2. 1.1 Introduction of the study
The prosperity of a country depends upon its economic activities. Like any
other sphere of modern socio-economic activities in Bangladesh, remittance is
one of the most important economic variables in recent times as it helps in
balancing balance of payments, increasing foreign exchange reserves,
enhancing national savings and increasing velocity of money. For about two
decades remittance has been contributing around 35% of export earnings.
Moreover, it is greater than foreign aid and thus helps in lessening dependence
on foreign aid remittance gets momentum in recent time in Bangladesh and is
the second largest sector of foreign exchange earnings after the garment; sector.
If cost of imported raw materials is deducted from the foreign exchange earning
of the garments sector, remittance becomes the sign: largest sector of foreign
exchange earning. Remittance earning ; increasing day by day but at a lower
rate than the increase in emigration from Bangladesh due to the increasing share
of unskilled or semi-skilled labors than the professionals in international
migration. The share o remittance in GNI (Gross National Income) is increasing
day by day. Remittance affects almost all the macro-economic indicators of a
country positively. Though there are also negative sides of remittance earning
e.g. brain drain, its overall contribution to Bangladesh economy is very much
effective.
1.2 Origin of the Report
This report is prepared as per internship requirement of my Master of Business
Administration (MBA) program of the Premier University Chittagong. I worked
two month from 16th Feb- 16th April 2014 in Shahjalal Islami Bank Ltd.
Agrabad Branch, Chittagong. In Two months I have through various Banking
activities. This report is a brief overview of those daily activities I have done
during the internship period.
3. 1.3 Objectives of the report
The objective of the report is to evaluate the foreign currency reserve and its
effect on growth of economy. The specific objectives are:
To find out the volume of foreign currency reserve in Bangladesh during
last ten years.
To find out the source of foreign remittance, nature of foreign
remittance and their impact on balance of payment of Bangladesh.
To identify the major determinants of foreign remittance along with the
constraints and prospects.
To focus the socio-economic impact of foreign remittances on economic
advancement of Bangladesh.
To suggest for increasing foreign remittance and liberalize the
procedural difficulties and flaws.
1.4 Methodology of the Study
The report was largely involved in accumulation of information from the
published materials and also from the website of data mining guide. This
prepared by using both primary and secondary data.
1.5 Sources of Data
A. Primary sources:
1. Personal observation
2. Discussion with the employees
3. Work in different departments
B. Secondary sources:
4. 1. Published Documents
2. Office circular
1.6 Scope of the Study
This report provides emphasis on the performance of “Foreign Exchange”
service of Shahjalal Islami Bank Ltd. This report assist me to gain a robust and
prevailing information and Importer, Exporter & non residents satisfaction level
of Shahjalal Islami Bank Ltd. from its existing customers.
1.7 Limitation of the Study
Today’s world is an information village. All the information is being made
available within a click distance. Bangladesh is still lacking in this regard. In
preparing this report I have found that data are not available for people. As
being an intern, it also created some problems, due to the bank policy of
maintaining secrecy and also because I did not get the opportunity in all
departments. The employee of different section remains busy with their daily
work, it was difficult for them to find time for me to give briefs about banking
norms. But the employees have given me practical ideas whenever they were
free. Load of work place was also barrier to collect sufficient data and time of
internship is also not enough.
6. 2.1 Definition
In a strict sense, foreign-exchange reserves should only include foreign
banknotes, foreign bank deposits, foreign treasury bills, and short and long-term
foreign government securities.[2] However, the term in popular usage commonly
also adds gold reserves, special drawing rights (SDRs), and International
Monetary Fund (IMF) reserve positions. This broader figure is more readily
available, but it is more accurately termed official international reserves or
international reserves.
Foreign-exchange reserves are called reserve assets in the balance of payments
and are located in the capital account. Hence, they are usually an important part
of the international investment position of a country. The reserves are labeled as
reserve assets under assets by functional category. In terms of financial assets
classifications, the reserve assets can be classified as Gold bullion, Unallocated
gold accounts, Special drawing rights, currency, Reserve position in the IMF,
interbank position, other transferable deposits, other deposits, debt securities,
loans, equity (listed and unlisted), investment fund shares and financial
derivatives, such as forward contracts and options. There is no counterpart for
reserve assets in liabilities of the International Investment Position. Usually,
when the monetary authority of a country has some kind of liability, this will be
included in other categories, such as Other Investments. In the Central Bank’s
Balance Sheet, foreign exchange reserves are assets, along with domestic credit.
2.2 Purpose
7. Official international reserves assets allow a central bank to purchase the
domestic currency, which is considered a liability for the central bank (since it
prints the money or fiat currency as IOUs). Thus, the quantity of foreign
exchange reserves can change as a central bank implements monetary policy,[4]
but this dynamic should be analyzed generally in the context of the level of
capital mobility, the exchange rate regime and other factors. This is known as
Trilemma or Impossible trinity. Hence, in a world of perfect capital mobility, a
country with fixed exchange rate would not be able to execute an independent
monetary policy.
A central bank that implements a fixed exchange rate policy may face a
situation where supply and demand would tend to push the value of the
currency lower or higher (an increase in demand for the currency would tend to
push its value higher, and a decrease lower) and thus the central bank would
have to use reserves to maintain its fixed exchange rate. Under perfect capital
mobility, the change in reserves is a temporary measure, since the fixed
exchange rate attaches the domestic monetary policy to that of the country of
the base currency. Hence, in the long term, the monetary policy has to be
adjusted in order to be compatible with that of the country of the base currency.
Without that, the country will experience outflows or inflows of capital. Fixed
pegs were usually used as a form of monetary policy, since attaching the
domestic currency to a currency of a country with lower levels of inflation
should usually assure convergence of prices.
In a pure flexible exchange rate regime or floating exchange rate regime, the
central bank does not intervene in the exchange rate dynamics; hence the
exchange rate is determined by the market. Theoretically, in this case reserves
are not necessary. Other instruments of monetary policy are generally used,
such as interest rates in the context of an inflation targeting regime. Milton
Friedman was a strong advocate of flexible exchange rates, since he considered
8. that independent monetary (and in some cases fiscal) policy and openness of the
capital account are more valuable than a fixed exchange rate. Also, he valued
the role of exchange rate as a price. As a matter of fact, he believed that
sometimes it could be less painful and thus desirable to adjust only one price
(the exchange rate) than the whole set of prices of goods and wages of the
economy, that are less flexible.
Mixed exchange rate regimes ('dirty floats', target bands or similar variations)
may require the use of foreign exchange operations to maintain the targeted
exchange rate within the prescribed limits, such as fixed exchange rate regimes.
As seen above, there is an intimate relation between exchange rate policy (and
hence reserves accumulation) and monetary policy. Foreign exchange
operations can be sterilized (have their effect on the money supply negated via
other financial transactions) or unsterilized.
Non-sterilization will cause an expansion or contraction in the amount of
domestic currency in circulation, and hence directly affect inflation and
monetary policy. For example, to maintain the same exchange rate if there is
increased demand, the central bank can issue more of the domestic currency and
purchase foreign currency, which will increase the sum of foreign reserves.
Since (if there is no sterilization) the domestic money supply is increasing
(money is being 'printed'), this may provoke domestic inflation. Also, some
central banks may let the exchange rate appreciate to control inflation, usually
by the channel of cheapening tradable goods.
Since the amount of foreign reserves available to defend a weak currency (a
currency in low demand) is limited, a currency crisis or devaluation could be the
end result. For a currency in very high and rising demand, foreign exchange
reserves can theoretically be continuously accumulated, if the intervention is
sterilized through open market operations to prevent inflation from rising. On
9. the other hand, this is costly, since the sterilization is usually done by public
debt instruments (in some countries Central Banks are not allowed to emit debt
by themselves). In practice, few central banks or currency regimes operate on
such a simplistic level, and numerous other factors (domestic demand,
production and productivity, imports and exports, relative prices of goods and
services, etc.) will affect the eventual outcome. Besides that, the hypothesis that
the world economy operates under perfect capital mobility is clearly flawed.
As a consequence, even those central banks that strictly limit foreign exchange
interventions often recognize that currency markets can be volatile and may
intervene to counter disruptive short-term movements (that may include
speculative attacks). Thus, intervention does not mean that they are defending a
specific exchange rate level. Hence, the higher the reserves, the higher is the
capacity of the central bank to smooth the volatility of the Balance of Payments
and assure consumption smoothing in the long term.
2.3 Reserve Accumulation
After the end of the Bretton Woods system in the early 1970s, many countries
adopted flexible exchange rates. In theory reserves are not needed under this
type of exchange rate arrangement; thus the expected trend should be a decline
in foreign exchange reserves. However, the opposite happened and foreign
reserves present a strong upward trend. Reserves grew more than gross
domestic product (GDP) and imports in many countries. The only ratio that is
relatively stable is foreign reserves over M2.[6] Below are some theories that can
explain this trend.
10. 2.3.1 Theories
2.3.1.1 Signalling or Vulnerability Indicator
Ratios relating reserves to other external sector variables are popular among
credit risk agencies and international organizations to assess the external
vulnerability of a country. For example, the Article IV of 2013 uses total
external debt in percent of gross international reserves, gross international
reserves in months of prospective goods and nonfactor services imports, in
percent of broad money, in percent of short-term external debt and in percent of
short-term external debt on residual maturity basis plus current account deficit.
Therefore, countries with similar characteristics would accumulate reserves to
avoid negative assessment by the financial market, especially when compared to
members of a peer group.
11. 2.3.1.2 Precautionary Aspect
The traditional use of reserves is as savings for potential times of crises,
especially balance of paymentscrises. As we will see below, originally those
fears were related to the current account, but this gradually changed to
include financial account needs as well. Originally, the creation of the IMF
was viewed as a response to the need of countries to accumulate reserves.
If a specific country is suffering from a balance of payments crisis, it would
be able to borrow from the IMF, as this would bea poolof resources, and so
the need to accumulate reserves would be lowered. However, the process
of obtaining resources from the Fund is not automatic, which can cause
problematic delays especially when markets are stressed. Hence, the fund
never fulfilled completely its role, servingmore as provider of resourcesfor
longer term adjustments. Another caveat of the project is the fact that when
the crisis is generalized, the resources of the IMF could prove insufficient.
