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MARKETBEAT
REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE

Q3 2012
                            OCTOBER 2012
INFORMATION RESOURCES                                                                 MARKETBEAT
                                                                                        Q3 2012




               WEB                  SOCIAL NETWORKS                 iCushman




CWRUSSIA.RU
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Latest Marketbeat report, reports
archive, interactive maps
                                                                            CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD    1
INTERACTIVE MAPS                                                                                    MARKETBEAT
 Click to open in browser                                                                              Q3 2012




OFFICES                               SHOPPING                                     WAREHOUSES
                                      CENTERS




 Для работы интерактивной карты необходим   You need Flash player installed and internet
                                                                                           CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD    2
 Flash Player и соединение с интернет       connection for interactive map to run
MARKETBEAT
                            Q3 2012




AGENDA
MACROECONOMY

RETAIL

OFFICE

WAREHOUSE

LAND

CAPITAL MARKETS




                  CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD   3
MARKETBEAT
                         Q3 2012




MACROECONOMY




               CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD   4
MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS                                                                                                  MARKETBEAT
                                                                                                                             Q3 2012
 Russia’s economy is competitive

  INTERNATIONAL                               LOCAL INDICATORS
   COMPARISONS
    UK                                                                                   2011       Q3 2012 2012F            2012F
                                               REAL ECONOMY
 France
                                               GDP                                        4.3%       4.0%        3.4%         3%
Germany                                        INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION                      4.7%       3.1%        3.1%         5%

  Brazil
                                               CONSUMER SECTOR
     US                                        RETAIL TRADE TURNOVER                      7.0%        6.6%       6.3%         4%
                                               REAL WAGES                                 4.2%        10%        6.3%         8.8%
  Russia                                       REAL DISPOSABLE INCOME                     0.8%       3.6%         5.0%
                                               CPI                                        6.1%       5.2%         5 - 6%       6%
   India
                                               RUR/USD ANNUAL AVERAGE                    29.39       30.99        27.9        30.7
  China

           -2%   0%   2%   4%   6%   8% 10%

                                               – Ministry for Economic development has left its forecast for 2012 unchanged despite of
– IMF has decreased the GDP forecast to
                                                recent deceleration
 3.4%, but Russia still looks competitive

                                                                                                               CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD       5
OIL PRICE AND BUDGET PERFORMANCE                                                                                                      MARKETBEAT
                                                                                                                                        Q3 2012




         500                                                                                     120
                                                                                                                   • The budget is performing with
                                                                                                                   small 1.4% GDP surplus
         400                                                                                     100
                                                                                                                   • One year ago the surplus was
                                                                                                                   2.3% GDP
         300                                                                                     80
                                                                                                                   • Average URALS price in Q1-




                                                                                                       US$ / bbl
bn US$




         200                                                                                     60
                                                                                                                   Q3 2012 was $111 / bbl


         100                                                                                     40


           0                                                                                     20
                2007          2008                2009   2010            2011         2012 YTD
         -100                                                                                    0

                       Budget revenue (left)                    Budget expenditure (left)

                       Deficit / Surplus (left)                 Urals actual average (right)



                                                                                                                            CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD    6
CAPITAL OUTFLOW                                                                                  MARKETBEAT
                                                                                                            Q3 2012




         100
                                                                                   • The capital outflow is
                                                                                   comparable to 2011, but the
                                                                                   pattern has changed.
          50
                                                                                   • The outflow is mainly
                                                                                   generated by non-banking sector
           0                                                                       increasing and is comparable to
                                                                                   the one in 2008, whereas the
USD bn




                                                                                   banking sector provided small
          -50                                                                      inflow.


         -100



         -150
                2006    2007           2008    2009   2010     2011     2012 YTD
                       Total outflow          Banks     Other sectors


                                                                                                CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD    7
CONSUMERS                                                                                                                                                                                  MARKETBEAT
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Q3 2012




         CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND                                                                                                                   CONSUMER LOANS AND DEPOSITS GROWTH
            INDUSTRIAL OPTIMISM
                                                                                                                                                20%
  30%

  20%                                                                                                                                           10%
  10%
                                                                                                                                                 0%
   0%

  -10%                                                                                                                                          -10%
  -20%
                                                                                                                                                -20%
  -30%

  -40%                                                                                                                                          -30%
         Q1
              Q2
                   Q3
                        Q4
                             Q1
                                  Q2
                                       Q3
                                            Q4
                                                 Q1
                                                      Q2
                                                           Q3
                                                                Q4
                                                                     Q1
                                                                          Q2
                                                                               Q3
                                                                                    Q4
                                                                                         Q1
                                                                                              Q2
                                                                                                   Q3
                                                                                                        Q4
                                                                                                             Q1
                                                                                                                  Q2
                                                                                                                       Q3
                                                                                                                            Q4
                                                                                                                                 Q1
                                                                                                                                      Q2
                                                                                                                                           Q3




                                                                                                                                                       Q1
                                                                                                                                                       Q2
                                                                                                                                                       Q3
                                                                                                                                                       Q4
                                                                                                                                                       Q1
                                                                                                                                                       Q2
                                                                                                                                                       Q3
                                                                                                                                                       Q4
                                                                                                                                                       Q1
                                                                                                                                                       Q2
                                                                                                                                                       Q3
                                                                                                                                                       Q4
                                                                                                                                                       Q1
                                                                                                                                                       Q2
                                                                                                                                                       Q3
                                                                                                                                                       Q4
                                                                                                                                                       Q1
                                                                                                                                                       Q2
                                                                                                                                                       Q3
                                                                                                                                                       Q4
                                                                                                                                                       Q1
                                                                                                                                                       Q2
                                                                                                                                                       Q3
              2006                2007                2008                2009                2010                2011            2012
                                                                                                                                                       2007   2008         2009    2010        2011        2012
                             Consumer confidence index, %                                Industrial optimism index, %
                                                                                                                                                              Deposits growth, %    Loans growth, %

• Consumer confidence is decreasing on the negative short-term expectations
• According to CBR statistics, consumers withdraw money from banks, loans growth is decelerating. The role of saving pattern is
increasing, with less trust to banks as to saving instruments.
                                                                                                                                                                                     CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD      8
RETAIL MARKET VOLUME                                                                                                                                                                               MARKETBEAT
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Q3 2012
Russia is No.4 Retail Market in Europe

     RETAIL TURNOVER IN EUROPE*                                                                                   RUSSIA RETAIL TURNOVER **
                                                                                  20%
                    Others** 56.1
                  Slovakia 15.3
                  Croatia 15.7
               Hungary 30.1                                                       15%
             Romania 31.9
             Ireland 36.6
                                    France 530.3
    Czech Republic 39.7                                       Germany 528.3
        Finland 50.3                                                              10%
      Portugal 55.2
     Norway 55.6
                                                                                   5%
    Denmark 57.6
                                                                      United
     Greece 59.6
                                                                  Kingdom 455.7    0%
     Austria 64.9

     Sweden 88.5
                                                                                   -5%
     Switzerland 90.9

        Belgium 93.6                                              Russia 433.7    -10%




                                                                                         Q1
                                                                                              Q2
                                                                                                   Q3
                                                                                                        Q4
                                                                                                             Q1
                                                                                                                  Q2
                                                                                                                       Q3
                                                                                                                            Q4
                                                                                                                                 Q1
                                                                                                                                      Q2
                                                                                                                                           Q3
                                                                                                                                                Q4
                                                                                                                                                     Q1
                                                                                                                                                          Q2
                                                                                                                                                               Q3
                                                                                                                                                                    Q4
                                                                                                                                                                         Q1
                                                                                                                                                                              Q2
                                                                                                                                                                                   Q3
                                                                                                                                                                                        Q4
                                                                                                                                                                                             Q1
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Q2
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Q3
                                                                                                                                                                                                            Q4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Q1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Q2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Q3
     Poland 108.7
       Netherlands                      Spain 264.3 Italy 329.7                               2006                2007                2008                2009                2010                2011            2012
          123.1
               Turkey 181.6



RUSSIA RETAIL TURNOVER GROWTH IS DECELERATING BUT STILL ONE OF THE LARGEST
IN EUROPE AND IS ONE OF THE DRIVERS OF GDP GROWTH IN 2012
*Data of 2010, bn USD , GFK GeoMarketing
**Source: ROSSTAT                                                                                                                                                                  CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD                      9
RETAIL SALES                                                                                                                                  MARKETBEAT
                                                                                                                                                Q3 2012
Russian consumers are important players

                  RETAIL SALES PER CAPITA FOR EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
         Luxembourg                                                                                                        11,840

         Switzerland                                                                                            10,161

            Norway                                                                                          9,628

           Denmark                                                                                     9,435

             Austria                                                                               8,947

            Moscow                                                                         7,874

              France                                                                       7,829

             Belgium                                                                      7,715

        Great Britain                                                            6,297

                Italy                                                       5,850

            Germany                                                      5,501

            Portugal                                             4,852

              Russia                                          4,457

               Spain                              3,215

            Hungary                           2,699

                        0             2,000           4,000              6,000           8,000             10,000        12,000


