2. INFORMATION RESOURCES MARKETBEAT
Q3 2012
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Mobile application for Commercial real
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Latest Marketbeat report, reports
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CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 1
3. INTERACTIVE MAPS MARKETBEAT
Click to open in browser Q3 2012
OFFICES SHOPPING WAREHOUSES
CENTERS
Для работы интерактивной карты необходим You need Flash player installed and internet
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 2
Flash Player и соединение с интернет connection for interactive map to run
4. MARKETBEAT
Q3 2012
AGENDA
MACROECONOMY
RETAIL
OFFICE
WAREHOUSE
LAND
CAPITAL MARKETS
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 3
6. MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS MARKETBEAT
Q3 2012
Russia’s economy is competitive
INTERNATIONAL LOCAL INDICATORS
COMPARISONS
UK 2011 Q3 2012 2012F 2012F
REAL ECONOMY
France
GDP 4.3% 4.0% 3.4% 3%
Germany INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 4.7% 3.1% 3.1% 5%
Brazil
CONSUMER SECTOR
US RETAIL TRADE TURNOVER 7.0% 6.6% 6.3% 4%
REAL WAGES 4.2% 10% 6.3% 8.8%
Russia REAL DISPOSABLE INCOME 0.8% 3.6% 5.0%
CPI 6.1% 5.2% 5 - 6% 6%
India
RUR/USD ANNUAL AVERAGE 29.39 30.99 27.9 30.7
China
-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
– Ministry for Economic development has left its forecast for 2012 unchanged despite of
– IMF has decreased the GDP forecast to
recent deceleration
3.4%, but Russia still looks competitive
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 5
7. OIL PRICE AND BUDGET PERFORMANCE MARKETBEAT
Q3 2012
500 120
• The budget is performing with
small 1.4% GDP surplus
400 100
• One year ago the surplus was
2.3% GDP
300 80
• Average URALS price in Q1-
US$ / bbl
bn US$
200 60
Q3 2012 was $111 / bbl
100 40
0 20
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD
-100 0
Budget revenue (left) Budget expenditure (left)
Deficit / Surplus (left) Urals actual average (right)
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 6
8. CAPITAL OUTFLOW MARKETBEAT
Q3 2012
100
• The capital outflow is
comparable to 2011, but the
pattern has changed.
50
• The outflow is mainly
generated by non-banking sector
0 increasing and is comparable to
the one in 2008, whereas the
USD bn
banking sector provided small
-50 inflow.
-100
-150
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD
Total outflow Banks Other sectors
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 7
9. CONSUMERS MARKETBEAT
Q3 2012
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND CONSUMER LOANS AND DEPOSITS GROWTH
INDUSTRIAL OPTIMISM
20%
30%
20% 10%
10%
0%
0%
-10% -10%
-20%
-20%
-30%
-40% -30%
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Consumer confidence index, % Industrial optimism index, %
Deposits growth, % Loans growth, %
• Consumer confidence is decreasing on the negative short-term expectations
• According to CBR statistics, consumers withdraw money from banks, loans growth is decelerating. The role of saving pattern is
increasing, with less trust to banks as to saving instruments.