After the 2008 crisis, the members of the Fund had to approve a capital
increase, since its resources were strained. Some critics point out that the
increase in reserves in Asian countries after the 1997 Asia crisis was a
consequence of disappointment of the countries of the region with the
IMF.[10] During the 2008 crisis, the Federal Reserve instituted currency
swap lines with several countries, alleviating liquidity pressures in dollars,
thus reducing the need to use reserves.
2.3.1.2.1 External Trade
As most countries engage in international trade, reserves would be important to
assure that trade would not be interrupted in the event of a stop of the inflow of
foreign exchange to the country, what could happen during a financial crisis for
example. A rule of thumb usually followed by central banks is to at least hold
12. an amount of foreign currency equivalent to three months of imports. As
commercial openness increased in the last years (part of the process known as
globalization), this factor alone could be responsible for the increase of reserves
in the same period. As imports grew, reserves should grow as well to maintain
the ratio. Nonetheless, evidence suggests that reserve accumulation was faster
than what would be explained by trade, since the ratio has increased to several
months of imports. The external trade factor also explains why the ratio of
reserves in months of imports is closely watched by credit risk agencies.
2.3.1.2.2 Financial Openness
Besides external trade, the other important trend of the last decades is the
opening of the financial account of the balance of payments. Hence,
financial flows, such as direct investment and portfolio investment became
more important. Usually financial flows are more volatile, which enforces
the necessity of higher reserves. The rule of thumb for holding reserves as a
consequence of the increasing of financial flows is known as Guidotti–
Greenspan rule and it states that a country should hold liquid reserves
equal to their foreign liabilities coming due within a year. An example of
the importance of this ratio can be found in the aftermath of the crisis of
2008, when the Korean Won depreciated strongly. Because of the reliance
of Korean banks on international wholesale financing, the ratio of short-
term external debt to reserves was close to 100%, which exacerbated the
perception of vulnerability.
2.3.1.3 Exchange Rate Policy
Reserve accumulation can be an instrument to interfere with the exchange rate.
Since the first General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) of 1948 to the
foundation of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1995, the regulation of
13. trade is a major concern for most countries throughout the world. Hence,
commercial distortions such as subsides and taxes are strongly discouraged.
However, there is no global framework to regulate financial flows. As an
example of regional framework, members of the European Union are prohibited
from introducing capital controls, except in an extraordinary situation. The
dynamics of China’s trade balance and reserve accumulation during the first
decade of the 2000 was one of the main reasons for the interest in this topic.
Some economists are trying to explain this behavior. Usually, the explanation is
based on a sophisticated variation of mercantilism, such as to protect the take-
off in the tradable sector of an economy, by avoiding the real exchange rate
appreciation that would naturally arise from this process. One attempt uses a
standard model of open economy intertemporal consumption to show that it is
possible to replicate a tariff on imports or a subsidy on exports by closing the
current account and accumulating reserves. Another is more related to the
economic growth literature. The argument is that the tradable sector of an
economy is more capital intense than the non-tradable sector. The private sector
invests too little in capital, since it fails to understand the social gains of a
higher capital ratio given by externalities (like improvements in human capital,
higher competition, technological spillovers and increasing returns to scale).
The government could improve the equilibrium by imposing subsidies and
tariffs, but the hypothesis is that the government is unable to distinguish
between good investment opportunities and rent seeking schemes. Thus,
reserves accumulation would correspond to a loan to foreigners to purchase a
quantity of tradable goods from the economy. In this case, the real exchange
rate would depreciate and the growth rate would increase. In some cases, this
could improve welfare, since the higher growth rate would compensate the loss
of the tradable goods that could be consumed or invested. In this context,
foreigners have the role to choose only the useful tradable goods sectors.
14. 2.3.1.4 Intergenerational Savings
Reserve accumulation can be seen as a way of "forced savings". The
government, by closing the financial account, would force the private sector to
buy domestic debt in the lack of better alternatives. With these resources, the
government buys foreign assets. Thus, the government coordinates the savings
accumulation in the form of reserves. Sovereign wealth funds are examples of
governments that try to save the windfall of booming exports as long-term
assets to be used when the source of the windfall is extinguished.
2.3.2 Costs
There are costs in maintaining large currency reserves. Price fluctuations in
exchange markets result in gains and losses in the purchasing power of reserves.
In addition to fluctuations in exchange rates, the purchasing power of fiat
money decreases constantly due to devaluation through inflation. Therefore, a
central bank must continually increase the amount of its reserves to maintain the
same power to manipulate exchange rates. Reserves of foreign currency provide
a small return in interest. However, this may be less than the reduction in
purchasing power of that currency over the same period of time due to inflation,
effectively resulting in a negative return known as the "quasi-fiscal cost". In
addition, large currency reserves could have been invested in higher yielding
assets.
Several calculations have been attempted to measure the cost of reserves. The
traditional one is the spread between government debt and the yield on reserves.
The caveat is that higher reserves can decrease the perception of risk and thus
the government bond interest rate, so this measures can overstate the cost.
Alternatively, another measure compares the yield in reserves with the
alternative scenario of the resources being invested in capital stock to the
15. economy, which is hard to measure. One interesting measure tries to compare
the spread between short term foreign borrowing of the private sector and yields
on reserves, recognizing that reserves can correspond to a transfer between the
private and the public sectors. By this measure, the cost can reach 1% of GDP
to developing countries. While this is high, it should be viewed as an insurance
against a crisis that could easily cost 10% of GDP to a country. In the context of
theoretical economic models it is possible to simulate economies with different
policies (accumulate reserves or not) and directly compare the welfare in terms
of consumption. Results are mixed, since they depend on specific features of the
models.
2.4 History
The modern exchange market as tied to the prices of gold began during 1880.
Of this year the countries significant by size of reserves were Austria, Belgium,
Canada, Denmark, Finland, Germany and Sweden.
Official international reserves, the means of official international payments,
formerly consisted only of gold, and occasionally silver. But under the Bretton
Woods system, the US dollar functioned as a reserve currency, so it too became
part of a nation's official international reserve assets. From 1944–1968, the US
dollar was convertible into gold through the Federal Reserve System, but after
1968 only central banks could convert dollars into gold from official gold
reserves, and after 1973 no individual or institution could convert US dollars
into gold from official gold reserves. Since 1973, no major currencies have been
convertible into gold from official gold reserves. Individuals and institutions
must now buy gold in private markets, just like other commodities. Even though
US dollars and other currencies are no longer convertible into gold from official
gold reserves, they still can function as official international reserves.
16. 2.5 Adequacy and Excess Reserves
The IMF proposed a new metric to assess reserves adequacy in 2011. The
metric was based on the careful analysis of sources of outflow during crisis.
Those liquidity needs are calculated taking in consideration the correlation
between various components of the balance of payments and the probability of
tail events. The higher the ratio of reserves to the developed metric, the lower is
the risk of a crisis and the drop in consumption during a crisis. Besides that, the
Fund does econometric analysis of several factors listed above and finds those
reserves ratios are generally adequate among emerging markets.
Reserves that are above the adequacy ratio can be used in other government
funds invested in more risky assets such as sovereign wealth funds or as
insurance to time of crisis, such as stabilization funds.
18. 3.1 Introduction
In its latest monetary policy statement, the Bangladesh Bank, the central
monetary authority of Bangladesh, stated that “the country will be better off
with utilisation of the foreign exchange inflows in growth supportive
investments than with accretion of ever reserves”.2 The call has been made in
the wake of the country’s burgeoning foreign exchange (forex) reserves that
amounted to a record US$8.5 billion in August 2009. The central bank’s major
concern is the opportunity cost of reserves build-up.3 However, the Bangladesh
Bank has neither given any detailed account on the optimal level of reserves nor
any roadmap on how to utilise the country’s excess reserves, if any.
We noticed a similar euphoria in India, particularly after 2000 when it became
one of the major forex reserves holders. However, the reversal of short-term
capital flows and deterioration in its trade account following the financial crisis
resulted in concomitant decline in India’s forex reserves. Except for the
developed and a handful of odd-underdeveloped countries, the reserves build-up
has indeed become a norm in most emerging economies. For instance, China,
the world’s largest holder of forex reserves, has, by itself, accumulated over
US$2 trillion reserves since 1990, with the accumulation accelerating in recent
years.4
Open-economy macroeconomics has paid significant attention to this area in
recent years, particularly following the East Asian and petro-dollar countries’
massive reserves build-up which has added at least two interesting dimensions
19. to the rapidly changing global economy. First, it has created huge global
imbalances between the United States (US) and China.5 Second, some of the
reserves are being channelled to develop numerous Sovereign Wealth Funds
(SWFs) that have been seen as new financial power brokers.6
For Bangladesh’s economy, an unprecedented rise in remittances in recent years
has resulted in reserves accumulation. It is perhaps unique in the sense that the
trade balance of current account or capital flows components (including foreign
direct investments [FDI]) of capital and financial accounts generally lead to a
surplus in the balance of payments (BoP) which eventually end up in reserves
build-up, as can be noticed in East Asia and other emerging markets.
Nevertheless, the reserves accretion has both advantages and disadvantages. A
country has to maintain a certain amount of forex reserves to meet its import
bills and other short-term payments or debt obligations, inter alia. But reserves
accumulation in excess of optimal level comes with significant costs (both fiscal
and social). Furthermore, the alternative uses of reserves are not the panacea.
Such moves have faced a huge setback in recent times following the capital loss
of some of the key SWFs.7 Hence, surplus in the BoP account and the
consequent reserves build-up is a double-edged sword and poses a momentous
challenge to the central bankers in moulding monetary policies.
Research on the different aspects of reserves accumulation is vast but little has
been done in Bangladesh. Against this backdrop, the aim of the paper is to
provide a simple analysis of Bangladesh’s forex reserves, particularly focusing
on the country’s key macro variables including its external economy, and its
reserves position vis-à-vis some conventional reserves adequacy criteria. The
paper also attempts to evaluate the usefulness of these global benchmarks in the
local circumstances. The rest of the paper is organised as follows. In Section II,
we discuss the existing literature pertaining to reserves accumulation. The
recent dynamics of some of Bangladesh’s macro and financial variables,
particularly the trends in its savings, investments, balance of payments (BoP)
20. and exchange rate, that have direct association with reserves accumulation are
analysed in Section III. Based on a back-of-the-envelope calculation, the
reserves adequacy measure for Bangladesh is discussed in Section IV. In
Section V, we look at the costs and benefits of reserves accumulation in the
context of Bangladesh emphasising on its macroeconomic and financial sector
dynamics. The question of alternative uses of the country’s reserves, if any, will
be discussed in Section VI. The final section concludes the paper.