Source: ROSSTAT, RegioData Research                                                                                                 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD    10
RETAIL SPENDING                                                                                                                             MARKETBEAT
                                                                                                                                                  Q3 2012
    Russians are the most active consumers in Europe

         RETAIL SPENDING IN EUROPE*                                                   RUSSIA CONSUMER PATTERN
                                                                        110%
                                                                        100%
                                                                        90%
                                    Share of retail spending in total   80%
                   Country
                                            private spending            70%
                                                                        60%
          Russia                                 77%                    50%
                                                                        40%
          Czech Republic                          40%
                                                                        30%
          Poland                                  38%                   20%
          France                                  35%                   10%
                                                                         0%
          Germany                                 28%                   -10%
          United Kingdom                          31%                          2006         2007           2008        2009        2010        2011   2012 YTD

                                                                                      Goods and services          Obligatory payments     Savings
                                                                                      Currency purchase           Money on hand growth



         AVERAGE RUSSIAN CITIZEN SPENDS 78% OF HIS/HER INCOME FOR RETAIL
         AVERAGE SALARY IN RUSSIA – 25 704 RUR
Source: ROSSTAT, GFK GeoMarketing
                                                                                                                                     CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD     11
CONSUMERS                                                                                                                        MARKETBEAT
                                                                                                                                       Q3 2012
    Russian consumer market has strong upside

                      CONSUMER CREDIT/GDP RATIO
    120.0%
                                                                                                     –Russian consumer credit market was not
                                                                                                      growing fast enough in comparison with other
    100.0%                                                                                            countries
                                                                                                     –Average Russian citizen owes $1091 in loans
     80.0%                                                                                Czech
                                                                                          Bulgaria
                                                                                          Germany
     60.0%                                                                                Spain
                                                                                          France
                                                                                          Italy
     40.0%
                                                                                          Russia
                                                                                          UK

     20.0%



      0.0%
             2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010


Source: EUROSTAT                                                                                                           CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD    12
MARKETBEAT
                          Q3 2012




RETAIL MARKET




                CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD   13
RETAILERS                    MARKETBEAT
                                  Q3 2012




NEW RETAILERS 2012   COMING SOON




                      CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD    14
NEW RETAILERS                                                                         MARKETBEAT
                                                                                            Q3 2012
    New reasons to visit shopping center

                                           –The most notable opening in 2012 is
                            COMING SOON     Debenhams store.
                                           – In 2012 all new international brands are coming
                                            to Russia with Russian partners
                                           –New brands are coming to Moscow initially
                                            with expansion plants for Russian regions
                                            (mostly “millionniki” cities)
                                           –New Russian brands:
                                             » Cosmopolitan Fine Jewellery, CookHouse, Kari,
                                              Sabotage

                                           – Closed
          NEW RETAILERS 2012
                                             » Peacocks, Saturn (Metro Group)
`




                                                                                CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD    15
HYPERMARKETS                                                                                               MARKETBEAT
                                                                                                             Q3 2012
Historic expansion of hypermarkets and impressive development plans

                       160

                       140

                       120
 Total units trading




                       100

                       80

                       60

                       40

                       20

                         0
                             1992 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

                                                 Auchan   O’KEY    Lenta   REAL
                                                                                                 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD    16
NON-FOOD RETAILERS                                                                                          MARKETBEAT
                                                                                                              Q3 2012
Historic expansion of non-food big boxes and impressive development plans
                       80

                       70

                       60
 Total units trading




                       50

                       40

                       30

                       20

                       10

                        0
                            1992 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

                                          Leroy Merlin   OBI   Castorama    Media Markt

                                                                                                  CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD    17
SHOPPING CENTERS                                                                              MARKETBEAT
                                                                                                              Q3 2012
              Europe 2011, sq.m of quality retail per ‘000 inhabitant
        Norway
         Sweden
   Luxembourg
         Estonia
                                                                              RETAIL FORMATS:
          Ireland
        Slovenia
    Netherlands                                                               1. SHOPPING CENTER
          Finland
         Austria
        Moscow
       Denmark
                                                                              2. STREET RETAIL
                                                                              3. DEPARTMENT STORE
       Lithuania
            Latvia
        Portugal
United Kingdom
          France
 EU-27 Average                                                                4. RETAIL OUTLET – to come soon
     Switzerland
         Croatia
            Spain
             Italy
                                                                              5. RETAIL PARK – not in Russia yet
          Poland
        Slovakia
     Czech Rep.
                                                                              6. RETAIL WAREHOUSE – not in
            Malta
       Germany
                                                                                    Russia yet
       Hungary
       Romania
        Belgium
           Russia
         Turkey
        Bulgaria
 Moscow region
        Ukraine
         Greece
           Serbia
   Bosnia Herz.

                     0        100         200         300   400   500   600   700
                 Source: Cushman&Wakefield Research                                               CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD    18
SHOPPING CENTERS                                                                                                                                               MARKETBEAT
                                                                                                                                                                  Q3 2012
 Quarterly monitoring

                      FOOTFALL, Q1 2010=100%                                                                            VACANCY RATE, %
 120%

 110%

 100%

  90%

  80%

  70%
                                                                                        1.65%   3.05%   1.58%   0.80%   0.95%   1.00%   1.05%   0.97%   0.41%    0.65%   0.80%   0.41%
  60%
         Q4     Q1   Q2    Q3    Q4    Q1    Q2    Q3    Q4    Q1   Q2     Q3           Q4      Q1      Q2      Q3      Q4      Q1      Q2      Q3      Q4       Q1      Q2       Q3

         2009           2010                   2011                 2012               2009                2010                            2011                          2012


 – Share of "successful shoppers" in visitors is 43.9% (Q3 2012) and at the highest level since Q4 2009
 – Footfall in shopping centers is in line with seasonable trend
 – Vacancy rate in established shopping malls with stabilized catchment area is extremely low

* Cushman&Wakefield Research quarterly monitoring of 9 quality shopping centers (total GLA - 0.5 mn sq m).
                                                                                                                                                CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD              19
 These shopping centers have been opened more than one year ago and have the clear catchment area.
SHOPPING CENTERS – RUSSIA*                                                                                                      MARKETBEAT
                                                                                                                                          Q3 2012



QUALITY RETAIL SPACE UNDER CONSTRUCTION                                            PIPELINE OF QUALITY SHOPPING CENTERS,
     (IN SHOPPING CENTERS), ‘000 SQ M                                                          GLA 50,000+, 2012

                                                                     1912          City                      Property Name        Retail GLA, sq.m   Delivery
            1558
                                                                                   Volgograd                 KomsoMall (Slava)       68,000           Q1
                                                                                   Krasnodar                 Krasnaya Plozhad        50,000           Q1
                            1143       1149          1189
                                                                                   St. Petersburg            RIO                     52,500           Q2
                                                                                   Krasnodar                 Oz Mall                169,000           Q2
                                                                                   Ryazan                    Premier                 50,000           Q2
                                                                      866          Nizhnyi Novgorod          Sedmoe Nebo             60,800           Q3
                                                                                   Ekaterinburg              Prizma                  70,400           Q4
                                                                                   Nizhnyi Novgorod          (E
                                                                                                             RIO     k )             68,000           Q4
            2008           2009        2010          2011            2012
                                                                  (forecast)       Surgut                    Surgut City Mall        69,600           Q4
          Announced developers plans   CW Forecast          New construction       Sochi                     Moremall                80,000           Q4
                                                                                   Ekaterinburg              Raduga Park             56,000           Q4
                                                                                   Belgorod                  Megagreen               53,000           Q4
 – There are 355 quality shopping malls in Russia (excluding Moscow and Moscow
                                                                                   Surgut                    Aura                    65,000           Q4
    agglomeration) total GLA 9 ,962, 317 sq m                                      Total GLA of shopping centers > 50,000 sq        912,300
                                                                                   Total GLA                                       1,918,464
 – 17 new quality shopping malls were delivered in Q1-Q3 2012