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 8
10. RETAIL MARKET VOLUME MARKETBEAT
Q3 2012
Russia is No.4 Retail Market in Europe
RETAIL TURNOVER IN EUROPE* RUSSIA RETAIL TURNOVER **
20%
Others** 56.1
Slovakia 15.3
Croatia 15.7
Hungary 30.1 15%
Romania 31.9
Ireland 36.6
France 530.3
Czech Republic 39.7 Germany 528.3
Finland 50.3 10%
Portugal 55.2
Norway 55.6
5%
Denmark 57.6
United
Greece 59.6
Kingdom 455.7 0%
Austria 64.9
Sweden 88.5
-5%
Switzerland 90.9
Belgium 93.6 Russia 433.7 -10%
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Poland 108.7
Netherlands Spain 264.3 Italy 329.7 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
123.1
Turkey 181.6
RUSSIA RETAIL TURNOVER GROWTH IS DECELERATING BUT STILL ONE OF THE LARGEST
IN EUROPE AND IS ONE OF THE DRIVERS OF GDP GROWTH IN 2012
*Data of 2010, bn USD , GFK GeoMarketing
**Source: ROSSTAT CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 9
11. RETAIL SALES MARKETBEAT
Q3 2012
Russian consumers are important players
RETAIL SALES PER CAPITA FOR EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
Luxembourg 11,840
Switzerland 10,161
Norway 9,628
Denmark 9,435
Austria 8,947
Moscow 7,874
France 7,829
Belgium 7,715
Great Britain 6,297
Italy 5,850
Germany 5,501
Portugal 4,852
Russia 4,457
Spain 3,215
Hungary 2,699
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000
Source: ROSSTAT, RegioData Research CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 10
12. RETAIL SPENDING MARKETBEAT
Q3 2012
Russians are the most active consumers in Europe
RETAIL SPENDING IN EUROPE* RUSSIA CONSUMER PATTERN
110%
100%
90%
Share of retail spending in total 80%
Country
private spending 70%
60%
Russia 77% 50%
40%
Czech Republic 40%
30%
Poland 38% 20%
France 35% 10%
0%
Germany 28% -10%
United Kingdom 31% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD
Goods and services Obligatory payments Savings
Currency purchase Money on hand growth
AVERAGE RUSSIAN CITIZEN SPENDS 78% OF HIS/HER INCOME FOR RETAIL
AVERAGE SALARY IN RUSSIA – 25 704 RUR
Source: ROSSTAT, GFK GeoMarketing
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 11
13. CONSUMERS MARKETBEAT
Q3 2012
Russian consumer market has strong upside
CONSUMER CREDIT/GDP RATIO
120.0%
–Russian consumer credit market was not
growing fast enough in comparison with other
100.0% countries
–Average Russian citizen owes $1091 in loans
80.0% Czech
Bulgaria
Germany
60.0% Spain
France
Italy
40.0%
Russia
UK
20.0%
0.0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: EUROSTAT CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 12
16. NEW RETAILERS MARKETBEAT
Q3 2012
New reasons to visit shopping center
–The most notable opening in 2012 is
COMING SOON Debenhams store.
– In 2012 all new international brands are coming
to Russia with Russian partners
–New brands are coming to Moscow initially
with expansion plants for Russian regions
(mostly “millionniki” cities)
–New Russian brands:
» Cosmopolitan Fine Jewellery, CookHouse, Kari,
Sabotage
– Closed
NEW RETAILERS 2012
» Peacocks, Saturn (Metro Group)
`
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 15
17. HYPERMARKETS MARKETBEAT
Q3 2012
Historic expansion of hypermarkets and impressive development plans
160
140
120
Total units trading
100
80
60
40
20
0
1992 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Auchan O’KEY Lenta REAL
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 16
18. NON-FOOD RETAILERS MARKETBEAT
Q3 2012
Historic expansion of non-food big boxes and impressive development plans
80
70
60
Total units trading
50
40
30
20
10
0
1992 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Leroy Merlin OBI Castorama Media Markt
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 17
19. SHOPPING CENTERS MARKETBEAT
Q3 2012
Europe 2011, sq.m of quality retail per ‘000 inhabitant
Norway
Sweden
Luxembourg
Estonia
RETAIL FORMATS:
Ireland
Slovenia
Netherlands 1. SHOPPING CENTER
Finland
Austria
Moscow
Denmark
2. STREET RETAIL
3. DEPARTMENT STORE
Lithuania
Latvia
Portugal
United Kingdom
France
EU-27 Average 4. RETAIL OUTLET – to come soon
Switzerland
Croatia
Spain
Italy
5. RETAIL PARK – not in Russia yet
Poland
Slovakia
Czech Rep.