3.2 Reserves Accumulation: The Literature
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) defines an economy’s international
reserves as “those external assets that are readily available to and controlled by
monetary authorities for direct financing of payments imbalances through
intervention in exchange markets to affect the currency exchange, and/or for
other purposes.8 Before we examine whether Bangladesh is in a position to use
some of its forex reserves for infrastructure development or other productive
purposes, it is essential to explore the literature on this issue. The literature on
the various issues under this rubric is vast and burgeoning, so our discussion
should be seen as nothing more than a ‘helicopter tour’. We shall explore some
key issues pertaining to forex reserves. These include motivations behind
emerging markets and other developing countries’ reserves accumulation, the
optimal level of reserves, the opportunity costs of reserves build-up and their
alternative uses.
It is rather puzzling that developing economies with severe constraints of capital
have a tendency towards stock-piling low-yielding assets – foreign exchange
reserves. Several studies have attempted to understand the puzzle but the
general consensus is that countries accumulate reserves owing to two key
21. motives- mercantilist and self-insurance.9 Apparently, except for China, self-
insurance trumps mercantilist motives.
Some studies show that much of the reserves accumulation in Asia can be
attributed to an optimal insurance model that essentially means that reserves
provide a steady source of liquidity10 to mitigate the impact of a “sudden stop”
in capital flows.11 Indeed, the reserves have cushioned some Asian countries in
the wake of capital outflows and global risk aversion during the ongoing
financial crisis. However, Green and Torgerson (2007) found that the largest
reserves holders in emerging markets far exceed the required precautionary
levels and they are of the view that most reserves accumulation is an attempt to
limit exchange rate flexibility, or what is known as mercantilist exchange rate
policies. A recent IMF study, though, found that emerging Asia’s, other than
China, reserves build-up is not excessive.
However, the open-economy trilemma might break down under certain
conditions, particularly when the central banks target exchange rate with an
excess supply of foreign exchange.15 The massive reserves accumulation in
emerging markets indicate that countries can converge towards intermediate
levels of the trilemma, banking on a managed float exchange rates while
maintaining some degree of monetary autonomy and accelerating financial
openness. In other words, many countries have achieved the intermediate level
of this trilemma using forex reserves as a buffer.
It is widely believed (and empirically tested) that China’s reserves build-up is
the result of its mercantilist exchange rate policies as opposed to precautionary
motives.
Nevertheless, whatever the intentions, the forex reserves build-up in most
circumstances is a by-product of domestic currency undervaluation (or to resist
currency appreciation) vis-à-vis its major trading partners that ultimately makes
the concerned country’s tradables relatively competitive in the international
22. markets. However, a critical point here is that the success of this strategy
depends on how open or closed an economy is.13 In theory, a country cannot
maintain a fixed exchange rate, free capital movement and an independent
monetary policy, concurrently known as the “impossible trinity”, a fundamental
contribution of the Mundell-Fleming framework.
To sum up, irrespective of precautionary or mercantilist motives, reserves shield
developing economies form financial distress, particularly when countries face a
sudden stop in foreign capital flows or witness a reversal of flows. This is
particularly important for countries that have institutional bottlenecks. A
comfortable level of reserves minimises a country’s sovereign default risk.
Finally, a substantive stock of reserves could potentially lower the concerned
country’s borrowing costs. (2008) has calculated the social cost of reserves
accumulation for India. See Table 1 for the potential risk and cost, and
underlying factors of reserves accumulation.
23. Table 1: The Potential Cost or Risk of Reserves Accumulation
Potential Risk or Cost Underlying factors
Risks a) Conflicts between exchange
rate stability and inappropriate
easing of monetary conditions,
eventually resulting in inflation
and/or overinvestment and/or
bubbles.
b) Difficulties for central banks in
managing the money market and,
more generally, in implementing
monetary policy.
c) Segmentation of the public
Unsuccessful sterilisation due, for example
to (i) underdeveloped financial markets and
shortage of sterilisation instruments; (ii)
snowball effects (that is, higher interest rates
produced by sterilisation coupled with
expectations of exchange rate appreciation
produce massive capital inflows, thus forcing
the central bank to intervene/sterilise even
more).
Excessive central bank dependence on
liquidity-absorbing transactions, whereas the
money market is more easily managed via
liquidity-providing operations.
Excessive sterilisation through issuance of
24. debt market, thus impairing its
liquidity.
d) Market (that is, currency and
interest rate) risk, resulting in
potentially sizeable capital losses
on the balance sheet of the
moneytary authority.
central bank liabilities instead of government
paper.
Accumulation over time of a potential for
currency revaluation/appreciation, which
materialises when intervention ceases or is
no longer effective; interest rate risk.
Costs Sterilisation costs
Concerns about bank profitability
The yields paid on domestic sterilisation
instruments exceed those on foreign assets.
Particularly because of controls on lending,
the banking sector might have hardly any
alternatives to buying low-yield sterilisation
instruments.
Source: The European Central Bank (2006).
Thus, reserves accumulation is a trade off between liquid assets (that reduces
the probability of financial distress, lessen sovereign default risk, lowers real
exchange rate volatility, etc. which in turn may induce potentially higher growth
rate) and opportunity cost (sterilisation cost, social cost and difficulties in
monetary policy operations, etc.).
25. The next question is what the optimal level of reserves is. There is no “one-size-
fits-all” rule to measure the optimal reserves for all countries but there are some
criteria that help gauge if a country has adequate reserves or holding an excess.
The conventional recommendation is that a country’s reserves should be ten
percent of its GDP. It is an indicative measure of the relative size of reserves
holding. The other conventional prescription is that reserves account for at least
three months worth of a country’s import bills, a widely accepted criterion
derived from a trade-related approach to the BoP and reserves requirements
which most countries follow when they calculate optimal reserves.
The Baumol-Tobin inventory model with fixed costs of depleting and
replenishing reserves had been the framework of reserve adequacy literature,
particularly in the 1960s and 1970s when current accounts were the major
focus. However, the rapid spread of financial globalisation, particularly free
flows of cross-border short-term capital, has been accompanied by contagions
as was noticed during the East Asian financial crisis in 1997-98 and the
numerous financial turmoils in Latin America, Eastern Europe or elsewhere in
the world. And in most cases, countries that had been affected by the crisis have
had large ratios of short-term foreign debt. Hence, if an economy has an open or
semi-open capital market or its government borrows extensively from foreign
sources, it needs to look at its capital account as well. Taking this development
into consideration, the Greenspan-Guidotti-Fischer rule recommends that a
country’s optimal reserves should be at least equal to its short-term debt. This
rule reflects the shifting focus from reserves adequacy measured in terms of
trade flows of goods to the flows of assets.
There are some other adequacy rules concerning optimal reserves, particularly
from countries that are exposed to short-term debt. The most notable one is that
adequacy of forex reserves should amount to 20 percent of money supply.27
The additional measures practiced by the Reserve Bank of India are a) 100
26. percent of total external debt, and b) share of volatile inflows (short-term debt
plus cumulative portfolio investment). However, it appears that these rules have
not gained much currency in practice.
Nevertheless, these rules are not beyond criticism and in many instances are
proven to not be a proper guide, particularly when countries face a “black swan”
type of unpredictable economic crisis. For instance, the IMF study calculated
that the cumulative output loss for six Asian economies most affected by the
1997-98 financial crisis was 19 percent of their GDP on average, and the GDP
loss for Indonesia and Thailand amounted to around 30 percent of their GDP.
An estimation by Caprio and Klingebiel (2003) has shown that the fiscal costs
of the banking crisis were as high as 55 percent of Indonesia’s GDP, and as low
as 16 percent of Malaysia’s GDP.
The next issue to look at is alternative uses of reserves. High opportunity cost of
reserves holding has prompted many countries to use a part of their reserves in
alternative vehicles. In other words, countries that have reserves in excess of the
optimal level are shifting them (or part of them) from the low-risk and low-yield
investments (mostly treasuries) to high-risk and high-yield assets. The petro-
dollar economies set the trend in the 1970s by investing a portion of their
reserves in the form of SWFs or similar vehicles following the oil-boom (and
the consequent surplus in their current accounts). Later, Singapore and some
other East Asian economies, notably China, joined the league when non-oil
trade generated the surpluses. A whopping US$3.22 trillion asset is now under
management by numerous SWFs. IMF projects that sovereign funds may hit the
US$6 trillion to US$10 trillion mark by 2013. The SWFs can be broadly
distinguished in five categories – stabilisation funds, savings funds for future
generations, reserve investment corporations, development funds and contingent
pension reserve funds. According to the IMF, these assets can be invested in a
broad range of asset classes – government bonds, agency and asset-backed
27. securities, corporate bonds, equities, real estate, infrastructure, derivatives
markets, alternative investments, and FDI.
The key issue here is whether such sovereign funds are developed based on
capital account or current account surpluses. The formation of SWFs with the
aid of speculative short-term capital flows that are largely drawn by their
macroeconomic fundamentals are liabilities for the recipient countries.
Alternative sources of the funds are largely generated through export boom32 or
commodity boom. SWFs based oncapital account surplus are proven to be risky
while the funds based on current account surplus are relatively less perilous.
Nevertheless, SWFs are not evaluated merely based on economic costs and
benefits; these funds in some cases might have geo-strategic motivations.34
3.3 Major Findings
‘Foreign remittance’ means purchase and sale of freely convertible foreign
currencies as admissible under Exchange Control Regulations of the country.
