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“IMPACT OF DIRECTOR TRANSACTION (SELL) ON COMPANY
STOCK PRICES IN USA STOCK MARKET”
AN EVENT STUDY
AT
S&P GLOBAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE (S&P GMI), HYDERABAD
SHIAK FEROZ
Roll No: 15M103
(PGDM Finance & Marketing)
Project Report
Submitted
To
Dhruva College of Management (DCM)
(Approved by AICTE, Ministry of HRD, Govt. of India)
N H: 44, Hyderabad-501 401
India
In partial fulfillment of PGDM Program
2015-2017
II
DECLARATION
III
I do hereby give the undertaking that the present study is a bona fide work and I have not
submitted it for the award of any degree or diploma in any college or University apart from the
Dhruva College of Management (Approved by AICTE, Ministry of HRD, Govt. of India).
SHAIK FEROZ
15M103
Date:
Place:
Approved by
PROF. SADAB ALAM
Faculty Guide
IV
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
V
Every work accomplished is a sense of satisfaction. However a number of people always
motivate, criticize and appreciate a work with their ideas and opinions, hence I would like to use
this opportunity to thank all, who have directly or indirectly helped me to accomplish this
project. I would like to extend my sincere thanks to all of them.
I am highly indebted to college guide, SADAB ALAM, Assistant Professor, Finance DCM,
Medchal, for his guidance and constant supervision as well as for providing necessary
information regarding the project and also for his support in completing the project.
I would like to express my sincere thanks to Dr. S. PRATAP REDDY, Honorable Chairman of
DCM, Medchal, for his help in providing good facilities during my summer internship project.
I wish to express my sincere gratitude to Dr. U.B.RAJU, Dean, DCM, Medchal, for his
consistent help during my summer internship.
My heartful thanks to the Company Guide Mr. SURENDRA RAJU SIBBYAL (Team leader,
S&P Capital IQ). Mr. RAMESH KUMAR MASANAM (Senior Research Analyst, S&P
Capital IQ) and other employees at S&P Capital IQ for their valuable guidance and suggestions
throughout the period.
It would not have been viable to do this project efficiently and timely if I was not given altruistic
and emotive abet by, Mr. V.S. CHANDRA SEKHAR (Director – Ownership & Investor
Activism S&P Capital IQ India) who dealt with me patiently and showed me the lucid career
path.
I wish to convey my gratitude and express my sincere thanks to my parents and all faculty
members for their support and cooperation rendered for successful submission of my project
work. Finally, I would like to express my sincere thanks to my team members, who have
contributed to this project with their valuable opinions and suggestions.
VI
CERTIFICATE
VII
VIII
LIST OF CONTENTS
IX
S.NO CONTENT PAGE NO.
1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1
2 INTRODUCTION 3
3 OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY 11
4 METHODOLOGY 13
5 ANALYSIS AND FINDINGS 20
6 CONCLUSION 28
7 BIBLIOGRAPHY 30
8 ANNEXURE - 1 (COMPANY PROFILE) 32
9 ANNEXURE - 2 (LITERATURE REVIEW) 44
10 ANNEXURE - 3 (ANALYSIS AND FINDINGS DATA) 47
X
LIST OF TABLES
XI
S.NO CONTENT PAGE
NO.
1 Data points of Director Sell shares in USA companies 14
2 t-Test for Actual Returns vs Expected Returns during
Event Window
22
3 t-Test for Actual Return vs Expected Return on the Event
day
23
4 t-Test for Event Days vs Non Event Days (Abnormal
Returns)
24
5 Key personnel in S&P Global 39
6 Stock quotes on June-16-2016 of S&P Global 40
7 Financial Information about S&P Global 41
8 Profitability & Margin analysis ratios of S&P Global 42
9 Actual and Expected Returns during the Event day 47
10 Abnormal Returns on Event day and Abnormal retuns on
Non-Event day
49
XII
LIST OF FIGURES
XIII
S.NO CONTENT PAGE
NO.
1 Stock performance of S&P Global, Inc. Over 10 years 40
2 S&P Global Operating Performance 41
Page 1
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Page 2
Director of a company is a key player in an organization, the reason for all the attention that goes
to insiders’ activities is Company executives and Directors know their business more intimately
than any other investors or analyst. This study will mainly be focused on the effects on stock
returns when Director Sells his shares in his own company in the USA Markets. To proceed with
my study, I have randomly selected 25 Director Sell transactions from the USA Companies
during the period of 6 months from 29/12/2015 to 6/27/2016, and conducted an event study with
an event window of 7 days, i.e. event day, 3 days prior to event day, and 3 days after the event
day. I have used Market model (ER = Alpha + Beta * Index Return) the market model says that
the return on a security depends on the return on the portfolio (Market Index) and the extent of
the security's responsiveness as measured by beta and alpha If the actual return during the event
window is not same as the expected return, it is considered to be an abnormal return. I have used
t-test to see whether the abnormal return so calculated is statistically significant or not.
I have done three statistical analysis for my study. My first analysis that compared the actual
return against the expected return during event window, showed that there is no statistically
significant difference between the actual return and the expected return during the event window.
My second analysis that compared between the actual return and expected return only on the
event day showed that there is no statistically significant difference between actual returns and
expected returns on the event day.My third analysis that compared between the abnormal returns
on the event day and the abnormal returns during the event window minus the event day, i.e. 6
days, two returns showed that there is no statistically significant difference between the abnormal
return on the event day and abnormal return during the event window.Thus my entire analysis
showed that there is no statistically significant impact on stock prices when the Director of
publicly listed USA company sold shares in his own company.
Page 3
2. INTRODUCTION
Page 4
2.1 COMPANY PROFILE
S&P Global Market Intelligence (initially known as S&P Capital IQ) is a multinational financial
information provider, headquartered in New York City, United States, and a division of S&P
Global (McGraw Hill Financial.) S&P Capital IQ was formed in 2010 from offerings previously
provided by Capital IQ, elements of S&P including Global Credit Portal and Market Scope
Advisor, enterprise solutions such as S&P Securities Evaluations and Compustat, research
offerings including Leveraged Commentary & Data, Global Markets Intelligence, and company
and fund research.