6. RETAIL WAREHOUSE – not in
Malta
Germany
Russia yet
Hungary
Romania
Belgium
Russia
Turkey
Bulgaria
Moscow region
Ukraine
Greece
Serbia
Bosnia Herz.
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Source: Cushman&Wakefield Research CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 18
20. SHOPPING CENTERS MARKETBEAT
Q3 2012
Quarterly monitoring
FOOTFALL, Q1 2010=100% VACANCY RATE, %
120%
110%
100%
90%
80%
70%
1.65% 3.05% 1.58% 0.80% 0.95% 1.00% 1.05% 0.97% 0.41% 0.65% 0.80% 0.41%
60%
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2009 2010 2011 2012 2009 2010 2011 2012
– Share of "successful shoppers" in visitors is 43.9% (Q3 2012) and at the highest level since Q4 2009
– Footfall in shopping centers is in line with seasonable trend
– Vacancy rate in established shopping malls with stabilized catchment area is extremely low
* Cushman&Wakefield Research quarterly monitoring of 9 quality shopping centers (total GLA - 0.5 mn sq m).
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 19
These shopping centers have been opened more than one year ago and have the clear catchment area.
21. SHOPPING CENTERS – RUSSIA* MARKETBEAT
Q3 2012
QUALITY RETAIL SPACE UNDER CONSTRUCTION PIPELINE OF QUALITY SHOPPING CENTERS,
(IN SHOPPING CENTERS), ‘000 SQ M GLA 50,000+, 2012
1912 City Property Name Retail GLA, sq.m Delivery
1558
Volgograd KomsoMall (Slava) 68,000 Q1
Krasnodar Krasnaya Plozhad 50,000 Q1
1143 1149 1189
St. Petersburg RIO 52,500 Q2
Krasnodar Oz Mall 169,000 Q2
Ryazan Premier 50,000 Q2
866 Nizhnyi Novgorod Sedmoe Nebo 60,800 Q3
Ekaterinburg Prizma 70,400 Q4
Nizhnyi Novgorod (E
RIO k ) 68,000 Q4
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
(forecast) Surgut Surgut City Mall 69,600 Q4
Announced developers plans CW Forecast New construction Sochi Moremall 80,000 Q4
Ekaterinburg Raduga Park 56,000 Q4
Belgorod Megagreen 53,000 Q4
– There are 355 quality shopping malls in Russia (excluding Moscow and Moscow
Surgut Aura 65,000 Q4
agglomeration) total GLA 9 ,962, 317 sq m Total GLA of shopping centers > 50,000 sq 912,300
Total GLA 1,918,464
– 17 new quality shopping malls were delivered in Q1-Q3 2012
* Without Moscow and Moscow region Source: Cushman&Wakefield Research CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 20
22. SHOPPING CENTERS – MOSCOW AND MOSCOW REGION MARKETBEAT
Q3 2012
Construction of shopping centers in Moscow is down
QUALITY RETIAL SPACE UNDER CONSTRUCTION PIPELINE OF QUALITY SHOPPING CENTERS *, 2012
(IN SHOPPING CENTERS), ‘000 SQ M Property Name Retail GLA, sq.m Delivery
Moscow
599 Hotel Moskva 21,000 Q1
515 Sombrero 6,000 Q2
443 Outlet Village Belaya
412 24,000 Q3
Dacha
Sviblovo (former Friz) 15,000 Q3
266
Otrada (2 phase) 28,000 Q4
Kaleidoskop 41,000 Q4
Favorit 21,900 Q4
Moskvorechye 19,800 Q4
114 Parus 17,280 Q4
Perovo 5,000 Q4
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total GLA 198,980
(forecast)
Moscow Region
Domodedovo Torgovy Kvartal 22,500 Q1
Announced developers plans CW Forecast New construction
Krasnogorsk Solnechniy Ray 8,000 Q3
Krasnogorsk June 17,500 Q3
