European Travel Market | Trends & Prospects | Q3 2015

European Tourism in 2014:
Trends & Prospects
Quarterly Report (Q2/2014)
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2 European Tourism in 2015: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2015)
© European Travel Commission, October 2015
EUROPEAN TOURISM in 2015:
TRENDS & PROSPECTS
Quarterly Report (Q3/2015)
A quarterly insights report produced for the Market Intelligence Group
of the European Travel Commission (ETC)
by Tourism Economics (an Oxford Economics Company)
Brussels, October 2015
ETC Market Intelligence Report

European Tourism in 2015: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2015) 3
Copyright © 2015 European Travel Commission
European Tourism in 2015: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2015)
All rights reserved. The contents of this report may be quoted, provided the source
is given accurately and clearly. Distribution or reproduction in full is permitted for
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websites, this should be done via a link to ETC's corporate website, www.etc-
corporate.org, referring visitors to the Research/Trends Watch section.
The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do
not imply the expression of any opinions whatsoever on the part of the Executive
Unit of the European Travel Commission.
Data sources: This report includes data from the TourMIS database /
http://www.tourmis.info, STR Global, IATA, AEA and UNWTO.
Economic analysis and forecasts are provided by Tourism Economics and
are for interpretation by users according to their needs.
Published and printed by the European Travel Commission
Rue du Marché aux Herbes, 61, 1000 Brussels, Belgium
Website: www.etc-corporate.org
Email: info@visiteurope.com
ISSN No: 2034-9297
This report was compiled and edited by:
Tourism Economics (an Oxford Economics Company)
on behalf of the ETC Market Intelligence Group
Cover: Cityscape of Lucerne with Chapel Bridge, Switzerland
Copyright belongs to Shutterstock/ Mariia Golovianko (Image ID: 284909354)
In memoriam Mr Tom Ylkänen

Foreword
Robust summer demand proved
resilient
Demand for European destinations
continued to surge steadily half-way through
the year and has proved astounding
resilience to current socio-economic
agitations. Data reported so far by European
destinations featured a very positive picture
for the summer period and prospects
suggest a similar performance into this fall.
According to UNWTO, international tourist
arrivals to Europe were up 5% as compared
to the same period last year.
Growth was buoyed by large intra-regional
destinations and the on-going economic
recovery of the Eurozone. Iceland and
Romania continued to enjoy healthy growth
following a 27% and 18% increase
respectively. Slovenia (13%) and Serbia
(13%) also posted sound results. Standout
growth destinations were also Ireland (12%),
Montenegro and Slovakia (both 12%). World
key events also contributed to shape
demand with the Expo in Milan or the
increasing arrivals in Italy and by 6% during
this period (Figure 1).
Northward destinations are facing difficulties
to pick up in terms of arrivals and overnights.
Finland and Estonia dragged the weak start
of the beginning of the year and have been
strongly affected by the slowdown in tourist
arrivals from Russia.
International air passenger traffic continues
to thrive at a steady rate, with RPK up 6.7%
compared to same period last year. Positive
performance is fuelled by a strong dollar
spurring demand from the Americas and
lower oil prices. In the same line, the
accommodation sector also appeared
encouraging, posting healthy results in all
key measures in the first half of 2015.
International tourist arrivals by destination
2015 year-to-date, % per year
Source: ETC, TourMIS
Inbound travel from China by destination
2014, share of each destination’s Chinese foreign arrivals
Source: Tourism Economics

Key intra-European markets continue to boost tourism demand within
the region
Growth in arrivals was also supported by established source markets in Europe which
have evidenced to contribute significantly to the positive performance of many
European destinations. Unsurprisingly, more UK citizens are benefitting from the
strength of the pound against the euro to travel to Eurozone destinations as several
destinations reported growth in arrivals from this market. Visits from France and
Germany, are also mirroring the increase in consumer consumption and an improved
consumer confidence as a result of the region’s ongoing economic recovery.
International arrivals from Russia did not perform differently from Q1 or Q2 with growth
falling by an estimate 18% (non-ETC area incl.) so far this year. The on-going
geopolitical disruptions, the steep drop in oil prices, international sanctions, shrinking
wages and the slowdown of the economy has paved the way for Russian
holidaymakers opting for less expensive destinations. Romania, Montenegro and
Turkey lead as European holiday favourites due largely to affordability, easy access
and to the fact that they cater the sun and beach desires of Russian tourists.
European destinations reported healthy growth in terms of Chinese international
arrivals based on latest data available. Estimated figures indicate that arrivals from
China to Europe increased by 30% so far in 2015. It is expected that the recent market
turmoil in China should have no bearing on tourism demand to Europe as its
expanding middle class continue to travel internationally. The country’s sagging
growth rate, faltering oil and commodity prices and the recent plunge in the Shanghai
stock market suggest that China will endure an economic contraction in the near
future. However the long-term outlook remains positive with growth driven by an
increasing household income spurring travel demand especially to long-haul
destinations. Across the Atlantic, tourism demand from the US remains strong as key
macroeconomic indicators feature positive developments.
European tourism demand in the path to growth as prospects remain
upbeat
At midyear, European tourism continues to grow rapidly, and has proven resilient to
economic woes, geopolitical tensions or threats of terrorism. Far more importantly, the
region was able to offset the sag in arrivals from Russia and is expected to grow by
5% in 2015. Following the success of European tourism during the summer period
efforts should persist to foster tourism and encourage more tourists from long-haul
and intra-regional markets. Success shall be achieved by capitalising on Europe’s
potential to inspire and cater to different markets and travel segments and by
eliminating travel barriers, promoting tourism and working in close cooperation with
public and private administrations and all stakeholders. “Within Europe, we need to
look at our product and our services; we need to share best practice and push deep
cooperation between private and public sector” said Eduardo Santander, Executive
Director of the European Travel Commission.
Jennifer Iduh, ETC Executive Unit
ETC Market Intelligence Commitee

2015 Tourism Performance Summary
So far in 2015 all but a few countries continue to welcome increasing numbers of both
foreign visitors and foreign visitor nights according to data to August. Some of those
destinations which have yet to see growth in foreign visits could be described as
typically winter destinations, and as we move into the winter months some growth
should be expected to follow.
Relative to the US dollar the euro is weaker now than it has been at any other point in
the past decade. This has contributed to price attractiveness for Eurozone
destinations, and cheaper oil, the price of which also currently rests at a ten year low,
has helped boost real household incomes in net importing countries.
Iceland remains one of the top performing destinations so far this year with foreign
visits growing by 26.8% based on the first eight months of 2015 compared to the same
period in 2014.
Visits to Romania also grew steadily by 17.8% in 2015 to August. In the first few
months of this year Romania was one of only two countries which enjoyed visits
growth from Russia. However, this is no longer the case and is likely due to the
worsening relations between the two nations.
Ireland has done well so far this year, receiving 12.2% more visits in the year to
August compared to the same period in 2014. Some proportion of these additional
visits is likely displaced travel otherwise destined for the UK with relative euro
weakness against the pound making Ireland a more attractive option.
Montenegro has also enjoyed steady visits growth in the first eight months of this year,
with 11.9% more visitors than in the same period in 2014. Again, Montenegro was at
the beginning of the year enjoying some growth from Russian visitors. However, this
growth has since faded and in the first eight months of 2015 Russian visits to
Montenegro were down by 9.1%. Given that in 2013 visits from Russia accounted for
over a fifth of all visits to Montenegro, the fact that it has managed to sustain such
strong growth is testament to its broadening appeal as an emerging European
destination.
Despite some concerns that Serbia might be overly reliant on Russian visitors, its
visitor base appears to be broad-based with growth of 12.7% in terms of visits and
15.1% in terms of visitor nights based on data to July compared to the same period in
2014. This cements Serbia’s position amongst the many emerging European tourism
destinations, having enjoyed strong growth in visits and visitor nights for the past
number of years.
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Serbia
Sweden
Norway
Montenegro
Slovenia
Portugal
Slovakia
Croatia
Hungary
Poland
Germany
Malta
CzechRep
Denmark
Austria
Italy
Spain
Luxembourg
Latvia
Lithuania
Switzerland
Estonia
Finland
Cyprus
Foreign visitor nights in select destinations
2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source: TourMIS *date varies (Jan-Aug) by destination
-12.7-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Iceland
Greece
Romania
Slovenia
Serbia
IrelandRep
Montenegro
Slovakia
Hungary
Croatia
CzechRep
Austria
Germany
Cyprus
Italy
Malta
Poland
Spain
Latvia
Switzerland
Lithuania
Turkey
Bulgaria
Estonia
Finland
Foreign visits to select destinations
20.8
26.8