2.1.1 HISTORY:
Capital IQ was founded in 1999 by Neal Goldman, Steve Turner and Randall Winn. They sold
the business to McGraw Hill in 2004 and Randall Winn served as the CEO/Executive Managing
Director of Capital IQ, Inc. Operating the business as a relatively standalone subsidiary until
April 1, 2011. At that point, Winn left and the company and its various functions were fully
merged with other parts of S&P to become part of McGraw-Hill Financial. In 2015, McGraw
Hill Financial acquired SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ and SNL Financial joined and formed as
S&P Global Market Intelligence in 2016 in the same year McGraw Hill Financial changes its
name to S&P Global.
2.1.2 OPERATIONS:
S&P Capital IQ provides web-based information services that combine information on
companies worldwide along with a variety of software applications that allow financial
professionals to analyze company fundamentals, build financial models, screen for investment
ideas, and execute other financial research tasks. Capital IQ serves more than 4,200 clients,
including investment banks, investment management firms, private equity firms, universities,
consultants, and corporations [2]
. Its competitors include Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg
L.P. and FactSet Research Systems. Components of Capital IQ’s offering include data on public
companies, private companies, auditable company Financials, M&A/financing transactions,
public offerings, corporate executives and board directors, compensation, news, filings,
Screening tools, chart builder, Excel Plug-In modelling tool, real-time market data and news,
relationship tree, macroeconomic data, industry analysis and investment research.
The detailed company profile can be found in Annexure-1
Page 5
2.2 LITERATURE REVIEW
Do the actions of corporate insiders convey information about future company prospects which
are not available elsewhere? In terms of informational efficiency, one issue is whether corporate
insiders have the ability to time the market, and consequently generate benefits, either for their
firms, or for themselves personally. If they are able to generate abnormal profits, this could be
interpreted as evidence against strong-form efficiency. Typically, financial regulators assume
that corporate insiders’ information is superior, and require that their actions be disclosed to the
market. A second issue is whether outsiders may obtain excess returns from mimicking the
signals sent by the insiders’ actions. Earlier work in the US by Jaffee (1974) and Finnerty (1976)
had suggested that insiders are able to predict and exploit long-run subsequent returns. This
apparent semi-strong form inefficiency was explained by Seyhun (1986) in terms of transaction
costs of trading. Jaffe (1974) and Seyhun (1986) also reports evidence of abnormal returns
immediately around the insiders’ trades. However, conflicting evidence has been produced in
recent work by Lakonishok and Lee (1998) who find very little market reaction around the time
when insiders trade. Previous work on directors’ trading using UK data identified excess returns
in the months after the directors’ trades (Gregory, Matatko, Tonks, and Purkis (1994) and
Gregory, Matatko, and Tonks (1997)), but returns during the month containing the trade were
found to be not significantly different from zero. Also, in the latter study, the authors found that
the price reaction in the months after the directors’ trades was, surprisingly, inversely related to
the strength of the signal. We identify short run price patterns around directors’ trades: directors
buy after a fall in share prices, after which share prices rise; and directors sell after a rise in share
prices, which are then followed by a stock price decline.
The detailed Literature review can be found in Annexure-2
Page 6
2.3 INSIDERS TRADING
Insider trading is the trading of a public company’s stock or other securities by individuals with
access to non-public information about the company. In various countries, trading based on
insider information is illegal. This is because it is seen as unfair to other investors who do not
have access to the information as the investor with insider information could potentially make far
larger profits that a typical investor could not make.
2.3.1 INSIDER TRADING ISN'T ALWAYS ILLEGAL
Insiders legally buy and sell stock in their own company all of the time; their trading is restricted
and illegal only at certain times and under certain conditions. The SEC considers insiders to be
company directors, officials or any individual with a stake of 10% or more in the company.
Insiders are required to report their insider transactions within two business days of the date the
transaction occurred. For example, if an insider sold 10,000 shares on Monday, June 12, he or
she would have to report this change by Wednesday, June 14. Changes in insider holdings are
sent to the SEC electronically as a Form 4, which details a company's insider trade. A Form 14a,
also filed by the company, lists all the directors and officers along with the shared interest they
have. This kind of information is extremely valuable to individual investors. For example, if
insiders are buying shares in their own companies, they usually know something that normal
investors do not. They might buy because they see great potential, a merger and acquisition or
simply because they think their stock is undervalued. One of the greatest investors of all
time, Peter Lynch, was noted as saying that "insiders might sell their shares for any number of
reasons, but they buy them for only one: they think the price will rise." Insiders are prevented
from buying and selling their company stock within a six-month period: therefore, insiders buy
stock when they feel the company will perform well over the long-term.
2.3.2 INSIDERS OF A COMPANY
The insider is a term describing a director or senior officer of a company, as well as any person
or entity that beneficially owns more than 10% of a company's voting shares.
Directors
A board of directors is a group of individuals that are elected as, representatives of stockholders
to establish corporate management related policies and to make decisions on major company
Page 7
issues. Every public company must have a board of directors. Some private and non-profit
companies have a board of directors as well.
Outside director
An outside director is a member of the board who is not otherwise employed by or engaged with
the organization, and does not represent any of its stakeholders. A typical example is a director
who is president of a firm in a different industry.
Inside director
An inside director is a director who is also an employee, officer, major shareholder, or someone
similarly connected to the organization. Inside directors represent the interests of the entity’s
stakeholders, and often have special knowledge of its inner workings, its financial or market
position, and so on.
Typical inside directors are:
 A chief executive officer (CEO) who may also be chairman.
 Other executives of the organization, such as its chief financial officer (CFO) or
executive vice president
 Large shareholders (who may or may not also be employees or officers)
 Representatives of other stakeholders such as labor unions, major lenders, or members of
the community in which the organization is located
DIRECTOR DUTIES
 To convene Statutory, Annual General Meeting (AGM) and also Extraordinary General
Meetings
 To prepare and place at the AGM, along with the balance sheet and, profit and loss
account, a report on the company’s affairs, including the report of the Board of Directors
 To authenticate and approve the annual financial statement.
 To appoint the first auditor of the company.
 To appoint a cost auditor of the company.
 To make a declaration of solvency in the case of a Members’ voluntary winding up.
Page 8
APPOINTMENT OF DIRECTORS
1 By the articles as regards first directors.
The first directors are usually named in the articles. The articles may also provide that both the
number and the names of the first directors shall be determined in writing by the subscribers to
the memorandum or a majority of them.
2 By the company in general meeting.
Appointment of subsequent directors is made at every annual general meeting of the company.
2/3rd
of the total number of directors of a public company must be appointed by the company in
general meeting.