  * Without Moscow and Moscow region          Source: Cushman&Wakefield Research                                             CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD        20
SHOPPING CENTERS – MOSCOW AND MOSCOW REGION                                                                                                     MARKETBEAT
                                                                                                                                                        Q3 2012
      Construction of shopping centers in Moscow is down
     QUALITY RETIAL SPACE UNDER CONSTRUCTION                                           PIPELINE OF QUALITY SHOPPING CENTERS *, 2012
           (IN SHOPPING CENTERS), ‘000 SQ M                                                                   Property Name            Retail GLA, sq.m    Delivery
                                                                                              Moscow
                                    599                                                                       Hotel Moskva                 21,000            Q1
                     515                                                                                      Sombrero                      6,000            Q2
                                               443                                                            Outlet Village Belaya
                                                                             412                                                           24,000            Q3
                                                                                                              Dacha
                                                                                                              Sviblovo (former Friz)       15,000            Q3
                                                             266
                                                                                                              Otrada (2 phase)             28,000            Q4
                                                                                                              Kaleidoskop                  41,000            Q4
                                                                                                              Favorit                      21,900            Q4
                                                                                                              Moskvorechye                 19,800            Q4
                                                                              114                             Parus                        17,280            Q4
                                                                                                              Perovo                        5,000            Q4
                    2008           2009        2010          2011            2012                             Total GLA                   198,980
                                                                          (forecast)
                                                                                              Moscow Region
                                                                                              Domodedovo      Torgovy Kvartal              22,500            Q1
                  Announced developers plans   CW Forecast          New construction
                                                                                              Krasnogorsk     Solnechniy Ray                8,000            Q3
                                                                                              Krasnogorsk     June                         17,500            Q3
                                                                                              Mytischi        June                         75,000            Q4
– There are 115 quality shopping malls in Moscow, total GLA 3,449 ,610 SQM                    Mytischi        Krasny Kit (2 phase)         35,000            Q4
                                                                                              Korolev         SC on Kosmonavtov            22,500            Q4
– 6 new quality shopping malls and the first Russia outlet were delivered in Q1-Q3 2012       Zelenograd      Panfilovskiy                 13,300            Q4
                                                                                              Lytkarino       Vesna                        12,500            Q4
                                                                                              Odintsovo       Westore                      7,600             Q4
– Less new projects are announced and pipeline is drying out                                                  Total GLA                   213,900

                                                                                           * Outlets are included, retail part of mix-use complexes are not included

     Source: Cushman&Wakefield Research                                                                                                CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD            21
SHOPPING CENTERS : RENTAL RATES                                                                                            MARKETBEAT
                                                                                                                                 Q3 2012
    Moscow rental rates are stable
QUALITY SHOPPING CENTERS RETAIL GALLERY
                                                                                                   Q3 2012 prime retail indicator** is
                                                    Gross leasable area,sq m
     Business type
                                         Retail Gallery                      Mini Anchors                 3,800 USD
                                <100                 100 - 300        300 - 800      800 - 1,500     per sq.m per annum, base rate
Kiosks                               $2,000
Cellphones                           $3,500
Drugstore                    $1,200-$1,500
Banks                        $1,200-$1,500
Restaurant                           $1,200          $600-$1000
Textiles                             $1,200                  $800
Books                                $1,000           $500-$600             $400            $300
Clothing and Footwear                $1,200                  $800           $600            $400
White and Brown                                                                             $500
Supermarket                                                                                 $750

    Source: Cushman&Wakefield Research                                                                               CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD    22
RETAIL STREETS : RENTAL RATES                                                  MARKETBEAT
                                                                                         Q3 2012
        Moscow rental rates are stable

               STREET                  USD/sq. m/annum     2012 trend


1st Tverskaya Yamskaya                  $1,500 - $2 ,500                up
Arbat                                    $1,500 - $2,500                up
Garden Ring                              $1,000 - $2,500            stable
Kutuzovsky Prospekt                      $1,000 - $2,500            stable
Kuznetsky Most                           $2,000 - $2,500            stable
Leningradsky Prospekt                    $1,000 - $2,000            stable
Leninsky prospect                        $1,000 - $2,000            stable
Prospect Mira                            $1,200 - $2,000            stable
Novy Arbat                               $1,500 - $2,500                up
Petrovka                                 $3,000 - $4,000                up
Pyatnitskaya                             $1,500 - $2,000            stable
Tverskaya                                $3,500 - $4,500                up
Stoleshnikov per.                        $3,500 - $4,500                up




        Source: Cushman&Wakefield Research                                   CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD    23
LEASE TERMS                                                                                              MARKETBEAT
                                                                                                           Q3 2012
Behind the rent

 ITEM              COMMENT
 Lease Terms       Standard lease terms are between 3-5 years with some up to 10 -15 for anchors. Break
                   options are not common in the market.
 Rental Payment    Rents are typically payable monthly in advance.Turnover / percentage rents are increasingly
                   seen in shopping centres. Rental rates are generally calculated in USD, Euro or commercial
                   units are used. In less quality shopping centres rental rates are calculated in RUR.
 Rent Deposit      The rent deposit required in quality shopping centres is typically between 1 – 3 months rent
                   equitant.
 Indexation        Annual indexation is typical between 3-10% or at a level of USD / EU CPI. The practice of
                   premium / key money payments is seldom seen in Russia. Rent reviews are rare on the
                   market.
 Service Charges   Service charge is payable by tenants at either an “open book” basis or more common as a
                   fixed cost. Utilities payments are charged on consumption. Building insurance is normally
                   charged back to tenant via service charge.
 Other costs       VAT 18% Local property taxes are not paid separately, they are generally included in the
                   service charges.


                                                                                               CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD    24
MARKETBEAT
                          Q3 2012




OFFICE MARKET




                CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD   25
MOSCOW OFFICE INDICATORS                                                                                                       MARKETBEAT
                                                                                                                                     Q3 2012
    New construction, Take up and Vacancy rate

                                                                                             High demand
'000 sq m                                                                                      –450,000 sq m (take up)
2,200                                                                                  14%
2,000
                                                                                       12%
                                                                                             Fair net absorption
1,800
1,600                                                                                  10%     –31.8 % from take-up
1,400
1,200                                                                                  8%    Low new construction
1,000                                                                                  6%
  800
                                                                                               –176,500 sq m
  600                                                                                  4%
  400
                                                                                             Decreasing Vacancy
                                                                                       2%
  200
                                                                                               –11.3%
    0                                                                                  0%
            2006   2007   2008    2009   2010   2011   F2012 F2013 F2014 F2015
                                                                                             Stable Rental Rates
        New construction (2012: Q1-Q3)          New construction Forecast (2012: Q4)
        Take-up (2012: Q1-Q3)                   Take-up Forecast (2012: Q4)                    –Prime   $1,200
        Vacancy rate
                                                                                               –Class A $790
                                                                                               –Class B $450
                                                                                                                         CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD    26
SUPPLY                                                                                                                                          MARKETBEAT
                                                                                                                                                        Q3 2012
      Shortage in Downtown, excessive in outskirts

        OFFICE STOCK AND VACANCY                                             OFFICE STOCK AND VACANCY
                                                            mn sq m

           Class B                Class A                      15                                                                                     25%
           vacant                occupied
            1.06                   2.06                        12                                                                                     20%
                                         Class A
                                         vacant
                                                                9                                                                                     15%
                                          0.41

                                                                6                                                                                     10%


                                                                3                                                                                     5%


                                                                0                                                                                     0%
                                                                      2006   2007   2008     2009      2010    2011   2012    F2013 F2014 F2015
         Class B
                                                                               Stock, Class B, (2012: Q1-Q3)          Stock, Class A, (2012: Q1-Q3)
        occupied
          9.46                                                                 Vacancy rate, Class A                  Vacancy rate, Class B




• The volume of space under construction is growing. There is 3.24 mn sq m of quality office space under
  construction, which is 0.64 mn sq m more than at the beginning of the year.
• Most new constructions of class A are concentrated in the Central business district, with most class B in the
 CBD and Other Trading Areas (OTA).
                                                                                                                                         CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD       27
AVAILABILITY                                                                                                   MARKETBEAT
                                                                                                                 Q3 2012
High vacancy but limited number of options

VACANCY RATE AND AVAILABLE SPACE BY BUSINESS AREAS, Q3 2012


                                                 133              140
                              12.6%                    Downtown               6.0%




                22.4%                      239                          343
                                                       Central                        9.4%

                                       `
                               `




                                   10.6%         39                                  576
                                                        OTA                                  12.8%



                                           Class A                      Class B

  • The average vacancy rate is stable (and has contracted from 11.6% in Q2 down to 11.3% in Q3).
  • Some submarkets are experiencing extremely low availability, for example in the Belorussky and
   Frunzensky submarkets the vacancy rate is less than 5%, which indicates a strong deficit of quality space in
   these areas.
                                                                                                     CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD    28
DEMAND                                                                                                                        MARKETBEAT
                                                                                                                                   Q3 2012
   High turnover, low net absorption

                              TAKE-UP (’000 SQ M)

'000 sq m
                                              86%   79%      84%
2,600               83%              86%                                             90%
                                                                                           • Office take up levels were positive over the
             80%            75%
2,400
                                                                                     80%
2,200
2,000                                                                                70%     quarter with over 450,000 sq.m transacted.
1,800
1,600
                                                                                     60%   • Occupier demand is steady as tenants look to
1,400                                                                                50%     consolidate or renegotiate leases.
1,200                                                                                40%
1,000
                                                                                     30%
                                                                                           • This year the Moscow office market may
  800
  600                                                                                20%
                                                                                             overcome the historic high of 2 mn sq m in
  400
                                                                                     10%
                                                                                             office transactions.
  200
    0                                                                                0%    • At the same time, Net Absorption is lower
            2006   2007   2008     2009      2010   2011   F2012 F2013 F2014 F2015
                                                                                             than in previous years and is about 31,1% of
                          Forecast Class B (B+ and B-)         Class B (B+ and B-)
                          Forecast Class A                     Class A
                                                                                             Gross Absorption (or take-up).
                          Share of lease deals




