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Global Trade Flow Index Q2 2010

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The Capgemini Consulting Global Trade Flow Index tracks trade by quarter, based on the latest available official data from national agencies.

The Index, which is published every three months, assesses the developments in global trade and the relative position of the 23 countries playing the biggest role in the global trade arena.

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Global Trade Flow Index Q2 2010

  1. 1. Supported by:Global Trade Flow IndexQ2 - 2010October 2010
  2. 2. AGENDA• Summary• Index• Preview Window for Q3‟10• Appendix © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 2
  3. 3. Global trade growth in Q2 2010 has slowed down and rose by 3.6% q-o-qfollowing a cautious optimism, while Asia-Pacific and Latin America continueto rise on trade growth KEY DEVELOPMENTS TOTAL TRADE- TOP 23 COUNTRIES (BILLION USD) Despite the slowing of trade recovery momentum, trade volumes continued to grow in Q2 2010, characterized by easing of the crisis-induced 2.000 2027 2016 13,0 credit crunch and the rebuilding of inventories in 1926 several economies 1803 1784 1698 1721 1631 1621 1638 8,0 Growth in the Eurozone picked up in Q2 2010 1.600 1506 with the recovery in construction output and positive growth in its domestic consumption, however its trade recovery faced a downside risk 1356 1391 3,0 as export volumes declined slightly in all major European regions 1.200 -2,0 USA total trade increased majorly on account of 6.2% q-o-q rise in its imports with increase in both -7,0 oil and non-oil imports, further widening the trade 800 deficit in Q2 2010 -12,0 China‟s accelerating export growth rate of 23% over Q1 2010 has continued to be a major 400 component supporting its economic growth, -17,0 outpacing US Brazil‟s exports surged 7% q-o-q in Q2 2010 on 0 -22,0 account of steady growth in the agriculture Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 industry and services sector, while Mexico Growth (%) witnessed a 5.3% q-o-q growth in its exports of goods because of the big jump in sale of Volume (billion USD) automotive products to USSources : Capgemini Analysis, Tradingeconomics.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010. © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 3
  4. 4. AGENDA• Summary• Index• Preview Window for Q3‟10• Appendix © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 4
  5. 5. China replaced US at No.1 position, backed by its own domestic consumptionand a huge jump in industrial production along with accelerating exports Trade related parameters Market related parameters Trade Volume Domestic RANK RANK Q-o-Q Growth Foreign Market Global Trade Country Score Market Score Q2-2010 Q1-2010 Score (B) Score (C) Index Score* (A) (D) China 1 2 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 16.00 United States 13.27 2 1 3.77 3.53 3.36 3.66 Germany 3 3 2.62 3.33 3.56 3.69 9.24 Japan 4 4 1.68 3.32 3.43 3.60 5.78 France 5 5 1.26 3.25 3.37 3.67 4.33 Netherlands 6 6 1.24 3.35 3.38 3.73 4.32 South Korea 7 9 1.05 3.57 3.51 3.73 3.80 United 8 7 1.07 3.35 3.32 3.70 3.68 Kingdom Italy 9 8 1.04 3.35 3.45 3.65 3.62 Canada 10 11 0.92 3.53 3.29 3.67 3.21 Belgium 11 10 0.90 3.25 3.39 3.63 3.09 Mexico 12 14 0.70 3.56 3.43 3.71 2.50 Russian 13 12 0.72 3.22 3.44 3.45 2.43 Federation Note : * Global Trade Index Score = A x (average of (B,C,D)) © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 5
  6. 6. Brazil’s decelerating trade growth and India’s poor performance over the lastquarter led to their fall in their global ranking in Q2 2010 Trade related parameters Market related parameters Domestic RANK RANK Trade Volume Q-o-Q Growth Foreign Market Global Trade Country Market Score Q2-2010 Q1-2010 Score (A) Score (B) Score (C) Index Score* (D) India 14 13 0.65 3.40 3.21 3.43 2.19 Spain 15 15 0.61 3.16 3.30 3.66 2.07 Australia 16 17 0.48 3.76 3.92 3.64 1.81 Brazil 17 16 0.45 3.62 3.55 3.73 1.62 Poland 18 19 0.41 3.66 3.45 3.65 1.45 Switzerland 19 18 0.39 3.31 3.33 3.69 1.35 Sweden 20 20 0.35 3.47 3.47 3.67 1.23 Austria 21 21 0.34 3.26 3.45 3.65 1.16 Czech 22 22 0.28 3.25 3.36 3.69 0.95 Republic Norway 23 23 0.24 3.21 3.27 3.70 0.81 Note : * Global Trade Index Score = A x (average of (B,C,D)) © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 6