Purchase of foreign currencies constitutes inward foreign remittance and sale of
foreign currencies constitutes outward foreign remittance. So we see that there
are two types of Foreign Remittance:
Foreign Inward Remittance
Foreign Outward Remittance
Banks in Bangladesh, for example, SIBL (Shajalal Islami Bank Ltd.) has
established remittance arrangements with a number of exchange houses to
facilitate wage earners to remit their money to Bangladesh. This bank has
already been in operation with UAE Exchange Centre LLC, Wall Street
28. Exchange LLC, Trust Exchange, Route Asia Exchange, Instant Cash and
Bangladesh Money Transfer. SIBL have obtained permission from Bangladesh
Bank to start operation with Al Saad Exchange, First Solution Exchange, Al
Ahalia Exchange Bureau and Federal Exchange. The bank maintains
correspondence with other 16 Exchange House which are Al Fadaral Exchange,
National Exchange, City Exchange, Future Exchange, Al Ghurair Exchange,
Habib Exchange, Al Ansari Exchange, Emirates India International Exchange,
Instant Exchange, Oman UAE Exchange, Modern Exchange, Purusuttam Kanji
Exchange, Musandam Exchange, Lasidas Tharia Exchange, Oman United
Exchange and ICICI Bank. The extensive branch network of these Exchange
Houses has been largely helping Bangladeshi expatriates working in the UAE,
UK, Qatar, and Oman to transfer their funds speedily and efficiently through
online network. SIBL’s total foreign remittance volume was Tk. 3,209 million
in 2014. SIBL is exploring further avenues of remittance from other countries
such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, USA and Italy in the near future. The Foreign
Remittance department of SIBL Dilkusha Branch is equipped with a number of
foreign remittance facilities. Following are the types of foreign
Issuance of Foreign Demand Draft (F.D.D)
Issuance of travelers Cheques (T.C)
Issuance of foreign T.T (Telegraphic Transfer)
Disbursement of the cash of incoming F.T.T.
Collection of F.D.D.
Table 1 :Trends of Major Macroeconomic Indicators
Indicators FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14
29. Exchange Rate 67.1 69 68.6 68.8 69.2 71.2 79.1 79.9 77.7
Per Capital GDP in Taka 34502 38773 43719 48359 53961 61198 69614 78009 86731
As percentage of GDP
Domestic Savings 21.4 20.8 19.2 20.3 20.8 20.6 21.2 22 23.4
Investment 26.1 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.3 27.4 28.3 28.4 28.7
Revenue Income 9.3 9 9.6 9.1 9.5 10.2 10.9 10.7 11.6
Reveneue Surplus/Deficit 2.1 1.3 1.3 0.4 1.1 1.9 2.4 2.1 3
Annual Development Program
(ADP) 4.5 3.9 3.6 2.8 3.2 3.6 3.6 4.1 4.4
Source: Bangladesh Bank Annual Report, 2013-14.
3.4 Remittance in Bangladesh
Remittance is the life line of Bangladesh economy. Some 4.5m non resident
Bangladeshis are working abroad, and sending home hard earned foreign
currencies. It is believed that the actual number of Bangladeshi migrants, both
legal and illegal, would be close to 7.5 million. In the first 10 months of FY
2006-07, number of manpower export stood at 0.42m, showing 83.14% rise,
compared to 0.25m in FY2004-05 . In FY2005-06, the number stood at 0.29m,
current year to year growth is around 16%. In addition to achieving higher
export earnings, the country witnessed a 44 percent growth in remittance
earnings during the first quarter of 2008-09 fiscal year compared to the same
period of the previous fiscal year. The other records of remittance earnings in a
single month are $820.71 million in July and $808.72 million in March of year
2008. A total of 9,81,102 Bangladeshi people went abroad in 2007-08 fiscal
year which is about 74 percent above the previous fiscal year figure, Bangladesh
Bank statistics show. According to the statistics, on monthly average basis more
than 81,000 Bangladeshis went abroad in 2007-08 fiscal year. The figure was
46,000 in the in the Indicators previous fiscal year.
30. Medium Term Macroeconomic Framework: Key Indicators
Indicators
Actual
Estimated
(Revised) Budget
Projected
FY 11
FY
12
FY
13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17
Total Revenue 11.7 12.4 12.4 13.3 13.6 14.2 14.6
Tax 10 10.4 10.4 11 11.6 12 13.4
Non-Tax 9.6 10 10 10.6 11.2 11.6 12
Domestic Borrowing 3.8 3.3 3.1 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.2
External Borrowing 0.6 0.6 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.8
Exports( % change) 39.2 6.2 10.7 15 15 14.5 14.5
Import(% change) 52.1 2.4 0.8 8 15 14.5 13
Remitances (US$ million) 11.5 12.8 14.5 14.6 16.1 18 20.5
Current account balance (% of
GDP) -1.5
-
0.04 1.9 1.3 0.5 0 0.02
50Source: Bangladesh Bank Annual Report, 2013-14.
Non-resident Bangladeshis (NRBs) sent $2.345 billion to Bangladesh between
July and September of 2008, according to the Bangladesh Bank statistics.
Meanwhile, private bank officials said the global economic slowdown, mainly
31. in the US and European countries, is yet to impact the remittance inflow. They,
however, apprehend that if the crisis continues it may have a negative impact on
the inflow. The remittance market of Bangladesh has been showing a steady
growth in terms of incoming remittance volume. Considering the current macro-
economic indicators: it seems that this growth run will continue in the coming
years. Central Bank predicts that our annual incoming foreign remittance will
touch $10 billion in the next 3 years. The reasons for such robust growth can be
summarized as:
Stable macro-economic indicators including GDP growth,
Steady growth in manpower export specially in the middle east
Substantial devaluation of the local currency
Rapid urbanization
Development of new remittance corridors in Australia and part of
Europe and Africa
Increased focus of Central Bank and the Government to channel funds
through formal channels
Increased competition among financial institution to grab market share
Aggressive marketing policy adopted by Banks to increase their share of
wallet
Expansion of branch network of various commercial banks
MFIs involvement in channeling remittance funds in remote areas
Participation in the UN peace keeping missions
Anti-Money Laundering rules and regulations came in force
However, the market is still far from perfection in terms of service quality, cost
structure, and transaction risk aspects. Among all, the biggest impediment is the
32. speed of transactions and cost of transaction. In cases, it takes more than a week
to send a foreign remittance to beneficiary. Average cost is 20 SAR for a
remittance from Saudia Arabia to Bangladesh.
3.5 Major Remittance Sending Countries
Overseas migration from Bangladesh may be divided into two categories.
Outflows of Bangladeshis to the Western World, mainly to UK, and more
recently to the USA and Canada have been going on for a long time. The
migrants tend to stay permanently and tend to be skilled and semi skilled
workers and professionals.
On the other hand the migration boom in the early eighties relates mostly to
temporary migration of mostly semi skilled and unskilled laborers to the Middle
East. In recent years Malaysia, Korea and Singapore have emerged as important
destinations for Bangladeshi migrant workers. Around 41 percent of the
migrants have gone to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia alone, while the other Gulf
States namely, UAE, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran have
cumulatively absorbed nearly 53 percent of the migrant workers from
Bangladesh. The employment of workers abroad is quite sensitive to the
prevailing socio-political environment of the recipient countries. The Gulf crisis
in the 1990s forced the return of some 56,000 workers back home and led to a
sudden decline in remittance inflows from Kuwait and Iraq.
33. Table 2: Country-wise Workers’ Remittances
Countries FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
Saudi Arabia 2324 2859 3427 3290 3684.4 3830 3119
UAE 1135 1755 1890 2003 2404.8 2829 2685
UK 896.1 789.7 827.5 889.6 987.5 991.6 901.2
Kuwait 863.7 970.8 1019 1076 1190.1 1187 1107
USA 1380 1575 1452 1849 1498.5 1860 2323
Italy 214.5 186.9 182.2 215.6 244.8 233.2 269.6
Qatar 289.8 343.4 360.9 319.4 335.3 286.9 257.5
Oman 220.6 290.1 349.1 334.3 400.9 610.1 701.1
Singapore 130.1 165.1 193.5 202.3 311.5 498.8 429.1
Germany 26.9 19.3 16.5 25.6 35 25.8 26.94
Bahrain 138.2 157.4 170.1 185.9 298.5 361.7 459.4
Japan 16.3 14.1 14.7 15.2 22.2 21.2 17.06
Malaysia 92.4 282.2 587.1 703.7 847.5 997.4 1065
Other Countries 186.8 281.1 497.4 541.8 582.7 728.9 867.8
Total 7915 9689 10987 11650 12843 14461 14228
Source: Bangladesh Bank Annual Report, 2013-14.
3.6 Current Remittance Process
Currently the remittance process is mostly manual, partially automated.
Migrants use different methods in sending remittance involving both official
and unofficial channels. A major portion of remittance is being processed by
34. Hawala’s which is also known as ‘hundi’, which is an illegal process. And these
Hawalla’s are getting market due to lengthy process of remittance management
using banking channel.Legally bank and exchange house acts as main means for
remittance.
Exchange houses play a vital role as remitters touch point. Mostly, remittance
process initiates from exchange house .Exchange house acts as the contact point
for remitter, exchange house receives the payment instruction from remitter and
transfer the instruction to bank with which they have bilateral arrangement for
fund mobilization. The receiving bank receives the fund and routes the
remittance to actual beneficiary thro other banks or agents. Central bank acts as
clearing house for inter bank fund transfer. Officially, transfer of remittance
takes place through demand draft issued by a bank or an exchange house,
telegraphic transfer; postal order; account to account transfer. When remittances
are transferred directly from the foreign account of migrant worker to his own
account at home it is known as direct transfer. This can be through telegraphic
means or otherwise. Remittances are frequently sent through demand draft in
Taka issued by a bank or an exchange house in favor of a nominee of migrant.
Usually the draft is sent by post or in emergency by courier service. One can
send remittance through the postal authorities. In such case the remitted money
is handed over to the receiver by the local post-office. As there is no automated
system between exchange house to and bank to bank – the process takes weeks
to process a transaction in general.
Roadblocks in Current Remittance Process: The major roadblocks of a smooth
and efficient payment of foreign remittances are as follows:
Poor infrastructure in rural and semi-urban economy
Inadequate reach of private commercial banks within the country
Massive information asymmetry in the market
35. Active ‘Hundi’ market
Inefficiency of financial institutions
Poorly regulated exchange houses
Low literacy rate in the country
Uneven competition among financial institutions
Lack of investment in IT backbone development for market efficiency
Absence of a strong central payment gateway for ‘Straight Though
Processing (STP) of payment services. These above
imperfections/inefficiencies have resulted in abnormal share of ‘Hundi’
business in this sector. Today, it is estimated that the share of ‘Hundi’
business constitutes roughly 40% of total incoming foreign remittances.
