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Afghanistan!Presidential!Approval!Rating!Poll!
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November!1,!2014!
Executive!Summary!
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This!survey!intends!to!measure!the!Afghan!public’s!views!towards!their!new!president,!Ashraf!Ghani,!
a! month! after! he! was! inaugurated.! The! poll! of! 2,745! people! across! all! 34! Afghan! provinces,!
conducted!by!ATR!Consulting,!found!that!84!percent!of!the!Afghan!population!is!satisfied!with!the!
performance! of! the! president,!who!was! sworn! into! office! in! late! September! 2014! after! a! lengthy!
electoral! dispute.! The! survey!was! conducted! in! conjunction!with! TOLOnews,!Afghanistan’s! leading!
television!news!source.!The!survey!took!place!Oct.!22L29!and!was!conducted!by!phone!from!Kabul.!
!
How$satisfied$are$you$with$President$Ashraf$Ghani’s$performance?$
!
!
24,1%!
6,2%! 9,8%!
Very!saUsfied! Moderately!
saUsfied!
Not!saUsfied! No!opinion!
Figure!1:!Nationwide!findings!–!October!2014!
!
59,9%!
100%!
90%!
80%!
70%!
60%!
50%!
40%!
30%!
20%!
10%!
0%!
• The!majority! (59.9%)! of! the! Afghan! population! is! very! satisfied! with! the! performance! of!
President!Ashraf!Ghani!indicating!the!overall!public!approval!of!the!new!President!in!office.!
• Nearly!one!quarter!(24.1%)!of!the!population!is!moderately!satisfied!with!the!performance!
of!President!Ashraf!Ghani.!!
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• Negative!opinions!of!Ghani!remain!relatively!low!at!only!6.2%!
• Close! to! one! tenth! of! the! respondents! are! undecided! about! the! President’s! performance!
and!have!no!opinion!at!9.8%.!
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Sample!and!methodology!
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ATR!Consulting! randomly! called!2745!people! across! all! 34!provinces!of! the! country! and! asked! the!
following! question! provided! by! TOLOnews:! “How$ satisfied$ are$ you$ with$ President$ Ashraf$ Ghani’s$
performance?”!The!respondents!could!select!only!one!out!of!four!possible!answers:!‘Very$satisfied’,$
‘Moderately$satisfied’,$‘Not$satisfied$at$all’$or!‘I$do$not$know$/$No$opinion’.!!
!
The!survey!took!place!Oct.!22L29!in!Kabul.!
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ATR! utilized! an! algorithm! to! generate! more! than! 20! million! phone! numbers! at! random.!Mobile!
numbers!were!filtered!on!regional!codes!to!select!for!regions.!Surveyors!then!worked!through!the!list!
to!determine!which!numbers!were!attributed,!interviewing!those!respondents!who!were!willing!to!
give! their! feedback.! To! ensure! the! highest! possible! degree! of! access! to! female! respondents,! all!
surveyors!were!women.!!
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The!delivery!of!questions!was!such!as!to!be!as!impartial!as!possible,!and!negate!any!opportunities!for!
surveyors!to!lead!the!respondent!or!have!a!bearing!on!results!in!any!way.!All!respondents!were!read!
the!question!with!the!exact!wording!including!the!four!possible!answers.!The!confidence!level!is!95!
percent.!The!margin!of!error!for!each!category!is!shown!in!the!chart!below:!
!
Demographic! ! Sample!Size! ! Margin!of!Error!(+/R!%)!
TOTAL! ! 2745! ! 1.87!
Men! ! 1940! ! 2.22!
Women! ! 805! ! 3.45!
Rural! ! 1154! ! 2.88!
Urban! ! 1591! ! 2.46!
Below!29! ! 1017! ! 3.07!
Above!30! ! 1728! ! 2.36!
Kabul!City! ! 527! ! 4.27!
Central!Region!(incl.!Kabul!City)! ! 812! ! 3.44!
Northern!Region! ! 462! ! 4.56!
Eastern!Region! ! 504! ! 4.37!
Southern!Region! ! 470! ! 4.52!
