9. Where are we in this
housing recovery cycle?
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
5,500,000
6,000,000
6,500,000
7,000,000
7,500,000
8,000,000
8,500,000
9,000,000
UnitsSold
Total New and Existing Home Sales -
May 1999 through May 2013
10. Median Prices up sharply in 2012
and YTD 2013
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
$550,000
$600,000
CaliforniaMedianHomePrice($)
California Median Prices - Single Family Home
June 2001 through June 2013
Source: PropertyRadar.com
11. Inventory at or near record lows
Source: California Association of Realtors – CAR.org
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
MonthsofUnsoldInventory
California Unsold Inventory Index (Months of Available
Inventory) January 1990 to May 2013
12. Source: ForeclosureRadar – www.foreclosureradar.com
Foreclosure activity slowing…
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
ForeclosureNoticesorSales
Foreclosure Activity
May 2007 through May 2013
Notice of Default
Notice of Trustee Sale
Foreclosure Sales
15. California home building permits
on the rise
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
NumberofPermits
California Total Single Family Home Construction Permits
January through May, 2000 through 2013
18. California employment on the rise
11,500
12,000
12,500
13,000
13,500
14,000
14,500
15,000
15,500
NumberofEmployees
Monthly California Employment Trends (thousands of employees)
January 1990 to May 2013
19. San Diego employment rising at a faster clip
1,320,000
1,340,000
1,360,000
1,380,000
1,400,000
1,420,000
1,440,000
1,460,000
1,480,000
1,500,000
NumberofEmployees
Employment Trends - San Diego - Carlsbad - San Marcos Metro Area
2003 to 2013
Source: BLS.gov
20. California personal income
gaining ground
$900,000
$1,000,000
$1,100,000
$1,200,000
$1,300,000
$1,400,000
$1,500,000
$1,600,000
$1,700,000
$1,800,000
PersonalIncome(Millionsof$)
California Total Personal Income (Mllions of $)
Q1 1999 through Q1 2013
21. What should a housing recovery
look like?
Rising Prices
Increase in Market Activity
Increase in Building Activity
23. Sales volume down 5.9% in June
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
SalesVolume
California Total Single Family Home and Condominium Sales
January to June Year-to-Date Sales Comparisons
2005 through 2013
Distressed Sales
Non-Distressed Sales
Year-to-Date
Jan-June sales nearly down
5.9 percent Y-o-Y
24. What about San Diego County……?
Source: PropertyRadar.com
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
SalesVolume
Monthly Trend of San Diego Real Estate Sales
Distressed vs. Non-Distressed Sales
February 2006 to June 2013
Distressed Sales
Non-Distressed Sales
Source: PropertyRadar.com
25. What about San Diego County……?
Source: PropertyRadar.com
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
SalesVolume
San Diego County Total Single Family Home and Condominium Sales
January to June Year-to-Date Sales Comparisons
2005 through 2013
Distressed Sales
Non-Distressed Sales
Year-to-Date
Jan-June sales up in San
Diego County
26. What a difference a year makes!
Source: PropertyRadar.com
Distressed Property Sales as a % of
Total Sales
County Q2-11 Q2-12 Q2-13
San Diego 51.8% 47.2% 27.1%
Contra Costa 60.9% 54.5% 29.8%
Riverside 62.8% 55.7% 37.2%
Sacramento 68.1% 61.7% 38.2%
San Bernardino 68.7% 61.5% 42.1%
27. Negative Equity on the Decline
Homeowner equity critical
to housing recovery
28. Negative equity on the decline
Source: CoreLogic – www.corelogic.com
24%
28%
32%
36%
NegativeEquityShare(%)
California Negative Equity (%)
Q4 2009 to Q4 2012
30. Negative Equity - California
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
NumberofCaliforniaHomeowners(inThousands)
Increase In California Home Prices
Number of California Homeowners
that Exit Negative Equity Positions
Approximately 500,000
California homeowners
exit their negative equity
positions if home prices
go up 10%
Approximately 900,000
California homeowners exit
their negative equity
positions if home prices go
up 20%
Source: PropertyRadar.com
35. Demand will remain strong
• Despite jawboning by the Fed, QE 3 will likely
continue at current levels well into 2014
• In many parts of CA rents higher than house
payments
• Many early foreclosure “victims” now qualify
for a mortgage and are choosing to buy
36. Supply will remain tight
• Government intervention will continue to slow
foreclosures, ie. CA Homeowner’s Bill of Rights
• Many homeowners with equity waiting for higher
prices
• Nearly 2 million underwater homeowners can’t
buy or sell (except short)
• New home supply lagging demand
• Lack of REO inventory
• Short sales CA hampered by legislative
uncertainty
37. Home prices will rise
• Lack of supply, and continued demand will put
upward pressure on prices
• But increases will be constrained:
– Interest rate volatility
– By credit terms
– By appraisals
– By affordability and ROI
39. CREATE INVENTORY, GET LISTINGS, ATTRACT HOME BUYERS
• PropertyRadar is a powerful new product that gives you the
data, software, and analytics to be successful in today’s
marketplace.
• ForeclosureRadar changed the way professionals operate in the
foreclosure marketplace.
• PropertyRadar upgrades that service to ALL California properties
to enable you to work faster & make more money.
PROPERTYRADAR®
Formerly known as FORECLOSURERADAR®
40. Lots of opportunities – Use PropertyRadar to
Uncover Hidden Opportunities
Expertise at your
Fingertips!
60. – Farm for short sale opportunities
– Locate and mail to renters who may
eventually become buyers
– Locate and mail to landlords who might
want to sell
– Locate older homeowners who have
owned homes for years, free and clear.
– Locate small older homes on large lots
Other opportunities to find inventory
64. California Property Report
Sign Up for our free monthly Property
Report
http://www.propertyradar.com/reports
and our free monthly On the Radar
Report
http://www.propertyradar.com/onther
adar
Get ahead of the competition!
Editor's Notes
I moved this to after predictions as I thought it fit best vs. after retrospectiveSo if we are in a new bubble…is it a good time to invest?
I moved this to after predictions as I thought it fit best vs. after retrospectiveSo if we are in a new bubble…is it a good time to invest?
I moved this to after predictions as I thought it fit best vs. after retrospectiveSo if we are in a new bubble…is it a good time to invest?
Starts peaked at almost 60k, now 10k (1/6)Sales peaked at almost 30k, now 6k (1/5)
Constraining Demand:Homeowners with equity not moving up, instead hunkering downNearly a quarter of all homeowners underwater, condemned to a prison of debt.Mortgage lending standards remain tight.
If we just listen to the fear in the headlines and bury our heads in the sand, we lose out on a good 2 to maybe 3 year runway.
