2. Lecture Plan
Human Resource Planning
Forecasting HR Needs
Forecasting Supply
Planning Anticipated Shortages
Labour Turnover and Stability
Increasing Employee Productivity
Retention Planning
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3. HRP may be defined as a strategy for the acquisition,
utilisation, improvement and retention for the human
resources required by the enterprise in pursuit of its
objectives.
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4. Traditional Manpower Planning
Forecast demand for specific skills, competences or
grades of employee.
Forecast supply of these
Plan to remove any discrepancy between demand and
supply.
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5. HRP and corporate planning
HR Planning is critical to organisation strategy,
because it is able to identify:
Shortfalls in organisational capability (skills,
knowledge, people)
Surpluses in organisational capability
Poor utilisation of people
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6. AIMS of HRP
To attract and retain the number of people required,
with the skills, expertise and competences required.
To anticipate potential surpluses or shortfalls which
will need to be adjusted.
To develop a well-trained and flexible workforce
To reduce dependence on external recruitment
To improve the utilisation of people
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7. Forecasting Supply
Internal Factors:
Skills and productivity level of current workforce
Structure of the workforce; age, hours, rates of pay, skills
Likelihood of changes to the productivity:
Wastage, promotions, transfers, absenteeism etc.
Employee trainability, morale and motivation.
Organisational, cultural, technological, and other changes
that may affect productivity
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9. DISCUSSION
Make a group of 3-4
Select an organisation you are familiar with.
Is its need for labour growing, shrinking or moving
into new skill areas?
What is the organisation doing about this?
What specific challenges are posed by the current
economic recession for HR planning?
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10. Forecasting HR Needs
First step in HR planning
Forecast revenue
Estimate the number of persons needed to achieve this volume
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Figure: Forecast Techniques in HR Planning
11. Forecasting HR Needs
Trend analysis
The study of a firm’s past employment needs over a
period of years to predict future needs.
Ratio analysis
A forecasting technique for determining future staff
needs by using ratios between a causal factor and the
number of employees needed.
Assumes that the relationship between the causal
factor and staffing needs is constant.
5–11
12. Forecasting HR Needs
Scatter plot
A graphical method used to help identify the
relationship between two variables.
Size of Hospital Number of
(Number of Beds) Registered Nurses
200 240
300 260
400 470
500 500
600 620
700 660
800 820
900 860
14. Forecasting HR Needs
Computerized forecasts
The use of software packages to determine of future
staff needs by projecting sales, volume of production,
and personnel required to maintain a volume of
output.
Generates figures on average staff levels required to meet
product demands, as well as forecasts for direct labor,
indirect staff, and exempt staff.
Typical metrics: direct labor hours required to produce one
unit of product (a measure of productivity), and three sales
projections—minimum, maximum, and probable.
5–14
15. Forecasting HR Needs
Managerial Judgment
To modify forecast based on factors e.g. entering
into a new market
Difficult to take a long-term perspective when
market conditions change dramatically
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16. Sample Questions from a Unit Forecasting
Questionnaire
List any jobs that have changed since the last forecasting period
and any that will change in the next forecasting period.
If vacancy can be filled with present employees, note whether
training will be required. Specify nature of training needs.
What percentage of employees are performing jobs up to
standard?
How many employees will be absent in the next forecasting
period because of disability, educational, or other leaves?
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17. Planning for Anticipated Shortages
Transfer employees to jobs in which shortages exist
Train employees to move up to jobs in which shortages
exist
Have employees work overtime
Increase employee productivity
Hire part-time employees
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18. Planning for Anticipated Shortages (cont’d.)
Hire temporary full-time employees
Hire permanent full-time employees
Subcontract work to other firms
Forgo increases in production
Install equipment to perform some of the tasks
that would be done by workers (capital
substitution)
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19. Ways to Increase Employee Productivity
Offer monetary incentives, e.g. bonuses, for higher
productivity or performance levels
Improve employees’ job skills to produce more in less
time or at lower cost
Re-design work processes and methods so greater
outputs are achieved
Use more efficient equipment so greater outputs are
achieved
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20. Planning for Anticipated Labour Surpluses
Close plants
Lay off some workers permanently
Give incentives for early retirement
Let the workforce shrink by attrition
Retrain and transfer workers
Shut down plants (or parts of them) temporarily
Lay off workers temporarily
Reduce the work week
Use work sharing
Cut or freeze pay and/or benefits
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21. Labour Turnover and Retention
LT is the number of employees leaving an organisation
and being replaced.
The rate is often expressed as the number of people
leaving, as a percentage of the average number of
people employed in a given period.
The term natural wastage is used to describe a normal
flow of people out of an organisation through
retirement, career or job change, relocation, illness
and so on.
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22. Labour turnover rate
Number of leavers in a period X100 = % turnover
Avg no. employed in that period
Normally quoted as an annual rate
May be used as turnover per organisation, department or
group of employees.
Disadvantages:
1. Does not tell who is leaving.
2. High turnover won’t reflect any instability if the core
experienced staff consistently remains.
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23. Labour stability and Activity
No. of employees with 1 or more year’s service X100%
No. of employees employed at the beginning of the year
= % Stability
Activity:
Suppose a company has 20 employees at the beginning of 2008, and 100 at
the end of the year. Disliking the culture created by the expansion, 18 of
the original experienced labour force resign.
Calculate:
The crude labour turnover rate
The stability rate
Comment on the significance of your result.
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25. Causes of labour turnover
Natural wastage occurs through:
a) Illness or accident
b) A move from the locality
c) Changes to the family situation
d) Retirement
e) Career change
Other factors:
a) Economic climate and the state of the job market
b) The age structure and length of service of the work
force.
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26. Is turnover a bad thing?
ADVANTAGES:
Opportunity to inject new blood
Balance in the age structure
Opportunities for offering promotion
Ability to cope with labour surpluses
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27. Disadvantages of labour turnover
Broken continuity of knowledge, relationships, culture
and succession
Lead time and lost performance to cover
Morale problems
The cost of turnover, including:
Replacement costs
Preventive costs
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28. Retention Planning
A systematic investigation into causes of high
turnover:
Exit interviews with leaving staff
Attitude surveys
Information on variable related to turnover (ageing
workforce, higher pay rates).
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29. The Human Resource Plan
Resourcing plan
Internal resource plan
Recruitment plan
Training plan
Re-development plan
Flexibility plan
Productivity plan
Downsizing plan
Retention plan
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