GCFF Vancouver 2015 - Challenges and Opportunities with Energy Metals in 2015 by Chris Berry, Founder, House Mountain Partners

1. 1
Challenges and Opportunities
with Energy Metals in 2015
/2015年能源金屬的挑戰和機會
Global Chinese Financial Forum國際金融投資博覽會
Vancouver, BC卑詩省溫哥華
Chris Berry
January 17, 2015 /2015年1月17日
2/3/2015

2. 2
 We focus on the theory of Convergence. Our focus is interpreting
the dynamics between macro economics, geopolitics, technology,
and resources我們專注于收斂理論。我們的重點是分析宏觀經濟、地緣政治、技
術和資源之間的相互影響。
 We consult with institutional clients on discovery amongst the
above topics and provide macro research我們與機構客戶磋商發現以上板
塊中最熱事件，提供宏觀研究。
 We publish a complimentary newsletter called the Disruptive
Discoveries Journal. Join us at www.discoveryinvesting.com 我們出版
名爲《破壞性發現雜志》的雜志。加入我們www.discoveryinvesting.com。
 My email我的電郵: cberry@house-mountain.com
 Twitter: @cberry1
 LinkedIn
2/3/2015 2

3. 3
Where are we in the economic cycle
我們處于經濟周期的哪個階段？
Rationale for Energy Metals
能源金屬的理論基礎
2/3/2015 3

4. 42/3/2015

5. 52/3/2015

6. 62/3/2015

7. 72/3/2015

8. 82/3/2015

9. 92/3/2015

10. 102/3/2015

11. 112/3/2015

12. 122/3/2015

13. 132/3/2015

14. 14
Labor, capital, and cash are plentiful勞動
力、資本和現金充足
High debt loads債務負擔高
Slack in aggregate demand總需求疲弱
Negative real interest rates實際利率爲負值
Basic technology is ubiquitous基本技術是普
遍的
DISINFLATION2/3/2015 14

15. 15
Interest rates?利率？
How fast can China “change”?中國“轉型”能多
快？
Continued US Dollar strength?美元繼續强勢？
What tools do Central Banks have left?各國中
央銀行還有什麽手段？
Where is the value in commodities?大宗商品的
價值在哪裏？
2/3/2015 15

16. 162/3/2015
Demand rates > global GDP需求增長率>全球GDP
增速
Market misunderstanding市場誤解
Multiple end markets多個終端市場
China clean-up mandate中國减少污染的决心
Crucial for PRODUCTIVITY對于生産力是關鍵

17. 172/3/2015
Raises quality of life提高生活質量
Demographics and investment are
two methods to enhance
productivity人口和投資是提高生産力的兩
個方法。
Demographics in the West and
China look challenging西方國家和中國
的人口看起來面臨挑戰。

18. 182/3/2015

19. 192/3/2015
Compete at the Lowest Cost以最低成
本競爭
Exploit Inefficiencies解决效率低
Focus on Vertical Integration專注于垂
直整合

20. 20
POSCO and Lithium Extraction
浦項制铁公司和鋰提取
TiO2 Production
二氧化鈦生産
2/3/2015 20

21. 21
Don’t “throw out the baby with the bathwater”.
投資的時候應去粗存精
Productivity will be driven by investment. Who is
investing?投資將驅動生産力。誰投資？
New paradigm in mining space necessary –
embrace disruption as both an investor or mining
company to succeed采礦業新的模式 – 投資者或礦業公
司要想成功就要接受中斷
2/3/2015 21

22. 22
www.discoveryinvesting.com
My email我的電郵: cberry@house-
mountain.com
Twitter: @cberry1
LinkedIn
2/3/2015

23. 23
The material herein is for informational purposes only and is not intended to and does not
constitute the rendering of investment advice or the solicitation of an offer to buy securities. The
foregoing discussion contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private
Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (The Act). In particular when used in the preceding
discussion the words “plan,” confident that, believe, scheduled, expect, or intend to, and similar
conditional expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements subject to the safe
harbor created by the ACT. Such statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties and
actual results could differ materially from those expressed in any of the forward looking
statements. Such risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to; future events and
financial performance of an investment which are inherently uncertain and actual events and / or
results may differ materially. In addition from time to time I discuss investments that are not
registered in the U.S. or Canada. In no way, shape, or form are discussions of companies here
meant as recommendations to buy or sell securities. I may own shares in any of the companies
mentioned.
 You absolutely must perform your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor before
considering investing in companies discussed this presentation.
 Data derived from various sources including the IMF, Bloomberg, and tradingeconomics.com
 此報告中的材料僅爲提供信息，無意也不構成投資建議或教唆購買證券。以上的討論包含《》定義的前瞻性陳述。尤其是之
前的討論中使用了“計劃”、“相信”、“認爲”、“安排”、“預期”或“打算”和類似表達，這表明是前瞻性陳述，受
到此法案安全港的保護。此類陳述涉及一定的風險和不確定性。實際結果可能與此類前瞻性陳述中表達的結果大相徑庭。 此
類風險和不確定性包括但不限于本身存在不確定性的一個投資的未來事件和財務表現。此外，我有時談到美國或加拿大之外
的投資。提到這些公司絕非是建議您買賣這些證券。我可能擁有提及的這些的公司。
 您在考慮投資此報告中提及的公司之前必須自己進行盡職調查和諮詢您的財務顧問。此報告中的數據來源包括國際貨幣基金
組織、彭博社和tradingeconomics.com。
2/3/2015