Mytischi June 75,000 Q4
– There are 115 quality shopping malls in Moscow, total GLA 3,449 ,610 SQM Mytischi Krasny Kit (2 phase) 35,000 Q4
Korolev SC on Kosmonavtov 22,500 Q4
– 6 new quality shopping malls and the first Russia outlet were delivered in Q1-Q3 2012 Zelenograd Panfilovskiy 13,300 Q4
Lytkarino Vesna 12,500 Q4
Odintsovo Westore 7,600 Q4
– Less new projects are announced and pipeline is drying out Total GLA 213,900
* Outlets are included, retail part of mix-use complexes are not included
Source: Cushman&Wakefield Research CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 21
23. SHOPPING CENTERS : RENTAL RATES MARKETBEAT
Q3 2012
Moscow rental rates are stable
QUALITY SHOPPING CENTERS RETAIL GALLERY
Q3 2012 prime retail indicator** is
Gross leasable area,sq m
Business type
Retail Gallery Mini Anchors 3,800 USD
<100 100 - 300 300 - 800 800 - 1,500 per sq.m per annum, base rate
Kiosks $2,000
Cellphones $3,500
Drugstore $1,200-$1,500
Banks $1,200-$1,500
Restaurant $1,200 $600-$1000
Textiles $1,200 $800
Books $1,000 $500-$600 $400 $300
Clothing and Footwear $1,200 $800 $600 $400
White and Brown $500
Supermarket $750
Source: Cushman&Wakefield Research CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 22
24. RETAIL STREETS : RENTAL RATES MARKETBEAT
Q3 2012
Moscow rental rates are stable
STREET USD/sq. m/annum 2012 trend
1st Tverskaya Yamskaya $1,500 - $2 ,500 up
Arbat $1,500 - $2,500 up
Garden Ring $1,000 - $2,500 stable
Kutuzovsky Prospekt $1,000 - $2,500 stable
Kuznetsky Most $2,000 - $2,500 stable
Leningradsky Prospekt $1,000 - $2,000 stable
Leninsky prospect $1,000 - $2,000 stable
Prospect Mira $1,200 - $2,000 stable
Novy Arbat $1,500 - $2,500 up
Petrovka $3,000 - $4,000 up
Pyatnitskaya $1,500 - $2,000 stable
Tverskaya $3,500 - $4,500 up
Stoleshnikov per. $3,500 - $4,500 up
Source: Cushman&Wakefield Research CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 23
25. LEASE TERMS MARKETBEAT
Q3 2012
Behind the rent
ITEM COMMENT
Lease Terms Standard lease terms are between 3-5 years with some up to 10 -15 for anchors. Break
options are not common in the market.
Rental Payment Rents are typically payable monthly in advance.Turnover / percentage rents are increasingly
seen in shopping centres. Rental rates are generally calculated in USD, Euro or commercial
units are used. In less quality shopping centres rental rates are calculated in RUR.
Rent Deposit The rent deposit required in quality shopping centres is typically between 1 – 3 months rent
equitant.
Indexation Annual indexation is typical between 3-10% or at a level of USD / EU CPI. The practice of
premium / key money payments is seldom seen in Russia. Rent reviews are rare on the
market.
Service Charges Service charge is payable by tenants at either an “open book” basis or more common as a
fixed cost. Utilities payments are charged on consumption. Building insurance is normally
charged back to tenant via service charge.
Other costs VAT 18% Local property taxes are not paid separately, they are generally included in the
service charges.