                                                                                                                       CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD    29
NET ABSORPTION AND TAKE UP                                                                                                                                                                   MARKETBEAT
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Q3 2012
    In balance

                       ABSORPTION VS. TAKE-UP                                                              ABSORPTION VS. NEW CONSTRUCTION


                                                                             1.97
                       1.75     1.81                                                                                        2.17
       1.51                                                                                  1.48
                1.35                                                                                                                 1.81
                                                        1.27
                                                                                                            1.49
                                                                                                                                               1.39
                                                                                                                     1.35

                                       0.74                      0.74                 0.76
                                                 0.63                                                                                                           0.88
                                                                                                                                                                         0.74               0.76
                                                                                                    0.46                                                 0.63                      0.65
                                                                                                                                                                                                           0.46
                                                                                                                                                                                                    0.45

              2007            2008            2009             2010                 2011     Q 1-3 2012
                                                                                                                   2007            2008               2009             2010               2011       Q 1-3 2012
                                          Take-up               Absorption
                                                                                                                                            New construction            Absorption


• Originally Take up was close to net absorption, because companies were                                                    Net absorption—represents the change in the occupied stock within a
    moving to newly constructed buildings from old stock                                                                    market during the period.
                                                                                                                            Calculation: Net Absorption =X-Y
•   In 2008 Net absorption was higher than Take up because of high number of                                                Where:
    pre-lease contracts in 2007. As the result of massive preleases, fully let                                                       X = Current stock – current vacancy
    buildings were delivered to the market                                                                                           Y = Previous stock (same quarter, previous year) – previous
•   Low net absorption and high take up indicates maturity of Moscow market                                                          vacancy (same quarter, previous year)


                                                                                                                                                                                CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD               30
MOSCOW OFFICE MARKET NET ABSORPTION                       MARKETBEAT
                                                            Q3 2012
Interactive chart




                                      Flash player is required for
                                      interactive content


                                                CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD    31
RENTAL RATES                                                                                                                                     MARKETBEAT
                                                                                                                                                   Q3 2012
Stability is the key

              RENTAL RATES BY CLASSES
                                                                                               • High activity by tenants has had little impact on rents,
                     $1,090.0
                                                                                                   which remain flat for all classes and all submarkets. In
                                                                                                   the vast majority of office buildings in Moscow, asking
           $938.4                                                                                  rents are stable.
                                                           $790.0                              •   Nevertheless, there are positive dynamics in Class A
                                  $710.0
 $717.4
                                         $640.0 $760.0               $800.0
                                                                                    $850.0         average rental rates. In Q3 class A average rents have
                     $810.0                            $743.0 $750.0                               grown from USD 750 to USD 790 due to the
            $627.9                                          $450.0                  $600.0
                                                                                                   respectively high proportion of transactions in the
   $521.4                       $510.0            $490.0
                                                                           $550.0                  Central area (46% in Q3 compared with a traditional
                                         $420.0            $437.0 $450.0                           30%). The higher share of more expensive deals
                                                                                                   pushed average rents up.
    2006     2007     2008      2009       2010   2011     F2012 F2013 F2014 F2015             •    Tenants’ incentives are as low as possible, discounts
                     Class A                      Class B (B+ and B-)                              from asking rental rates are not often granted or are
                     Class A Q3                   Class A Q3                                       low (about 5% on average).
                                                                                               •    We expect stable rents until the end of this year and
 • Prime $1,200                                                                                    possibly well into 2013.
 • Class A $ 790
 • Class B $ 450

 * Rental rates – base asking rates for deals closed within the period per sq m per annum, triple net                                  CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD    32
MARKETBEAT
                                      Q3 2012




       Rental rates by
         submarket




Flash player required for interactive content

                            CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD   33
MARKETBEAT
                                   Q3 2012




WAREHOUSE & INDUSTRIAL




                         CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD   34
MOSCOW SUPPLY                                                                                         MARKETBEAT
                                                                                                                      Q3 2012
              New construction of quality warehouses (A and B classes)


            1,400
                                                                                      2012
            1,200                                                                      – New construction (Q1-Q3 2012)

            1,000
                                                                                                             531,000 sq. m
                                                                                       – Total pipeline     840,000 sq. m
'000 sq m




             800


             600

                                                                                      2013
             400
                                                                                       – Total pipeline   1.700,000 sq m
             200


               0
                    2006   2007   2008        2009    2010     2011   2012F   2013F

                                  New construction   Planned

                                                                                                          CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD    35
RENTAL RATES                                                                                                       MARKETBEAT
                                                                                                                             Q3 2012
        Rental rates and lease terms
                                                                                                                                      COLD
                                                                                                     CLASS A   CLASS B CLASS C
                                                                                                                                   STORAGES
$150                                                                        Net Rent Rates,
                                $140                                        $/sq m/year
                                                                                                     130 -140 120-130**    170**         251

$140                                                                $135
                $132                                                        Operating Expenses,
                                                                            $/sq m/year
                                                                                                       30-40     20-30        -              -

$130                                                                        Utility Charges,
                                                             $135           $/sq m/year
                                                                                                       10-15        10        -              -

        $127            $130
$120                                                                        Yearly rent indexation    CPI-3%     8-10%       n/d         n/d

                                                                            Minimum Lease Term,
$110                                                                        years
                                                                                                        5-10       1-5        -              -
                                                      $109
                                                                            Contract security,
$100                                    $105                                months
                                                                                                         3-6       1-3        -              -

                                                                            Advance Payment,
                                                                                                         1-3       1-3        1              -
 $90                                                                        months

                                                                            Contract currency        USD/EUR       RUB      RUB         RUB
 $80
                                                                            Minimal lease area,
       2005    2006    2007    2008    2009    2010     2011        2012F   sq m
                                                                                                           3       500        -              -




                                                                                                                 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD    36
VACANCY RATE                                                                                                MARKETBEAT
                                                                                                              Q3 2012
Vacancy rate in Class A, Moscow region



                                                                          –The vacancy rate remained stable since Q3
                                                                           2011;
                                                                          –In the short-term vacancy rate will not
                                                                           change.




11.2%   9.1%    8.1%     3.9%   2.8%   1.5%        1%   1%   1%   1%     1.0%

 Q1     Q2          Q3   Q4     Q1     Q2          Q3   Q4   Q1   Q2     Q3

             2010                           2011                  2012




                                                                                                  CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD    37
SUPPLY MAP                                                                                                                                       MARKETBEAT
                                                                                                                                                   Q3 2012
Distribution of W&I space in Moscow region
                         EXISTING                                                                       2012-2013 PIPELINE
                                 Dmitrovskoe
                                shosse (A104)                                                                           Dmitrovskoe
                                1,000                                                                                  shosse (A104)
              Leningradskoe                           Yaroslavskoe                                                       600
                                 900                                                                 Leningradskoe                           Yaroslavskoe
               shosse (M10)                           shosse (M8)
                                 800                                                                  shosse (M10)      500                  shosse (M8)
                                 700
                                 600                                                                                    400
  Novorizhskoe                                                        Shelkovskoe
   shosse (M9)                   500                                 shosse (A103)       Novorizhskoe                                                   Shelkovskoe
                                                                                          shosse (M9)                   300                            shosse (A103)
                                 400
                                 300                                                                                    200
                                 200
                                 100                                                                                    100
  Minskoe                                                                Gorkovskoe      Minskoe                                                            Gorkovskoe
                                   0                                                                                      0
shosse (M1)                                                              shosse (M7)   shosse (M1)                                                          shosse (M7)




     Kievskoe                                                        Novoryazanskoe        Kievskoe                                                    Novoryazanskoe
    shosse (MЗ)                                                        shosse (M5)        shosse (MЗ)                                                    shosse (M5)



               Kaluzhskoe                             Kashirskoe                                      Kaluzhskoe                             Kashirskoe
              shosse (A101)                           shosse (M4)                                    shosse (A101)                           shosse (M4)

                               Simferopolskoe                                                                         Simferopolskoe
                                 shosse (M2)                                                                            shosse (M2)


                    30+ km    10-30 km      0-10 km     Moscow
                                                                                                          30+ km     10-30 km     0-10 km       Moscow
                                                                                                                                       CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD        38
DEMAND STRUCTURE                                                                                                   MARKETBEAT
                                                                                                                     Q3 2012
Market share and deal size

            STRUCTURE OF DEMAND                                                      AVERAGE DEAL SIZE
                                                                  20
       Producer                          Retailer
         24%                              40%                     16


                                                                  12




                                                      '000 sq m
       Other                                                       8
        2%
                                                                   4
         Logistic
          17%
                                                                          14.83       10.29      8.35     10.66        18.63
                                                                   0
                               Distributor
                                  17%                                  Distributor   Logistic   Other   Producer      Retailer


   •        During Q1-Q3 2012 the demand was generated by retail and industrial companies.
   •        The requests for the biggest rentable areas came from retail (18,000 sq m in average) and
            industrial(11,000 sq m)companies.

