1. Buying Options Vs. Selling Options – Which Is Better?
One of the first things many new options traders are taught is
that more than 60% of all options expire worthless. This
statistic, which never had hard research behind it, is usually
meant to instil a sense of caution in new and versed traders.
Understanding this statistic can help you understand the
importance of trade timing on entries and exits. The strategies
of new traders tend to focus on long positions and buying
options. They often fail to capture the profitable opportunities
available using other strategies that involve being an option seller, or short an option, to collect
premium.
Being an option seller is somewhat different than shorting a stock. When shorting a stock, you
expect shares to move lower and only profit if that happens. When selling an option there are a
number of ways to make a profit. You could sell a call against stock to collect premium, sell a put
to collect premium with the intent to own shares of the underlying at a discount if prices do drop
lower, or just sell a credit spread looking for prices to hold a level because you are not sure of
direction.
I came across a report created by Dr. John Summa which sheds some light on the subject of
who actually wins more often in options. Is it the buyer or the seller of options? Despite the report
and research being dated thirteen years, I still find the information very relevant and informative
to option traders today.
In his study, Dr. Summa finds that time and time again, regardless of market direction, the sellers
of options have the advantage over the buyers. Think of it like this; if more than 60% of options
expire worthless, and less than 40% of options expire with some value, then don’t you think you
would rather be on the sell side of the equation?
It is important to note that in his study, Dr. Summa is referring to the ratio of options held to
expiration that expire worthless. He does not include all the options contracts that are closed for
a lower price than they were opened. The 60% figure is the number I first learned when I began
trading. Over the years, I have seen statistics and articles citing that the percentage of options
that expire worthless can run up to an astronomical 90%, which is hard to believe. It is hard to
know exactly how many options contracts make money for the seller because so many are
closed for a profit before the expiration date.

2. Many traders, new and experienced alike, never consider the fact that time decay can work to
their advantage. Whether they are bullish or bearish makes no difference. These traders choose
to trade long, on the buy side, and must work hard to overcome many hurdles including time
decay and priced-in moves. In order to profit, these traders must utilize strict money
management systems and a disciplined approach to trading.
Options writers, another name for options sellers, must also use money management and
position sizing to protect themselves and their accounts. Sellers, on the other hand, do not have
to overcome time, the price movement of the underlying, or volatility. Option sellers can use
those hurdles to their advantage and ride them to profits on a weekly or monthly basis.
Dr. Summa’s study shows that over time, three of every four options that were traded on the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and held to expiration expired worthless. This means that sellers
come out ahead of buyers 75% of the time. An in-depth look at different portions of the study set
showed that, depending on market trend, 90% or more of calls or puts expired worthless in a
given year. Look at the put statistics for the S&P and the NASDAQ. During the study period, the
markets were rallying and over 90% of all puts held until expiration expired worthless. What this
means is that during a bull market selling puts can be as close to a sure thing in trading as it
gets. The reverse is true in a bear market.
The study is based on data collected from the CME over the course of three years from 1997-
1999 and spans five distinct bull or bear markets. In the study, the relationship of buyers versus
sellers is based on options held all the way until expiration. It clearly shows that in the end,
sellers always have the advantage over buyers. The data is based on the relationship of expired
worthless options to the number of exercised options, regardless of profit.
Over the course of the three year period, the average number of options contracts held to
expiration that expired worthless was 76.5% of the total options volume for the five CME markets
studied. The low was 75.8% and the high was 77.5%, creating a very narrow range and
suggesting that the number is fairly consistent over time regardless of market trend.
When broken down into the component markets, the underlying trend of sellers outpacing buyers
is seen again. In that time, the percent of expired worthless options for S&P futures was over
80%, a staggering figure. In each of the markets studied, the number of options that expired
worthless is much higher than the number that expire in-the-money. The underlying S&P market
trend was bullish at the time, giving call buyers an added advantage over the sellers, although

3. still not enough to overcome the sell-side bias. During that time, 59% of S&P calls expired
worthless while only 41% expired in-the-money.
Further, we can see that in each market the underlying trend affected which type of option was
more likely to expire worthless. When there was a bull market, put sellers won out and when
there was bear market, call sellers were the big winners. The point is that regardless of market
direction, sellers of calls and puts had the advantage over the buyers.
Dr. Summa’s findings show that sellers of options have a distinct advantage over buyers. The
sell-side bias is so strong that, depending on market direction, options have up to a 98% chance
of expiring worthless. Even when sold in line with the underlying trend, the seller still has as
much as a 75% advantage over the buyer. Taken in this light, it is easy to see how this statistic
can be seen as an incentive to all traders to at least think about trying to implement option selling
strategies to their arsenal.
This is why I feel that any trader looking to take their option trading to the next level should
develop a trading strategy that utilizes a strong foundation in option strategies using credit
positions like covered calls and credit spreads. These trades are can be extremely profitable,
especially when utilized as part of an ongoing cash flow strategy in a portfolio.
If you are interested in reading the full report download here: Options Report.
I have been very successful selling options with a 92% success rate and took a $10,000 account
to $26,875 in just a year’s time with only one trade a week in the S&P 500 Index (SPX).
I have created a course teaching exactly how you can use the same type of strategy to trade,
which takes less than 15 minutes a week.
If you are interested in learning this material check out my SPX Option Trading Course.
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