Trumping of Politics: Exploring the Rise of Extremism in Political Discourse
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Theere has been a disturbing rise in extremist views in western politics in the last two years. From Poland and Austria to the U.S. and UK, extremism from both left and right has attracted unprecedented levels of support. This presentation explores the reasons for this rise, and suggests that to avoid a major conflict in the future, people with centrist views must be more involved and assertive in defence of the mainstream.
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Trumping of Politics: Exploring the Rise of Extremism in Political Discourse
- 1. The Trumping of the World Exploring Insanity in Political Discourse Marshall Manson 5 May 2016
- 13. What’s behind this rise of wing- nuttery?
- 14. “Everything we depend on to preserve both social stability and cherished values, including the rule of law, civil liberties, and free markets, is coming unraveled.”
- 19. “It seems entirely possible that a candidate for president...could make his…way through a primary season without answering a single tough question.”
Editor's Notes
- Segue from Rory Sutherland film: Rory talked about ‘embarrassingly silly. So, I give you, embarrassingly silly. Hello, Donald… But Donald, it turns out, is just the tip of the iceberg for embarrassingly silly. There are countless other examples as well.
- Sadly, not a new rock band, or even an old crappy one. These are the extremists busily pushing western democracy over a cliff.
- Wing-nut-in-chief. Wing-nut number one. It’s important to note that Donald is basically non-ideological. He’s just feeding on anger, and giving it back. Plus, he’s playing a character – acting different, and thereby standing as a personification of the rejection of the establishment. But he’s just the beginning. There are lots more.
- President Andrzej Duda and Prime Minister Beata Szydło of Poland. Swept to power in surprising election results in November 2015. http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jan/17/poland-rightwing-government-eu-russia-democracy-under-threat
- Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the leader of the ruling Law and Justice party in Poland. The man with the real power in Poland these days. Sort of looks like an evil elf. But his politics are extreme, and extremely paranoid.
- Norbert Hofer – presidential candidate for the ‘Freedom Party’ in Austria. Leads the voting after the first round of elections last week. Defied polling predictions. Carries a glock 9mm handgun to protect himself from immigrants.
- Heinz-Christian Strache – Head of the Austrian Freedom Party. Wants to toss aside 75 years of centrist, often coalition, rule in Austria.
- Gabor Vona, president of Jobbik party, talks about the party program in front of their party candidate Lajos Rig's poster in Ajka on April 9, 2015 during an electoral campaign meeting. 12 April -- Hungary Radical Party Wins By-Election in Breakthrough Vote. Hungary already has a right wing extremist in power. These guys are even more extreme.
- Marine le Pen, leader of the National Front in France. In 2015, came within a hairs breath of winning control of regional assemblies in France for the first time. Only mass tactical voting at the run-off stage prevented it. But, there was a more important story: “The mainstream parties are breathing easier, reassured by the notion that the French are still not ready to trust the National Front with the business of governing the country, or even any of its regions. But Le Pen’s electoral strategists will be looking at different signals, and finding plenty of encouragement. The main one is the National Front’s total vote tally in the election’s second round — which, at nearly 7 million, represents a clear increase not just on its first-round score, but also on its previous high water mark, in the 2012 presidential election.” http://www.politico.eu/article/why-marine-le-pen-national-front-thinks-it-won-in-france-regional-elections/
- It isn’t just right-wing wing-nuttery. There’s plenty on the left too. Yanis Varoufakis (ex-finance minister) and Alexis Tsipras (prime minister), Greece
- Feel the Bern. An actual socialist attracting mass youth support and winning Democratic primaries across the U.S.
- And of course, the UK’s own extreme leftist. The £3 registration fee and a mass online uprising propelled Corbyn to a shocking win, and even more shocking performance as opposition leader.
- So what’s going on here? End of Big, p2.