                                                                                                        CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD      39
DEMAND                                                                                                                      MARKETBEAT
                                                                                                                                                Q3 2012
                  Take-up

            600
                                                                                                                           • Q3 2012 was the record-
            500                                                                                                            breaker in Moscow region
                                                                                                                           since Q1 2008.
            400
'000 SQ M




            300

                                                                                                                           • In the total volume of
            200
                                                                                                                           transactions completed in Q3
            100
                                                                                                                           2012 the share of warehouse
                                                                                                                           sales comprises 30%.
              0
                   Q1     Q2     Q3     Q4     Q1     Q2     Q3     Q4     Q1     Q2     Q3     Q4     Q1     Q2     Q3
                  2009   2009   2009   2009   2010   2010   2010   2010   2011   2011   2011   2011   2012   2012   2012
                                                       Moscow       Regions




                                                                                                                                    CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD    40
REGIONS                                                                                         MARKETBEAT
                                                                                                     Q3 2012
  Regional rental rates, USD per sq.m.

$140
                                                                                 Avg base rental
                                                                                                   Avg leased area,
                                                              CITY                        rates,
                                                                                                              sq m
$120                                                                              USD / annum
                                                              Moscow                  135-140         10,000-15,000

$100                                                          St. Petersburg          120-130          2,000-10,000
                                                              Ekaterinburg            110-115          5,000-10,000
$80                                                           Nizhnyi Novgorod        110-120           3,000-5,000

                                                              Samara                  110-115           3,000-5,000
$60                                                           Kazan                    90-100           3,000-5,000

                                                              Rostov-On-Don           115-120           3,000-5,000
$40                                                           Krasnodar               110-120           3,000-5,000

                                                              Novosibirsk             110-115           2,000-5,000
$20                                                           Ufa                      90-100           3,000-5,000


 $0
       2008          2009       2010       2011       2012F

         St. Petersburg     Ekaterinburg   Rostov-On-Don

                                                                                        CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD       41
MARKETBEAT
                          Q3 2012




LAND MARKET




              CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD    42
MOSCOW REGION                                                                        MARKETBEAT
                                                                                        Q3 2012
 Stable, growing market



 MOSCOW REGION AVERAGE INDUSTRIAL                        PRICE FOR INDUSTRIAL LAND IN
       LAND PRICE, mn USD/ha                              MOSCOW REGION by direction
                                                                                            PRICE, mn
   1.94                                               ROAD
                                                                                            USD / ha
             1.87
                                    1.4           Dmitrovskoe shosse                A104      0.5-1.5
                                            1.4   Yaroslavskoe shosse                M8      0.5 - 1.5
                    1.07     1.38                 Gorkovskoe shosse                  M7      0.5 - 1.2
                                                  Novoryazanskoe shosse              M5       0.5-1.2
                                                  Kashirskoe shosse                  M4      0.6 - 1.5
                                                  Simferopolskoe shosse              M2        0.8 - 1
                                                  Kaluzhskoeshosse shosse           A101        1-1.5
                                                  Kievskoe shosse                    M3            1-2
2007      2008   2009     2010   2011     2012    Minskoe shosse                      M1            1-1.5
                                                  Novorizhskoe shosse                 M9              2-4
                                                  Leningradskoe shosse               M10          1.5-2.5

                                                                            CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD       43
MOSCOW REGION                       MARKETBEAT
                                      Q3 2012
Land prices




                 DISTANCE          PRICE, mn
                FROM MKAD           USD / ha
                  MKAD                2.5 - 3
                   5 km               1 – 1.5
                  15 km              0.6 - 0.8
                  30 km              0.4 - 0.6
                  50 km              0.3 - 0.5




                          CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD    44
MARKETBEAT
                            Q3 2012




CAPITAL MARKETS




                  CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD   45
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS                                                                                                                                            MARKETBEAT
                                                                                                                                                                                  Q3 2012
  Global Markets

                              EUROPEAN MARKET                                                                       WORLDWIDE MARKET
                                                                                                 NYC Metro          35,795
         London Metro                                                                  32,500
                                                                                                London Metro        32,500
                  Paris                                        18,694                                 Tokyo         24,610
               Moscow                      8,625                                                  Hong Kong         20,188
                                                                                                       Paris        18,694
             Stockholm                  6,796
                                                                                                   LA Metro         18,298
    Berlin-Brandenburg                 5,650
                                                                                                    Shanghai        17,607
            Rhine-Ruhr            4,691                                                             SF Metro        17,513

   Frankfurt/Rhine-Main          3,945                                                             DC Metro         17,409
                                                                                                   Singapore        16,907
                Munich           3,785
                                                                                                      Beijing       13,454
   Amsterdam/Randstad            3,733                                                             Chongqing        10,781
        South Germany           2,925                                                                Chicago        10,196
                                                                                                     Moscow         8,625
                  Oslo          2,871
                                                                                                       Seoul        8,595
       Saint Petersburg        2,686
                                                                                                     Boston         8,020
              Hamburg          2,495                                                                Shenyang        7,931

               Warsaw          2,449                                                                  Tianjin       7,667
                                                                                                      Dallas        7,626
           Copenhagen          2,077
                                                                                                     Wuhan          7,620
                          0    5,000     10,000    15,000   20,000   25,000   30,000   35,000
                                                                                                                0      5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000
                                                        $ mn


Moscow is the 3rd investment market in Europe and 14th market worldwide (2 places up compared to 2011 eoy).
Now there are 2 Russian cities in Top 15 of European investment markets. St. Petersburg became reliable investment location.
Data of Real Capital Analytics based on 12 past month basis                                                                                                       CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD        46
RUSSIAN INVESTMENT MARKET                                                                                                                                MARKETBEAT
                                                                                                                                                                            Q3 2012
                 Russian Investments split
                  By sector
         8,000                                                                                                By origin
                                                                                          7,547.4
                                                                                                    7,200
         7,000                                                                                                                                                        Foreign investors
                                                                                                                     35%
                                                                                                                                                                      Domestic investors
                                                            5,797.9                                                              39%
         6,000                                                                                      5,524.4
                                                5,354                                                                                         61%                     2012 forecast
                                                                                                                                                          65%
         5,000                      4,559.8
mn USD




                                                                                 3,994
         4,000

         3,000                                                                                                By geography
                                                                      2,256                                                             2%

         2,000            1,637.3                                                                                          18%
                                                                                                                                         1%                            Moscow
                                                                                                                                  21%
                                                                                                                                                                       St. Petersburg
         1,000    491.5                                                                                                                                                Regions
                                                                                                                                              78%
            0
                                                                                                                                                                       2012 forecast
                  2004    2005      2006        2007        2008      2009       2010       2011     2012                                           80%


                          Office       Retail           Industrial       Other           Forecast

                 • We increased our forecast for 2012 investments to US$ 7.2 bn
                                                                                                                                                                CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD     47
INVESTMENT MARKET IN NUMBERS                                                                      MARKETBEAT
                                                                                                         Q3 2012
     2012 investments breakdown in $mn

                    $5,524 bn OF TOTAL YEAR-TO-DATE INVESTMENTS

MOSCOW               $4,308.8            Offices                 $1,672.30     23%
                                                                                                       Offices

                                                                                                 39%   Shopping Centers
                                         Shopping Centers        $1,109
ST. PETERSBURG      $1,140.7             W&I                     $513.60     12%                       W&I

                                                                                                       Hospitality and
                                         Hospitality and other   $1,014                                other
REGIONS             $74.9                                                            26%




                                                                                     5%
                                         Offices                 -                                     Offices

                                                                                                       Shopping Centers
 Moscow is the core market for Office    Shopping Centers        $1,084.70

 and W&I segments                        W&I                     -
                                                                                                       W&I

                                                                                                       Hospitality and
                                         Hospitality and other   $56                       95%         other




                                                                                             CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD          48
Q3 2012 Marketbeat Presentation Eng Main
Q3 2012 Marketbeat Presentation Eng Main
Q3 2012 Marketbeat Presentation Eng Main
Q3 2012 Marketbeat Presentation Eng Main
Q3 2012 Marketbeat Presentation Eng Main
Q3 2012 Marketbeat Presentation Eng Main

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Q3 2012 Marketbeat Presentation Eng Main