3.7 Recent Macroeconomic and Monetary Developments in
Bangladesh Economy
How is this conventional wisdom of optimal reserves useful for Bangladesh,
and where do its forex reserves stand vis-à-vis the reserves yardsticks we have
discussed in the preceding section? Before we do a back-of-the-envelope
calculation of Bangladesh’s forex reserves, we need to look at some of its key
macro variables that have implications for reserves build-up. The Bangladesh
economy has demonstrated significant economic growth in the past one and a
half decades, owing to marked improvements in its key macro variables
including steady development in its external sectors. Its exports and imports are
growing steadily, aid flows are waning, and remittances are skyrocketing. As a
result, the country’s major macro variables are relatively better than compared
to that of a decade ago. But there are some pitfalls too.
36. As seen in Figure 1 (the left scale), there is a substantive gap between
Bangladesh’s gross domestic savings (GDS) and gross domestic investments
(GDI). Generally, imported savings that are reflected in gross national savings
(GNS) fill the gap. In the case of Bangladesh, the gap has been bridged
historically by GNS but since 2005-06 one can see a growing divergence
between GNS and GNI. From the macroeconomic perspective, this scenario is
seen either as a ‘savings glut’ (that one observes in China) or an ‘investment
drought’ (other emerging Asian economies). As evident from the slope of GNI,
Bangladesh falls into the latter group owing to its ‘investment drought’. This is
partly due to its underdeveloped financial systems,36 and partly due to other
structural problems in the economy – entailing difficulties in properly
channeling national savings to investments. This development has led to a
surplus in Bangladesh’s current account (BoP) that eventually ends up in
reserves accretion. The right scale of Figure 1 shows the trends in its forex
37. reserves. One gets a relatively better picture of Bangladesh’s forex reserves by
assessing its BoP position, particularly dynamics in its current account. It is
current account surpluses that led to the huge reserves accumulation in East
Asian countries.
Source: Based on International Financial Statistics, International Monetray
Fund.
The BoP position of Bangladesh (see Figure 2) shows that the country ran a
modest surplus in its capital and financial accounts until recently, whereas its
current account had been volatile until 2005-06. So, a consistent surplus in its
current account is a very recent development. The economy has been
experiencing a steady trade deficit (both exports and imports are on the rise with
import growths outpacing export growth) but the private transfer component of
the current account has witnessed a steady growth largely owing to workers’
remittances (see Table 2). Lately, Bangladesh has become one of the leading
remittance recipient countries. Despite leakages in the country’s capital and
financial accounts and trade account, remittances help maintain the overall
surplus in its BoP.
38. Empirical studies on Bangladesh’s equilibrium current account balance support
this analysis. Theoretically, current account is positively correlated with fiscal
balance, economic growth and private transfers and adversly with net foreign
assets. remittance inflows (private transfer).
Figure 3 illustrates Bangladesh’s current account norm along with the projected
medium-term current account which is based on medium-term projection values
for fiscal balance, GDP growth, private trasfers and NFA.
Figure 3: Bangladesh’s Equilibrium Current Account (% of GDP)
Source: IMF (2008).
Despite this positive scenario, one needs to assess Bangladesh’s current BoP
balances (thus forex reserves) with some caution. Bangladesh’s imports bills
were marginally lower in 2008-09 than the previous fiscal year, thanks partly to
a bust in global commodity prices, although exports witnessed a modest growth.
The excessive inflows of remittances could possibly be due to the repatriation of
savings by overseas Bangladeshis who lost their jobs in different parts of the
world during the financial crisis or their savings found limited investment
opportunities in overseas capital markets. These two developments could
slightly overstate the BoP positions of Bangladesh vis-à-vis its recent past.
39. The next point to address is Bangladesh’s monetary policy, particularly its
exchange rate that has wider implications for reserves build-up, as can be noted
in many East Asian economies, most noticeably in the case of China. The
detailed theoretical underpinnings of open-economy trilemma and other issues
related to reserves accumulation are discussed in the earlier section, and fairly
convincingly show that reserve accumulation is the result of intervention in the
forex market. The official position pertaining to Bangladesh’s exchange rate is
that the country’s “exchange rate is largely market-determined but the central
bank will intervene in the market, if needed”. This is what known as a
“managed float” exchange rate.
Nevertheless, one can test whether the Bangladesh Bank intervenes in the
foreign exchange market (sterilisation). If so, the degree of intervention can be
measured running a simple regression and plotting a sterilisation index
subsequently. The simple regression results (in line with IMF)shows that the
central bank of Bangladesh intervenes in the forex market substantially (see
Box 1). Moreover, one can get the same impression if we see the country’s
bilateral exchange rate that has virtually witnessed no volatility in recent years.
This is also another account (though loosely speaking) of intervention in its
forex market. The Bangladesh Bank’s recent monetary policy statement also
acknowledges that it purchased US$1.48 billion from the inter-bank market in
2008-09.
40 IMF (2007).
40. Box 1: Bangladesh’s Forex Market: The Degree of Sterilisation The
World Economic outlook (2007) of International Monetary Fund
suggested a measure of sterilisation given by:
=+ + ……....(1) mtiM,,2Δti,αti,δmtiNFA,,Δmtiu,,
Where, is the monthly changes in the country I money supply (defined as
M2), in year t and month m, is a constant and are the changes in the net
foreign assets of country I, at time t and month m, and is the error term. In
this case, a value of equal to 0 implies full monetary sterilisation, whereas
a value of 1 represents no sterilisation. mtiM,,2Δ ti,δ mtiNFA,,Δ mtiu,,δ
Following the above methodology (equation 1) we get the following OLS
results for Bangladesh over the period of M1:2002-M4:2009:
= 1.03 + 0.12 + ……….(2) 2MΔNFAΔ u
(7.07) (4.46)
The OLS is statistically significant and the sign are expected. Now we
substitute the parameter (0.12) in the data that gives us a picture of the
degree of sterilisation (see Figure 4). δNFAΔ
Figure 4: Bangladesh’s Sterilisation Index: M1:2002-M4:2009
Source: Author’s calculation
41. 3.8 Reserves Adequacy Measure for Bangladesh
Having discussed the recent trends in Bangladesh’s BoP and its exchange rate
(and sterilisation) policies we now measure the different reserves adequacy
benchmarks for the country based on some international criteria. As discussed
in section II, adequacy of forex reserves is an important parameter in gauging an
economy’s ability to absorb external shocks. The natural starting point is the
reserves to GDP ratio. In Bangladesh’s case, the ratio shows that, since the
fiscal year 2005-06, there has been a significant rise of reserves to GDP, but it
still falls short, albeit marginally, of the standard 10 percent benchmark (see
Figure 5).
Figure 5: Bangladesh’s Forex Reserves to GDP Ratio: 1997-98 to 2008-09
42. Source: Based on Bangladesh Bank.
The other conventional measure is the reserves to import coverage ratio, which
is critical for countries like Bangladesh that have limited capital account
openness. As depicted in Figure 6, the country is now in a position to finance
approximately four and half months of import bills in the event of any unwanted
crisis. This fulfills the benchmark requirements.
In terms of reserves to money supply criteria, Bangladesh has the required level
of reserves. In recent years, the ratio has increased significantly and, of late, it
touched the benchmark 20 percent (see Figure 7). However, its reserves position
is faring well when it comes to reserves to short-term debt ratio which has
gained much currency in reserves literature, particularly countries with a
convertible capital account. Bangladesh’s short-term debt has fluctuated
between 25 to 30 percent in recent years which is much lower than the standard
yardstick of 100 percent (see Figure 8).
Figure 6: Bangladesh’s FX Reserves-Imports Coverage Ratio: 1997-98 to
2008-09
43. Source: Based on the Bangladesh Bank.
Figure 7: BangladeshFXReserves to BroadMoney Ratio:1997-98 to 2008-
09
44. Source: Based on the Bangladesh Bank
Figure 8: Bangladesh’s Shortterm Debt as Percentage of FX Reserves:
1997-2007
Source: Based on World Development Indicators, The World Bank.
45. Figure 9: Reserves Adequacy Measures for Bangladesh and Its Excess
Reserves
Source: Author’s calculation based on Bangladesh Bank and World
Development Indicators, The World Bank
.
Bangladesh’s forex reserves position vis-à-vis the aforementioned criteria are
summarised in Figure 9. It shows that the country’s reserves are higher than the
required level based on reserves to short-term debt and reserves to import
coverage ratio, and fall short as per as reserves to GDP ratio is concerned. Its
BoP position can be a guide in this regard. Bangladesh does not receive a
significant level of FDI or portfolio investment but trade and net transfers are
dominant parts of its BoP. Therefore, it is the current account-related factors of
reserves criteria that are largely relevant for Bangladesh, and based on reserves
46. to import bills, the country’s reserves level is marginally higher than what it
requires.
In summary, Bangladesh’s forex reserves are not substantially higher than
adequate if one considers all the reserves adequacy measures. Hence, based on
these reserves adequacy measures and its BoP position, there is little room to
conclude that Bangladesh’s reserves holding is much higher than adequate or
vice-versa. We will discuss the issue in a holistic framework in the next section.
3.9 The Cost and Benefits of Bangladesh’s Reserves
Accumulation
In this section, we discuss the costs and benefits of Bangladesh’s reserves
accumulation. The direct cost of reserves holding is the spread between one-
year US Treasury and Bangladesh Bank Treasury rates. The returns from
Treasury bonds in Bangladesh are much lower than the yields it receives from
forex reserves, (invested predominantly in the US Treasury), due to the interest
rate arbitrage. As can be seen from Figure 10, the collapse of interest rates in the
US, particularly following the financial crisis, augmented the gap between the
two treasury rates. In recent months, the interest rate on Bangladesh bank
Treasuries has also declined but the spread remained at four to five percentage
points. In crude economic measures, this gap is substantive. If we take
Bangladesh’s reserves to import coverage ratio as an example of the cost of
reserves build-up, it appears that the country has roughly US$3 billion reserves
(equivalent to over its -1.8 months imports bills) in excess, and its cost of
holding excess reserves is roughly US$150 million annually, based on the
interest rate arbitrage between Bangladesh and the US. In a similar fashion, the
total cost of its reserves build-up would be approximately US$400 to 450
million.