3 By the directors
The directors are empowered to appoint
i) Additional directors.
ii) Alternate directors.
iii) Directors filling casual vacancy
REMOVAL OF DIRECTORS
A director of a company can be removed by
(a) Shareholders
(b) Central government or The Court
Page 9
2.3.3 US INSIDER TRADING
Insider trading" is a term that most investors have heard and usually associate with illegal
conduct. But the term actually includes both legal and illegal conduct. The legal version is when
corporate insiders officers, directors buy and sell stock in their own companies. When corporate
insiders trade in their own securities, they must report their trades to the SEC. Insiders are
supposed to file Forms3, 4, 5.
Every director, executive officer and every principal owner holding more than 10% of shares
needs to make disclosures of their beneficial holdings in form 3, 4 and 5. The initial filing is on,
Form 3 and changes are reported on Form 4. The Annual Statement of beneficial ownership of
securities is on Form 5.
Here beneficial holdings include those shares on which the reporting owner is having control.
I.e., the owner needs to disclose his direct and indirect holdings in these forms. Generally, a
person is deemed to have control over the shares, if the subject company shares are held by the
relatives of the reporting persons, (or) if the shares are held by entities in which the reporting
person has the ownership or management position, (or) if the shares are controlled by the
reporting person through any agreement.
So, every owner needs to disclose their direct and indirect interest in form 3, 4 and 5. However,
the nature of interest (direct or indirect) will be disclosed in these forms and they will also
disclose the names of the persons through whom they are holding the indirect shares in ‘Nature
of Indirect Beneficial Ownership’ column or sometimes they will mention the names of actual
owners in ‘footnotes’.
2.3.4 LEGAL INSIDERS FILLING
Since 1934, according to US SEC Act 1934 Insiders are required to disclose their transactions in
forms and documents. In 1984, SEC introduced EDGAR began collecting electronic documents
of Insider transactions which is free access to more than 21 million filings to help investors
getting information.
FORM 3:
Form 3 is an SEC filing filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission to indicate a
preliminary insider transaction by an officer, director, or principal (10%) owner of the company's
Page 10
securities. These are typically seen after a company IPO’s when insiders make their first
transactions. After a Form 3 is filed, future filings of the same nature are filed under Form 4
(standard disclosure) or Form 5 (annual disclosure).
When to file:
1. An insider of an issuer that is registered equity securities for the first time under Section
12 of the Exchange Act must file this Form no later than the effective date of the
registration statement.
2. If the issuer is already registered under Section 12, the insider must file a Form 3 within
ten days of becoming an officer, director, or beneficial owner.
FORM 4:
A Form 4 must be filed before the end of the second business day following a change in
ownership of securities or derivative securities (including the exercise or grant of stock options)
for individuals subject to Section 16 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 The forms contain
information on the reporting person's relationship to the company and on purchases and sales of
such equity securities.
When to file:
1. Within 2 days from the date of acquisition of shares.
FORM 5:
Form 5 is an SEC filing submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission on an annual
basis by company’s officers, directors and Principal Owners holding more than 10% of shares.
This form will be filed to disclose the following-
1. If any transactions exempted under the section 16 (b) are there during the issuer’s
most recent fiscal year.
2. Any small acquisition or series of acquisitions in a six month period during the
issuer’s fiscal year not exceeding $10,000 in market value.
3. Any transactions or holdings that should have been reported during the issuer’s fiscal
year on a Form 3 or Form 4, but were not reported.
When to file:
1. Within 45 days after the end of the company's fiscal year.
Page 11
3. OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY
Page 12
 The objective of my research is to study whether there is any impact on stock
prices of a company in the US stock market when the Director of the company
sells his/her shares.
Page 13
4. METHODOLOGY
Page 14
4.1 DATA COLLECTION
SOURCE
The data collected is about the Director Sell shares and their respective companies' stock prices
along with the market index is collected from various sources like
 Google
 Yahoo Finance
 Company's website
 EDGAR
 SEC
TYPE
The data collected for the study is secondary data.
SAMPLE SIZE
A sample of 25 Director Sell events has been used in this study comprising of 25 Companies
from USA Markets.
Table 1: Director Sell shares in USA companies
Company Name Director Name Share
Price
Shares
Traded
Shares
Owned
Own chg
Shenandoah
Telecommunications Co
Zerkel James E II $36.46 -1,500 55,645 -3%
Devon Energy Corp Henry Robert H. $37.43 -7,100 9,748 -42%
Ellie Mae Inc Levinson Marina $86.06 -1,588 8,138 -16%
Levin Robert J $86.06 -635 9,708 -6%
Dolan A Barr $86.06 -635 4,368 -13%
Blasing Karen $86.06 -1,208 5,276 -19%
Symantec Corp Vautrinot Suzanne M $20.60 -3,750 36,732 -9%
Page 15
Community Trust
Bancorp Inc
Baird Charles J $35.52 -8,000 212,167 -4%
Franklin Financial
Network Inc
Brockman Henry W.
Jr.
$31.45 -1,500 61,800 -2%
Natural Health Trends
Corp
Broady George K $28.27 -23,290 925,588 -2%
Alliance Holdings GP LP Druten Robert J $19.60 -12,825 7,538 -63%
Martin Marietta
Materials Inc
Zelnak Stephen P Jr $188.9
0
-3,000 16,689 -15%
Emergent BioSolutions
Inc
Joulwan George A $44.12 -4,700 20,785 -18%
Pinnacle Financial
Partners Inc
Huddleston William H
IV
$50.21 -2,000 85,949 -2%
CoreLogic Inc Dorman John C $37.13 -7,500 15,533 -33%
Range Resources Corp DUB ANTHONY
VDirector
$44.96 -3,000 105,352 -3%
$46.45 -2,106 -2%
Allied Motion
Technologies Inc
Smith Richard D /co/ $21.95 -10,000 576,670 -2%
Intercontinental
Exchange Inc
Salerno Frederic V $232.6
2
-837 3,253 -20%
Intercontinental
Exchange Inc
Forneri Jean Marc $255.0
0
-2,500 16,924 -13%
Lifetime Brands Inc Nanninga Cherrie $15.89 -5,000 25,442 -16%
EastGroup Properties
Inc
Hoster David H II $68.00 -8,000 244,467 -3%
WellCare Health Plans
Inc
Hickey Kevin F $105.5
6
-1,000 14,300 -7%
Abaxis Inc Bastiani Richard $46.75 -5,000 50,700 -9%
Meritage Homes Corp Ax Peter L $36.71 -15,000 60,000 -20%
Sanchez Energy Corp Jackson Alan G. $8.05 -7,936 79,115 -9%
Carney Thomas Brian $8.11 -6,349 35,534 -15%
Page 16
Maher Sean M $8.09 -3,968 49,671 -7%
Garcia Gilbert A $8.05 -7,936 77,315 -9%
Tesla Motors Inc Musk Kimbal $224.3
7
-460 151,865 0%
Amazon.com Inc Stonesifer Patricia Q $726.2
7
-6,250 12,923 -33%
Ulta Salon Cosmetics &
Fragrance Inc
Diromualdo Robert F $237.0
9
-2,500 410,537 -1%
4.2 EVENT STUDY
An event study methodology is used to conduct this study and to know the stock market reaction
to Director Sale shares.