Switzerland’s tourism industry has faltered following the cessation of the Swiss franc’s
peg to the euro, a policy intended to safeguard it from depreciation against the US
dollar. However, this means that a holiday to Switzerland is now relatively more
expensive when priced in euro terms. Although visits grew by 2% in the first eight
months of 2015 compared to the same period in 2014, these visits are becoming
shorter as suggested by a reported fall in visitor nights by 1.6% over the same period.
Estonia and Finland’s recent decline highlight the vulnerability of being overly reliant
on any one source market. However, since these countries tend to be popular winter
destinations, arrivals may rebound as the winter months offer an opportunity to
capitalise on a weaker euro.
Country % ytd to month % ytd to month
Austria 7.0 Jan-Aug 3.6 Jan-Aug
Belgium
Bulgaria -1.1 Jan-Aug
Croatia 8.0 Jan-Aug 6.5 Jan-Aug
Cyprus 6.2 Jan-Aug -12.7 Jan-Aug
Czech Rep 7.5 Jan-Jun 4.3 Jan-Jun
Denmark 3.7 Jan-Jul
Estonia -4.4 Jan-Aug -5.6 Jan-Aug
Finland -7.1 Jan-Jul -5.9 Jan-Jul
Germany 6.5 Jan-Aug 5.5 Jan-Aug
Greece 20.8 Jan-Jun
Hungary 8.5 Jan-Aug 6.4 Jan-Aug
Iceland 26.8 Jan-Aug
Ireland Rep 12.2 Jan-Aug
Italy 5.5 Jan-Jun 3.0 Jan-Jun
Latvia 3.3 Jan-Jun -0.1 Jan-Jun
Lithuania -0.3 Jan-Jun -1.5 Jan-Jun
Luxembourg 0.2 Jan-Aug
Malta 5.1 Jan-Aug 4.4 Jan-Aug
Montenegro 11.9 Jan-Aug 10.9 Jan-Aug
Netherlands
Norway 11.2 Jan-Aug
Poland 4.7 Jan-Jul 6.4 Jan-Jul
Portugal 7.3 Jan-Jul
Romania 17.8 Jan-Aug
Serbia 12.7 Jan-Jul 15.1 Jan-Jul
Slovakia 11.6 Jan-Jul 7.3 Jan-Jul
Slovenia 12.8 Jan-Jul 9.0 Jan-Jul
Spain 4.1 Jan-Aug 2.8 Jan-Aug
Sweden 13.2 Jan-Aug
Switzerland 2.0 Jan-Aug -1.6 Jan-Aug
Turkey -0.4 Jan-Jul
UK 3.0 Jan-Mar
Source: TourMIS, http://www.tourmis.info; available data as of 14.10.15
Measures used for nights and arrivals vary by country
See TourMIS for further data including absolute values.
Tourist Arrivals and Nights
2015 Performance, Year to Date
International Arrivals International Nights

Global Tourism Forecast Summary
Tourism Economics’ global travel forecasts are shown on an inbound and outbound
basis in the following table. These are the results of the Tourism Decision
Metrics (TDM) model, which is updated in detail three times per year. Forecasts are
consistent with Oxford Economics’ macroeconomic outlook according to estimated
relationships between tourism and the wider economy. Full origin-destination
country detail is available online to subscribers.
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
data/estimate/forecast *** d d e f f d d e f f
World 4.6% 4.1% 4.4% 4.6% 4.4% 4.4% 3.7% 4.7% 4.9% 4.6%
Americas 3.3% 8.3% 3.9% 4.3% 4.7% 2.8% 7.2% 4.9% 4.8% 4.4%
North America 3.6% 9.4% 2.9% 4.6% 5.2% 2.1% 7.8% 5.6% 5.7% 4.8%
Caribbean 3.1% 5.2% 5.5% 3.6% 3.6% 4.2% 8.3% 6.4% 6.6% 7.1%
Central & South America 2.7% 6.8% 6.1% 4.0% 3.6% 5.6% 4.8% 2.3% 1.4% 2.5%
Europe 4.8% 2.1% 4.4% 3.8% 3.4% 3.8% 0.7% 3.3% 4.4% 3.8%
ETC+3 4.3% 4.5% 5.1% 3.7% 3.0% 2.3% 3.4% 5.2% 4.8% 3.5%
EU 4.1% 4.5% 5.4% 3.5% 2.7% 2.1% 3.4% 5.0% 4.8% 3.6%
Non-EU 7.2% -5.9% 0.6% 5.3% 6.1% 10.8% -9.0% -3.7% 2.7% 5.0%
Northern 2.8% 3.5% 4.3% 3.8% 3.5% 1.4% 3.3% 6.3% 5.4% 3.8%
Western 3.0% 2.2% 4.2% 3.1% 1.9% 3.9% 2.4% 3.7% 4.5% 3.4%
Southern/Mediterranean 5.6% 7.1% 5.9% 4.5% 3.6% -1.4% 3.6% 6.0% 3.6% 2.6%
Central/Eastern 6.6% -6.4% 2.5% 3.2% 4.9% 9.2% -4.0% -1.4% 3.7% 5.9%
- Central & Baltic 4.8% 4.3% 6.2% 2.4% 3.5% 4.7% 8.2% 8.2% 6.0% 5.0%
Asia & the Pacific 6.3% 5.6% 5.2% 6.7% 6.3% 6.6% 7.1% 7.3% 6.1% 6.3%
North East 3.5% 7.3% 4.0% 7.4% 7.6% 6.3% 7.6% 9.3% 6.1% 6.2%
South East 10.7% 2.8% 6.7% 6.2% 4.9% 8.1% 5.4% 2.9% 6.9% 6.3%
South 7.7% 8.3% 6.6% 3.3% 5.6% 4.9% 11.7% 9.2% 4.7% 7.2%
Oceania 4.0% 5.9% 6.1% 5.5% 3.5% 5.3% 3.8% 1.8% 5.4% 7.4%
Africa 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 4.2% 3.6% 5.6% 1.4% 0.7% 4.1% 3.9%
Mid East 4.2% 9.2% 5.3% 5.5% 5.9% 8.7% 11.4% 8.6% 5.3% 5.1%
* Inbound is based on the sum of the country overnight tourist arrivals and includes intra-regional flows
** Outbound is based on the sum of visits to all destinations
Note: world inbound and outbound do not match exactly in historic data or forecast. This is due to visits to multiple destinations.
For example, one outbound trip may be to more than one destination. Some sample error may also be evident in historic data.
*** d - data reported by national statistical agencies are available for all years to 2014
e - 2015 estimated using all available year-to-date data, and forecasts for the rest of the year
f - forecasts according to Tourism Economics' global economic and tourism forecast models
ETC+3 = ETC members plus France, Netherlands, and UK
EU = Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Greece, Germany, Hungary,
Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia,
Slovenia, Spain, Sw eden, UK
Non-EU Europe is all European countries (listed below ) outside EU
Northern Europe = Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Norw ay, Sw eden, UK
Western Europe = Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Sw itzerland
Southern/Mediterranean Europe = Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Cyprus, FYR Macedonia, Greece, Italy, Malta,
Montenegro, Portugal, Serbia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkey
Central/Eastern Europe = Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia,
Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russian Federation, Slovakia, Ukraine
of w hich
Central Europe & Baltic countries = Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia
TDM Visitor Growth Forecasts, % change
Outbound**Inbound*

Recent Industry Performance
Air Transport
Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPKs)
continue to grow steadily in 2015 with growth
of 6.7% to August compared to the same
period of 2014. And there is little indication
that growth will cease anytime in the near
future, but emerging market weakness
presents a risk.
All regions have contributed to this growth with
the exception of Africa which has dragged on
World growth in all of the first six months of
2015. Lower oil prices are a key factor with
African producers subject to a higher
breakeven price per barrel of oil produced.
This in turn has dampened outbound travel
demand. The ongoing terror threat exemplified
by recent events in Tunisia has many
countries on high alert, and some lingering
ebola concerns may also have been amongst
the chief deterrents. Data for July and August
are positive and could point towards some
recovery from all of the above, if it can be
sustained.
Asia/Pacific has continued to perform well
through the year and it en route to its highest
PRK growth year since 2010. However, there
has been a notable weakening in regional
trade in recent months, which has, and will
continue to stifle some business-related travel.
Travel to and from Europe maintains
momentum based on data to August, up 5.2%
compared to the same period in 2014. This
has been aided by the weaker euro which
would serve to encourage intra-regional travel,
as well as inbound travel from some long haul
markets, namely the US and Canada.
The Middle East RPKs grew similarly over
2014 as 2014 did over 2013 at around 13%.
Industry performance is robust
 RPK continues to grow at a steady rate
 A strong dollar helps boost travel growth between Europe and the Americas
 Some slowdown in the emerging economies has weakened the outlook for
economic growth, but RPK has so far been unaffected
 European accommodation sector is performing well
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Africa Asia/Pacific Europe Latin
America
Mid.East N.America World
May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15
% year
Source: IATA
Monthly international air passenger growth
-5
0
5
10
15
Africa Asia/Pacific Europe Latin
America
Mid.East N.America World
2013 2014 2015 ytd
% year, RPK
Source: IATA
Annual international air passenger growth
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Total
3mth mav
Source: IATA
Icelandic Ash
Cloud Impact
International air passenger traffic growth
% year, Revenue Passenger Kilometers