47. As discussed in section II, the central bank intervenes in the forex market and
buys foreign currency by releasing domestic currency that eventually sucked out
from market through treasury bonds.
Nevertheless, this cost has to be weighed with benefits of holding reserves.
First, sterilisation reduces prices and exchange rate volatilities. Second, sizeable
reserves reduce sovereign default risk, which is very crucial for Bangladesh
considering the fact that the country is poorly graded for its political
uncertainties. Third, all these factors may in turn induce potentially higher
economic growth. More importantly, reserves could possibly work as a form of
insurance when financially less-integrated economies (like Bangladesh)
expedite their financial sector reforms.
The other fundamental issue is Bangladesh’s exchange rate policy which is
applied to accumulate reserves. As can be observed in some East Asian
economies in 1960s and 1970s and now in China, virtually every instance of
sustained high growth has been accompanied by a significantly depreciated real
exchange rate.44 Rodrik (2007) perceived “undervaluation as a second-best
mechanism for alleviating institutional weakness and market failures that tax the
tradables.” However, to maintain the advantage of a competitive (undervalued)
currency, central banks need support from fiscal authorities.45 If one considers
all the benefits of holding adequate or reserves marginally in excess, the spread
between the two curves in Figure 10 will be substantially lower than it appears.
Figure 10: Trends in the one-year US Treasury and Bangladesh Bank
Treasury Rates: 2004-2009
48. Source: Based on the Federal Reserves Bank of St Louis and the Bangladesh
Bank.
3.10 The Question of Alternative Uses of Bangladesh’s Forex
Reserves
As discussed, Bangladesh’s reserves do not far exceed what it requires. Having
said this, it has two choices to make with these reserves. First, if one assumes
that Bangladesh’s financial sector will not undergo significant reform in years
to come, it could channel part of its reserves to alternative investments. Second,
the country can expedite its financial sector reform using reserves as insurance.
Its integration with the rest of the world in terms of trade is substantive but
financial integration remains very shallow. These two options bring us back to
the fundamental macro disequilibrium (savings > investment) we have explored
in Section III. The widening gap between GNS and GNI signals that
Bangladesh either needs to adopt institutional reforms so that its economy finds
49. a way to use the surplus savings or it must discover an alternative avenue to
utilise them.
Bangladesh’s saving-investment (S-I) gap (thus reserves accumulation)
experience largely coincides with emerging Asia (largely East Asian) which has
been a centre of focus for the last two decades. For instance, from 1996 to 2004,
part of the rise in emerging economies current account surplus was due to the
collapse in investment in Southeast Asia and partly because of the rise in
Chinese savings. The saving-investment gap owing to a drought in investment
in Southeast Asia is well crafted. However, the Chinese case where savings
were rising faster than its investment, remains an open debate as some analysts
think the rise in its savings is tied to the policies China adopted to support its
dollar peg but others highlight the weakness in China’s financial sector and the
lack of a modern social safety net.
46 Nevertheless, the difference between major emerging market economies and
Bangladesh is that the former comprises mostly middle income economies, and
marginal productivity of capital should ideally be higher in the latter, which is
still a low-income country.
Having said this, the first option would be the path that most countries have
adopted historically but it demands a long-term political commitment. Cross-
country experiences show that countries have achieved the intermediate level of
trilemma – staying in the mid-way of independent monetary policy and limiting
exchange rate flexibility, while at the same time facing large and growing
international capital flows – using forex reserves as a buffer, as discussed in
Section II. Bangladesh should follow the path by expediting its financial sector
and other institutional reforms.
The second option is the alternative use of its excess reserves. The question is
where to invest the funds. The yield from the US Treasury is likely to remain
low largely because of the rapid growth in reserves in China and elsewhere in
the world that were partly, if not largely, invested in the US government
50. securities market. This means that Bangladesh has to invest its surplus reserves
to high yield (and high risk) avenues. China and some other countries that have
huge reserves allow outward FDI and acquire overseas resources through SWFs
that help reduce the excessive pressure on their domestic currencies and price
levels. The development of a SWF to acquire foreign assets or similar purposes
is not a viable option for Bangladesh. The reason was not due to its size of
excess reserves. Instead, the country’s bureaucracy does not have adequate
managerial skills to manage such funds. However, it can liberalise the rules
concerning outward FDI, and allow some of its local companies to invest
overseas.
Among other alternatives, one option could possibly be the development of
infrastructure funds that should include private sector – either local or foreign –
stakeholders whereby the government provides funds and the private sectors
offer their technical knowhow. In a similar mechanism, some reserves can be
used to develop a manpower exports fund that deserves some attention
considering the fact that Bangladesh has a huge potential to be a leading
manpower-exporting country in the world. However, such initiatives should be
supported by further research, as the alternative uses of reserves are a tradeoff
between high risk and high return.
3.11 Bangladesh’s foreign exchange reserves top $25 billion
mark
The reserves touched $25.02 billion on Thursday, Bangladesh Bank General
Manager Kazi Saidur Rahman told bdnews24.com.
“The foreign exchange (reserves) is in a strong situation due to a stable growth
in export earnings and remittance”, said Rahman, who heads the central bank’s
51. Forex Reserve and Treasury Management Division.
The reserves were enough to pay import bills for seven months, he added.
According to Bangladesh Bank statistics, forex reserves were $21.32 billion on
June 24 last year.
For the first time in history, the reserves crossed the $23 billion mark on Feb 26
this year.
But, the figure dropped to $22 billion after the central bank cleared import bills
for January-February period amounting $1.01 billion to Asian Clearing Union
(ACU) in the first week of March.
The reserves again crossed $23 billion on Mar 30 and exceeded $24 billion on
Apr 29.
Rahman said $25 billion forex reserves would remain until the first week of
July, when the import bills for May-June period would be paid to ACU.
BB data shows Bangladeshi expatriates remitted some $970 million in the first
19 days of the month (from June 1 to June 19).
The total remittance inflow in the first 11 months of the 2014-15 fiscal is around
$13.87 billion, 7.21 percent higher than the same period of the previous year.
According to Export Promotion Bureau (EPB), export earnings in the July-May
period of the current FY posted a 2.08 percent growth over the previous
corresponding period to reach $28.14 billion.
52. On Dec 10, 2009, the forex reserves were $10 billion before they crossed $15
billion in April 2013.
Of late, there has been a growing interest in Bangladesh on the alternative uses
of its reserves. The country’s reserves are adequate if one considers all the
reserves adequacy measures but not markedly higher than what is required.
Nevertheless, some of the reserves adequacy measures may not be useful for
Bangladesh considering the fact that it does not receive a significant amount of
short-term capital flows, and it is not vulnerable to the “sudden stop” of
weakness in China’s financial sector and the lack of a modern social safety net.
Nevertheless, the difference between major emerging market economies and
Bangladesh is that the former comprises mostly middle income economies, and
marginal productivity of capital should ideally be higher in the latter, which is
still a low-income country.
Having said this, the first option would be the path that most countries have
adopted historically but it demands a long-term political commitment. Cross-
country experiences show that countries have achieved the intermediate level of
trilemma – staying in the mid-way of independent monetary policy and limiting
exchange rate flexibility, while at the same time facing large and growing
international capital flows – using forex reserves as a buffer, as discussed in
Section II. Bangladesh should follow the path by expediting its financial sector
and other institutional reforms.
The second option is the alternative use of its excess reserves. The question is
where to invest the funds. The yield from the US Treasury is likely to remain
low largely because of the rapid growth in reserves in China and elsewhere in
the world that were partly, if not largely, invested in the US government
securities market. This means that Bangladesh has to invest its surplus reserves
to high yield (and high risk) avenues. China and some other countries that have
53. huge reserves allow outward FDI and acquire overseas resources through SWFs
that help reduce the excessive pressure on their domestic currencies and price
levels. The development of a SWF to acquire foreign assets or similar purposes
is not a viable option for Bangladesh. The reason was not due to its size of
excess reserves. Instead, the country’s bureaucracy does not have adequate
managerial skills to manage such funds.48 However, it can liberalise the rules
concerning outward FDI, and allow some of its local companies to invest
overseas.
Among other alternatives, one option could possibly be the development of
infrastructure funds that should include private sector – either local or foreign –
stakeholders whereby the government provides funds and the private sectors
offer their technical knowhow. In a similar mechanism, some reserves can be
used to develop a manpower exports fund that deserves some attention
considering the fact that Bangladesh has a huge potential to be a leading
manpower-exporting country in the world. However, such initiatives should be
supported by further research, as the alternative uses of reserves are a tradeoff
between high risk and high return.
54. Chapter 4
Impact of Foreign Exchange and Remittances on
Bangladesh Development
55. 4.1 Introduction
For any developing country, remittances can be a critical tool, assisting not only
with local, grass-roots development but also contributing significantly to a
country’s entire economic health. In part, remittances can build foreign currency
reserves, address balance of payments deficits, and enable investment in
projects involving infrastructure, health, sanitation, and education. Bangladesh
benefits tremendously from the support of its diaspora, particularly from its
rural population who have migrated in search of temporary employment in the
Middle East. Often equivalent to at least 50 percent of the recipient’s monthly
income, remittances improve quality of life, enhance health and nutrition, and
fund investment in local economies. Although remittances to Bangladesh bring
into question existing foreign exchange controls and create possible challenges
to the country’s existing anti–money laundering and countering the financing of
terrorism (AML/CFT) regime, these funds are undoubtedly positive for the
recipients and the Bangladesh economy.
56. Adequate foreign exchange reserves are an important factor of any well-
managed economy. These reserves help cushion the effects of economic shocks,
domestic or international. The significance of reserves can be demonstrated by
the manner in which countries such as Indonesia are currently dealing with the
impact of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to reduce its bond-buying
program, used to support the U.S. economy during the recent financial crisis. By
building its foreign reserves when it had the opportunity, Indonesia is able to
provide vital support to its economy during this current period of stress. In the
view of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Bangladesh’s foreign reserve
position is lower than it should be, with the country’s foreign exchange control
regime exacerbating this situation as reserves are drawn down to cover the
widening current account deficit.