An event is some change, development, announcement that may produce a relatively large
change in the price of the asset over some period. There are many kinds of events happening in a
firm like
 Executive changes
 Stock splits
 Earnings announcements
 Mergers and acquisitions
 Dividend release
 Bonus
 Company expansions
 Regulatory changes
An Event study is a statistical method to assess the impact of an event on the value of a firm.
Conceptually, event study analyses differentiate between the returns that would have been
expected if the analyzed event would not have taken place (expected returns) and the returns that
were caused by the respective event (abnormal returns). The event study methodology is
designed to investigate the effect of an event on a specific dependant variable. A commonly used
dependent variable in event studies is the stock price of the company. A study of the changes in
stock price beyond expectation (Abnormal Returns) over a period of time (event window) is an
Page 17
event study. The event study methodology seeks to determine whether there is an abnormal stock
price effect associated with an event. From this, the significance of the event can be inferred.
4.3 MARKET MODEL
The market model is the most common analysis used for event study. The market model says
that the return on a security depends on the return on the market portfolio and the extent of the
security's responsiveness as measured by beta. The return also depends on conditions that are
unique to the firm. In order to calculate the abnormal returns, i.e the returns that can be attributed
to the event of interest, first need to estimate the expected return for the event date. This is the
hypothetical return that would have occurred in the absence of the event examining.
Alpha is the Y intercept of the regression line. In other words, if the benchmark returned 0%, the
Y intercept would tell us what the security could be expected to return. For instance, the alpha is
2.23%. That means if the benchmark returned 0%, we would expect our security to return 2.23%.
BETA of a security indicates whether the security is more or less volatile than the market. In
general, a beta less than 1 indicates that the security is less volatile than the market, while a beta
more than 1 indicates that the security is more volatile than the market.
Page 18
4.4 EVENT WINDOW
The event window is the period over which the related security prices will be examined.
(T0- T1) Estimation window
(T1- T2) Event window
0 Event day
(T2- T3) Post event window
The estimation window period is useful to calculate the important parameters that will give us
the expected returns during the event period.
ESTIMATION WINDOW:
In this study 252 days prior to the event window is considered as the estimation window period.
Stock prices of 252 trading days prior to the event as well as market price on the same 252 days
are considered.
EVENT WINDOW
A total of 7 day event window is considered for the study. 3 days prior to the event, event day, 3
days after the event are considered.
Page 19
4.5 METHOD OF CALCULATION
 The returns of the firm's stock, as well as the returns of the reference index are calculated
using the formula mentioned below.
 252 days of estimation window is considered to calculate the alpha (𝛼), beta (𝛽), using
excel formulas intercept, slope, respectively.
 To calculate the expected returns throughout the event window, alpha, beta values along
with actual market returns on that particular day are used.
 Abnormal returns are calculated by deducting expected returns from the actual returns of
the firm's stock throughout the event window.
ABNORMAL RETURN = ACTUAL RETURN – EXPECTED RETURN
 To know the statistical significant relation between returns I used t-test in this analysis.
t-TEST
A t-test is an analysis of two populations means through the use of statistical examination; a t-
test with two samples is commonly used with small sample sizes,testing the difference between
the samples when the variances of two normal distributions are not known.
T t-test examines two opposing hypothesis about a population: the null hypothesis and the
alternative hypothesis. The null hypothesis is the statement being tested. Usually the null
hypothesis is a statement of "no effect" or "no difference". The alternative hypothesis is the
statement we want to be able to conclude is true.
Based on the sample data, the test determines whether to reject the null hypothesis. We use a p-
value, to make the determination. If the p-value is less than or equal to the level of significance,
then we can reject the null hypothesis.
Page 20
5. ANALYSIS AND FINDINGS
Page 21
USA
To conduct this study companies listed in the NASDAQ and NYSE, which publicly announced
Director Sell shares in the 6 month period between the 12/29/2015 to 6/27/2016. 25 USA
Companies in which Director Sell took place in that period along with that S&P 500 index
returns are also collected as per the events.
To study further whether the event of a Director Sell affects the stock market or not. I have
employed 3 tests.
I) Studying impact of Director Sell on stock returns compare to company's actual return and the
expected return during the Event Window.
II) Comparison between the actual return and the expected return on the event day.
III) Comparison between abnormal returns of event day and the non-event days in the event
window.
5.1 COMPARISON BETWEEN ACTUAL RETURNS AND THE EXPECTED
RETURNS DURING THE EVENT WINDOW:
My first test is a comparison between actual returns of the event window and the expected
returns of the event window. This test is done using two sample t test using unequal variances.
H0 - The Null hypothesis states that there is no statistically significant difference between the
actual returns of the event window and the expected returns of the event window.
ACTUAL RETURNS OF = EXPECTED RETURNS OF
EVENT WINDOW EVENT WINDOW
H1 – The Alternative hypothesis states that there is statistically significant difference between the
actual returns of the event window and the expected returns during the event window.
ACTUAL RETURNS OF ≠ EXPECTED RETURNS OF
EVENT WINDOW EVENT WINDOW
The two sample t-test using unequal variances is performed and the results are mentioned in the
below table
Page 22
Table 2 : t-Test for Actual returns vs Expected Returns on Event window.