Data from the Association of European Airlines (AEA) indicated lower European airline
capacity for much of the beginning of 2015 compared to 2014. However this gap
closed towards the end of Q2, remained broadly similar throughout Q3, and in Q4
capacity rocketed to levels in excess of 10% greater than in the same period in 2014.
Although oil prices have stabilised after a lengthy period of decline, until recently
airlines appeared reluctant to add capacity in order to protect fares. Rather than pass
the windfall from lower oil prices onto consumers in the form of cheaper air fares, it
seems airlines have now responded by increasing capacity relative to 2014 levels.
Note, however, that at the same time in 2014, capacity relative to 2013 levels
plummeted. Therefore, the recent increase is likely to restore capacity to not much
above 2013 levels.
Passenger load factor (PLF) appears to be following a broadly similar pattern as in
2013 and 2014, with the exception of an upward deviation in the middle of Q3 when
PLF peaked at a decade high of 89.9%. There have also been some mild
disturbances resulting from strike action.
Travel between Europe and Asia increased at a faster rate than total European airline
passenger growth throughout most of 2014, but slowed later in the year and into 2015.
This was in line with slowing Chinese consumer spending.
Nonetheless, travel growth between Europe and Asia still tended to exceed total travel
growth to and from Europe. On the whole, air passenger traffic between Europe and
the Americas continued to grow at a faster rate than total scheduled travel to and from
Europe in 2015 to date. United States outbound travel to Europe is likely to be
particularly strong, driven by the relative strength of the dollar against key currencies,
(most notably the euro) and by favourable economic conditions in the United States.
Recent analysis by Tourism Economics estimates that the dollar’s recent appreciation
will result in European inbound arrivals being 1.1% higher in 2015 than they would
have been had the dollar retained its 2014 value. This highlights the significance of air
passenger flows between these two regions.
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
Asia Total
RPK, 4 week moving average, % change year ago
RPK = revenue passenger kmsSource: AEA
European airline passenger traffic: Asia
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
Americas Total
RPK, 4 week moving average, % change year ago
RPK = revenue passenger kmsSource: AEA
European airline passenger traffic: Americas
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2013 2014 2015
Weekly load factor, %
Source: AEA
European airlines passenger load factor
-5
0
5
10
15
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2013 2014 2015
ASK, 4 week moving average, % change year ago
Source: AEA
European airlines capacity

Key Source Market Performance
Trends discussed in this section relate to the first eight months of the year, although actual
coverage varies by destination; for the majority of countries July or August will be the latest
available data point.
Further detailed monthly data for origin and destination, including absolute values, can be
obtained from TourMIS, http://tourmis.info.
Key intra-European markets
Montenegro remains as the top European destination for German visitors, reportedly
receiving 44.7% more visitors in the first eight months of 2015 than in the same period
in 2014. Greece also enjoyed a large increase in the number of German visitors it
received, but with only three months of data the longevity of this trend is unclear.
Cyprus and Czech Republic both enjoyed large increases in the number of German
visitors they received, with growth of 34.8% and 15.3% respectively, based on data to
August and June respectively. Czech Republic looks well placed to see even more
growth from Germany as more summer data becomes available, reflecting more high
season air corridors and the higher frequencies at which they operate.
German interest in Switzerland and Bulgaria has continued to deteriorate as the year
has progressed, by 10.1% and 8.4% respectively based on the first eight months of
2015 compared to same period last year. Visits to the UK from Germany also fell by
4% in the first three months of 2015 (the only period for which data is currently
available). Interestingly, neither the UK or Switzerland are in the Eurozone (Bulgaria’s
currency is pegged to the euro), suggesting that the decline in interest is economically
motivated as currency movements have eroded some degree of competitiveness
formerly possessed by these countries.
This is particularly clear in the case of Switzerland. If, for example, its poor
performance is recognised and can trigger appropriate action on the part of Swiss ski
resort hoteliers who could drop rates in a bid to defend market share from their
Eurozone neighbours, then some growth may be salvaged in the winter season.
A strong summer…
 European travel demand continues to grow across the majority of markets
 Lower oil prices and weak euro aid European inbound tourism growth
 Economic slowdown in China a distant worry?
 A strong US and Canadian dollar and a weaker euro have boosted long-haul
travel demand
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Montenegro
Greece
Cyprus
Iceland
CzechRep
Slovakia
Slovenia
Romania
Turkey
Poland
Finland
Latvia
Italy
Croatia
Austria
Malta
Serbia
Hungary
Spain
Estonia
Lithuania
UK
Bulgaria
Switzerland
Visits from Germany to select destinations
35.9
44.7
-10.1
34.8
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Montenegro
CzechRep
Portugal
Finland
Italy
Slovenia
Serbia
Sweden
Lithuania
Croatia
Slovakia
Poland
Latvia
Norway
Luxembourg
Austria
Spain
Denmark
Hungary
Malta
Estonia
Switzerland
German visitor nights in select destinations
59.5
-11.4

Cyprus was the best performing European destination in terms of visits from
Netherlands, enjoying a 41.8% increase based on data to August compared to the
same period in 2014.
Latvia, Lithuania, and Slovakia have all enjoyed a large increase in the number of
visits from Netherlands, aided by an ever-increasing air network linking Western and
Northern Europe with eastern European countries. Based on the first half of the year
(six months in the case of Latvia and Lithuania, and seven in the case of Slovakia)
visits from the Netherlands grew by 33.4%, 17.7%, and 17% respectively, compared
to the same periods in 2014.
Other emerging European destinations such as Montenegro and Iceland also saw
gains in Dutch visits, by 18.6% and 9.3% respectively.
Switzerland and Bulgaria have both lost some visitors from the Netherlands. In the
case of Switzerland this is likely to be linked to the decision at the beginning of the
year the Swiss National Bank made the decision to abandon its three year old cap
against the euro. Interestingly, this cap was imposed in 2011 due to economic and
political instability. Three years later, similar economic and political instability
surrounded the reversal of that decision.
Greece and the UK also saw a declining number of Dutch visitors based on the first
three months of 2015 compared to the same period last year. However, as more data
become available we would expect these falls to subside, and in the case of Greece
likely turn into growth. However, given the relative strength of the pound against the
euro, the UK might struggle.
A majority of European destinations have seen the number of visits received from
France increase in 2015, many of them quite substantially. Greece and Cyprus led the
way in terms of the fastest growing French destinations. In the first three months of
2015 arrivals from France to Greece grew by 94.2%, and to Cyprus by 30.6% based
on data to August compared to the same periods in 2014.
Many emerging destinations, such as Slovakia, Latvia, Iceland, Latvia, Serbia,
Hungary, Romania, and Montenegro, enjoyed double-digit growth in visits from
France. Interestingly, in stark contrast to visits from the Netherlands there was a large
increase in the number of French visits to Greece. However, given data for Greece
only covers the first three months of 2015, some volatility should be expected and
conclusions avoided until more data become available.
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Cyprus
Latvia
Montenegro
Lithuania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Iceland
Poland
Romania
Croatia
Spain
Austria
Germany
CzechRep
Estonia
Serbia
Hungary
Malta
Italy
Finland
Turkey
UK
Switzerland
Bulgaria
Greece
Visits from Netherlands to select destinations
41.8
33.4
-25.3
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Latvia
Slovakia
Sweden
Montenegro
Denmark
Spain
Slovenia
Norway
Poland
Hungary
CzechRep
Portugal
Lithuania
Serbia
Estonia
Germany
Croatia
Austria
Italy
Luxembourg
Malta
Finland
Switzerland
Netherlands nights in select destinations
33.4

Turkey saw falling numbers of French visitors in the first seven months of 2015,
welcoming 17.8% less visitors compared to the same period of 2014. This is an
improvement upon early 2015 performance and further gains may be made as more
summer data becomes available, but full year growth looks unlikely.
Switzerland lost visits from another large European source market in France with visits
down by 7.3% and overnights by 6.4%. Denmark and Turkey are also experiencing
lower French demand.
Lithuania saw a large increase in number of Italian visitors it received in the first six
months of 2015 compared to the first six months of 2014. Montenegro also saw a
large increase in the number of Italian visitors. Both destinations saw some similarly
large increases in the numbers of Italian visitor nights. Malta enjoyed a 13.7%
increase in Italian visits and a 25% increase in Italian visitor nights.
Italian visits to Turkey fell by 21.6% in the first seven months of 2015 compared to the
same period in 2014. Turkey has seen arrivals from many key source markets fall this
year. Part of the reason for this weaker demand is due to the mounting political unrest
and threat of terrorism. Although unlikely, events in Tunisia and Egypt this year will
have put people on guard, and direct threats against Turkey have been made by those
claiming responsibility for some of the attacks carried out in Tunisia and Egypt.
The relative strength of British pound against the euro has made the Eurozone a more
appealing destination for the British visitor. Only non-members of the European
monetary union reported falling visits from the UK and only a minority of countries
reported falls in the number overnights.
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Greece
Cyprus
Slovakia
Latvia
Iceland
Serbia
Hungary
Romania
Montenegro
Slovenia
Finland
Spain
Poland
Lithuania
Croatia
Italy
Malta
Germany
Estonia
Bulgaria
Austria
CzechRep
Switzerland
UK
Turkey
Visits from France to select destinations
30.6
94.2
-17.8
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Cyprus
Serbia
Slovakia
Portugal
Spain
Montenegro
Italy
Hungary
Norway
Latvia
Malta
Estonia
Finland
Sweden
Poland
Croatia
Slovenia
Germany
Lithuania
Luxembourg
CzechRep
Austria
Denmark
Switzerland
French visitor nights in select destinations
50.7
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Greece
Lithuania
UK
Montenegro
Iceland
Slovakia
Romania
Cyprus
Malta
Latvia
Hungary
Slovenia
Austria
Croatia
Spain
Germany
Estonia
Finland
Poland
CzechRep
Bulgaria
Serbia
Switzerland
Turkey
Visits from Italy to select destinations
105
22.5
-21.6
22.0
20.2
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Lithuania
Malta
Montenegro
Portugal
Slovakia
Hungary
Slovenia
Spain
Poland
Croatia
Latvia
Austria
Finland
Germany
Estonia
Luxembourg
CzechRep
Serbia
Norway
Sweden
Switzerland
Denmark
Italian visitor nights in select destinations
71.3 23.8
23.025.0