57. 4.2 Bangladesh’s Current Foreign Exchange Regime
Bangladesh achieved notable economic growth while under the leadership of
Prime Minister Shek Hasina, but its foreign exchange controls appear restrictive
in comparison to peer group countries. These controls may present the country
with complex challenges, such as a widening balance of payments deficit, a
shortage of foreign currency reserves, and moribund export growth as it seeks to
lead its economy toward “middle income” status consistent with the
government’s 2013 “Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP).”
Bangladesh maintains a number of foreign exchange restrictions on payments
and transfers that are not consistent with international standards, as determined
by the IMF. For example, the Bangladesh birr is not freely convertible because
the exchange rates are set by the government. Additionally, Bangladesh limits
foreign currency inflows and outflows and the amounts that local and foreign
individuals and corporations can hold. These restrictions result in foreign
exchange rate appreciation, leading to a widening of the current account deficit.
This deficit is further driven upward by the significant imbalance between
public capital inflows and moribund export growth, which has been stifled by
the strength of the local currency and underdevelopment of private sector
banking and manufacturing. In turn, this reduces real income for many workers,
with a resulting negative effect on consumer spending. Furthermore, domestic
production is suppressed as the strength of the birr allows for the cheap import
of substitute goods, reducing domestic production incentives. It would be unfair
to lay all these factors entirely at the door of the national foreign exchange
control regime, but this policy clearly does not help.
58. Furthermore, Bangladesh’s foreign exchange reserves have suffered before as a
result of the Central Bank of Bangladesh’s (BB) strategy of using the sale of
foreign reserves to withdraw excess liquidity from the domestic market. It
would generally seem more appropriate to achieve this goal via the issuance of
government securities rather than deplete an important resource for managing
the country’s foreign exchange rate in support of economic growth.
59. This lack of available foreign reserves is compounded by the government’s
rigorous control of foreign exchange movement into and out of the country. The
government is pursuing a policy that artificially inflates the value of the birr and
hinders investment, economic growth, and development. This is illustrated in
comments made in June 2013 by Donald Yamamoto, acting assistant secretary
of the U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of South Asian Affairs, when he noted
that a shortage of foreign exchange discourages U.S. firms and foreign investors
from contributing to the Bangladesh economy. Similarly, the IMF asserts that
exchange rate flexibility is essential to ensure competitiveness of traded goods,
which is critical in reaching the Bangladesh government’s GTP targets.
Another example of the adverse impact of foreign exchange controls on the
Bangladesh economy is the extent to which immigrant workers entering
Bangladesh from countries such as China are believed to bring foreign currency
with them in excess of NBE regulations. Their expenditures drive up the price
of goods and services. A more open foreign exchange regime would likely
translate into a reduced need for foreign currency to be smuggled into the
country. Regional inflation might also be less severe, although high-spending
immigrant workers will have an impact on prices in the areas where they live.
Foreign exchange controls may increase money laundering and terrorism
financing risks for Bangladesh when individuals, particularly immigrant
workers, and businesses seeking to operate internationally need to find
alternative means of managing their foreign exchange needs. These alternative
means are difficult for the authorities to monitor and track. At a more individual
level, foreign exchange controls limit the ability of a population to travel
overseas, an important component of international trade and business
development that is needed in order to boost a country’s exports and secure the
resulting foreign exchange, trade deficit reduction, and overall economic
benefits.
60. 4.3 The Importance of Remittances to Bangladesh
Remittances are a significant contributor to the Bangladesh economy and can
help accelerate the country’s development. IMF data suggest that remittances
and official transfers represent more than percent of Bangladesh gross domestic
product, with estimates of remittance values ranging from $18 million to $30
billion. This range partly reflects the difficulty in measuring these flows due to
the significant use of informal remittance channels as a result of an
underdeveloped banking industry and, likely, the tight foreign exchange control
regime that the country imposes. It also highlights the size of the potential
AML/CFT risk stemming from the significant use of informal value transfer
systems.
BB data indicate that imports surged 87 percent between 2011/2012 and
2013/2014, with half of the required funding for these imports coming from
“Private Transfers,” including remittances, whereas less than 20 percent was
covered by export earnings. Thus, although these remittances have an important
personal value to the recipients, they play a critical role in Bangladesh
development.
Another important national aspect to remittance receipts is the positive
contribution they could make to the weak national foreign exchange reserve
position. The ability of remittances and other transfers into the country to
bolster the nation’s financial position
The country’s foreign exchange control regime risks hindering broad economic
development and is likely reducing the value of remittance flows because the
overvaluation of the birr corresponds to the undervaluation of foreign currency
remittances once they are converted into birr for use by the intended recipients.
61. One final point to highlight is the importance of data in assessing economic
development and the impact of various governmental actions. The collection
and analysis by governments of quality economic, demographic, and social data
are often key to development. Without reliable, regular, and consistent data
collection, it is very difficult for a government to judge the effectiveness of its
policies or determine its next actions.
4.4 AML/CFT Considerations
The BB applies customer due diligence standards across all banks and
supervises the financial sector’s compliance activities as required by law.
Bangladesh Financial Intelligence Centre (FIC) began receiving cash
transaction reports (CTRs) and suspicious transaction reports (STRs) from the
banking community in January 2012.With regular AML/CFT trainings being
led by the FIC, Bangladesh is taking important steps in improving compliance
with the recommendations established by the Financial Action Task Force
(FATF) with the goal of being removed from FATF’s list of jurisdictions
subject to on-going global AML/CFT compliance processes.
Bangladesh is also the subject of observation from the U.S. State Department.
Acknowledging in its 2013 narcotics control strategy report that Bangladesh is
not currently a regional financial center due to underdeveloped financial
systems and governmental controls such as the restrictive foreign exchange
regime, the State Department highlighted that Bangladesh’s central and
dominant position within the Horn of Asia means that it is vulnerable to
financial activities related to transnational crime, terrorism, and narcotics
trafficking. Bangladesh can benefit from the crossroads position it occupies, but
as the country becomes more open and continues its economic growth, it is
likely that crime related to illicit finance will rise. It is important that
62. Bangladesh prepares itself for the inevitable AML/CFT challenges that will
come.
The greatest AML/CFT risk facing Bangladesh is remittance flows, partially
encouraged by the structures of the country’s foreign exchange regime, entering
the country and the economy via unregulated routes that are difficult for the FIC
and other authorities to monitor and assess.14 In combination with a private
sector banking liberalization process, a less restrictive foreign exchange regime
is likely to encourage remittances to flow in greater volume through the
regulated financial sector, thus reducing AML/CFT risk.
At the same time, the FIC will need to ensure that the improved standards of
training and reporting that it is instilling in banks and their employees are
maintained and keep pace with the likely increase in financial volume. In
addition, the FIC will need to boost its own capacity to deal with the inevitable
rise in CTR and STR filings.
64. 5.1 Introduction
Shahjalal Islami Bank Limited, a Shariah Based Commercial Bank in
Bangladesh was incorporated as a Public limited company on 1st April, 2001
under Companies Act 1994. The Bank commenced commercial operation on
10th May 2001 by opening its 1st branch, i.e. Dhaka Main Branch at 58,
Dilkusha, Dhaka obtaining the license from Bangladesh Bank, the Central Bank
of Bangladesh. Now its Head Office is situated at Uday Sanz, 2/B Gulshan
South Avenue, Gulshan-1, Dhaka1212, Bangladesh. Presently the total number
of branches stood at 93.
5.2 Background of SJIBL
Bangladesh is one of the largest Muslim countries in the world. The people of
this country are deeply committed to Islamic way of life as enshrined in the
Holy Qur’an and the Sunnah. Naturally, it remains a deep cry in their hearts to
fashion and design their economic lives in accordance with the precepts of
Islam.
The establishment of Shahjalal Islami Bank Limited (SJIBL) on 2001 is the true
reflection of this inner urge of its people, which started functioning with effect
from 10th May 2001. It commenced its commercial operation in accordance
with principle of Islamic Shariah on the 10th May 2001 under the Bank
Companies Act, 1991. It is committed to conduct all banking and investment
activities on the basis of interest-free profit-loss sharing system. In doing so, it
has unveiled a new horizon and ushered in a new silver lining of hope towards
materializing a long cherished dream of the people of Bangladesh for doing
their banking transactions in line with what is prescribed by Islam. With the
65. active co-operation and participation of Islamic Development Bank (IDB) and
some other Islamic banks, financial institutions, government bodies and eminent
personalities of the Middle East and the Gulf countries, Islami Bank Bangladesh
Limited has by now earned the unique position of a leading private commercial
bank in Bangladesh. Shahjalal Islami Bank Limited” offers the full range of
banking services for personal and corporate customers, covering all segments of
society within the framework of Banking Company Act and rules and
regulations laid down by our central bank. Diversification of products and
services include Corporate Banking, Retail Banking and Consumer Banking
right from industry to agriculture, real estate to software and is backed by the
latest technology.
The Bank is managed by a Team of professional Executives and Officials
having profound banking knowledge & expertise in different areas of
management and operation of Banks. During the short span of time, Shahjalal
Islami Bank so far introduced a good number of attractive deposit products to
broaden the resource base and also Investment products to deploy the deposit
resources so mobilized. Some more schemes covering the deposits, Investments
& Services will be introduced gradually in near future suiting to the taste and
requirement of the clients. The Bank has a strong Shariah Council consisting of
prominent Ulama, Fuquah & Economists who meet periodically to confer
decisions on different Shariah issues relating to Banking Operation & to address
them and to give necessary guidance to the management on Shariah Principle.
Since inception, Bank has been performing in all the sectors i.e. general
Banking, Remittance, Import, Export & Investment. All our branches are fully
computerized having on line Banking facility for the clients.
During last nine years SJIBL has diversified its service coverage by opening
new branches at different strategically important locations across the country
offering various service products both investment & deposit. Islamic Banking,
66. in essence, is not only INTEREST-FREE banking business, it carries deal wise
business product thereby generating real income and thus boosting GDP of the
economy. Board of Directors enjoys high credential in the business arena of the
country, Management Team is strong and supportive equipped with excellent
professional knowledge under leadership of a veteran Banker Mr. Farman R.