Western!Region! ! 497! ! 4.42!
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Table!1:!Sample!size!and!margin!of!error!by!demographic!
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Given!that!it!is!a!bigger!challenge!to!reach!women!by!phone!in!Afghanistan!rather!than!men,!a!quota!
was! applied! for!men! and! women! in! each! region! (70%!men! and! 30%! women).! Results!were! then!
weighted! first! within! each! region! to! ensure! equal! representation!of!male! and! female! respondents!
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(50%!/!50%).!Nationwide!results!were!then!reached!by!weighting!results!by!region.!according!to!the!
national!population!distribution.*!!!!!
!
Detailed!Findings!
!
CONTEXT!
!
The! survey!was! conducted!approximately!one!month! after!President!Ashraf!Ghani! took!office.!The!
survey!is!scheduled!to!take!place!again!after!the!first!100!days!of!Ghani’s!presidency.!!
!
REGIONAL!RESULTS!
!
Central!Region! Includes! Bamyan,! Daikundi,! Kabul,! Kapisa,! Logar,! Panjsher,! Parwan! and!
Wardak!
Northern!Region! Includes! Badakhshan,! Baghlan,! Balkh,! Faryab,! Jawzjan,! Kunduz,! Samangan,!
SarLi!Pul!and!Takhar!
Eastern!Region! Includes!Khost,!Kunar,!Laghman,!Nangarhar,!Nuristan,!Paktya!and!Paktika,!
Southern!Region! Includes!Ghazni,!Helmand,!Kandahar,!Nimroz,!Uruzgan!and!Zabul!
Western!Region! Includes!Badghis,!Farah,!Ghor!and!Herat!
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*!All!population!data!is!taken!from!the!Afghan!Central!Statistics!Office!2012!data!
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58,1%!
Presiden)al!approval!ra)ng!by!region!
31,5%!
Kabul! Central! North! East! South! West!
3,5%!
8,2%! 7,6%!
6,9%!
56,3%!
29,0%!
5,4%!
11,5%!
9,2%!
80,5%!
57,3%!
24,1%!
7,1%!
29,7%!
20,8%!
13,7%!
1,0%!
14,5%!
4,8%!
55,4%!
9,3%!
54,4%!
100%!
90%!
80%!
70%!
60%!
50%!
40%!
30%!
20%!
10%!
0%!
Very!sa4sfied! Moderately!sa4sfied! Not!sa4sfied! No!opinion!
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Presiden)al!approval!ra)ng!by!gender!
Male! Female!
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24,0%!
6,1%! 11,5%!
6,3%! 7,9%!
58,1%!
24,3%!
Very!sa3sfied! Moderately!
sa3sfied!
Not!sa3sfied! No!opinion!
Presiden)al!approval!ra)ng!by!
se2lement!rural/urban)!
Rural! Urban!
31,0%!
61,7%!
Very!sa3sfied! Moderately!
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60,8%!
22,0%!
6,8%! 10,4%!
57,0%!
4,2%! 7,8%!
100%!
80%!
60%!
40%!
20%!
0%!
100%!
80%!
60%!
40%!
20%!
0%!
sa3sfied!
Not!sa3sfied! No!opinion!
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Presiden)al!approval!ra)ng!by!age!
Under!30! Above!30!
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57,1%!
27,9%!
5,6%! 9,3%!
62,3%!
24,3%!
5,1%! 8,3%!
70,0%!
60,0%!
50,0%!
40,0%!
30,0%!
20,0%!
10,0%!
0,0%!
Very!sa3sfied! Moderately!
sa3sfied!
Not!sa3sfied! No!opinion!
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TOLOnews!commissioned!ATR!Consulting!to!conduct!a! series!
of!presidential!approval!ratings!polls!throughout!the!first!year!
of!President!Ashraf!Ghani’s!office.!ATR!is!an!Afghan!consulting!
firm!established!in!Kabul!in!2012.!!
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The! detailed! methodology! is! available! on! ATR! Consulting’s!
website.!!
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For! all! enquiries! about! the!methodology! and! phone! survey,!
please!contact!polling@tolonews.com!
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