http://profitabletradingtips.com/profitable-trading-tips/will-a-trump-election-lead-to-a-50-stock-crash
Will a Trump Election Lead to a 50% Stock Crash?
As the presidential primary season moves on it becomes more and more clear that Donald Trump may well be the Republican nominee for president of the United States. If “The Donald” should win the presidency what will happen to the markets? cnbc quotes Wedbush saying that stocks will crash 50%.
if donald trump becomes the next president, stocks will fall 50 percent, according to wedbush’s director of equity sales trading.
that’s based on his analysis of the effects trump’s economic policies would have if the gop front-runner carried them out as president.
in making his bold call, ian winer first looks at trump’s proposal to cut taxes on the highest-earnings americans and on corporations, which according to different sources, would reduce government revenue by something in the neighborhood of $10 trillion over the next decade. on the spending side, trump has promised to bulk up the military and bolster the country’s infrastructure, which could lead to increased rather than reduced expenditures.
“without any cut in spending, it’s probably going to require somewhere between 8 and 9 percent gdp growth just to make us neutral,” winer said tuesday on cnbc’s “fast money.”
So, what are the odds that the USA will experience 8 to 9 percent GDP growth? The huge deficit decrease would destroy the US credit position. Deporting 11 illegal aliens would be very costly and would deplete the US labor supply. And the last time the US engaged in a worldwide trade war (Smoot Haley Tariff Act 1930) it led to the Great Depression.
Would the Poor Suffer under Trump?
An additional issue is what increased tariffs would do to the cost of living for America’s poor. This would amount to tax on consumers that by itself could lead to a recession or depression.
2. As the presidential primary
season moves on it becomes
more and more clear that Donald
Trump may well be the
Republican nominee for president
of the United States.
3. If “The Donald” should win the
presidency what will happen to
the markets?
4. Before We Continue…
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6. if donald trump becomes the
next president, stocks will fall
50 percent, according to
wedbush’s director of equity
sales trading.
7. that’s based on his analysis of
the effects trump’s economic
policies would have if the gop
front-runner carried them out as
president.
8. in making his bold call, ian winer
first looks at trump’s proposal to
cut taxes on the highest-earnings
americans and on corporations,
which according to different
sources, would reduce
government revenue by
something in the neighborhood
of $10 trillion over the next
decade.
9. on the spending side, trump has
promised to bulk up the military
and bolster the country’s
infrastructure, which could lead
to increased rather than reduced
expenditures.
10. “without any cut in spending, it’s
probably going to require
somewhere between 8 and 9
percent gdp growth just to make
us neutral,” winer said tuesday
on cnbc’s “fast money.”
11. So, what are the odds that the
USA will experience 8 to 9
percent GDP growth?
19. US News joins in the predictions
by assessing what the world will
look like under President Donald
Trump.
20. the unspectacular truth is that a
trump presidency would probably
be marked by the quotidian work
of so many other presidents
21. trying to sell congress and the
public on proposals while
fighting off not only a culture of
protest but also the usual swarm
of lobbyists who kill any
interesting idea with ads and
donations.
22. trump has a rarefied confidence
in his abilities and, as we
recently learned, in his, um,
manhood.
23. but what he doesn’t have is a
magic wand (insert wand-penis
joke here).
25. the president, as famed political
scientist richard neustadt once
said, has to take an inherently
weak position and use the
powers of persuasion to get
others to do what he wants.
26. If this analysis is correct a Trump
election would not lead to a 50%
stock crash because none of his
nutty ideas would come to
fruition.
27. The three branches of the US
government were devised to
prevent the kind of excess that
Trump proposes.
28. On the other hand do not look to
see an economic rally during a
Trump presidency either, rather a
rather disruptive 4 years before
an adult returns to the Oval
Office.