  7. 7. Amongst Asian economies, China excelled with its accelerating exports; while Germany emerged as the growth engine of the eurozone in Q2 2010 1st Quarter- 2010 2nd Quarter- 2010 China witnessed an accelerating 23%X - Foreign Market Growth (%) 15,0 X - Foreign Market Growth (%) 15,0 q-o-q growth in foreign market trade,Y - Domestic Market Growth (%) Y - Domestic Market Growth (%) constituting 32% of its GDP; backed byBubble – GDP Q1 2010 Bubble – GDP Q2 2010 governments‟ liberalization initiatives 10,0 10,0 and investments in infrastructure 5,0 Germany 5,0 China India Germany 0,0 0,0 Japan Australia-15,0 -10,0 -5,0 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 -15,0 -10,0 -5,0 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 -5,0 US -5,0 US Australia India Germany’s GDP increased by 2.2% Russia q-o-q in Q2 2010; supported by growth in -10,0 India’s economy -10,0 exports (benefiting from the Asian slumped as both export demand and the depreciation of the and import growth -15,0 euro) and Investments (rise in -15,0 construction spending and an increase in contracted and despite stimulus packages like investment in machinery & equipments) -20,0 reduction in excise -20,0 duties and service tax, its domestic -25,0 consumption dropped -25,0 Australia’s economy grew by 3.5% and a by 5% q-o-q in Q2 2010 20% rise in exports were spurred by soaring exports of iron ore and coals -30,0 -30,0 alongside the robust trade linkages with China Asia -35,0 -35,0 * As per the revised Q1 2010 figures released by OECD * As per the Q2 2010 figures released by OECD Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 2009, Tradingeconomics.com, Standardandpoors.com, Economic-research.bnpparibas.com. © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 7
  8. 8. AGENDA• Summary• Index• Preview Window for Q3’10• Appendix © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 8
  9. 9. While Global Trade is slowly mending and is expected to grow in the comingquarter, the risk of a constrained growth remains as governments continuewithdrawal of stimulus TOTAL TRADE (Q2 2010) - TOP 23 COUNTRIES (USD Bn) RISKS TO WATCH OUT FOR 13,0 20162.000 8,0  Is growth going to be limited with 1784 1721 growing talks on monetary and fiscal 1621 1638 stimulus withdrawals?1.600 1506 3,0 1356 1391  With capacity utilization continuing to -2,0 increase and inventory restocking1.200 reaching a comfortable level in several economies, is global trade going to -7,0 weaken? 800 -12,0  With high unemployment, a weak euro 400 and the possibility of international -17,0 frictions and protectionist pressures, are trade imbalances in the European region going to rise? 0 -22,0 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10E Growth (%) Volume (billion USD) If monetary and fiscal stimulus are taken away too soon, when the recovery in trade is still tentative - there is a risk of falling back into recession and deflation.Note: Q3 „10 growth estimation is based on trade flow data for July 2010; the actual growth rate might vary depending on total trade figures for the entire quarter.Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 2010, Trading Economics, 2010. © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 9
  10. 10. AGENDA• Summary• Index• Preview Window for Q3‟10• Appendix © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 10
  11. 11. AGENDA• Summary• Index• Preview Window for Q3‟10• Appendix • Country Profiles • The West-to-East Switch: BRIC • Methodology & Base Data Files © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 11
  12. 12. Country profile – China General information Key Trade-related Trends/Facts Description Values China‟s low-cost manufacturing capabilities work well especially for its import and export trade; the country is also well connected GDP 1251.1 Billions USD to international markets through its vast port facilities GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 10.94% Chinese accelerated export growth rate constituted a major component supporting Chinas rapid economic growth of 10.9% Population 133.86 Crore q-o-q in Q2 2010 GDP per Capita (2008) 6000 USD China witnessed a 19% growth in total trade in Q2 2010 over the previous quarter, backed by governments‟ liberalization initiatives RANK 1 and investments in infrastructure Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market 300 4012,000,000 40 3010,000,000 30 250 15 20 20 200 10 8,000,000 10 150 0 0 6,000,000 0 -10 4,000,000 -10 100 -20 -15 -20 50 -30 2,000,000 -30 -40 0 -40 0 -30 Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2-2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- 008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 Growth(%) Growth(%) Growth Domestic market (%) Value (billions Yuan) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%)Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Tradingeconomics.com. © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 12