Despite the pound appreciating upwards of 15% against the Turkish lira, this was
seemingly not enough to offset the perceived higher risk of a holiday to Turkey, with
visits from the UK falling by 0.9% based on data to July compared to the same period
in 2014.
The economic sanctions against Russia, which are due to last until the end of January
2016 at the earliest, is just one factor having a clear effect on travel flows from Russia.
Every reporting destination has recorded falling arrivals from Russia and all but one
has recorded falling nights. Amongst those reporting falling arrivals are some usually
popular Russian holiday destinations such as the Baltic countries, Finland, and
Turkey.
These large falls also reflect the impact of lower oil prices on Russian aggregate
income as well as other political and economic uncertainties which caused the rouble
to depreciate markedly (over the better part of a year) making foreign travel relatively
more expensive for the Russian traveller. The first few months of the year saw the
rouble rally against its key trading currencies (including the euro and the US dollar) but
it began to depreciate again starting in mid-May, stabilising at a record low rate.
Current economic and tourism demand remains well below levels experienced in early
2014 and all indicators still point to a deep recession in Russia this year. An eventual
recovery in tourism demand is possible in 2016 albeit from a very low base.
Greek-Russian relations may yield some benefits for Greece in 2015 as the new
government begins to forge alliances beyond the EU as well as through its lax
imposition of Western-led sanctions against Russia. However, with data from Greece
only available to March for this market, this remains to be seen for this market.
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Slovakia
Greece
Latvia
Montenegro
Iceland
Slovenia
Hungary
Lithuania
Romania
Cyprus
Croatia
Italy
CzechRep
IrelandRep
Poland
Austria
Estonia
Germany
Malta
Spain
Finland
Switzerland
Serbia
Turkey
Bulgaria
Visits from UK to select destinations
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Montenegro
Slovakia
Hungary
Latvia
Norway
Sweden
Slovenia
Croatia
CzechRep
Poland
Estonia
Denmark
Germany
Portugal
Spain
Austria
Malta
Italy
Finland
Luxembourg
Lithuania
Switzerland
Cyprus
Serbia
British visitor nights in select destinations
50.5
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
Montenegro
Serbia
Romania
Slovenia
Cyprus
Turkey
Hungary
Croatia
UK
Bulgaria
Italy
Germany
Switzerland
Austria
Estonia
Slovakia
Spain
Lithuania
Latvia
Poland
Malta
CzechRep
Iceland
Finland
Greece
Visits from Russia to select destinations
-66.9
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
Montenegro
Serbia
Luxembourg
Italy
Hungary
Slovenia
Croatia
Germany
Switzerland
Sweden
Austria
Estonia
Denmark
Cyprus
Lithuania
Poland
Portugal
Latvia
CzechRep
Finland
Malta
Slovakia
Norway
Spain
Russian visitor nights in select destinations
-52.8

Non-European markets
Travel to Europe from the US continues to boom in all but a few reporting destinations,
aided by a strong economy and a strong US dollar relative to its key trading currencies
such as the euro, worth more now than at any other point in the past decade.
Both emerging and mature European destinations have seen arrivals from the US
grow as the stronger dollar and favourable economic conditions make travel to these
destinations more viable than they would have been as recently as a year ago.
Iceland and Montenegro enjoyed strong growth from the US by 53.3% and 32.8%
respectively, based on data to August compared to the same period in 2014. Greece
also reported a 49.7% increase in the number of US arrivals it received. This is based
on data to March, and although not likely to provide any firm indication of likely full
year performance, the strong dollar relative to the euro should ensure some degree of
growth.
Finland was the only country which saw a fall in both US visits and visitor nights based
on data to July. Cyprus also received less US visitors in the year to August, while
Lithuania saw US visitor nights fall by 23.5% in the first half of the year compared to
the same period in 2014. Its historic links with Russia may be partly to the cause.
Many emerging European destinations have seen a large increase in the number of
visitors received from Japan, particularly eastern European destinations such as
Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania, all of which posted visits growth in excess of 30%,
accompanied by similarly strong growth in Japanese visitor nights.
These trends suggest that the export-led growth policy of the Bank of Japan has not
affected travel behaviour as much as feared initially despite the yen’s relative
weakness in international markets as a result of this policy. The number of European
countries that reported a growing number of arrivals from Japan versus falling arrivals
continues to grow.
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Montenegro
Croatia
Luxembourg
Serbia
Estonia
Slovakia
Denmark
Slovenia
CzechRep
Portugal
Hungary
Latvia
Austria
Spain
Poland
Germany
Switzerland
Malta
Norway
Sweden
Italy
Finland
Lithuania
US visitor nights in select destinations
-23.5
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Iceland
Greece
Montenegro
Latvia
Slovakia
Spain
Croatia
Serbia
Hungary
Slovenia
CzechRep
Romania
Italy
Austria
Poland
Bulgaria
Switzerland
Estonia
Germany
Turkey
UK
Lithuania
Malta
Finland
Cyprus
Visits from US to select destinations
53.3
49.7

Outbound travel from China continues to grow in 2015 in terms of both visits and
visitor nights with double digit growth observed in all but a handful of destinations. This
is positive amid concerns of a slowdown in the Chinese economy and industrial
activity and both consumer surveys and retail sales data remain robust. However,
imports are declining, which may eventually come to include some outbound travel.
Travel to Europe as a whole was estimated to have grown by over 17% in 2014 – the
fifth consecutive year of growth from China, and there is no reason that future growth
cannot be safeguarded. The Bank of China and the Chinese government have many,
as yet unused, policy options available should the slowdown get out of hand.
Visits growth from India was broadly positive with many destinations reporting double
digit growth. Hungary and Croatia enjoyed the strongest growth in visits terms, each
seeing respective increases of 75.6% and 70.5% based on data to August compared
to the same period in 2014. They both saw similarly increases in the number of Indian
visitor nights. However, Latvia and Czech Republic both enjoyed greater increases of
115% and 76.6% respectively based on data to June. These four countries occupy the
top ranking spots in terms of both visits and visitor nights growth from India.
Indian arrivals still represent a relatively small proportion of total European arrivals and
some volatility should be expected but with limited impact on overall destination
performance. In the longer-term, growth prospects remain strong with potential
economic reform. Given these positive economic trends, there is clear potential for
India to catch-up with China as an emerging source market.
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40 Latvia
Lithuania
Estonia
Spain
Romania
Slovakia
Italy
Iceland
Bulgaria
Poland
Serbia
Slovenia
Germany
Austria
Finland
CzechRep
Croatia
Hungary
Cyprus
Switzerland
UK
Turkey
Montenegro
Greece
Visits from Japan to select destinations
-81.4
63.4
74.0
-31.5
-37.5
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Lithuania
Latvia
Italy
Slovakia
Estonia
Luxembourg
Slovenia
Norway
Poland
Sweden
Serbia
Portugal
Germany
Croatia
Finland
Austria
Hungary
CzechRep
Spain
Switzerland
Denmark
Montenegro
Japanese visitor nights in select destinations
62.7
47.9
46.7
-36.0
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Slovakia
Lithuania
Serbia
Iceland
Spain
Montenegro
Turkey
Greece
Slovenia
Latvia
Croatia
Austria
Hungary
Germany
CzechRep
Switzerland
Finland
Poland
Romania
UK
Bulgaria
Cyprus
Estonia
Italy
Visits from China to select destinations
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Lithuania
Slovakia
Norway
Serbia
Slovenia
Croatia
Austria
CzechRep
Hungary
Latvia
Finland
Spain
Switzerland
Sweden
Germany
Denmark
Montenegro
Poland
Luxembourg
Estonia
Italy
Chinese visitor nights in select destinations
145.0

Some promising growth from Canada has been recorded by the majority of reporting
destinations, many of which have seen both visits and visitor nights from Canada grow
by double digit rates. Lower World oil prices have made the Canadian dollar weaker
against its US counterpart making a holiday to the US less price attractive.
Conveniently for much of Europe this coincides with a stronger Canadian dollar
against the euro which makes Eurozone destinations more price attractive.
Montenegro, Spain, and Latvia are some of the destinations benefitting from these
currency movements, with each seeing Canadian visits increase by 29.9%, 24.2%,
and 23.8% respectively.
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Hungary
Croatia
CzechRep
Latvia
Austria
Slovakia
Finland
Switzerland
Germany
Poland
Turkey
Spain
Italy
Bulgaria
UK
Montenegro
Visits from India to select destinations
75.6
70.5
62.7
59.2
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Latvia
CzechRep
Croatia
Hungary
Slovakia
Austria
Switzerland
Denmark
Poland
Finland
Sweden
Germany
Montenegro
Italy
Indian visitor nights in select destinations
114.8 72.1
76.6 64.0
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Greece
Montenegro
Spain
Latvia
Slovakia
Slovenia
Romania
Iceland
Croatia
Hungary
Cyprus
Serbia
Lithuania
UK
CzechRep
Italy
Turkey
Austria
Germany
Bulgaria
Switzerland
Poland
Finland
Visits from Canada to select destinations
39.3
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Montenegro
Serbia
Slovakia
Slovenia
Croatia
Portugal
CzechRep
Spain
Hungary
Latvia
Austria
Germany
Switzerland
Poland
Denmark
Italy
Finland
Sweden
Lithuania
Canadian visitor nights in select destinations
51.8
32.6

