During the period of 1–15 November, Indonesia reported its economic growth rate (real GDP growth rate) for 3Q at 5.1%, levelling off from the 5.0% for 2Q. The central banks of Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines decided to maintain their policy interest rates at their respective monetary policy meetings. Retail sales in Singapore were affected by seasonal factors and showed negative growth for the first time in seven months. For more information, refer to the list of macroeconomic indices released over 1–15 November at the end of this report.

1. 01
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends:
Indonesia’s Economic Growth for 3Q Remained Buoyant at 5.1%
By Takashi Kawabata - SPEEDA Chief Asia Economist,
Translated by Yiqing Wang
During the period of 1–15 November, Indonesia reported its economic growth rate (real GDP growth
rate) for 3Q at 5.1%, levelling off from the 5.0% for 2Q. The central banks of Thailand, Malaysia, and
the Philippines decided to maintain their policy interest rates at their respective monetary policy
meetings. Retail sales in Singapore were affected by seasonal factors and showed negative growth for
the first time in seven months. For more information, refer to the list of macroeconomic indices
released over 1–15 November at the end of this report.
Indonesia: Economic Growth Levels Off at 5%
On 6 November, Indonesia reported its economic growth rate for 3Q at 5.1% YoY, which was almost
flat compared with the 5.0% recorded in 2Q. With this in the background, on 15 November, an official
from the National Development Planning Agency (BAPPENAS) said that the target of 5.2% annual
growth as per the revised budget for 2017 might be difficult to achieve. The vice president of Bank
Indonesia (BI) also predicted the full-year economic growth to be around 5.14–5.17% at the end of
October.
20171127
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends:
ASEAN Economy Expected to Exhibit Steady Growth in 2H 2017

2. 02
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends:
Indonesia’s Economic Growth for 3Q Remained Buoyant at 5.1%
A breakdown of the GDP growth rate shows that contribution from private final consumption remained
at 2.7 percentage points, while that from gross domestic fixed capital formation (corporate capital
investment) grew by 1.7 percentage points from 2Q to reach 2.3 percentage points. This is represented
by a significant increase in the value of investment (January–September, actual) into capital city Jakarta,
which jumped by 76% YoY to IDR 74. 8 trillion (USD 5.53 billion), indicating robust investment activities.
In terms of external demand, net exports contributed 0.7 percentage points (exports: 3.4 percentage
points, imports: -2.7 percentage points). Contribution from government final consumption turned
positive to 0.3 percentage points from -1.1 percentage points in the previous quarter. With lowered
interest rates and the resultant economic rebound, the execution rate of the public budget will likely
increase until the end of 2017, leading to a higher contribution share from government final
consumption in the country’s GDP growth.
Furthermore, Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS) revealed that the average monthly wage
of the Indonesian labour force per capita was IDR 2.74 million (USD 202.80) as of August 2017. In
Indonesia, the minimum wage is revised annually by regional wage councils. The revised criteria for all
regions will be determined and announced by the end of this year.
Automobile unit sales in October were registered at 94,461 units, up by 2.5% YoY, with commercial
vehicle sales complementing the sluggish trends in passenger vehicle sales.

3. 03
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends:
Indonesia’s Economic Growth for 3Q Remained Buoyant at 5.1%
Thailand: Central Bank Maintained Interest Rate; Economy Gradually
Recovering
On 8 November, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) held the regular Monetary Policy Committee Meeting, and
decided unanimously to maintain the current policy interest rate of 1.50%.

4. 04
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends:
Indonesia’s Economic Growth for 3Q Remained Buoyant at 5.1%
BOT stated that the decision was appropriate in light of the accelerating economic growth underpinned
by the export of goods and domestic demand compared with the situation in end-September (previous
meeting held on 27 September), as well as the fluctuating inflation rate within the target range of
2.5%±1.5%. That said, despite the growth in the export of goods accompanied by the robust global
economic upturn, and an overall continued improvement in private consumption, the consumption
activities of Indonesia’s low-income class recovered only slowly, and business sentiment amongst
SMEs remained weak.
With these in the background, while the external environment and major companies are exhibiting
favourable conditions, growth for both consumption and SMEs has not yet fully taken off. As a result,
the October Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) stood at 76.7, far below the 100 mark that is regarded
optimistic, despite a continuous improvement for three months. Going forward, attention should be
paid to indices related to private consumption trends.
Indonesia’s Nikkei PMI and Business Confidence Index (BCI) for October was 50.6. Although it dipped
below the 52.2 reported in September, this was primarily affected by temporary factors such as the
funeral ceremony for Thailand’s former monarch King Bhumibol the Great, as well as the flooding
in several parts of the country due to heavy rain. Over the long term, although figures for the
business side only present moderate growth, they continue to stay above 50, which translates
into “improvement”, suggesting a firm trend overall.