Actual Returns Vs Expected Returns on Event window
t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances
Actual Returns on event
window
Expected Returns
on event window
Mean 0.000506421 -0.000855024
Variance 0.000449848 0.000125499
Observations 175 175
Hypothesized Mean
Difference
0
df 264
t Stat 0.750851888
P (T<=t) one-tail 0.226705266
t Critical one-tail 1.65064591
P (T<=t) two-tail 0.453410531
t Critical two-tail 1.968990497
From the results the t-stat value is 0.7508 and the t Critical two tail value is 1.9689. The t-stat
value is less than the t-Critical value. Hence Null Hypothesis is accepted. So, there is no
statistically significant difference between actual returns and the expected returns during the
event window.
Page 23
5.2 COMPARISON BETWEEN ACTUAL RETURN AND THE EXPECTED RETURN
ON THE EVENT DAY:
My second test is comparison of abnormal and expected return on the event day. This test is done
using two sample t test using unequal variances.
H0 - The Null hypothesis states that the Actual return is equal to the Expected return on the
event day.
H1 - The Alternative hypothesis states that the Actual return is not equal to the Expected return
of the event day.
The Director Sale along with their actual return on the event day and expected return on the
event day are mentioned in the Annexure 3. The two sample t-test using unequal variances is
performed and the results are mentioned in the below table.
Table 3 : t-Test for Actual return vs Expected return on the event day.
Actual Returns Vs Expected Returns
t-Test Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances
Actual Return on event day
Expected Return
on event day
Mean 0.000960342 0.001090185
Variance 0.000282516 4.17212E-05
Observations 25 25
df 31
t Stat -0.036054194
P(T<=t) one-tail 0.485735158
t Critical one-tail 1.695518783
P (T<=t) two-tail 0.971470316
Page 24
t Critical two-tail 2.039513446
From the results the t-stat value is -0.0360 and the t Critical two tail value is 2.0395. The t-stat
value is less than the t-Critical value. Hence The Null Hypothesis is accepted. So, there is no
statistically significant difference between the actual return and the expected return during the
event day.
The date of second t-Test found in Annexure – 3
5.3 COMPARISION BETWEEN ABNORMAL RETURNS ON THE EVENT DAY AND
THE NON EVENT DAYS IN THE EVENT WINDOW:
My third test is a comparison between abnormal returns of the event day and the non-event days
in the event window. This test is done using two sample t test using unequal variances.
H0 - The Null hypothesis states that there is no statistically significant difference between the
abnormal returns on the event day and the non-event days in the event window.
H1 - The Alternative hypothesis states that there is statistically significant difference between the
abnormal returns on the event day and the non-event days in the event window.
The two sample t-test using unequal variances is performed and the results are mentioned in the
below table.
Table 4 : t-Test for Event Days vs Non Event Days (Abnormal Returns).
Event Days Vs Non Event Days (Abnormal Returns)
t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances
AR ON EVENT AR ON NON-EVENT DAY
Page 25
From the results the t-stat value is -0.4646 and the t Critical two tail value is 2.0261. The t-stat
value is less than the t-Critical value. Hence The Null Hypothesis is accepted. So, there is no
statistically significant difference between abnormal return on event day and the abnormal
returns on the non-event days in the event window.
The data of t-Test can be found in Annexure – 3
DAY
Mean -0.000129843 0.001609993
Variance 0.00028127 0.000415091
Observations 25 150
Hypothesized Mean
Difference
0
df 37
t Stat -0.464690756
P (T<=t) one-tail 0.322437999
t Critical one-tail 1.68709362
P (T<=t) two-tail 0.644875998
t Critical two-tail 2.026192463
Page 26
6. CONCLUSION
Page 27
As part of my summer internship program I have gone through the reports of insider filings of
US listed companies, so I have undertaken this study to find whether there is any statistical
significant difference between the actual and expected returns and abnormal returns during the
event window. The object of my study is to know the impact on stock prices when a Director
Sell shares in his company. The study shows that the company's stock price does not react to
insider filing announcement. Director Sell is a signal to the market that there is some negative
news and actions are going to occur that which weaken the image and financial position of the
company. Investors believe that Director Sell shares in his own company is always negative
news for the market thus, majority of the companies react negatively. To fulfill the objectives of
my study, I have taken 25 companies, which involved Director Sell shares during the period of 6
months from 29/12/2015 to 6/27/2016. My research is an event study in which I have considered
+3 and -3 days of window from the event day. To obtain accurate results from the window I have
taken 252 trading days to get accurate alpha (intercept) and Beta (slope) values. I have taken 252
days stock prices of the company and as well as the returns for both the company and market
were calculated in percentages to see the trend of the company and the market in past one year.
Using these returns intercept, slope was calculated for 252 days. These Intercept Values, Slope
Values, were used in calculation of expected returns, abnormal returns, and t stat values. I have
done three t- test analysis for my study.
Three analysis were conducted for the study. In the first analysis, I have compared to companies
actual return and the expected return during the event window using t-test. The t-stat value is
-0.0360 and the t Critical two tail value is 2.0395. The t-stat value is less than the t-Critical value.
So, there is no statistically significant difference between the actual return and the expected
return on the event day.
Secondly, actual return and expected return only during the event day of USA 25 companies
were compared using t-test. The analysis showed that t-stat value is -0.0360 and the t Critical two
tail value is 2.0395. The t-stat value is less than the t-Critical value. So, there is no statistically
significant difference between the actual return and the expected return on the event day.
Lastly, I have compared between the abnormal returns of 25 companies of the USA on the event
day and the abnormal returns during the event window minus the event day, i.e. 6 days using t-
stat. My analysis showed that the t-stat value is -0.4646 and the t Critical two tail value is 2.0261.
The t-stat value is less than the t-Critical value So, there is no statistically significant difference
Page 28
between abnormal return on event day and the abnormal returns on the non-event days in the
event window.
Therefore, by conducting these analysis I can say that the stock market is not much affected by
the insider trading event by Director Sell shares.
From my analysis I would like to conclude that American stock markets is not highly volatile to
the changes that happen in the company Director Sell shares. So investors need not depend upon
the share holding patterns of insiders to make investment decisions, as the study shows there is
no significant difference in the stock returns and performances.