  13. 13. Country profile – United States General information Key Trade-related Trends/Facts Description Values One of the biggest economies in the world, the US has good quality infrastructure, quality transport infrastructure and efficient GDP 3643.75 Billions USD custom administration GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 0.89 % The US economic growth slowed in Q2 with less than 1% GDP growth over Q1, as companies invested heavily in equipment Population 30.72 Crore from abroad and the pace of consumer spending eased, raising concerns about the recovery in the rest of 2010 GDP per Capita (2008) 35,645 USD Though International trade increased in volume, its growth has RANK 2 slowed down and imports continue to outpace exports leading to sustained trade deficits Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market 103,700,000 1.5 350 300 20 53,650,000 1.0 250 03,600,000 0.5 5 2003,550,000 0.0 -5 1503,500,000 -0.5 100 -10 -103,450,000 -1.0 50 -15 0 -253,400,000 -1.5 Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3-2 Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4-2 Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- 2008 2008 008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 Growth(%) Growth(%) Growth Domestic market (%) Value (billions USD) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%)Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Reuters.com, Market-melange.com, BEA.gov. © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 13
  14. 14. Country profile – Germany General information Key Trade-related Trends/Facts Description Values Germany‟s GDP increased by 2.2% q-o-q in Q2 2010; GDP 794.14 Billions USD supported by growth in exports and because of an increase in investment in machinery and equipment & rise in construction GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 2.26 % spending Population 8.23 Crore Germany is the worlds second-biggest exporter after China and in Q2 2010, its export of goods & services grew by 9.4% GDP per Capita (2008) 35400 USD over previous quarter, benefiting from the Asian demand and the depreciation of the euro RANK 3 Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market630,000 3 300 15620,000 2 250 10 15610,000 1 200 5 0 0 0600,000 150 -1 -5590,000 -2 100 -15 -10580,000 -3 50 -15570,000 -4 0 -30 Q2-2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 Growth(%) Growth(%) Growth Domestic market (%) Value (billions Euro) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 2010, Chinapost.com, Economic-research.bnpparibas.com. © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 14
  15. 15. Country profile – Japan General information Key Trade-related Trends/Facts Description Values Japan‟s economy is highly efficient and competitive in areas GDP 1300.47 Billions USD linked to international trade, but productivity is far lower in protected areas such as agriculture, distribution, and services. GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) -0.63 % In Q2, Japan‟s economy has reduced by 0.63% due to deflation Population 12.71 Crore and a rise in the yen With the reduction in its exports, its total trade also come down GDP per Capita (2008) 34000 USD by 1% q-o-q thus threatening an expected export-reliant recovery RANK 4 Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market 140 20128,000,000 2 120 15 10126,000,000 1124,000,000 100 0122,000,000 0 0 80 -10120,000,000 -1 60 -20118,000,000 -2 -15 40116,000,000 -30 -3 20114,000,000 -40112,000,000 -4 0 -30 Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4-2 Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 Growth(%) Growth(%) Growth Domestic market (%) Value (billions Yen) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%)Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Reuters.com, News.bbc.co.uk ,”Japan‟s economy”, 2010. © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 15
  16. 16. Country profile – France General information Key Trade-related Trends/Facts Description Values An increase in consumer spending, a rise in inventories and a GDP 619.28 Billions USD rebound in business investment helped Eurozones second largest economy to expand by 1% q-o-q in Q2 2010 GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 0.99 % With revival of private sector investment, French domestic Population 6.41 Crore demand showed strength in Q2 although its net trade went GDP per Capita (2008) 33200 USD down due to an increase in energy imports and a drop in car exports RANK 5 Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market 140 10495,000 2 120 15 5490,000 1 100485,000 1 0 0 80480,000 0 60 -5475,000 -1 40 -15 -10470,000 -1 20 -15465,000 -2 0 -30 Q2-2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 Growth(%) Growth(%) Growth Domestic market (%) Value (billions Euro) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Economic-research.credit-agricole.com, XE.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010. © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 16