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 24
27. MOSCOW OFFICE INDICATORS MARKETBEAT
Q3 2012
New construction, Take up and Vacancy rate
High demand
'000 sq m –450,000 sq m (take up)
2,200 14%
2,000
12%
Fair net absorption
1,800
1,600 10% –31.8 % from take-up
1,400
1,200 8% Low new construction
1,000 6%
800
–176,500 sq m
600 4%
400
Decreasing Vacancy
2%
200
–11.3%
0 0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 F2012 F2013 F2014 F2015
Stable Rental Rates
New construction (2012: Q1-Q3) New construction Forecast (2012: Q4)
Take-up (2012: Q1-Q3) Take-up Forecast (2012: Q4) –Prime $1,200
Vacancy rate
–Class A $790
–Class B $450
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 26
28. SUPPLY MARKETBEAT
Q3 2012
Shortage in Downtown, excessive in outskirts
OFFICE STOCK AND VACANCY OFFICE STOCK AND VACANCY
mn sq m
Class B Class A 15 25%
vacant occupied
1.06 2.06 12 20%
Class A
vacant
9 15%
0.41
6 10%
3 5%
0 0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 F2013 F2014 F2015
Class B
Stock, Class B, (2012: Q1-Q3) Stock, Class A, (2012: Q1-Q3)
occupied
9.46 Vacancy rate, Class A Vacancy rate, Class B
• The volume of space under construction is growing. There is 3.24 mn sq m of quality office space under
construction, which is 0.64 mn sq m more than at the beginning of the year.
• Most new constructions of class A are concentrated in the Central business district, with most class B in the
CBD and Other Trading Areas (OTA).
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 27
29. AVAILABILITY MARKETBEAT
Q3 2012
High vacancy but limited number of options
VACANCY RATE AND AVAILABLE SPACE BY BUSINESS AREAS, Q3 2012
133 140
12.6% Downtown 6.0%
22.4% 239 343
Central 9.4%
`
`
10.6% 39 576
OTA 12.8%
Class A Class B
• The average vacancy rate is stable (and has contracted from 11.6% in Q2 down to 11.3% in Q3).
• Some submarkets are experiencing extremely low availability, for example in the Belorussky and
Frunzensky submarkets the vacancy rate is less than 5%, which indicates a strong deficit of quality space in
these areas.
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 28
30. DEMAND MARKETBEAT
Q3 2012
High turnover, low net absorption
TAKE-UP (’000 SQ M)
'000 sq m
86% 79% 84%
2,600 83% 86% 90%
• Office take up levels were positive over the
80% 75%
2,400
80%
2,200
2,000 70% quarter with over 450,000 sq.m transacted.
1,800
1,600
60% • Occupier demand is steady as tenants look to
1,400 50% consolidate or renegotiate leases.
1,200 40%
1,000
30%
• This year the Moscow office market may
800
600 20%
overcome the historic high of 2 mn sq m in
400
10%
office transactions.
200
0 0% • At the same time, Net Absorption is lower
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 F2012 F2013 F2014 F2015
than in previous years and is about 31,1% of
Forecast Class B (B+ and B-) Class B (B+ and B-)
Forecast Class A Class A
Gross Absorption (or take-up).
Share of lease deals
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 29
31. NET ABSORPTION AND TAKE UP MARKETBEAT
Q3 2012
In balance
ABSORPTION VS. TAKE-UP ABSORPTION VS. NEW CONSTRUCTION
1.97
1.75 1.81 2.17
1.51 1.48
1.35 1.81
1.27
1.49
1.39
1.35
0.74 0.74 0.76
0.63 0.88
0.74 0.76
0.46 0.63 0.65
0.46
0.45
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q 1-3 2012
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q 1-3 2012
Take-up Absorption
New construction Absorption
• Originally Take up was close to net absorption, because companies were Net absorption—represents the change in the occupied stock within a
moving to newly constructed buildings from old stock market during the period.
Calculation: Net Absorption =X-Y
• In 2008 Net absorption was higher than Take up because of high number of Where:
pre-lease contracts in 2007. As the result of massive preleases, fully let X = Current stock – current vacancy
buildings were delivered to the market Y = Previous stock (same quarter, previous year) – previous
• Low net absorption and high take up indicates maturity of Moscow market vacancy (same quarter, previous year)
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 30
32. MOSCOW OFFICE MARKET NET ABSORPTION MARKETBEAT
Q3 2012
Interactive chart
Flash player is required for
interactive content
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 31
33. RENTAL RATES MARKETBEAT
Q3 2012
Stability is the key
RENTAL RATES BY CLASSES
• High activity by tenants has had little impact on rents,
$1,090.0
which remain flat for all classes and all submarkets. In
the vast majority of office buildings in Moscow, asking
$938.4 rents are stable.