Page 29
7. BIBILOGRAPHY
Page 30
[1]. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_Capital_IQ
[2]. http://www.spcapitaliq.com/
[3]. http://openinsider.com/
[4]. https://www.sec.gov/edgar/searchedgar/companysearch.html
[5]. https://finance.yahoo.com/
[6]. www.ciqportal.com
[7]. http://www.investopedia.com/
[8]. http://www.socscistatistics.com/tests/
[9]. http://stattrek.com/statistics/formulas.aspx
[10]. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Board_of_directors
[11].http://www.e-m-h.org/FGMT00.pdf
[12].http://www.eventstudytools.com/event-study-methodology
[13].Jonathan Moreland (2000), ‘Profit from legal Insider Trading’ Dearborn Trade, U.S. Vol. 1
[14].Slvain Friederich, Alan Gregor, John Matatko, and Lan Tonks (2000), ‘Stock Price Patterns
around Directors’ e-m-h.org
Page 31
8. ANNEXURE-1
COMPANY PROFILE
Page 32
8.1 COMPANY PROFILE
Capital IQ was founded in 1999 by Neal Goldman, Steve Turner and Randall Winn. They sold
the business to McGraw Hill in 2004 and Randall Winn served as the CEO/Executive Managing
Director of Capital IQ, Inc., operating the business as a relatively standalone subsidiary until
April 1, 2011. At that point, Winn left and the company and its various functions were fully
merged with other parts of S&P to become part of McGraw-Hill Financial.
Capital IQ is a leading provider of financial and industry data, research, news and analytics to
investment professionals, government agencies, corporations, and universities worldwide.
Capital IQ integrates news, comprehensive market and sector-specific data and analytics into a
variety of tools to help clients track performance, generate alpha, identify investment ideas,
understand competitive and industry dynamics, perform valuations.
8.2 ABOUT PARENT COMPANY
 S&P Global Inc., formerly known as McGraw-Hill Financial(1888)
 Standard & Poor’s and McGraw-Hill Financial are two different companies.
 In 1966, The McGraw-Hill Companies were acquired S&P to extending McGraw-Hill
into the field of financial information services.
 S&P Global (formerly McGraw-Hill Financial) is now a provider of credit ratings,
benchmarks, and analytics for the global capital and commodity markets. The company
was a leading publisher of textbooks, tests, and related materials, serving the elementary,
secondary, and higher education markets through McGraw-Hill Education (MHE) before
it spun that business off in 2013. Other businesses include S&P Ratings (indexes and
credit ratings), S&P Capital IQ and S&P Indices (financial and business information),
Page 33
and Commodities and Commercial (Platt’s, J.D. Power and Associates, McGraw-Hill
Construction, and Aviation Week).
 In 2016 McGraw Hill Financial (NYSE: MHFI) was rebranded as S&P Global by CEO
Douglas L. Peterson and change its ticker symbol to (NYSE: SPG
 S&P Global divisions include, S&P Global Intelligence, S&P Ratings, S&P Dow Jones,
S&P Global Platt’s.
 S&P Global Market Intelligence is formerly known as S&P Capital IQ (before April
2016)
 Capital IQ grew organically and through acquisition.
Reported acquisitions included: Simply Stocks (an Indian fundamental data provider), Heale
Financial (a provider of international ownership data), Carifi (a provider of software and services
to quantitative portfolio managers) and TheMarkets.com (a provider of aggregated research
solutions). On February 9, 2012, S&P Capital IQ announced it has acquired R2 Financial
Technologies, a leading provider of advanced risk and scenario-based analytics to traders,
portfolio and risk managers for pricing, hedging and capital management across asset classes.
Terms of the deal were not disclosed. On 3 April 2012, S&P Capital IQ acquired the privately
owned Quant House to provide McGraw Hill Financial tools in the real-time space as the group
tries to accelerate growth in the financial services business, which competes with Bloomberg,
Thomson Reuters and Fact set. Terms of the deal were not disclosed. Quant House will provide
end-to-end systematic low-latency market data solutions and offers real-time monitors, derived
data sets and analytics as well as the ability to package and resell this data as part of a core
solution for S&P Capital IQ. On 29 June 2012, S&P Capital IQ acquired Credit Market Analysis
Limited (CMA) from the CME group. CMA provides independent data concerning the over-the-
counter markets. CMA’s data and technology will enhance S&P Capital IQ's capability to
provide pricing and related over-the-counter information.
 S&P Global listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the ticker is SPGI
Page 34
 Supported by more than 10,000 employees
 Douglas L. Peterson is the CEO of S&P capital IQ.
 Operating in 20 countries worldwide.
 Harnessing 135 billion data points a year.
10.3 OPERATIONS
S&P Capital IQ provides web-based information services that combine information on
companies worldwide along with a variety of software applications that allow financial
professionals to analyze company fundamentals, build financial models, screen for investment
ideas, and execute other financial research tasks. Capital IQ serves more than 4,200 clients,
including investment banks, investment management firms, private equity firms, universities,
consultants, and corporations.
Components of Capital IQ’s offering include data on public companies, private companies,
auditable company Financials, M&A/financial transactions, public offerings, corporate
executives and board directors, compensation, news, filings, screening tools, chart builder, Excel
Plug-In modeling tool, real-time market data and news, relationship tree, macroeconomic data,
industry analysts and investment research.
10.4 S&P GLOBAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE
S&P Global Market Intelligence was born from the integration of S&P Capital IQ and SNL
Financial.
S&P Global Market Intelligence is a provider of multi-asset class and real-time data, research,
and analytics to institutional investors, investment and commercial banks, investment advisors
and wealth managers, corporations, and universities.
S&P Global Market Intelligence provides financial and industry data, research, news, and
analytics to investment professionals, government agencies, corporations, and universities
worldwide.
It collects, interprets, analyzes, and connects large amounts of financial and industry data and
turns it into actionable intelligence to help clients make business and financial decisions. The
company integrates news, market and sector-specific data, and analytics into various tools that
Page 35
help its clients to track performance, generate alpha, identify investment ideas, understand
competitive and industry dynamics, perform valuation, and assess credit risk.
It delivers analytic measures, company data, pricing and market data, reference data and
classifications, and ratings and research through various Web-based platforms, including desktop
platforms, mobiles, data feeds, and on-demand solutions.
Every day at S&P Global Market Intelligence collect, scrub, interpret, and analyze vast volumes
of content, turning it into actionable intelligence on the global financial markets and the
companies and industries that comprise those markets.
S&P Global Market Intelligence delivers the data and insight you need to make informed smarter
The company was formerly known as S&P Capital IQ, Inc. And changed its name to S&P Global
Market Intelligence in February 2016.
The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in New York, New York with regional
headquarters in London, United Kingdom; and Kowloon, Hong Kong.