  • 1. MARKETBEAT REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE Q3 2012 OCTOBER 2012
  • 2. INFORMATION RESOURCES MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 WEB SOCIAL NETWORKS iCushman CWRUSSIA.RU Market information, contacts news Mobile application for Commercial real MARKETBEAT.RU estate professionals, available at iTunes Latest Marketbeat report, reports archive, interactive maps CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 1
  • 3. INTERACTIVE MAPS MARKETBEAT Click to open in browser Q3 2012 OFFICES SHOPPING WAREHOUSES CENTERS Для работы интерактивной карты необходим You need Flash player installed and internet CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 2 Flash Player и соединение с интернет connection for interactive map to run
  • 4. MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 AGENDA MACROECONOMY RETAIL OFFICE WAREHOUSE LAND CAPITAL MARKETS CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 3
  • 5. MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 MACROECONOMY CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 4
  • 6. MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 Russia’s economy is competitive INTERNATIONAL LOCAL INDICATORS COMPARISONS UK 2011 Q3 2012 2012F 2012F REAL ECONOMY France GDP 4.3% 4.0% 3.4% 3% Germany INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 4.7% 3.1% 3.1% 5% Brazil CONSUMER SECTOR US RETAIL TRADE TURNOVER 7.0% 6.6% 6.3% 4% REAL WAGES 4.2% 10% 6.3% 8.8% Russia REAL DISPOSABLE INCOME 0.8% 3.6% 5.0% CPI 6.1% 5.2% 5 - 6% 6% India RUR/USD ANNUAL AVERAGE 29.39 30.99 27.9 30.7 China -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% – Ministry for Economic development has left its forecast for 2012 unchanged despite of – IMF has decreased the GDP forecast to recent deceleration 3.4%, but Russia still looks competitive CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 5
  • 7. OIL PRICE AND BUDGET PERFORMANCE MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 500 120 • The budget is performing with small 1.4% GDP surplus 400 100 • One year ago the surplus was 2.3% GDP 300 80 • Average URALS price in Q1- US$ / bbl bn US$ 200 60 Q3 2012 was $111 / bbl 100 40 0 20 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD -100 0 Budget revenue (left) Budget expenditure (left) Deficit / Surplus (left) Urals actual average (right) CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 6
  • 8. CAPITAL OUTFLOW MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 100 • The capital outflow is comparable to 2011, but the pattern has changed. 50 • The outflow is mainly generated by non-banking sector 0 increasing and is comparable to the one in 2008, whereas the USD bn banking sector provided small -50 inflow. -100 -150 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD Total outflow Banks Other sectors CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 7
  • 9. CONSUMERS MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND CONSUMER LOANS AND DEPOSITS GROWTH INDUSTRIAL OPTIMISM 20% 30% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% -10% -10% -20% -20% -30% -40% -30% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Consumer confidence index, % Industrial optimism index, % Deposits growth, % Loans growth, % • Consumer confidence is decreasing on the negative short-term expectations • According to CBR statistics, consumers withdraw money from banks, loans growth is decelerating. The role of saving pattern is increasing, with less trust to banks as to saving instruments. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 8
  • 10. RETAIL MARKET VOLUME MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 Russia is No.4 Retail Market in Europe RETAIL TURNOVER IN EUROPE* RUSSIA RETAIL TURNOVER ** 20% Others** 56.1 Slovakia 15.3 Croatia 15.7 Hungary 30.1 15% Romania 31.9 Ireland 36.6 France 530.3 Czech Republic 39.7 Germany 528.3 Finland 50.3 10% Portugal 55.2 Norway 55.6 5% Denmark 57.6 United Greece 59.6 Kingdom 455.7 0% Austria 64.9 Sweden 88.5 -5% Switzerland 90.9 Belgium 93.6 Russia 433.7 -10% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Poland 108.7 Netherlands Spain 264.3 Italy 329.7 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 123.1 Turkey 181.6 RUSSIA RETAIL TURNOVER GROWTH IS DECELERATING BUT STILL ONE OF THE LARGEST IN EUROPE AND IS ONE OF THE DRIVERS OF GDP GROWTH IN 2012 *Data of 2010, bn USD , GFK GeoMarketing **Source: ROSSTAT CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 9
  • 11. RETAIL SALES MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 Russian consumers are important players RETAIL SALES PER CAPITA FOR EUROPEAN COUNTRIES Luxembourg 11,840 Switzerland 10,161 Norway 9,628 Denmark 9,435 Austria 8,947 Moscow 7,874 France 7,829 Belgium 7,715 Great Britain 6,297 Italy 5,850 Germany 5,501 Portugal 4,852 Russia 4,457 Spain 3,215 Hungary 2,699 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 Source: ROSSTAT, RegioData Research CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 10
  • 12. RETAIL SPENDING MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 Russians are the most active consumers in Europe RETAIL SPENDING IN EUROPE* RUSSIA CONSUMER PATTERN 110% 100% 90% Share of retail spending in total 80% Country private spending 70% 60% Russia 77% 50% 40% Czech Republic 40% 30% Poland 38% 20% France 35% 10% 0% Germany 28% -10% United Kingdom 31% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD Goods and services Obligatory payments Savings Currency purchase Money on hand growth AVERAGE RUSSIAN CITIZEN SPENDS 78% OF HIS/HER INCOME FOR RETAIL AVERAGE SALARY IN RUSSIA – 25 704 RUR Source: ROSSTAT, GFK GeoMarketing CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 11
  • 13. CONSUMERS MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 Russian consumer market has strong upside CONSUMER CREDIT/GDP RATIO 120.0% –Russian consumer credit market was not growing fast enough in comparison with other 100.0% countries –Average Russian citizen owes $1091 in loans 80.0% Czech Bulgaria Germany 60.0% Spain France Italy 40.0% Russia UK 20.0% 0.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: EUROSTAT CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 12
  • 14. MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 RETAIL MARKET CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 13
  • 15. RETAILERS MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 NEW RETAILERS 2012 COMING SOON CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 14
  • 16. NEW RETAILERS MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 New reasons to visit shopping center –The most notable opening in 2012 is COMING SOON Debenhams store. – In 2012 all new international brands are coming to Russia with Russian partners –New brands are coming to Moscow initially with expansion plants for Russian regions (mostly “millionniki” cities) –New Russian brands: » Cosmopolitan Fine Jewellery, CookHouse, Kari, Sabotage – Closed NEW RETAILERS 2012 » Peacocks, Saturn (Metro Group) ` CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 15
  • 17. HYPERMARKETS MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 Historic expansion of hypermarkets and impressive development plans 160 140 120 Total units trading 100 80 60 40 20 0 1992 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Auchan O’KEY Lenta REAL CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 16
  • 18. NON-FOOD RETAILERS MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 Historic expansion of non-food big boxes and impressive development plans 80 70 60 Total units trading 50 40 30 20 10 0 1992 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Leroy Merlin OBI Castorama Media Markt CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 17
  • 19. SHOPPING CENTERS MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 Europe 2011, sq.m of quality retail per ‘000 inhabitant Norway Sweden Luxembourg Estonia RETAIL FORMATS: Ireland Slovenia Netherlands 1. SHOPPING CENTER Finland Austria Moscow Denmark 2. STREET RETAIL 3. DEPARTMENT STORE Lithuania Latvia Portugal United Kingdom France EU-27 Average 4. RETAIL OUTLET – to come soon Switzerland Croatia Spain Italy 5. RETAIL PARK – not in Russia yet Poland Slovakia Czech Rep. 6. RETAIL WAREHOUSE – not in Malta Germany Russia yet Hungary Romania Belgium Russia Turkey Bulgaria Moscow region Ukraine Greece Serbia Bosnia Herz. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Source: Cushman&Wakefield Research CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 18
  • 20. SHOPPING CENTERS MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 Quarterly monitoring FOOTFALL, Q1 2010=100% VACANCY RATE, % 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 1.65% 3.05% 1.58% 0.80% 0.95% 1.00% 1.05% 0.97% 0.41% 0.65% 0.80% 0.41% 60% Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2009 2010 2011 2012 2009 2010 2011 2012 – Share of "successful shoppers" in visitors is 43.9% (Q3 2012) and at the highest level since Q4 2009 – Footfall in shopping centers is in line with seasonable trend – Vacancy rate in established shopping malls with stabilized catchment area is extremely low * Cushman&Wakefield Research quarterly monitoring of 9 quality shopping centers (total GLA - 0.5 mn sq m). CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 19 These shopping centers have been opened more than one year ago and have the clear catchment area.