Origin Market Share Analysis
Based on the Tourism Decision Metrics (TDM) model, the following charts and
analysis show Europe’s evolving market position – in absolute and percentage terms –
for selected source markets. 2015 values are year-to-date estimates based on the
latest available data and are not final reported numbers.
United States
Methodology note:
Data in these charts and tables relate to reported arrivals
in all destinations as a comparable measure of outbound
travel for calculation of market share.
For example, US outbound figures featured in the
analysis is larger than reported departures in national
statistics as long-haul trips often involve travel to multiple
destinations; in 2014 US data reporting shows 11.9m
departures to Europe while the sum of European arrivals
from the US was 23.4m. Thus each US trip to Europe
involved a visit to two destinations on average.
Note: this analysis is based on the Tourism Decision Metrics
(TDM) model. The geographies of Europe are defined as:
Northern Europe: Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Ireland,
Norway, Sweden, UK
Western Europe: Austria, Belgium, France, Germany,
Luxembourg, Netherlands, Switzerland
Southern/Mediterranean Europe: Albania, Bosnia-
Herzegovina, Croatia, Cyprus, FYR Macedonia, Greece, Italy,
Malta, Montenegro, Portugal, Serbia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkey
Central/Eastern Europe: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria,
Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russian Federation,
Slovakia, Ukraine
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
US long haul* outbound travel Rest of Long Haul
Central/Eastern Europe
Southern Europe
Western Europe
Northern Europe
Million
*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North America
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Europe's share of US market
Northern Europe
Western Europe
Southern Europe
% of long haul* market
Level* Share
Annual
average
Cumulative
growth**
Share
2020
Cumulative
growth**
Share
2010
Total outbound travel (000s) 96,072 - 4.8% 26.6% - 26.3% -
of which:
Long haul (000s) 58,170 60.5% 6.2% 35.4% 64.8% 27.0% 60.2%
Short haul (000s) 37,902 39.5% 2.5% 13.1% 35.2% 25.2% 39.8%
Travel to Europe***
Europe (000s) 25,789 26.8% 5.8% 32.4% 28.1% 32.2% 25.6%
Northern Europe (000s) 6,073 6.3% 5.7% 32.2% 6.6% 30.2% 6.1%
Western Europe (000s) 9,374 9.8% 4.5% 24.5% 9.6% 24.8% 9.9%
Southern Europe (000s) 6,862 7.1% 6.4% 36.4% 7.7% 40.6% 6.4%
Central/Eastern Europe (000s) 3,480 3.6% 7.9% 46.3% 4.2% 42.1% 3.2%
** Shows cumulative change over the relevant time period indicated
US Market Share Summary
2015 Growth (2015-20) Growth (2010-15)
* Levels are in 000s unless otherwise specified
*** Shares are expressed as a % of total outbound travel

Canada
Norway, Sweden, UK
Slovakia, Ukraine
Methodology note:
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Canada long haul* outbound travel Rest of Long Haul
Southern Europe
Western Europe
Northern Europe
Million
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Europe's share of Canadian market Northern Europe
Western Europe
Southern Europe
Level* Share
Annual
average
Cumulative
growth**
Share
2020
Cumulative
growth**
Share
2010
of which:
Long haul (000s) 12,363 35.4% 4.5% 24.5% 35.9% 19.0% 33.3%
Short haul (000s) 22,588 64.6% 4.0% 21.8% 64.1% 8.7% 66.7%
Travel to Europe***
Europe (000s) 4,854 13.9% 2.0% 10.6% 12.5% 22.2% 12.7%
Northern Europe (000s) 1,046 3.0% 7.2% 41.4% 3.4% 16.2% 2.9%
Western Europe (000s) 1,826 5.2% 1.5% 7.8% 4.6% 13.9% 5.1%
Southern Europe (000s) 1,718 4.9% -1.1% -5.5% 3.8% 41.9% 3.9%
Central/Eastern Europe (000s) 265 0.8% 2.5% 13.2% 0.7% 2.1% 0.8%
2015 Growth (2015-20) Growth (2010-15)
Canada Market Share Summary

Mexico
Norway, Sweden, UK
Slovakia, Ukraine
Methodology note:
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mexico long haul* outbound travel Rest of Long Haul
Southern Europe
Western Europe
Northern Europe
Million
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Europe's share of Mexican market
Northern Europe
Western Europe
Southern Europe
Level* Share
Annual
average
Cumulative
growth**
Share
2020
Cumulative
growth**
Share
2010
of which:
Long haul (000s) 2,879 13.6% 4.2% 23.0% 13.4% 73.4% 10.9%
Short haul (000s) 18,244 86.4% 4.6% 25.5% 86.6% 34.2% 89.1%
Travel to Europe***
Europe (000s) 1,513 7.2% 1.9% 9.9% 6.3% 76.2% 5.6%
Northern Europe (000s) 106 0.5% 2.3% 12.1% 0.4% 49.9% 0.5%
Western Europe (000s) 634 3.0% 4.3% 23.7% 3.0% 49.7% 2.8%
Southern Europe (000s) 612 2.9% -1.3% -6.2% 2.2% 117.3% 1.8%
Mexico Market Share Summary
2015 Growth (2015-20) Growth (2010-15)

Argentina
Norway, Sweden, UK
Slovakia, Ukraine
Methodology note:
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Argentina long haul* outbound travel Rest of Long Haul
Southern Europe
Western Europe
Northern Europe
Million
*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside South America
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Europe's share of Argentinean market
Northern Europe
Western Europe
Southern Europe
Level* Share
Annual
average
Cumulative
growth**
Share
2020
Cumulative
growth**
Share
2010
of which:
Long haul (000s) 2,248 29.3% 4.2% 22.6% 31.4% 33.7% 28.7%
Short haul (000s) 5,419 70.7% 2.2% 11.2% 68.6% 29.6% 71.3%
Travel to Europe***
Europe (000s) 915 11.9% 3.3% 17.8% 12.3% 53.0% 10.2%
Western Europe (000s) 44 0.6% 2.7% 14.1% 0.6% 37.5% 0.5%
Southern Europe (000s) 669 8.7% 2.7% 14.3% 8.7% 53.1% 7.5%
2015 Growth (2015-20) Growth (2010-15)
Argentina Market Share Summary

Brazil
Norway, Sweden, UK
Slovakia, Ukraine
Methodology note:
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Brazil long haul* outbound travel Rest of Long Haul
Southern Europe
Western Europe
Northern Europe
Million
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Europe's share of Brazilian market
Northern Europe
Western Europe
Southern Europe
Level* Share
Annual
average
Cumulative
growth**
Share
2020
Cumulative
growth**
Share
2010
of which:
Long haul (000s) 7,705 73.4% 2.4% 12.8% 73.8% 71.9% 66.9%
Short haul (000s) 2,786 26.6% 2.0% 10.6% 26.2% 25.4% 33.1%
Travel to Europe***
Europe (000s) 3,950 37.7% -0.9% -4.7% 32.0% 66.2% 35.4%
Western Europe (000s) 1,753 16.7% -0.9% -4.3% 14.2% 62.7% 16.1%
Southern Europe (000s) 1,509 14.4% -3.5% -16.3% 10.7% 66.0% 13.6%
Brazil Market Share Summary
2015 Growth (2015-20) Growth (2010-15)

India
Norway, Sweden, UK
Slovakia, Ukraine
Methodology note:
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
India long haul* outbound travel Rest of Long Haul
Southern Europe
Western Europe
Northern Europe
Million
*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside South Asia
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Europe's share of Indian market
Northern Europe
Western Europe
Southern Europe
*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside South Asia
Level* Share
Annual
average
Cumulative
growth**
Share
2020
Cumulative
growth**
Share
2010
of which:
Long haul (000s) 14,289 95.2% 5.8% 32.6% 95.5% 51.7% 95.1%
Short haul (000s) 723 4.8% 4.1% 22.5% 4.5% 48.5% 4.9%
Travel to Europe***
Europe (000s) 2,432 16.2% 5.3% 29.6% 15.9% 64.9% 14.9%
Western Europe (000s) 883 5.9% 5.4% 29.9% 5.8% 78.1% 5.0%
India Market Share Summary
2015 Growth (2015-20) Growth (2010-15)