- The Nine Sovereigns at Windsor for the funeral of King Edward VII. Standing, from left to right: King Haakon VII of Norway, Tsar Ferdinand of Bulgaria, King Manuel II of Portugal, Kaiser Wilhelm II of the German Empire, King George I of Greece and King Albert I of Belgium. Seated, from left to right: King Alfonso XIII of Spain, King-Emperor George V of the United Kingdom and King Frederick VIII of Denmark. Also attending the funeral: Archduke Franz Ferdinand. Empress Maria Feodorvana, Tsar Nicholas II’s grand mother. Within 30 years, the old order would be totally swept away, through wars and resulting social upheaval that were almost all caused by the establishment.
- So, what’s causing this? Mele calls it Radical connectivity. And there’s an interesting underlying philosophical force at work: Geeks. “A radical individualistic and antiestablishment ideology reminiscent of the 1960s is baked into the technologies that underlie today’s primary communications tools.” – End of Big, p6 “In our arrogance and optimism, we nerds haven’t considered the impact of our designs, nor… the potential for chaos, destabilization, fascism and other ills.” – End of Big, p7
- Society has been atomised. That politics has also been atomised is a predictable result. What are the values that bring us together? “One of the huge changes brought by the printing press and advanced exponentially by the Internet is that people are able to readily pursue different interests and points of view. As a result, they have less and less in common: living within the same political borders is no longer enough to make them countrymen. That's a big change from pre-agricultural times when members of the same tribe had quite a bit – almost everything – in common. But this has been increasingly diluted in the times of the kingdom and the nation-state. If you're honest, you may find you have very little in common with most of your countrymen besides superficialities and trivialities. “Ponder that point for a minute. What do you have in common with your fellow countrymen? A mode of living, (perhaps) a common language, possibly some shared experiences and myths, and a common ruler. But very little of any real meaning or importance. To start with, they're more likely to be an active danger to you than the citizens of a presumed "enemy" country, say, like Iran. If you earn a good living, certainly if you own a business and have assets, your fellow Americans are the ones who actually present the clear and present danger. The average American (about 50% of them now) pays no income tax. Even if he's not actually a direct or indirect employee of the government, he's a net recipient of its largesse, which is to say your wealth, through Social Security and other welfare programs.” Doug Casey http://archive.lewrockwell.com/casey/casey123.html
- Confirmation bias – Most people surround themselves with information passed along by people or from sources that they agree with. This makes political discourse more extreme. It’s a vicious cycle that rewards the most extreme views. Also, smaller groups with strongly held views are more likely to be both noisy and well motivated, so they have a disproportionate affect on the debate.
- So the result… End of Big, p45. – Written in 2013.
- But wait! There’s more. Confirmation bias + radical technology has driven a massive change in the mechanics of politics. https://storify.com/cshirky/republican-and-democratic-parties-are-now-host-bod Parties can’t hold the coalition together by ignoring issues anymore.
- Defending historical coalition is a key cause of establishment failures. Consider the Euro bail out. Or the 2008 mortgage crisis and the resulting financial melt down.
- And to all appearances, it appears that the establishment is no longer particularly interested in serving the public good. The public believes that corruption is rife – even though it probably isn’t.
- So efforts to protect coalitions become self-defeating, as key issues are ignored. Meanwhile, with centrist dialogue removed from the debate, gridlock ensues. Government effectiveness sags – from already pretty bad levels to truly pointless.
- So these days, coalitions can be built – and arguably have to be built – from scratch. That rewards extremism. So supporters go through the door. And as a society, we take our chances.
- Now, it turns out that this sort of societal disruption often follows major advances in communications technology. The French revolution followed widespread adoption of printing of newspapers.
- And Hitler’s rise was certainly aided by the mass adoption of radio and the rise in consumption of news reels.
- But of course, all of these were followed by periods of mass violent conflict. So that’s worrying. And it’s the reason that uncertainty rules the day.
- There’s only one solution. We need to rediscover the middle. People with centrist views need to be more vocal and motivated. There’s a reason to be motivated. The moderates will determine the course of the future. If they do nothing, the future is bleak. But it isn’t too late. Yet.
- Any questions?