  • 21. SHOPPING CENTERS – RUSSIA* MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 QUALITY RETAIL SPACE UNDER CONSTRUCTION PIPELINE OF QUALITY SHOPPING CENTERS, (IN SHOPPING CENTERS), ‘000 SQ M GLA 50,000+, 2012 1912 City Property Name Retail GLA, sq.m Delivery 1558 Volgograd KomsoMall (Slava) 68,000 Q1 Krasnodar Krasnaya Plozhad 50,000 Q1 1143 1149 1189 St. Petersburg RIO 52,500 Q2 Krasnodar Oz Mall 169,000 Q2 Ryazan Premier 50,000 Q2 866 Nizhnyi Novgorod Sedmoe Nebo 60,800 Q3 Ekaterinburg Prizma 70,400 Q4 Nizhnyi Novgorod (E RIO k ) 68,000 Q4 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (forecast) Surgut Surgut City Mall 69,600 Q4 Announced developers plans CW Forecast New construction Sochi Moremall 80,000 Q4 Ekaterinburg Raduga Park 56,000 Q4 Belgorod Megagreen 53,000 Q4 – There are 355 quality shopping malls in Russia (excluding Moscow and Moscow Surgut Aura 65,000 Q4 agglomeration) total GLA 9 ,962, 317 sq m Total GLA of shopping centers > 50,000 sq 912,300 Total GLA 1,918,464 – 17 new quality shopping malls were delivered in Q1-Q3 2012 * Without Moscow and Moscow region Source: Cushman&Wakefield Research CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 20
  • 22. SHOPPING CENTERS – MOSCOW AND MOSCOW REGION MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 Construction of shopping centers in Moscow is down QUALITY RETIAL SPACE UNDER CONSTRUCTION PIPELINE OF QUALITY SHOPPING CENTERS *, 2012 (IN SHOPPING CENTERS), ‘000 SQ M Property Name Retail GLA, sq.m Delivery Moscow 599 Hotel Moskva 21,000 Q1 515 Sombrero 6,000 Q2 443 Outlet Village Belaya 412 24,000 Q3 Dacha Sviblovo (former Friz) 15,000 Q3 266 Otrada (2 phase) 28,000 Q4 Kaleidoskop 41,000 Q4 Favorit 21,900 Q4 Moskvorechye 19,800 Q4 114 Parus 17,280 Q4 Perovo 5,000 Q4 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total GLA 198,980 (forecast) Moscow Region Domodedovo Torgovy Kvartal 22,500 Q1 Announced developers plans CW Forecast New construction Krasnogorsk Solnechniy Ray 8,000 Q3 Krasnogorsk June 17,500 Q3 Mytischi June 75,000 Q4 – There are 115 quality shopping malls in Moscow, total GLA 3,449 ,610 SQM Mytischi Krasny Kit (2 phase) 35,000 Q4 Korolev SC on Kosmonavtov 22,500 Q4 – 6 new quality shopping malls and the first Russia outlet were delivered in Q1-Q3 2012 Zelenograd Panfilovskiy 13,300 Q4 Lytkarino Vesna 12,500 Q4 Odintsovo Westore 7,600 Q4 – Less new projects are announced and pipeline is drying out Total GLA 213,900 * Outlets are included, retail part of mix-use complexes are not included Source: Cushman&Wakefield Research CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 21
  • 23. SHOPPING CENTERS : RENTAL RATES MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 Moscow rental rates are stable QUALITY SHOPPING CENTERS RETAIL GALLERY Q3 2012 prime retail indicator** is Gross leasable area,sq m Business type Retail Gallery Mini Anchors 3,800 USD <100 100 - 300 300 - 800 800 - 1,500 per sq.m per annum, base rate Kiosks $2,000 Cellphones $3,500 Drugstore $1,200-$1,500 Banks $1,200-$1,500 Restaurant $1,200 $600-$1000 Textiles $1,200 $800 Books $1,000 $500-$600 $400 $300 Clothing and Footwear $1,200 $800 $600 $400 White and Brown $500 Supermarket $750 Source: Cushman&Wakefield Research CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 22
  • 24. RETAIL STREETS : RENTAL RATES MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 Moscow rental rates are stable STREET USD/sq. m/annum 2012 trend 1st Tverskaya Yamskaya $1,500 - $2 ,500 up Arbat $1,500 - $2,500 up Garden Ring $1,000 - $2,500 stable Kutuzovsky Prospekt $1,000 - $2,500 stable Kuznetsky Most $2,000 - $2,500 stable Leningradsky Prospekt $1,000 - $2,000 stable Leninsky prospect $1,000 - $2,000 stable Prospect Mira $1,200 - $2,000 stable Novy Arbat $1,500 - $2,500 up Petrovka $3,000 - $4,000 up Pyatnitskaya $1,500 - $2,000 stable Tverskaya $3,500 - $4,500 up Stoleshnikov per. $3,500 - $4,500 up Source: Cushman&Wakefield Research CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 23
  • 25. LEASE TERMS MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 Behind the rent ITEM COMMENT Lease Terms Standard lease terms are between 3-5 years with some up to 10 -15 for anchors. Break options are not common in the market. Rental Payment Rents are typically payable monthly in advance.Turnover / percentage rents are increasingly seen in shopping centres. Rental rates are generally calculated in USD, Euro or commercial units are used. In less quality shopping centres rental rates are calculated in RUR. Rent Deposit The rent deposit required in quality shopping centres is typically between 1 – 3 months rent equitant. Indexation Annual indexation is typical between 3-10% or at a level of USD / EU CPI. The practice of premium / key money payments is seldom seen in Russia. Rent reviews are rare on the market. Service Charges Service charge is payable by tenants at either an “open book” basis or more common as a fixed cost. Utilities payments are charged on consumption. Building insurance is normally charged back to tenant via service charge. Other costs VAT 18% Local property taxes are not paid separately, they are generally included in the service charges. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 24
  • 26. MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 OFFICE MARKET CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 25
  • 27. MOSCOW OFFICE INDICATORS MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 New construction, Take up and Vacancy rate High demand '000 sq m –450,000 sq m (take up) 2,200 14% 2,000 12% Fair net absorption 1,800 1,600 10% –31.8 % from take-up 1,400 1,200 8% Low new construction 1,000 6% 800 –176,500 sq m 600 4% 400 Decreasing Vacancy 2% 200 –11.3% 0 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 F2012 F2013 F2014 F2015 Stable Rental Rates New construction (2012: Q1-Q3) New construction Forecast (2012: Q4) Take-up (2012: Q1-Q3) Take-up Forecast (2012: Q4) –Prime $1,200 Vacancy rate –Class A $790 –Class B $450 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 26
  • 28. SUPPLY MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 Shortage in Downtown, excessive in outskirts OFFICE STOCK AND VACANCY OFFICE STOCK AND VACANCY mn sq m Class B Class A 15 25% vacant occupied 1.06 2.06 12 20% Class A vacant 9 15% 0.41 6 10% 3 5% 0 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 F2013 F2014 F2015 Class B Stock, Class B, (2012: Q1-Q3) Stock, Class A, (2012: Q1-Q3) occupied 9.46 Vacancy rate, Class A Vacancy rate, Class B • The volume of space under construction is growing. There is 3.24 mn sq m of quality office space under construction, which is 0.64 mn sq m more than at the beginning of the year. • Most new constructions of class A are concentrated in the Central business district, with most class B in the CBD and Other Trading Areas (OTA). CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 27
  • 29. AVAILABILITY MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 High vacancy but limited number of options VACANCY RATE AND AVAILABLE SPACE BY BUSINESS AREAS, Q3 2012 133 140 12.6% Downtown 6.0% 22.4% 239 343 Central 9.4% ` ` 10.6% 39 576 OTA 12.8% Class A Class B • The average vacancy rate is stable (and has contracted from 11.6% in Q2 down to 11.3% in Q3). • Some submarkets are experiencing extremely low availability, for example in the Belorussky and Frunzensky submarkets the vacancy rate is less than 5%, which indicates a strong deficit of quality space in these areas. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 28
  • 30. DEMAND MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 High turnover, low net absorption TAKE-UP (’000 SQ M) '000 sq m 86% 79% 84% 2,600 83% 86% 90% • Office take up levels were positive over the 80% 75% 2,400 80% 2,200 2,000 70% quarter with over 450,000 sq.m transacted. 1,800 1,600 60% • Occupier demand is steady as tenants look to 1,400 50% consolidate or renegotiate leases. 1,200 40% 1,000 30% • This year the Moscow office market may 800 600 20% overcome the historic high of 2 mn sq m in 400 10% office transactions. 200 0 0% • At the same time, Net Absorption is lower 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 F2012 F2013 F2014 F2015 than in previous years and is about 31,1% of Forecast Class B (B+ and B-) Class B (B+ and B-) Forecast Class A Class A Gross Absorption (or take-up). Share of lease deals CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 29
  • 31. NET ABSORPTION AND TAKE UP MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 In balance ABSORPTION VS. TAKE-UP ABSORPTION VS. NEW CONSTRUCTION 1.97 1.75 1.81 2.17 1.51 1.48 1.35 1.81 1.27 1.49 1.39 1.35 0.74 0.74 0.76 0.63 0.88 0.74 0.76 0.46 0.63 0.65 0.46 0.45 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q 1-3 2012 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q 1-3 2012 Take-up Absorption New construction Absorption • Originally Take up was close to net absorption, because companies were Net absorption—represents the change in the occupied stock within a moving to newly constructed buildings from old stock market during the period. Calculation: Net Absorption =X-Y • In 2008 Net absorption was higher than Take up because of high number of Where: pre-lease contracts in 2007. As the result of massive preleases, fully let X = Current stock – current vacancy buildings were delivered to the market Y = Previous stock (same quarter, previous year) – previous • Low net absorption and high take up indicates maturity of Moscow market vacancy (same quarter, previous year) CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 30