5. 05
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends:
Indonesia’s Economic Growth for 3Q Remained Buoyant at 5.1%
Malaysia: BNM Considers Economic Trends to Be Healthy
On 9 November, the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia, BNM) held its regular monetary
policy meeting and decided to maintain the current policy interest rate of 3.00%.

6. 06
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends:
Indonesia’s Economic Growth for 3Q Remained Buoyant at 5.1%
The BNM noted that both internal and external demand showed strong performance, and favourable
exports had a positive influence on domestic demand, as could be seen with the increase in wages.
Investments also remained at a high level thanks to infrastructure projects.
Although the country’s inflation rate is slightly above 4.0% YoY at present, the BNM maintained the
policy interest rate at 3.00% as it projected the inflation rate to stay within the full-year target range
of 3.0–4.0%.
The continuous rainfall during 4–5 November in Penang forced around 3,000 SMEs to suspend
operations. However, most of them restarted operations afterwards, with the impact on the country’s
economic trends being limited.
The Philippines: Japan to Offer ODA for Mega Manila Subway
On 9 November, the Central Bank of the Philippines (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, BSP) held the regular
Monetary Policy Meeting and decided to maintain the current 3.00% policy interest rate.
The BSP said that the decision was appropriate as the inflation rate is expected to stay within the target
range of 3%±1% throughout 2017–18, although it has maintained accelerated growth at over 6% lately.

7. 07
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends:
Indonesia’s Economic Growth for 3Q Remained Buoyant at 5.1%
During the summit meeting between Japan and the Philippines on 13 November, Japan announced
that it would provide official development assistance (ODA) worth around JPY 100 billion (USD 880
million) to the Philippines in early 2018 for the construction of the Mega Manila Subway project. The
financing will be denominated in Japanese yen. Traffic conditions in Metro Manila are said to be the
worst in Southeast Asia, causing significant economic losses as well, so improvements in public
transportation systems are highly desired. The underground system is scheduled to launch operations
by 2025.
Singapore: Retail Sales Need a Closer Watch
Singapore’s September retail sales dipped by 0.5% YoY, a decrease for the first time in seven months.
In the background of this trend are various seasonal factors, including restrained automobile and real
estate purchases during the Hungry Ghost Festival amongst Chinese Singaporeans. Although families
gather together during the holiday and supermarkets showed sound sales performance, driven by
rising demand for food and daily necessities, the sales of automobiles, telecommunications devices,
and computers all reported negative growth. Over the long term, trends in retail sales need a closer
watch, given the slightly weak situation as of late.
For the manufacturing sector, which fuels economic growth in Singapore, the October Nikkei PMI was
reported at 54.2 and the Manufacturing PMI at 52.6, with both denoting a healthy market.

8. 08
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends:
Indonesia’s Economic Growth for 3Q Remained Buoyant at 5.1%
Key Focus in the Next Report
The next report will cover the period of 16–30 November, during which time Thailand, Malaysia, and
Singapore will announce their 3Q economic growth rates. Note that Singapore already released the
preliminary figure in October. Vietnam will also disclose major statistics such as inflation rates mostly
at the end of the month.

9. 09
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends:
Indonesia’s Economic Growth for 3Q Remained Buoyant at 5.1%

10. 10
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends:
Indonesia’s Economic Growth for 3Q Remained Buoyant at 5.1%
Tokyo
Uzabase, Inc.
Ebisu First Square. 10F 1-18-14 Ebisu, Shibuya-ku, Tokyo 150-0013, Japan
+81-3-4574-6552
+81-3-4574-6553
customer@uzabase.com
Singapore
20 Collyer Quay, #23-01, Singapore 049319
+65-6653-8314
customer@uzabase.com
Hong Kong
30/F Entertainment Building, 30 Queen's
Road Central, Central, Hong Kong
+852-5808-3148 +852-3103-1011
customer@uzabase.com
Sri Lanka
48/4/1, Parkway building, Park Street,
Colombo 2. Sri Lanka.
+94-114-232-622
customer@uzabase.com
Shanghai
606, No.1440 Yan’An Rd.(M), Shanghai,
China
+86-21-6103-1677
customer@uzabase.com
©2017 UZABASE, Inc.
About US