The Q310 BMI Hong Kong Retail report forecasts that total retail sales for the Chinese special administrative region (SAR) will grow from a forecast HKD279.13bn (US$35.88bn) in 2010 to HKD338.34bn (US$43.38bn) by 2014. Rising disposable incomes and a strong tourism industry are key factors behind the forecast growth. Hong Kong's nominal GDP is forecast to be US$221.31bn in 2010. We predict average annual GDP growth of 3.3% through to 2014. With the population increasing by 0.7% over this period, GDP per capita is forecast to rise from US$31,131 in 2010 to US$37,060 by 2014. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$18,488 in 2010 to US$22,078 by 2014. Tourist spending contributes significantly to Hong Kong retail sales, and the Hong Kong Tourist Board (HKTB) has provisionally reported that tourism arrivals for 2009 stood at 29.59mn, an increase of 0.3% on 2008. Based on data from the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC), we forecast tourism expenditure to reach US$22.84bn in 2010 ' up from an estimated US$20.93bn in 2009 ' and to hit US$30.48bn by 2014. Retail sub-sectors that are forecast to achieve healthy sales growth throughout the forecast period include automotives, which are predicted to increase by nearly 27%, from US$1.28bn in 2010 to US$1.62bn by 2014. Over the counter (OTC) pharmaceuticals sales are forecast to rise by more than 20%, from US$0.25bn in 2010 to US$0.30bn by 2014. Consumer electronics sales are predicted to grow from US$3.89bn in 2010 to US$4.58bn, a rise of nearly 18%, by the end of the forecast period. Retail sales for the BMI universe of Asian countries in 2010 are a forecast US$2.66trn. China and India are predicted to account for almost 91% of regional retail sales in 2010 and by 2014 their share of the regional market is expected to be more than 92%. Growth in regional retail sales for 2010-2014 is forecast by BMI at 72.2%, an annual average 14%. India should experience the most rapid rate of growth, followed by China. For Hong Kong, its forecast market share of 1.4% in 2010 is expected to ease to 1.0% by 2014.

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Hong Kong Retail Report Q3 2010
Published on May 2010
Report Summary
The Q310 BMI Hong Kong Retail report forecasts that total retail sales for the Chinese special administrative region (SAR) will grow
from a forecast HKD279.13bn (US$35.88bn) in 2010 to HKD338.34bn (US$43.38bn) by 2014. Rising disposable incomes and a
strong tourism industry are key factors behind the forecast growth.
Hong Kong's nominal GDP is forecast to be US$221.31bn in 2010. We predict average annual GDP growth of 3.3% through to 2014.
With the population increasing by 0.7% over this period, GDP per capita is forecast to rise from US$31,131 in 2010 to US$37,060 by
2014. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$18,488 in 2010 to US$22,078 by 2014.
Tourist spending contributes significantly to Hong Kong retail sales, and the Hong Kong Tourist Board (HKTB) has provisionally
reported that tourism arrivals for 2009 stood at 29.59mn, an increase of 0.3% on 2008. Based on data from the World Travel &
Tourism Council (WTTC), we forecast tourism expenditure to reach US$22.84bn in 2010 ' up from an estimated US$20.93bn in 2009 '
and to hit US$30.48bn by 2014.
Retail sub-sectors that are forecast to achieve healthy sales growth throughout the forecast period include automotives, which are
predicted to increase by nearly 27%, from US$1.28bn in 2010 to US$1.62bn by 2014. Over the counter (OTC) pharmaceuticals sales
are forecast to rise by more than 20%, from US$0.25bn in 2010 to US$0.30bn by 2014. Consumer electronics sales are predicted to
grow from US$3.89bn in 2010 to US$4.58bn, a rise of nearly 18%, by the end of the forecast period.
Retail sales for the BMI universe of Asian countries in 2010 are a forecast US$2.66trn. China and India are predicted to account for
almost 91% of regional retail sales in 2010 and by 2014 their share of the regional market is expected to be more than 92%. Growth
in regional retail sales for 2010-2014 is forecast by BMI at 72.2%, an annual average 14%. India should experience the most rapid
rate of growth, followed by China. For Hong Kong, its forecast market share of 1.4% in 2010 is expected to ease to 1.0% by 2014.
Table of Content
Executive Summary ............................ 5
SWOT Analysis .................................... 6
Hong Kong Retail Business Environment SWOT ...................................... 6
Hong Kong Political SWOT ........ 7
Hong Kong Economic SWOT ...... 7
Business Environment Outlook .......... 8
Asia Pacific Retail Business Environment Ratings ......................................... 8
Table: Asia Pacific Retail Business Environment Ratings ........................ 8
Hong Kong's Retail Business Environment Rating ........................................ 9
Limits To Potential Returns ........ 9
Risks To Realisation Of Returns . 9
Market Overview ................................ 11
Key Players ................. 11
Current Trends ............ 11
Industry Forecast Scenario ............... 13
Retail Growth Outlook 13
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Table: Key Retail Indicators, 2007-2014 ................................................ 13
Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2010f .......................... 14
Macroeconomic Outlook ................ 15
Table: Hong Kong Economic Activity, 2007-2014 .................................. 16
Regional Retail Outlook .................... 17
Asia Pacific Retail Regional Outlook ........................................................... 17
Table: Asia Pacific Retail Sales, 2007-2014 (US$bn) ............................. 17
Table: Asia Pacific Food Consumption, 2007-2014 (US$$bn) ................ 18
Table: Asia Pacific Macroeconomic Outlook, 2007-2014 ...................... 20
Tourism .............................................. 21
Market Overview ........ 21
Table: Tourism Expenditure & Economic Impact Data, 2007-2014 ........ 23
Table: Tourist Arrivals By Country, 2007-2014 ('000) ........................... 23
Table: Tourism Arrivals Data, 2007-2014 .............................................. 24
Special Focus: Disneyland Hong Kong ....................................................... 25
Consumer Electronics ...................... 27
Hong Kong Consumer Electronics SWOT .............................................. 27
Hong Kong Electronics Industry SWOT ................................................. 28
Market Overview ........ 29
Computers .............. 29
Table: Computer Sales, 2007-2014 (US$mn) ......................................... 29
Audio/Video ........... 31
Table: AV Sales, 2007-2014 (US$mn) .................................................... 31
Mobile Handsets .... 32
Table: Mobile Handsets Sales, 2007-2014 .............................................. 33
Industry Forecast Scenario ............ 34
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2007-2014 (US$mn) ................ 35
Industry Developments 36
OTC Pharmaceuticals ....................... 39
Hong Kong Pharmaceuticals Industry SWOT ......................................... 39
Market Overview ........ 40
Retail Pharmacy Sector ............ 41
Regulatory Regime . 42
Counterfeit Drugs .. 43
Pricing And Reimbursement Developments ............................................ 44
Industry Forecast Scenario ............ 44
Country Snapshot: Hong Kong Demographic Data .. 46
Section 1: Population ................ 46
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 ........................................... 46
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown ............................................................. 46
Section 2: Education And Healthcare ..................................................... 46
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ........................................................... 46
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ... 47
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power ..................................... 47
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 ............................................. 47
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2005-2012 ............................................. 48
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ................................... 48
BMI Methodology .............................. 49
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ............................................. 49
Sources .................. 50
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