  17. 17. Country profile – The Netherlands General information Key Trade-related Trends/Facts Description Values The Netherlands which depends heavily on foreign trade owns an outstanding transport Infrastructure, with Rotterdam being one of GDP 189.08 Billions USD the world‟s best seaports, enhancing the country‟s connectivity to rest of the world GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.98 % The Dutch economy grew strongly in the second quarter of 2010 Population 1.67 Crore mainly through increased exports, though the q-o-q growth of export of goods & services was less as compared to Q1 2010 GDP per Capita (2008) 40400 USD Growth in consumption and investment showed an increase over RANK 6 the previous quarter Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market152,000 3 120 10150,000 2 15 100 5148,000 1 80146,000 0 0 60 0144,000 -1142,000 -2 40 -15 -5140,000 -3 20 -10138,000 -4 0 -30 Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1-2 Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-2 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 010 2008 2008 2008 009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 Growth(%) Growth(%) Growth Domestic market (%) Value (billions Euro) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%)Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Nfia.co.uk, XE.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010. © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 17
  18. 18. Country profile – South Korea General information Key Trade-related Trends/Facts Description Values GDP 248.94 Billions USD Korean economy grew 2% q-o-q during the second quarter of 2010 due to robust investments, fiscal stimulus and the export GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 2.10 % boost from inventory restocking 4.85 Crore Even when the domestic market growth slowed down, facility Population investment continue to improve and foreign market grew by GDP per Capita (2008) 27600 USD approximately 8% making it the worlds ninth-largest exporter RANK 7 Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market300,000,000 6 100 15290,000,000 15 4 80 10280,000,000270,000,000 2 60 5 0260,000,000 0 40 0250,000,000 -15 -2 20 -5240,000,000230,000,000 -4 0 -30 -10 Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2-20Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 08 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 Growth(%) Growth(%) Growth Domestic market (%) Value (billions Won) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%)Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Oecdobserver.org, “Korea‟s economy 2010”, Roubini.com, XE.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010. © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 18
  19. 19. Country profile – United Kingdom General information Key Trade-related Trends/Facts Description Values 465.62 Billions USD The UK economy continued to expand over the second quarter GDP of 2010 as GDP rose by 1.7%; the increase in output was GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.74 % mainly due to increases in business services and Finance and construction sector Population 6.11 Crore With hardly any change in its total trade, UK „s trade deficit GDP per Capita (2008) 46900 USD remained quite high RANK 8 Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market370,000 3 120 10365,000 2 15 100 5360,000 1355,000 80 0 0 60 0350,000 -1345,000 40 -2 -15 -5340,000335,000 -3 20 -10330,000 -4 0 -30 Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1-2 Q2- 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 Growth(%) Growth(%) Growth Domestic market (%) Value (billions GBP) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%)Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Financemarkets.co.uk , Euronews.net, Stats.oecd.org, 2010. © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 19
  20. 20. Country profile – Italy General information Key Trade-related Trends/Facts Description Values Italy‟s GDP rose by 1.1% in Q2 2010, mainly driven by exports, GDP 493.17 Billions USD inventories and investment, especially in machinery, while domestic demand remained subdued GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.10 % Italy has strong business clusters, producing goods high in Population 5.81 Crore value chain using latest processes & technology, but the 31300 USD structural weaknesses in the economy increases business costs GDP per Capita (2008) and undermines investor confidence, making the strength of RANK 9 recovery in 2010 a little uncertain Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market400,000 2 120 30 10395,000 100 5 1390,000 15 80 0385,000 0 60 0380,000 -5 -1375,000 40 -15 -10 -2 20370,000 -15365,000 -3 0 -30 Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3-2 Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- 2008 008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 Growth(%) Growth(%) Growth Domestic market (%) Value (billions Euro) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%)Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Alibaba.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010. © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 20