$790.0 • Nevertheless, there are positive dynamics in Class A
$710.0
$717.4
$640.0 $760.0 $800.0
$850.0 average rental rates. In Q3 class A average rents have
$810.0 $743.0 $750.0 grown from USD 750 to USD 790 due to the
$627.9 $450.0 $600.0
respectively high proportion of transactions in the
$521.4 $510.0 $490.0
$550.0 Central area (46% in Q3 compared with a traditional
$420.0 $437.0 $450.0 30%). The higher share of more expensive deals
pushed average rents up.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 F2012 F2013 F2014 F2015 • Tenants’ incentives are as low as possible, discounts
Class A Class B (B+ and B-) from asking rental rates are not often granted or are
Class A Q3 Class A Q3 low (about 5% on average).
• We expect stable rents until the end of this year and
• Prime $1,200 possibly well into 2013.
• Class A $ 790
• Class B $ 450
* Rental rates – base asking rates for deals closed within the period per sq m per annum, triple net CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 32
34. MARKETBEAT
Q3 2012
Rental rates by
submarket
Flash player required for interactive content
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 33
36. MOSCOW SUPPLY MARKETBEAT
Q3 2012
New construction of quality warehouses (A and B classes)
1,400
2012
1,200 – New construction (Q1-Q3 2012)
1,000
531,000 sq. m
– Total pipeline 840,000 sq. m
'000 sq m
800
600
2013
400
– Total pipeline 1.700,000 sq m
200
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F
New construction Planned
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 35
40. DEMAND STRUCTURE MARKETBEAT
Q3 2012
Market share and deal size
STRUCTURE OF DEMAND AVERAGE DEAL SIZE
20
Producer Retailer
24% 40% 16
12
'000 sq m
Other 8
2%
4
Logistic
17%
14.83 10.29 8.35 10.66 18.63
0
Distributor
17% Distributor Logistic Other Producer Retailer
• During Q1-Q3 2012 the demand was generated by retail and industrial companies.
• The requests for the biggest rentable areas came from retail (18,000 sq m in average) and
industrial(11,000 sq m)companies.
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 39
41. DEMAND MARKETBEAT
Q3 2012
Take-up
600
• Q3 2012 was the record-
500 breaker in Moscow region
since Q1 2008.
400
'000 SQ M
300
• In the total volume of
200
transactions completed in Q3
100
2012 the share of warehouse
sales comprises 30%.
0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012
Moscow Regions
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 40
42. REGIONS MARKETBEAT
Q3 2012
Regional rental rates, USD per sq.m.