It also has locations in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Italy,
Malaysia, Mexico, Pakistan, the Philippines, the Russian Federation, South Africa, Spain,
Sweden, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States. S&P Global Market Intelligence
operates as a subsidiary of S&P Global, Inc.
S&P Global Market Intelligence operates as a subsidiary of S&P Global, Inc.
The company integrates news, market and sector-specific data, and analytics into various tools
that help its clients to track performance, generate alpha, identify investment ideas, understand
competitive and industry dynamics, perform valuation, and assess credit risk.
VISION
“To be the leading provider of transparent and independent benchmarks & ratings, analytics
data and research in the global capital, commodity and corporate markets”
MISSION
“Promote sustainable growth in the global capital, commodity and corporate markets by
providing customers with essential intelligence and superior services.
Page 36
8.5 EMERGENCE OF S&P GLOBAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE
 1999: Capital IQ formed
 2004: Capital IQ sold to McGraw Hill Financial
 2010: S&P capital IQ formed
 2011: S&P capital IQ merged with McGraw Hill Financial
 2015: McGraw Hill Financial acquires SNL Financial
 2016: S&P Global Market Intelligence formed
8.6 COMPETITORS
8.7 SERVICES & CLIENT SOLUTIONS
DATA
S&P Global Market Intelligence is provides well of high-quality data. Access extensive market
and financial data, proprietary research, powerful analytics, and more —all compiled from
millions of sources and delivered in milliseconds.
What data matters most?
1) Analytic Measures
2) Company Data
Page 37
3) Pricing & Market Data
4) Ratings & Research
5) Reference Data & Classifications
SECTOR INTELLIGENCE
S&P Global Market Intelligence provides unmatched in our global reach across a broad range of
sectors, including breaking news, financial data, and expert analysis, updated continuously to
give clients the most current and cutting-edge insights
What sectors matter most?
1) Banking & Financial Services
2) Energy
3) Insurance
4) Media & Communications
5) Metals & Mining
6) Real Estate
DELIVERY
S&P Global Market Intelligence web-based platforms are easy to use and cater to the specific
needs of different market segments. With robust tools for analysis, idea generation, and
workflow management, and help you turn extensive information into action-ready insights.
8.8 CLIENT SOLUTIONS
1. CREDIT ANALYSIS:
Measure, Mitigate and Manage credit risk for public and private companies, and make informed
decisions that can potentially improve risk adjusted return to gain a competitive advantage
through the use of fundamental and risk data, ratings and research, profitability of default and
loss given default models, and analytical services including validation and stress testing
capabilities.
2. QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS:
Based on Vast high-quality data, tools and analytics available at S&P capital IQ support even the
robust data and complex qualitative analysis
Page 38
3. FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS:
Provides information on almost every aspect of a company, it also provides detailed insights into
related companies , takes a look up the supply chain to uncover any potential problems and takes
a detailed look at its equity and debt profile.
4. PORTFOLIO AND RISK ANALYSIS:
S&P capital IQ clients can build, monitor and restructure portfolios with confidence.
5. IDEA CREATION
Company provides inspiration and insight to help turn client’s great ideas into breakthrough
ideas. Extensive datasets , up-to-the-minute news feed and exhaustive fundamental data on
companies help lay the foundation of thinking outside the box, and company’s analytics,
workflow and modeling tools help test and refine ideas to help thinking shine.
6. RESEARCH:
S&P capital IQ provides a full spectrum of proprietary and aggregated sell-side research on a
broad range of companies, sectors, markets and economies.
7. INVESTMENT STRATEGY:
S&P capital IQ investment strategies are built on proprietary fundamental and quantitative
disciplines by leveraging proprietary assets of the S&P capital IQ, S&P Dow Jones Indices, and
Standard and Poor’s Ratings Services Franchises.
8. REAL TIME SOLUTIONS:
The landscape of the real time market data space is changing rapidly. S&P capital IQ’s
proprietary global network and multi-asset class market data and content
10.9 AWARDS AND RECOGNITIONS
1) Best Counterparty Data Provider 2016
S&P Global Market intelligence won the “Best Counterparty Data Provider” category at the
2016 Inside Market Data and Inside Reference Data Awards.
2) Best Analytics Provider for 2015:
S&P Capital IQ was honoured at Inside Market Data (IMD) Awards program by “Best Analytics
Provider” for 2015. This marks the sixth year in a row that they have won the best Analytics
Provider Award.
Page 39
Table 5: KEY PERSONNEL AT S&P GLOBAL
Name Title Image
Peterson, Douglas L CEO, President, Executive
Director- S&P Global
Mike Chinn President
Nick Cafferillo Chief Operating Officer
David Pearce Chief Financial Officer
Nancy Gardner Chief Legal Officer
Anna Sharkey Head of Human Resources
Page 40
Table 6: STOCK QUOTE ON JUNE-16-2016 OF S&P GLOBAL (Currency: INR)
Last 7,230.85 Market Cap (mm) 1,913,283.5
Open 7,151.47 Shares Out. (mm) 264.6
Previous Close 7,230.85 Float % 99.5%
Change on Day 27.58 Shares Sold Short (mm 3.5
Change % on Day 0.4% Dividend Yield % 1.3%
Day High/low 7,243.65/7,093.29 Diluted EPS Excl. Extra
Items
283.10
52 week High/ Low 7,584.69/5,284.06 P/Diluted EPS Before Extra 25.54x
Volume (mm) 0.66 Avg 3M Dly Vlm (mm ) 1.11
Beta 5Y 1.11
Last Updated on Jun-16-2016 12:00 AM (GMT-5)
Figure 2: STOCK PERFORMANCE OF S&P GLOBAL INC. OVER 10 YEARS
0.00
10.00mm
20.00mm
30.00mm
40.00mm
50.00mm
60.00mm
70.00mm
0.00
1,000.00
2,000.00
3,000.00
4,000.00
5,000.00
6,000.00
7,000.00
8,000.00
9,000.00
S&P Global, Inc. (NYSE:SPGI) - Volume
Page 41
Table 7 : FINANCIAL INFORMATION OF S&P GLOBAL (Currency: INR, in mm)
Total Revenue 361,979. Market Capitalization 1,913,283.5
EBITDA 151,223.0 Total Enterprise Value 2,135,879.9
EBIT 140,056.1 Cash & ST Invest. 107,632.0
Net Income 77,158.7 Total Debt 265,111.1
Capital Expenditure (9,350.5) Total Assets 555,717.5
Last Updated on Jun-16-2016 12:00 AM (GMT-5
Figure 2 : S&P GLOBAL OPERATING PERFORMANCE
Dec-31-
2012A
Dec-31-
2013A
Dec-31-
2014A
Dec-31-
2015A
Mar-31-
2016A
Total Revenue 287,242.90 316,303.50 339,780.80 357,405.50 361,979.90
Gross Profit 190,845.00 211,093.30 230,332.50 244,930.10 246,342.70
EBITDA 99,895.90 115,368.00 131,512.80 148,666.70 151,223.00
EBIT 90,410.90 106,152.10 122,498.70 138,105.30 140,056.10
0.00
50,000.00
100,000.00
150,000.00
200,000.00
250,000.00
300,000.00
350,000.00
400,000.00
Operating Performace
Total Revenue
Gross Profit
EBITDA
EBIT
Page 42
Table 8 : PROFITABILITY&MARGIN ANALYSIS RATIOS OF S&P GLOBAL
Profitability 31-Mar-
2016
Return on Assets 19.0%
Return on Capital 33.9%
Return on Equity 97.5%
Margin Analysis 31-Mar-
2016
Gross Margin 68.1%
Operating Margin 38.7%
Net Income Margin 21.3%
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence Database, Company website
Page 43
9. ANNEXURE-2
LITERATURE REVIEW
Page 44
Through history a great number of studies have been devoted to the topic of insider transactions.