China
Norway, Sweden, UK
Slovakia, Ukraine
Methodology note:
Note Chinese outbound shown here is smaller than
reported departures in national statistics as the latter
includes same day visits to Hong Kong and Macau.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
China long haul* outbound travel Rest of Long Haul
Southern Europe
Western Europe
Northern Europe
Million
*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside Northeast Asia
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Europe's share of Chinese market
Northern Europe
Western Europe
Southern Europe
Level* Share
Annual
average
Cumulative
growth**
Share
2020
Cumulative
growth**
Share
2010
of which:
Long haul (000s) 35,629 45.3% 4.2% 22.9% 46.0% 202.7% 33.4%
Short haul (000s) 43,096 54.7% 3.6% 19.4% 54.0% 83.9% 66.6%
Travel to Europe***
Europe (000s) 10,910 13.9% 4.8% 26.1% 14.5% 167.0% 11.6%
Western Europe (000s) 6,140 7.8% 5.1% 28.5% 8.3% 211.9% 5.6%
Central/Eastern Europe (000s) 3,347 4.3% 3.8% 20.8% 4.2% 106.7% 4.6%
Growth (2015-20) Growth (2010-15)
China Market Share Summary
2015

Japan
Norway, Sweden, UK
Slovakia, Ukraine
Methodology note:
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Japan long haul* outbound travel Rest of Long Haul
Southern Europe
Western Europe
Northern Europe
Million
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Europe's share of Japanese market
Northern Europe
Western Europe
Southern Europe
Level* Share
Annual
average
Cumulative
growth**
Share
2020
Cumulative
growth**
Share
2010
Total outbound travel (000s) 20,392 - 4.8% 26.7% - -5.5% -
of which:
Long haul (000s) 13,431 65.9% 4.0% 21.6% 63.2% 7.8% 57.7%
Short haul (000s) 6,961 34.1% 6.4% 36.5% 36.8% -23.7% 42.3%
Travel to Europe***
Europe (000s) 4,487 22.0% 2.0% 10.5% 19.2% 7.6% 19.3%
Western Europe (000s) 2,039 10.0% 2.6% 13.8% 9.0% 5.1% 9.0%
Central/Eastern Europe (000s) 584 2.9% 2.1% 11.1% 2.5% -5.9% 2.9%
2015 Growth (2015-20) Growth (2010-15)
Japan Market Share Summary

United Arab Emirates
Norway, Sweden, UK
Slovakia, Ukraine
Methodology note:
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
UAE long haul* outbound travel Rest of Long Haul
Southern Europe
Western Europe
Northern Europe
Million
*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside the Middle East
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Europe's share of Emirati market
Northern Europe
Western Europe
Southern Europe
*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside the Middle East
Level* Share
Annual
average
Cumulative
growth**
Share
2020
Cumulative
growth**
Share
2010
of which:
Long haul (000s) 1,540 43.1% 1.4% 7.1% 36.0% 38.2% 31.4%
Short haul (000s) 2,030 56.9% 7.7% 44.8% 64.0% -16.8% 68.6%
Travel to Europe***
Europe (000s) 902 25.3% 0.3% 1.3% 19.9% 44.0% 17.6%
Northern Europe (000s) 294 8.2% -2.8% -13.4% 5.6% 39.9% 5.9%
Western Europe (000s) 389 10.9% 0.7% 3.7% 8.8% 66.6% 6.6%
Central/Eastern Europe (000s) 24 0.7% 6.0% 33.7% 0.7% -44.5% 1.2%
2015 Growth (2015-20) Growth (2010-15)
United Arab Emirates Market Share Summary

Russia
Norway, Sweden, UK
Slovakia, Ukraine
Methodology note:
destinations; In 2014 US data reporting shows 11.9m
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Russia outbound travel Rest of World
Southern Europe
Western Europe
Northern Europe
Million
*Outbound travel defined as tourist arrivals to all destinations
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Europe's share of Russian market
Northern Europe
Western Europe
Southern Europe
% of outbound* market
*Outbound market defined as tourist arrivals to all destinations
Level* Share
Annual
average
Cumulative
growth**
Share
2020
Cumulative
growth**
Share
2010
of which:
Long haul (000s) 7,174 27.4% 6.1% 34.2% 25.7% 14.0% 24.1%
Short haul (000s) 19,054 72.6% 7.8% 45.8% 74.3% -3.7% 75.9%
Travel to Europe***
Europe (000s) 19,054 72.6% 7.8% 45.8% 74.3% -3.7% 75.9%
Northern Europe (000s) 1,252 4.8% 5.2% 28.6% 4.3% -9.7% 5.3%
Western Europe (000s) 1,656 6.3% 4.5% 24.7% 5.5% 23.8% 5.1%
Central/Eastern Europe (000s) 8,571 32.7% 9.2% 55.3% 35.6% -26.7% 44.8%
2015 Growth (2015-20) Growth (2010-15)
Russia Market Share Summary

Economic outlook summary: key source markets
Assessing recent tourism data and industry performance is a useful way of directly
monitoring the key trends for travel demand across Europe. This can be complemented by
looking at key trends and relationships in macroeconomic performance in Europe’s key
source markets which can provide further useful insight into likely tourism developments
throughout the year.
The linkages between macro and tourism performance can be very informative. For
example, strong GDP or consumer spending growth is an indication of rising prosperity with
people more likely to avail of international travel. It is also an indication of rising business
activity and therefore stronger business travel. Movements in exchange rates against the
euro can be equally important as it can influence choice of destination.-----------------------------
------------
 Eurozone GDP growth is forecast to grow in 2015 across all key markets, most notably
Germany as a result of low inflation, falling unemployment, and more competitive
exports.
 The UK recovery continues with strong growth across all key macro indicators expected
in 2015 and 2016, particularly GDP and consumer expenditure up 2.4% and 2.9%
respectively compared to 2014. This growth is being led by low inflation driven by lower
oil prices.
 Russian growth has slowed substantially in 2015 and Oxford Economics’ latest outlook is
recession with GDP expected to fall 4%. This is partly linked to the large devaluation of
the rouble which began last year and risks related to capital flight in emerging markets,
while a falling oil price will also affect government revenue and spending. There has
been some reprieve in recent months, however, with more competitive exports helping to
ease the pain currently being felt elsewhere in the economy. However, the continued
sanctions and counter-sanctions will act as a further drag on growth.
 Chinese growth has been downgraded again. Relatively strong GDP and consumer
expenditure growth is still expected, albeit slower than Indian growth expectations in the
short to medium term. Lower fuel prices, steadily reducing inflation and higher business
and investor confidence suggest that growth in India will accelerate in the coming
months and strong GDP and consumer expenditure growth will pave the way for
outbound travel growth.
GDP
Consumer
expenditure
Unemploy-
ment **
Exchange
rate*** Inflation GDP
Consumer
expenditure
Unemploy-
ment **
Exchange
rate*** Inflation
UK 2.4% 2.9% -0.6% 10.9% 0.1% UK 2.5% 2.7% -0.1% 1.3% 1.1%
France 1.1% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% France 1.5% 1.5% -0.1% 0.0% 1.5%
Germany 1.6% 2.0% -0.3% 0.0% 0.3% Germany 2.3% 1.9% -0.1% 0.0% 1.4%
Netherlands 1.9% 1.3% -0.3% 0.0% 0.9% Netherlands 2.1% 1.9% -0.1% 0.0% 1.3%
Italy 0.8% 0.6% -0.6% 0.0% 0.1% Italy 1.2% 1.1% -0.3% 0.0% 0.7%
Russia -4.0% -9.8% 0.4% -25.5% 15.1% Russia -0.8% -0.9% 0.3% -8.9% 7.1%
US 2.5% 3.2% -0.9% 19.9% 0.2% US 2.6% 3.1% -0.4% 4.0% 1.9%
Canada 1.1% 2.0% -0.1% 3.6% 1.1% Canada 2.0% 2.2% -0.1% 4.2% 1.8%
Brazil -2.9% -3.5% 1.5% -17.2% 8.8% Brazil -1.7% -1.7% 0.7% -21.6% 7.3%
China 6.9% 7.3% 0.0% 17.6% 1.5% China 6.3% 7.0% 0.0% -1.2% 1.8%
Japan 0.6% -0.9% -0.2% 4.3% 0.8% Japan 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.9% 0.5%
India 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 14.3% 4.9% India 7.4% 7.1% -0.1% 1.1% 5.5%
* unless otherwise specified
** percentage point change
Note: Colour coding relates to each individual column and highlights the strongest performing countries shaded as dark green (e.g. China fastest growing GDP), and
weakest performaing countries as dark red (e.g. rising unemployment and falling GDP, consumer expenditure, and exchange rate in Russia).
Summary of economic outlook: 2015
% growth y-y*
Macroeconomic indicators
Summary of economic outlook: 2016
% growth y-y*
Macroeconomic indicators
*** exchange rates measured against the euro. A positive change indicates stronger local currency against the euro and therefore a positive impact on outbound
tourism demand. A negative change indicates weaker local currency against the euro and therefore a negative impact on outbound tourism demand.