$140
Avg base rental
Avg leased area,
CITY rates,
sq m
$120 USD / annum
Moscow 135-140 10,000-15,000
$100 St. Petersburg 120-130 2,000-10,000
Ekaterinburg 110-115 5,000-10,000
$80 Nizhnyi Novgorod 110-120 3,000-5,000
Samara 110-115 3,000-5,000
$60 Kazan 90-100 3,000-5,000
Rostov-On-Don 115-120 3,000-5,000
$40 Krasnodar 110-120 3,000-5,000
Novosibirsk 110-115 2,000-5,000
$20 Ufa 90-100 3,000-5,000
$0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F
St. Petersburg Ekaterinburg Rostov-On-Don
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 41
43. MARKETBEAT
Q3 2012
LAND MARKET
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 42
44. MOSCOW REGION MARKETBEAT
Q3 2012
Stable, growing market
MOSCOW REGION AVERAGE INDUSTRIAL PRICE FOR INDUSTRIAL LAND IN
LAND PRICE, mn USD/ha MOSCOW REGION by direction
PRICE, mn
1.94 ROAD
USD / ha
1.87
1.4 Dmitrovskoe shosse A104 0.5-1.5
1.4 Yaroslavskoe shosse M8 0.5 - 1.5
1.07 1.38 Gorkovskoe shosse M7 0.5 - 1.2
Novoryazanskoe shosse M5 0.5-1.2
Kashirskoe shosse M4 0.6 - 1.5
Simferopolskoe shosse M2 0.8 - 1
Kaluzhskoeshosse shosse A101 1-1.5
Kievskoe shosse M3 1-2
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Minskoe shosse M1 1-1.5
Novorizhskoe shosse M9 2-4
Leningradskoe shosse M10 1.5-2.5
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 43
45. MOSCOW REGION MARKETBEAT
Q3 2012
Land prices
DISTANCE PRICE, mn
FROM MKAD USD / ha
MKAD 2.5 - 3
5 km 1 – 1.5
15 km 0.6 - 0.8
30 km 0.4 - 0.6
50 km 0.3 - 0.5
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 44
46. MARKETBEAT
Q3 2012
CAPITAL MARKETS
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 45
47. COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS MARKETBEAT
Q3 2012
Global Markets
EUROPEAN MARKET WORLDWIDE MARKET
NYC Metro 35,795
London Metro 32,500
London Metro 32,500
Paris 18,694 Tokyo 24,610
Moscow 8,625 Hong Kong 20,188
Paris 18,694
Stockholm 6,796
LA Metro 18,298
Berlin-Brandenburg 5,650
Shanghai 17,607
Rhine-Ruhr 4,691 SF Metro 17,513
Frankfurt/Rhine-Main 3,945 DC Metro 17,409
Singapore 16,907
Munich 3,785
Beijing 13,454
Amsterdam/Randstad 3,733 Chongqing 10,781
South Germany 2,925 Chicago 10,196
Moscow 8,625
Oslo 2,871
Seoul 8,595
Saint Petersburg 2,686
Boston 8,020
Hamburg 2,495 Shenyang 7,931
Warsaw 2,449 Tianjin 7,667
Dallas 7,626
Copenhagen 2,077
Wuhan 7,620
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000
$ mn
Moscow is the 3rd investment market in Europe and 14th market worldwide (2 places up compared to 2011 eoy).
Now there are 2 Russian cities in Top 15 of European investment markets. St. Petersburg became reliable investment location.
Data of Real Capital Analytics based on 12 past month basis CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 46
48. RUSSIAN INVESTMENT MARKET MARKETBEAT
Q3 2012
Russian Investments split
By sector
8,000 By origin
7,547.4
7,200
7,000 Foreign investors
35%
Domestic investors
5,797.9 39%
6,000 5,524.4
5,354 61% 2012 forecast
65%
5,000 4,559.8
mn USD
3,994
4,000
3,000 By geography
2,256 2%
2,000 1,637.3 18%
1% Moscow
21%
St. Petersburg
1,000 491.5 Regions
78%
0
2012 forecast
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 80%
Office Retail Industrial Other Forecast
• We increased our forecast for 2012 investments to US$ 7.2 bn
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 47
49. INVESTMENT MARKET IN NUMBERS MARKETBEAT
Q3 2012
2012 investments breakdown in $mn
$5,524 bn OF TOTAL YEAR-TO-DATE INVESTMENTS
MOSCOW $4,308.8 Offices $1,672.30 23%
Offices
39% Shopping Centers
Shopping Centers $1,109
ST. PETERSBURG $1,140.7 W&I $513.60 12% W&I
Hospitality and
Hospitality and other $1,014 other
REGIONS $74.9 26%
5%
Offices - Offices
Shopping Centers
Moscow is the core market for Office Shopping Centers $1,084.70
and W&I segments W&I -
W&I
Hospitality and
Hospitality and other $56 95% other
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 48