Chowdhury
5.3 Corporate Profile
Company Profile in Brief
Name Shahjalal Islami Bank Limited
Chairman A.K. Azad
Managing Director Farman R. Chowdhury
Registered Office
2/B, Uday Sanz,, Gulshan South
Avenue,
Gulshan-1,Dhaka-1216
Auditors M/S. Syful Shamsul Alam & Co
Tax Advisor M/S K.M Hasan & Co.
Legal Advisor Hasan & Associates
67. 5.4 Vision of Shajalal Islami Bank Limited
Legal Status Public Limited Company.
Nature of Business
Commercial, Corporate,
Investment & Retail Banking
First meeting of the promoters held on 4th September, 2000.
Date of Certificate of Incorporation 1st April, 2001.
Date of Certificate of Commencement
of Business
1st April, 2001.
Banking License received on 18th April, 2001.
First Branch License received on 24th April, 2001
Inauguration held on 10th May, 2001.
Authorized Capital Tk.80.00 crore.
Paid up Capital Tk.20.50 crore.
Number of Branches (as on 20.06.2010)52
Telephone No. 88-02-9570812, 7160591
Fax No. 88-02-9570809, 9553562
Website www.shahjalalbank.com.bd
68. To be the unique modern Islami Bank in Bangladesh and to make significant
contribution to the national economy and enhance customers’ trust & wealth,
quality investment, employees’ value and rapid growth in shareholders’ equity.
5.5 Mission of Shajalal Islami Bank Limited
To expand Islamic banking through welfare oriented banking system, ensure
equity and justice in economic activities, extend financial assistance to poorer
section of the people and achieve balanced growth & equitable development.
To provide quality services to customers.
To set high standards of integrity.
To make quality investment.
To ensure sustainable growth in business.
To ensure maximization of Shareholders’ wealth.
To extend our customers innovative services acquiring state-of-the-art
technology blended with Islamic principles.
To ensure human resource development to meet the challenges of the
time.
5.6 Objectives of Shajalal Islami Bank Limited
From time immemorial Banks principally did the functions of moneylenders or
“Mohajans” but the functions and scope of modern banking are now-a-days
very wide and different. They accept deposits and lend money like their
ancestors, nevertheless, their role as catalytic agent of economic development
encompassing wide range of services is very important. Business commerce and
industries in modern times cannot go without banks. There are people interested
to abide by the injunctions of religions in all sphere of life including economic
activities. Human being is value oriented and social science is not value-neutral.
69. Shahjalal Islami Bank believes in moral and material development
simultaneously. “Interest” or “Usury” has not been appreciated and accepted by
“the Tawrat” of Prophet Moses, “the Bible” of Prophet Jesus and “the Quran” of
Hazrat Muhammad (sm).
Efforts are there to do banking without interest Shahjalal Islami Bank Limited
avoids “interest” in all its transactions and provides all available modern
banking services to its clients and want to contribute in both moral and material
development of human being. No sustainable material well being is possible
without spiritual development of mankind. Only material well-being should not
be the objective of development. Socio-economic justice and brotherhood can
be implemented better in a God-fearing society.
Other objectives of Shahjalal Islami Bank include:
To establish interest-free and welfare oriented banking system.
To help in poverty alleviation and employment generations.
To contribute in sustainable economic growth.
To remain one of the best banks in Bangladesh in terms of profitability
and assets quality.
To earn and maintain a ‘Strong’ CAMEL Rating
To ensure an adequate rate of return on investment.
To maintain adequate liquidity to meet maturing obligations and
commitments.
To play a vital role in human development and employment generation.
To develop and retain a quality work force through an effective Human
Resources Management System.
To pursue an effective system of management by ensuring compliance to
ethical norms, transparency and accountability at all levels
70. 5.7 Feature of Shahjalal Islami Bank Ltd.
There are many reasons behind the better performance of Shahjalal
Islami Bank Ltd. then other newly established banks:
The inner environment of all branches is well decorated
The Bank provide loan to customers with easy and
flexible condition then the other do
L/C commissions and other charges are relatively low
then other banks
The bank has established correspondent relationship
with many foreign banks.
71. CHAPTER SIX
Foreign Trade Situation
6.1 Export
Total exports in Aggregate exports increased by 11.70 percent in FY14 to USD
30176.8 million from USD 27,027.4 million in FY13. Apparels (woven
72. garments and knitwear products) continued to occupy an overwhelming (above
four fifths) share of the export basket in FY14. Readymade garments (woven
and knitwear): Export earnings from woven and knitwear products, which
accounts for about 81.20 percent of total export earnings, registered as increase
from USD 21,515.80 million in FY13 to USD 24,491.90 million in FY14.
Woven and knitwear products showed the growth of 12.70 percent and 15.00
percent respectively in FY14 compared to FY13. Export earnings from leather
and leather products increased by 32.80 percent to USD 745.60 million in FY14
from USD 561.30 million in FY13.
6.2 Import
Import payments increased to USD 36,571.0 million in FY14 from USD
33,576.0 million in FY13 registering a growth of 8.90 percent. Except crude
petroleum and fertilizer, import bills of all other imports increased in FY14
compared to FY13. Import of food grain and other food items significantly grew
by 101.80 percent and 31.00 percent respectively. This was mainly due to rise in
wheat import. The import bill for food grains stood at USD 1,465 million in
FY14 compared to USD 726 million in FY13. The import bill for other food
items increased to 4,098 million in FY14 from USD 3,128 million in FY13.
Consumer and intermediate goods import increased by 11.40 percent to USD
1,8602 million in FY14 from USD 16,694 million in FY13. Import of capital
goods and others items registered a growth by 23.20 percent from USD 11,031
million in FY13 to USD 13,592 million in FY14. Imports by EPZ increased by
18.80 percent to USD 2,975 million in FY14 compared to USD 2,505 million in
FY13.
6.3 Remittances
73. Remittances recorded 1.56 percent decrease in FY14. The net outcome of all
these, is a fall in the current account balance from USD 2,388 million in FY13
to USD 1,346 million in FY14. Current account balance as a percentage of GDP
stood at 0.77 in FY14 compared to 1.59 in FY13. Decline in overall remittance
inflow was underwritten by a fall in remittances originating from the major
sources. Indeed, remittance inflow from six major Middle East countries, which
accounted for about two-thirds of total remittance inflow, declined by 16.2 per
cent compared to the previous year. During July-April period of FY14, the
decline in remittances inflow was higher in Taka terms (-) 7.9 per cent than in
USD terms (-) 4.8 per cent. High growth of remittances helped the per capita
GNI to grow faster than that of per capita GDP.
6.4 Balance of Payments
The balance of payments of the country, observed a favorable situation because
of stellar export performance. At the same time imports have also picked up
recording 10.70 per cent growth, corresponding to the enhanced export-related
import demand. The overall balance of payments registered a surplus of USD
5,483 million in FY14, implying a slight decline from the preceding year.
6.5 Broad Money
Broad Money (M2) grew by 16.10 percent in FY14 against the targeted growth
and 16.70 percent actual growth in FY13. The growth of broad money decline
due to mainly to the lower growth of net foreign assets and public sector credit
in FY14.
74. 6.6 Domestic Credit
The growth in public sector credit stood at 8.8 percent against the target 22.9
percent growth and 11.1 percent actual growth in FY13. Credit to the public
sector declined due to higher non-bank borrowing of the government through
sale of national saving certificates which was Tk.117.07 billion in FY14
compared with Tk. 7.73 billion in FY13. Credit to the private sector recorded
12.30 percent growth against the target growth of 16.50 percent in FY14 but
remained marginally higher than the actual growth of 10.80 percent in FY13.
6.7 Monetary Policy
Monetary targets for FY14 are on track establishing the credibility of the stance
taken in the previous Monetary Policy Statements. At the end of FY13, due to
nationwide continuous seize and turmoil situation in politics FY14 had faced a
different set of challenges in economy. Robust foreign remittance and export
growth along with sluggish import growth led to a sharp growth of Net Foreign
Assets (NFA) which needed to be sterilized. Moreover declining inflation and
concerns over a slowdown in growth created space for a 50 basis point rate cut
by Bangladesh Bank in June 2014 influencing bank lending rates downwards.
At the same time the January 2014 MPS set out a monetary program consistent
with bringing average inflation down to the targeted 7.0% level and in June
2014 it reached 7.35%. Reserve money growth and growth of net domestic
assets of Bangladesh Bank remained within program targets. Foreign currency
reserve balance has been increased to 21.6 billion in June 2014 by 2.8 billion.
Broad money growth was also close to program targets. The introduction of
new foreign currency borrowing facilities by Bangladesh Bank partially
compensated to general investor as some consumers switched to lower cost
75. overseas financing with overall private sector credit growth, from both local and
foreign sources, amounting to 15.70% in May 2014.
6.8 Foreign Exchange Business of SIBL
Total Foreign Exchange Business handled during the year 2014 was Tk.
163,674 million as against Tk. 169,318 million of 2013, registering a decrease
of Tk. 5,644 million, i.e. 3.33% negative growth. The brief particulars of
Foreign Exchange Business are given below
Particular Amount in Million Taka Growth Composition
2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013
Import 83731 81926 2.20% 26.75% 51.16% 48.39%
Export 76734 84809 -9.52% 23.45% 46.88% 50.09%
Foreign Remittance 3209 2583 24.24% 11.75% 1.96% 1.53%
Total 163674 169318 -3.33% 24.93% 100.00% 100.00%
Import
Export
Foreign Remittance
76. Foreign Exchange Trade 2014
6.8.1 Foreign Exchange Risk indicator
Bank’s exposure to Foreign Exchange risk is managed by computing foreign
exchange transaction and translation risks and their impact to the income of the
Bank. The impact of the Foreign Exchange transaction risk is identified by
providing exchange rate shocks to the net open position of the Bank.
6.8.2 Foreign Exchange Risk
Foreign Exchange Risk is the current or prospective risk to earnings and
capital arising from adverse movements in currency exchange rates.
Foreign exchange risk may also arise as a result of exposures of banks to
profit rate risk arising from the maturity mismatches of foreign currency
positions.
The Bank has established Risk Tolerance limits for foreign exchange
exposure within the directives of Central Bank of Bangladesh in order to
ensure that any adverse exchange rate movements on the results of the
Bank due to
6.9 SJIBL Foundation