-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
BRICs total Non-BRIC EM
EMs: Contribution to world trade growth
% point contributions to y/y growth in world goods trade
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
% point contributions to y/y growth in world goods trade
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
US: Yields and economic surprises
%
US Economic
surprise index
(LHS)
Change in US
10-year yields
(RHS)
% points, 3m
Overview: Drag from emergers pulls
down World growth
 This month sees another downgrade to our
world growth forecasts, to 2.5% for 2015 and
3.0% for 2016, from 2.6% and 3.1% last
month.
 A key factor behind this downgrade is the
weak performance of emerging markets. In
Q1, we estimate that 17 large emergers cut 0.9
percentage points from annual world trade
growth – a phenomenon not seen since the
global financial crisis.
 China accounted for much of this, but imports
were also weak in other emergers where lower
commodity prices, high debt and structural
weaknesses are all contributing to slower
growth. Forecasts have been cut in several
emerging Asian countries this month.
 As a result, we now forecast world trade
growth at just 1.8% for 2015, a pace usually
associated with global recessions. Trade
growth is expected to remain below its long-
term average next year too, at 4.4%.
 Sluggish global demand has contributed to
weaker US growth in the early part of 2015,
with exports also probably suffering from the
strong dollar – Eurozone and Japanese
exports have held up better.
 US growth is still set to improve in H2 helped
by a strong labour market, but our forecast for
all of 2015 is for growth of just 2.1% (from
2.3% last month).
 The moderate pace of growth in major
economies makes the global upswing more
vulnerable to adverse shocks than in previous
cycles, as does the increased weight of
emergers in world GDP.
 Despite these risks upward pressure on global
bond yields has continued. This reflects
several factors including a correction from
over-bought levels – especially in the
Eurozone where markets had been pricing in
an excessively deflationary scenario.
 Indeed, Eurozone yields are now not only
above pre-QE levels but are also closing in on
the levels seen last August when ECB
president Draghi first flagged that QE was
coming. This suggests that an ECB policy
response is also a downside risks to global
yields now, as well as slow world growth.

Eurozone Economy
 While CPI inflation may have temporarily headed
back into negative territory in the Eurozone, activity
indicators continue to point to solid GDP growth.
Accordingly, we do not expect any significant
imminent monetary policy changes by the ECB.
 Although the composite PMI eased to its lowest
level since February, the big picture is that it
remains consistent with solid GDP growth – a view
that is supported by our GDP indicator which now
points to quarterly growth of about 0.4% in Q3.
 Looking ahead, the outlook remains positive too. In
addition to the recent weakness of inflation, which
we now expect to only inch up to 1.2% next year,
households appear to still be benefitting from a
steady recovery in employment.
 Rising company profits, thanks in part to the weak
euro, the gradual improvement in bank credit
conditions and rising capacity utilization also
suggest that, absent any major external downside
surprises, the solid but unspectacular investment
recovery could gain some further momentum in
2016.
 Of course, the export outlook poses a greater
concern. But despite the recent period of external
weakness centred on emerging markets, Eurozone
exports have held up thanks to developments in the
developed world – a much more important market
for the region. Our baseline view remains that
demand growth in the region’s key export markets
will pick up in the quarters ahead. This, combined
with the weaker euro, bodes well for exports.
 In all, while the Eurozone recovery remains
susceptible to shocks, our baseline view is still for
GDP growth to pick up to an above consensus
1.8% in 2016. Well below target inflation may lead
QE to continue beyond the initial planned
termination date of September 2016. But we don’t
expect an increase in the size of monthly asset
purchases.
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
GDP % q/q
GDP Indicator
Source: Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
Euro area GDP indicator
% q/q
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Eurozone: Employment & emp. intentions
Percent balance % quarter
Employment
(RHS)
EC survey of
employment
intentions (LHS)
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
EC service sector sentiment (LHS)
Services GVA (RHS)
Eurozone: Service output and sentiment
Percent balance % q/q

UK Economy
 The ONS has carried out its annual re-write of UK
economic history, with the publication of the
Quarterly National Accounts data consistent with
the 2015 Blue Book. The strength of the pre-
financial crisis period was downgraded a little, with
the initial stages of the recovery in 2010 also now
looking softer. But the 2011-13 period is now much
stronger, particularly compared to the very weak
initial estimates for this period. Coming after even
larger upward revisions in last year’s Blue Book,
the post-financial crisis recovery now appears in a
much better light, with no double-dip – let alone
triple-dip – recession. Both the scale of the gap with
the pre-crisis trend and the size of the ‘productivity
puzzle’ have been reduced.
 The revisions also have important implications for
policymakers and we expect the OBR to reduce its
estimates of the degree to which the financial crisis
permanently damaged the productive potential of
the economy, rather than reducing their estimate of
the output gap. This would bring them closer to our
long-held views in this area.
 Quarterly growth in Q2 2015 was left unrevised at
0.7% but high frequency data suggest a slight loss
of momentum through Q3. Our short-term GDP
model points to GDP having risen by 0.6% in Q3,
but this growth is entirely dependent upon the
services sector, with the monthly official data
showing output contracting in both the
manufacturing and construction sectors through the
summer. Growth this year is now seen at 2.5%,
rising to 2.6% in 2016.
 Recent commentary from the MPC has been fairly
dovish, albeit most members have been keen to
remind their audience that policy will have to be
tightened at some point. In the October minutes
some members argued that the global outlook had
weakened to the extent that it warranted a
downgrade to the MPC’s forecasts, while others felt
that the downside risks had escalated and there
were some concerns that this could start to weigh
on the domestic economy. We expect the first rate
rise to come in May 2016, with the risks skewed
towards a later move.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Previously Published
New data
UK: Revisions to GDP growth
% year
Source : ONS
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
% year
Consumer spending
Real disposable
income
Source: Oxford Economics
Forecast
UK: Consumer spending and income
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1997-
2007
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Consumer spending Investment
Govt. consumption Inventories
Net trade
UK: Contributions to GDP growth
%pts
Source : Oxford Economics

US Economy
 Real GDP growth was revised up to 3.9% in Q2,
following a weak start to the year. We expect the
bumpy ride to continue in H2, with growth
restrained by inventory decumulation in Q3 but
solid domestic momentum supporting activity in Q4.
 Domestically, real consumer spending remains
robust, trending at a 3% pace for the past twelve
months and well supported by strong income
growth.
 The September payroll report disappointed with
only 142,000 jobs added, and weekly earnings flat
at 2.2%. However, the broader picture continues to
show a solid employment trend with strong labor
market dynamics. We see these favorable
developments supporting stronger wage growth in
the coming months.
 Solid income growth is also supporting housing
activity with sales and starts seemingly turning a
corner. Residential investment should add 0.3
percentage points (pp) to growth in 2015 and 2016.
 Both exports and business investment are currently
held back by a strong dollar and weak global
growth but domestically-oriented businesses are
benefiting from solid consumer outlays.
 Lower oil and gas extraction activity continues to
constrain US growth with the average drag from
lower oil and gas capex nearly 0.4pp in 2015.
 Meanwhile, net external trade is expected to
subtract 0.7pp from growth this year as demand for
US exports remains constrained by sluggish global
demand and a strong US dollar.
 Low oil prices and an appreciating US$ continue to
weigh on inflation, currently at 0.3% for headline
PCE. Core inflation however seems well supported,
and we see inflation gradually moving closer to the
Fed’s 2% target in the next 18-24 months.
 In light of the persistent global headwinds, we have
revised our GDP growth outlook to 2.6% pa in
2016-2017, from 2.8% previously. This weaker
profile comes mostly from lower net exports,
although some of the weakness will seep into
domestic activity.
 We now expect only two Fed funds rate hikes in
each of 2016 and 2017, following a December 2015
lift-off.
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
US: GDP
%, year
Forecast

Japanese Economy
 After the 0.3% contraction in Q2 GDP the economy
appears to have stabilized in Q3. External demand
is weakening, reflecting slowing growth elsewhere
in Asia. By contrast domestic demand indicators
are on balance positive, although hardly robust.
 A softer outlook for H2 means we have
downgraded our 2015 GDP forecast to 0.6% (from
0.8%). For 2016 we now expect growth of 1.5%
instead of 1.8%. We await news of policy stimulus
(monetary and fiscal) before reviewing in detail the
growth profile for 2016 and beyond.
 Monthly data point to a rebound of around 0.5% in
consumer spending in Q3. But labour market data
continue to show a combination of strong demand
but weak earnings growth. Despite this – and the
large fall in equity prices since August – consumer
confidence has held up reasonably well. The trend
in consumption is one of gradual recovery, in which
case the Q2 fall implies a rebound in Q3.
 There are mixed messages from indicators of
business investment – Tankan up; machinery
orders down. On balance healthy corporate profits
should support modest expansion in investment
through the second half.
 Net exports will in all probability be a significant
drag on growth in Q3. Monthly trade data up to
August on goods show exports little changed on
Q2, with imports up 1% on the same basis.
 Having secured constitutional reform Prime Minister
Abe is reportedly now focused on the economy.
Concrete policy announcements should be
forthcoming in coming weeks and may include a
fiscal stimulus. But the main imminent call is the
expansion of QE by the Bank of Japan at its 30
th
October meeting – one year after the last
expansion of monetary easing. As well as a
faltering economy, recent yen appreciation and
stock market correction strengthen the case for
more QE. We expect an increase in asset
purchases from ¥80trn a year to ¥100trn.
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Aug-08 May-10 Feb-12 Nov-13 Aug-15
Industrial production Export volumes
Japan: industrial production and exports
2010 =100
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Aug-99 Aug-03 Aug-07 Aug-11 Aug-15
CPI exc fresh food CPI exc food and energy
Source : Statistics Japan/Haver Analytics
Japan CPI inflation (excluding consumption tax)
%
BoJ's inflation target
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017
% year
GDP
Consumption
Japan: GDP and consumption
F'cast