  21. 21. Country profile – Canada General information Key Trade-related Trends/Facts Description Values Canada‟s economy growth slowed as GDP grew by just 0.7% due to weaker spending in the retail and wholesale sectors and GDP 391.61 Billions USD a downturn in the housing market GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 0.71 % Canada has high availability & quality of transport infrastructure as well as highly efficient markets, however it is highly Population 3.35 Crore dependent on the US as a market, with 3/4th of its exports to US GDP per Capita (2008) 39100 USD Canadian exports to US fell in Q2 and its trade deficit widened RANK 10 with increase in its import of petroleum and automobiles Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market420,000 3 100 15 10410,000 2 10 5 80 1 5 0400,000 0 0 60 -5 -5390,000 -1 -2 40 -10 -10380,000 -3 -15 -15370,000 20 -4 -20 -20360,000 -5 0 -25 Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-201 Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 0 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 Growth(%) Growth(%) Growth Domestic market (%) Value (billions Canadian Dollar) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%)Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Tradingeconomics.com, Roubini.com. © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 21
  22. 22. Country profile – Belgium General information Key Trade-related Trends/Facts Description Values Belgiums economy resumed growth in the second quarter GDP 111.38 Billions USD with boost from increase in households private consumption expenditure GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.25 % Exports equal around two thirds of its GDP and 80% of Belgiums Population 1.04 Crore trade is with fellow EU member states GDP per Capita (2008) 37400 USD With decrease in both Export and Import of goods, its total trade RANK 11 dropped by 3% q-o-q in Q2 2010 Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market88,000 2 100 1087,000 15 1 80 586,00085,000 0 60 0 084,000 -1 40 -583,000 -15 -2 20 -1082,00081,000 -3 0 -30 -15 Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1-2 Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- 2008 2008 2008 009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 Growth(%) Growth(%) Growth Domestic market (%) Value (billions Euro) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%)Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Euromonitor.com, Tradingeconomics.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010 . © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 22
  23. 23. Country profile – Mexico General information Key Trade-related Trends/Facts Description Values Mexico has an export-oriented economy, more than 90% of GDP 256.46 Billions USD Mexican trade is under free trade agreements (FTAs) with more than 40 countries GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 2.18 % Mexico‟s economy rose by 2.18% due to an increase in services and a climb in the manufacturing and agricultural sector Population 11.12 Crore Mexico‟s domestic and foreign market showed upward trend in GDP per Capita (2008) 14200 USD comparison with its Q1 2010 results Its exports of goods rose to 5.3% because of a big jump in its RANK 12 sales of automotive products to the United States Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market3,300,000 4 60 30 153,200,000 50 10 2 153,100,000 40 53,000,000 0 30 0 02,900,000 20 -2 -15 -52,800,000 10 -102,700,000 -4 0 -30 Q2- Q3- Q4-2 Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3-2 Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 Growth(%) Growth(%) Growth Domestic market (%) Value (billions Peso) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Businessweek.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010. © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 23
  24. 24. Country profile – Russian Federation General information Key Trade-related Trends/Facts Description Values Russian GDP reduced by a sharper 7% in the second quarter of GDP 334.62 Billions USD 2010 due to waning of crisis stimulus spending and continuing GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) -7.73 % low demand Russia‟s total trade volume reduced by 4% due to major Population 14 Crore reduction in its export of goods, hit by a slump in world demand, weaker prices for its oil and commodity exports GDP per Capita (2008) 16100 USD RANK 13 Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market11,500,000 10 80 20 2011,000,000 5 10 10 6010,500,000 0 0 010,000,000 40 -10 -10 -5 9,500,000 -20 20 -20 9,000,000 -10 -30 -30 8,500,000 -15 0 -40 Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4-2 Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 Growth(%) Growth(%) Growth Domestic market (%) Value (billions Rouble) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%)Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Reuters.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010. © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 24