  • 32. MOSCOW OFFICE MARKET NET ABSORPTION MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 Interactive chart Flash player is required for interactive content CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 31
  • 33. RENTAL RATES MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 Stability is the key RENTAL RATES BY CLASSES • High activity by tenants has had little impact on rents, $1,090.0 which remain flat for all classes and all submarkets. In the vast majority of office buildings in Moscow, asking $938.4 rents are stable. $790.0 • Nevertheless, there are positive dynamics in Class A $710.0 $717.4 $640.0 $760.0 $800.0 $850.0 average rental rates. In Q3 class A average rents have $810.0 $743.0 $750.0 grown from USD 750 to USD 790 due to the $627.9 $450.0 $600.0 respectively high proportion of transactions in the $521.4 $510.0 $490.0 $550.0 Central area (46% in Q3 compared with a traditional $420.0 $437.0 $450.0 30%). The higher share of more expensive deals pushed average rents up. 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 F2012 F2013 F2014 F2015 • Tenants’ incentives are as low as possible, discounts Class A Class B (B+ and B-) from asking rental rates are not often granted or are Class A Q3 Class A Q3 low (about 5% on average). • We expect stable rents until the end of this year and • Prime $1,200 possibly well into 2013. • Class A $ 790 • Class B $ 450 * Rental rates – base asking rates for deals closed within the period per sq m per annum, triple net CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 32
  • 34. MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 Rental rates by submarket Flash player required for interactive content CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 33
  • 35. MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 WAREHOUSE & INDUSTRIAL CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 34
  • 36. MOSCOW SUPPLY MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 New construction of quality warehouses (A and B classes) 1,400 2012 1,200 – New construction (Q1-Q3 2012) 1,000 531,000 sq. m – Total pipeline 840,000 sq. m '000 sq m 800 600 2013 400 – Total pipeline 1.700,000 sq m 200 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F New construction Planned CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 35
  • 37. RENTAL RATES MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 Rental rates and lease terms COLD CLASS A CLASS B CLASS C STORAGES $150 Net Rent Rates, $140 $/sq m/year 130 -140 120-130** 170** 251 $140 $135 $132 Operating Expenses, $/sq m/year 30-40 20-30 - - $130 Utility Charges, $135 $/sq m/year 10-15 10 - - $127 $130 $120 Yearly rent indexation CPI-3% 8-10% n/d n/d Minimum Lease Term, $110 years 5-10 1-5 - - $109 Contract security, $100 $105 months 3-6 1-3 - - Advance Payment, 1-3 1-3 1 - $90 months Contract currency USD/EUR RUB RUB RUB $80 Minimal lease area, 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F sq m 3 500 - - CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 36
  • 38. VACANCY RATE MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 Vacancy rate in Class A, Moscow region –The vacancy rate remained stable since Q3 2011; –In the short-term vacancy rate will not change. 11.2% 9.1% 8.1% 3.9% 2.8% 1.5% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1.0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2010 2011 2012 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 37
  • 39. SUPPLY MAP MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 Distribution of W&I space in Moscow region EXISTING 2012-2013 PIPELINE Dmitrovskoe shosse (A104) Dmitrovskoe 1,000 shosse (A104) Leningradskoe Yaroslavskoe 600 900 Leningradskoe Yaroslavskoe shosse (M10) shosse (M8) 800 shosse (M10) 500 shosse (M8) 700 600 400 Novorizhskoe Shelkovskoe shosse (M9) 500 shosse (A103) Novorizhskoe Shelkovskoe shosse (M9) 300 shosse (A103) 400 300 200 200 100 100 Minskoe Gorkovskoe Minskoe Gorkovskoe 0 0 shosse (M1) shosse (M7) shosse (M1) shosse (M7) Kievskoe Novoryazanskoe Kievskoe Novoryazanskoe shosse (MЗ) shosse (M5) shosse (MЗ) shosse (M5) Kaluzhskoe Kashirskoe Kaluzhskoe Kashirskoe shosse (A101) shosse (M4) shosse (A101) shosse (M4) Simferopolskoe Simferopolskoe shosse (M2) shosse (M2) 30+ km 10-30 km 0-10 km Moscow 30+ km 10-30 km 0-10 km Moscow CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 38
  • 40. DEMAND STRUCTURE MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 Market share and deal size STRUCTURE OF DEMAND AVERAGE DEAL SIZE 20 Producer Retailer 24% 40% 16 12 '000 sq m Other 8 2% 4 Logistic 17% 14.83 10.29 8.35 10.66 18.63 0 Distributor 17% Distributor Logistic Other Producer Retailer • During Q1-Q3 2012 the demand was generated by retail and industrial companies. • The requests for the biggest rentable areas came from retail (18,000 sq m in average) and industrial(11,000 sq m)companies. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 39
  • 41. DEMAND MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 Take-up 600 • Q3 2012 was the record- 500 breaker in Moscow region since Q1 2008. 400 '000 SQ M 300 • In the total volume of 200 transactions completed in Q3 100 2012 the share of warehouse sales comprises 30%. 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 Moscow Regions CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 40
  • 42. REGIONS MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 Regional rental rates, USD per sq.m. $140 Avg base rental Avg leased area, CITY rates, sq m $120 USD / annum Moscow 135-140 10,000-15,000 $100 St. Petersburg 120-130 2,000-10,000 Ekaterinburg 110-115 5,000-10,000 $80 Nizhnyi Novgorod 110-120 3,000-5,000 Samara 110-115 3,000-5,000 $60 Kazan 90-100 3,000-5,000 Rostov-On-Don 115-120 3,000-5,000 $40 Krasnodar 110-120 3,000-5,000 Novosibirsk 110-115 2,000-5,000 $20 Ufa 90-100 3,000-5,000 $0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F St. Petersburg Ekaterinburg Rostov-On-Don CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 41
  • 43. MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 LAND MARKET CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 42
  • 44. MOSCOW REGION MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 Stable, growing market MOSCOW REGION AVERAGE INDUSTRIAL PRICE FOR INDUSTRIAL LAND IN LAND PRICE, mn USD/ha MOSCOW REGION by direction PRICE, mn 1.94 ROAD USD / ha 1.87 1.4 Dmitrovskoe shosse A104 0.5-1.5 1.4 Yaroslavskoe shosse M8 0.5 - 1.5 1.07 1.38 Gorkovskoe shosse M7 0.5 - 1.2 Novoryazanskoe shosse M5 0.5-1.2 Kashirskoe shosse M4 0.6 - 1.5 Simferopolskoe shosse M2 0.8 - 1 Kaluzhskoeshosse shosse A101 1-1.5 Kievskoe shosse M3 1-2 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Minskoe shosse M1 1-1.5 Novorizhskoe shosse M9 2-4 Leningradskoe shosse M10 1.5-2.5 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 43
  • 45. MOSCOW REGION MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 Land prices DISTANCE PRICE, mn FROM MKAD USD / ha MKAD 2.5 - 3 5 km 1 – 1.5 15 km 0.6 - 0.8 30 km 0.4 - 0.6 50 km 0.3 - 0.5 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 44
  • 46. MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 CAPITAL MARKETS CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 45
  • 47. COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 Global Markets EUROPEAN MARKET WORLDWIDE MARKET NYC Metro 35,795 London Metro 32,500 London Metro 32,500 Paris 18,694 Tokyo 24,610 Moscow 8,625 Hong Kong 20,188 Paris 18,694 Stockholm 6,796 LA Metro 18,298 Berlin-Brandenburg 5,650 Shanghai 17,607 Rhine-Ruhr 4,691 SF Metro 17,513 Frankfurt/Rhine-Main 3,945 DC Metro 17,409 Singapore 16,907 Munich 3,785 Beijing 13,454 Amsterdam/Randstad 3,733 Chongqing 10,781 South Germany 2,925 Chicago 10,196 Moscow 8,625 Oslo 2,871 Seoul 8,595 Saint Petersburg 2,686 Boston 8,020 Hamburg 2,495 Shenyang 7,931 Warsaw 2,449 Tianjin 7,667 Dallas 7,626 Copenhagen 2,077 Wuhan 7,620 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 $ mn Moscow is the 3rd investment market in Europe and 14th market worldwide (2 places up compared to 2011 eoy). Now there are 2 Russian cities in Top 15 of European investment markets. St. Petersburg became reliable investment location. Data of Real Capital Analytics based on 12 past month basis CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 46
  • 48. RUSSIAN INVESTMENT MARKET MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 Russian Investments split By sector 8,000 By origin 7,547.4 7,200 7,000 Foreign investors 35% Domestic investors 5,797.9 39% 6,000 5,524.4 5,354 61% 2012 forecast 65% 5,000 4,559.8 mn USD 3,994 4,000 3,000 By geography 2,256 2% 2,000 1,637.3 18% 1% Moscow 21% St. Petersburg 1,000 491.5 Regions 78% 0 2012 forecast 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 80% Office Retail Industrial Other Forecast • We increased our forecast for 2012 investments to US$ 7.2 bn CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 47
  • 49. INVESTMENT MARKET IN NUMBERS MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 2012 investments breakdown in $mn $5,524 bn OF TOTAL YEAR-TO-DATE INVESTMENTS MOSCOW $4,308.8 Offices $1,672.30 23% Offices 39% Shopping Centers Shopping Centers $1,109 ST. PETERSBURG $1,140.7 W&I $513.60 12% W&I Hospitality and Hospitality and other $1,014 other REGIONS $74.9 26% 5% Offices - Offices Shopping Centers Moscow is the core market for Office Shopping Centers $1,084.70 and W&I segments W&I - W&I Hospitality and Hospitality and other $56 95% other CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 48