Emerging Market Economies
Downward pressures persist in China
In China downward pressures persist as the real estate
downturn continues to weigh on activity, especially heavy
industry. Housing sales momentum has improved but
amid large inventories of unsold housing, starts were still
17% lower than a year earlier in August. And with land
acquisition down 32% this year compared to 2014, it is
unlikely the sector will recover any time soon. Meanwhile,
output in sectors related to construction also remain
under pressure. The Caixin manufacturing PMI
weakened fell to 47.2 in September and export orders
also fell as global demand remains soft and China has
become less price competitive in recent years. Indeed in
spite of the recent devaluation, the trade-weighted CNY
is still about 8% stronger than a year ago. Depreciation
pressures will persist as the US$ is likely to strengthen
ahead of the Fed raising rates. But policymakers are
unlikely to let the CNY weaken soon, given the bad
August experience (we see it at 6.6 to the US$ by end
Q2 2015, from 6.36 now).
The services sector continues to provide a helpful
cushion against the weakness in industry though, with
spending on tourism, hotels and catering, smartphones
and online retail looking particularly healthy. However,
with turnover on the stock market sharply lower from July,
the financial sector is likely to add much less to GDP
growth in H2 2015, having contributed nearly one-third of
H1 nominal GDP growth. And net exports may become a
drag on growth. Hence, we see GDP growth falling below
7% in H2, averaging 6.6% in 2015 overall.
And ‘junk’ Brazil faces a deeper recession
While risks are high in China, in Brazil the downside
scenario is already beginning to materialise. Late last
month the real (BRL) broke an all-time low of 4 to the
US$ and bond yields rose sharply after S&P’
downgraded Brazil to ‘junk’ status. Although the BRL has
rebounded a little, we expect more weakness in Q4 2015
and 2016 due to the poor fundamentals, high volatility
and US rate hikes. Domestically, we now see a deeper
recession – partly reflecting the higher borrowing costs
and risk premium associated with the downgrade – which
will make the fiscal adjustment even tougher. We see
GDP contracting by 2.9% this year (from 2.5%
previously) followed by a 1.7% drop in 2016 (from 1%
before). On the bright side, lower domestic demand and
the weaker BRL should allow Brazil to narrow its current
account deficit to 3% of GDP in the coming two years –
from 4.4% in 2014.
46
48
50
52
54
56
Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15
Manufacturing
Services
Composite
China: Output PMI
index
Source: Oxford Economics/Markit/Caixin
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15
Index (Dec 30, 2010 = 100)
China
Source: Haver Analytics
Emergers: Exchange rates v US$
India
Indonesia
Korea
appreciation
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
2012=100 (seasonally adjusted)
Brazil: Industrial output

Russia the second BRIC in deep recession
The one BRIC that beats Brazil in terms of depth of
recession is Russia and leading indicators point to a
continuation of the Russian economy’s broad-based
contraction. Investment demand deteriorated and private
spending weakened further. Slumping oil prices have
renewed the pressure on the rouble, leading to a pickup
in inflation and we expect the rouble to remain under
downward pressure. This has forced the central bank’s
hand, marking the end of the recent easing cycle in
September. Rates may rise in Q4 and we now expect
GDP to contract by 4% in 2015 (from 3.8% previously).
And we no longer see any prospects for a mild recovery
next year. Instead, forecast another year of recession in
2016, with growth falling by 0.9% (from -0.2% before).
Turkey faces many headwinds, all downside
Turkey ran a current account deficit of more than 6%
GDP in Q2, leaving the economy particularly vulnerable
to the general EM sell off in Q3 and we expect the lira to
remain under pressure. Inflation was 7.9% in September
(from a low of 6.8% in July) and the real effective
exchange rate has already depreciated to levels that
have previously triggered emergency rate hikes by the
central bank (raising the risk of this happening again). In
the baseline, we have pencilled in a 100bp increase in
interest rates in Q4, followed by 150bp in Q1 2016. The
economy continues to be weighed down by the twin
effects of poor external sentiment and increasingly fragile
domestic conditions. Political uncertainty ahead of new
elections in November has coincided with a flare up of
geopolitical tensions along the border with Syria and Iraq
and business confidence fell markedly in September with
consumer confidence dropping to the lowest since 2009.
We see 2.8% growth next year (from 3.5% in August).
India free to cut rates, but transmission slow
In sharp contrast to Brazil, Russia and Turkey, the RBI
(India) lowered rates by 50bp in September and looking
ahead, the risks are skewed towards further rate cuts.
Alhough the economy started Q3 positively, this start
faltered with rural demand, private investment and credit
growth all languishing. Meanwhile, downside risks have
increased; the global economic backdrop is weak and
monetary policy transmission has been slow. That said,
the RBI is likely to adopt a cautious stance until more
clarity emerges on the timing of the Fed rate hike. And
the disinflation trend is nearing an end as helpful base
effects begin to fade. Real interest rates should drop
gradually and we see the RBI pausing in 2015 and 2016.
20
30
40
50
60
70
8040
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jun 14 Sep 14 Dec 14 Mar 15 Jun 15 Sep 15
RUB per US$ (inverted)
Russia: RUB and oil price
Oil price (US$ pb)
RUB per US$ (RHS)
Oil price (LHS)
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
%
"Core" inflation
Source: Haver Analytics / Oxford Economics
Turkey: Interest rates and inflation
Average bank lending rate
1-week
interbank rate
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15
%
India: Interest rates
3-month interbank rate
10-year government
bond yield
Repo policy rate

Glossary of commonly used terms and abbreviations
Airline industry indicators
ASK Available Seat Kilometers. Indicator of airline supply, available seats x
kilometers flown
PLF Passenger Load Factor. Indicator of airline capacity. Equal to revenue
passenger kilometers (RPK) / available seat kilometers (ASK)
RPK Revenue Passenger Kilometers. Indicator of airline demand, paying
passenger x kilometers flown
3mth mav Three month moving average
Hotel industry indicators
ADR Average Daily Rate – Indicator of hotel room pricing. Equal to hotel room
revenue / rooms sold in a given period
Occ Occupancy Rate – Indicator of hotel performance. Equal to the number of
hotel rooms sold / room supply
RevPAR Revenue per Available Room – Indicator of hotel performance. Equal to
hotel room revenue / rooms available in a given period
Central Banks
BoE Bank of England;
MPC Monetary Policy Committee of BoE
BoJ Bank of Japan
ECB European Central Bank
Fed Federal Reserve (US)
RBI Reserve Bank of India
OBR Office for Budget Responsilbility
Economic indicators and terms
BP Basis Point – A unit equal to one hundredth of a percentage point
Broad money Key indicator of money supply and liquidity including currency
holdings as well as bank deposits that can easily be converted to
cash
CPI Consumer Price Index – Measure of price inflation for consumer
goods
FDI Foreign Direct Investment – Investment form one country into
another, usually by companies rather than governments
GDP Gross Domestic Product – The value of goods and services
produced in a given economy

LCU Local Currency Unit – The national unit of currency of a given
country, e.g. pound, euro, etc.
PMI Purchasing Managers’ Index – Indicator of producers’ sentiment
and the direction of the economy
PPI Purchase Price Index – Measure of inflation of input prices to
producers of goods and services
PPP Purchasing Power Parity – An implicit exchange rate which
equalises the price of identical goods and services in different
countries so they can be expressed with a common price
QE Quantitive Easing – Expansionary monetary policy pursued by
Central Banks involving asset purchases to reduce bond yields and
increase liquidity in capital markets
G7 Group of seven industrialised countries comprising US, UK, France,
Germany, Italy, Canada, Japan

ETC Member Organizations
Austria Austrian National Tourist Office (ANTO)
Belgium Flanders: Tourism Flanders
Wallonia: Wallonie-Bruxelles Tourisme (WBT)
Bulgaria Bulgarian Ministry of Tourism
Croatia Croatian National Tourist Board (CNTB)
Cyprus Cyprus Tourism Organisation (CTO)
Czech Republic CzechTourism
Denmark VisitDenmark
Estonia Estonian Tourist Board - Enterprise Estonia
Finland Visit Finland – Finpro ry
Germany German National Tourist Board (GNTB)
Greece Greek National Tourism Organisation (GNTO)
Hungary Hungarian Tourism Ltd.
Iceland Icelandic Tourist Board
Ireland Fáilte Ireland and Tourism Ireland Ltd.
Italy Italian Government Tourist Board
Latvia Latvian Tourism Development Agency (TAVA)
Lithuania Lithuanian State Department of Tourism
Luxembourg Luxembourg National Tourist Office (ONT)
Malta Malta Tourism Authority (MTA)
Monaco Monaco Government Tourist and Convention Office
Montenegro National Tourism Organisation of Montenegro
Norway Innovation Norway
Poland Polish Tourist Organisation (PTO)
Portugal Turismo de Portugal, I.P.
Romania Romanian National Authority for Tourism
San Marino State Office for Tourism
Serbia National Tourism Organisation of Serbia (NTOS)
Slovakia Slovak Tourist Board
Slovenia Slovenian Tourist Board
Spain Turespaña - Instituto de Turismo de España
Sweden VisitSweden
Switzerland Switzerland Tourism
Turkey Ministry of Culture and Tourism

European Travel Market | Trends & Prospects | Q3 2015

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