hungary
Czech Rep
Russian Federation
Thailand
Saudi Arabia
Poland
India
Brazil
South Africa
Colombia
Mexico
Indonesia
Argentina
% of GDP, end 2017
15
24. 24
Breakdown of the world economy – estimated in 2017
South Africa
Australia
South America
USA
Canada
Sub- Saharan Africa
Euro-area
Russia
China
Japan
India
UK
Germany
Brazil
24.3%
15%15.8%
7.4%
6.1%
4.6%
3.3%
3.3%
2.6%
2.1%
1.7%
1.9%
1.9%
0,4%
29. 29
Consensus 2018 GDP forecast for US and euro area
1,6
1,8
2,0
2,2
2,4
2,6
2,8
3,0
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
% year-on-year
Euro area GDP forecast 2018
US GDP forecast 2018
31. Legal Disclaimer
Information and Content
The information and content (collectively 'information') provided herein are provided by STANLIB Asset Management
(“STANLIBAM”) as general information for information purposes only. STANLIB does not guarantee the suitability or potential
value of any information or particular investment source. Any information herein is not intended nor does it constitute financial,
tax, legal, investment, or other advice. Before making any decision or taking any action regarding your finances, you should
consult a qualified Financial Adviser. Nothing contained herein constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement or
offer by STANLIBAM.
Copyright
The information provided herein are the possession of STANLIBAM and are protected by copyright and intellectual property
laws. The information may not be reproduced or distributed without the explicit consent of STANLIBAM.
Disclaimer
STANLIB has taken care to ensure that all information provided herein is true and accurate. STANLIB will therefore not be held
responsible for any inaccuracies in the information herein. STANLIBAM shall not be responsible and disclaims all loss, liability
or expense of any nature whatsoever which may be attributable (directly, indirectly or consequentially) to the use of the
information provided.
STANLIB Asset Management Limited
Registration No: 1969/002753/07. A Financial Services Provider licensed under the Financial Advisory and Intermediary
Services Act, 37 of 2002. FSP license No: 719.
31