  25. 25. Country profile – India General information Key Trade-related Trends/Facts Description Values India‟s GDP fell by 6% q-o-q as both export and import growth GDP 352.85 Billions USD contracted and in spite of strong supply, domestic consumption dropped to 5% in Q2 2010 over the previous GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) -6 % quarter Population 116.61 Crore Although India‟s economy slumped in Q2, on a yearly basis it expanded by 9% with services as the major source of GDP per Capita (2008) 2900 USD economic growth, accounting for more than half of Indias output further lifted by robust activity in manufacturing RANK 14 Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market20,000,000 10 50 30 20 1515,000,000 5 40 15 10 30 510,000,000 0 0 20 0 5,000,000 -5 -15 -5 10 -10 0 -10 0 -30 -15 Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1-2 Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-2 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 010 2008 2008 2008 009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 Growth(%) Growth(%) Growth Domestic market (%) Value (billions Rupees) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%)Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Tradingeconomics.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010. © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 25
  26. 26. Country profile – Spain General information Key Trade-related Trends/Facts Description Values The Spanish economy rose by just 0.16% weighed down by GDP 336.70 Billions USD sluggish private consumption, still falling construction investment and erratic business capital spending as the GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 0.16 % government battles to trim a bloated budget Population 4.05 Crore With EU accounting for 70 percent of Spains exports, the slight GDP per Capita (2008) 34700 USD upturn in eurozone along with a weak euro translates into relatively lesser benefit for spain as compared to other RANK 15 European economies Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market275,000 1 70 30 10 60 5 1270,000 50 15 0 0 40265,000 0 30 -5 -1260,000 20 -15 -10 -1 10 -15255,000 -2 0 -30 Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2-20Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 08 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 Growth(%) Growth(%) Growth Domestic market (%) Value (billions Euro) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Euronews.net, Stats.oecd.org, 2010. © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 26
  27. 27. Country profile – Australia General information Key Trade-related Trends/Facts Description Values Australia has transparent border administration and transport but its regulatory environment promotes intense domestic competition GDP 301.12 Billions USD along with high domestic and foreign market barriers GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 3.64 % The economy looked more balanced with a 3.6% q-o-q growth; Population 2.13 Crore with the private sector increasingly taking over the government stimulus as the engine of growth GDP per Capita (2008) 38100 USD Australia‟s 20% q-o-q growth in export of goods was spurred by RANK 16 soaring exports of iron ore & coal; coupled with robust trade with Asia Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market360,000 5 40 30 30 4 20340,000 3 30 15320,000 2 10 1 20 0 0300,000 0 -1 10 -15 -10280,000 -2 -20260,000 -3 0 -30 Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2-2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- 008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 Growth(%) Growth(%) Growth Domestic market (%) Value (billions Dollar) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%)Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Forexyard.com, World Economic Forum, Stats.oecd.org, 2010. © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 27
  28. 28. Country profile – Brazil General information Key Trade-related Trends/Facts Description Values Brazil economy continue to grow steadily and its GDP grew by GDP 499.79 Billions USD 3.3% due to increase in its export and domestic consumption though cyclical forces and controlled measures to withdraw GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 3.36 % monetary stimulus slowed the rates 19.87 Crore Household spending growth continued to ease and investment Population lost momentum although government consumption rose sharply 10200 USD as spending swelled ahead of elections in next quarter GDP per Capita (2008) Brazil exports surged due to steady growth in the agriculture RANK 17 industry and services sector Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market1,000,000 8 40 30 30 6 20 800,000 10 4 30 15 600,000 2 0 0 20 0 -10 400,000 -2 -20 -4 10 -15 200,000 -30 -6 -40 0 -8 0 -30 Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1-2 Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-2 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 010 2008 2008 2008 009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 Growth(%) Growth(%) Growth Domestic market (%) Value (billions Real) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%)Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Bloomberg.com, Prnewswire.com, XE.com, Tradingeconomics.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010. © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 28

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