These studies focus on the effects of insider trading for the outsiders. This study will mainly be
focused on the effects of insider transactions on security returns, which in turn can be interesting
for outsiders. Specifically, it will research if a possibility to earn abnormal returns on mimicking
the actions of corporate insiders exists. Insiders possess valuable private information about their
companies. If they trade, there can be made valid inferences regarding future movements in the
prices of stocks
Numerous studies, such as Lorie and Niederhoffer (1968) Pratt and DeVere (1970) Jaffe (1974),
and Finnerty (1976) among others, conclude that insiders earn significant abnormal profits by
trading the securities of their own firms.’ Estimates of insiders’ abnormal profits in these studies
vary from 3% to 30% during holding periods of eight months to three years. Surprisingly, insider
trading studies also report that even uninformed outsiders can earn significant abnormal profits
by imitating insiders. Outsiders can purchase stock following insider stock purchases, sell stock
following insider stock sales using publicly available insider trading information, and thereby
also earn 3% to 30% abnormal profits.
According to H. NEJAT SEYHUN (1984) shows that, during the 100 days following the insider
trading day, stock prices rise abnormally by 3.0% for purchases and decline abnormally by 1.7%
for sales. During the 100 days prior to the insider trading day, stock prices decline abnormally by
1.4% for purchases and rise abnormally by 2.5% for sales. And also indicates that most of the
abnormal stock price adjustment occurs during the 100 days following the insider trading day.
For the overall sample, the stock price adjustment between days 101 and 300 is 0.8% which is
insignificantly different from zero.
Above results suggest that insider do possess market timing ability in that they buy after a run
down in prices and sell after a run up in prices with reversals immediately following the trades.
The market views insiders’ purchases as a more credible signal about a firm’s future prospects
than insiders’ sell trades. There is evidence that prices fall after an insider sell transaction, and
rise after an insider buy transaction.
A counter example is a recent study by Eckbo and Smith (1998) that finds that insiders of firms
listed on Oslo Stock Exchange do not earn abnormal profits. The performance analysis rejects
the hypothesis of positive abnormal performance by Insider trading.
Page 45
Insider in a corporation includes Directors, Officers, as well as any person or entity that
beneficially owns more than 10% of a company’s voting shares. The reason for all the attention
that goes to insiders’ activities is Company executives and directors know their business more
intimately than any other investors or analyst. They know when a new product is flying out the
door, when inventories are piling up, whether profit margins are expanding or whether
production costs are rising. There should be a way for investors to benefit from observing what
insiders are doing.
Further my objective of the research is to when Director (insider) sale of shares is really stock
prices are going to decline according to the above mentioned scholars reports or not.
Page 46
10. ANNEXURE-3
ANALYSIS AND FINDINGS DATA
Page 47
Table 9 : Actual and Expected returns on the event day of USA market
Insider Name Filing Date Company Name Actual Return Expected
Return
Zerkel James E II 6/27/2016 Shenandoah
Telecommunication
s Co
0.39% -1.45%
Henry Robert H. 6/22/2016 Devon Energy Corp -0.65% 0.00%
Levinson Marina 6/21/2016 Ellie Mae Inc 0.03% -0.07%
Levin Robert J
Dolan A Barr
Blasing Karen
Vautrinot
Suzanne M
6/21/2016 Symantec Corp 2.20% 0.13%
Baird Charles J 6/17/2016 Community Trust
Bancorp Inc
-1.55% -0.19%
Brockman Henry
W. Jr.
6/17/2016 Franklin Financial
Network Inc
-0.69% -0.13%
Broady George
K
6/21/2016 Natural Health
Trends Corp
-3.60% 0.64%
Druten Robert J 6/10/2016 Alliance Holdings
GP LP
0.55% -1.16%
Zelnak Stephen P
Jr
6/9/2016 Martin Marietta
Materials Inc
-0.30% -0.10%
Joulwan George
A
6/7/2016 Emergent
BioSolutions Inc
-0.84% 0.26%
Huddleston
William H IV
6/8/2016 Pinnacle Financial
Partners Inc
0.87% 0.39%
Dorman John C 5/17/2016 CoreLogic Inc 0.03% -0.30%
DUB
ANTHONY
6/23/2016 Range Resources
Corp
2.70% 0.34%
Page 48
VDirector
Smith Richard D
/co/
6/23/2016 Allied Motion
Technologies Inc
-1.85% 0.37%
Salerno Frederic
V
4/12/2016 Intercontinental
Exchange Inc
0.22% 0.87%
Forneri Jean
Marc
12/29/2015 Intercontinental
Exchange Inc
1.31% 1.07%
Nanninga
Cherrie
6/17/2016 Lifetime Brands Inc 0.92% -0.16%
Hoster David H
II
6/23/2016 EastGroup
Properties Inc
0.90% 1.16%
Hickey Kevin F 6/16/2016 WellCare Health
Plans Inc
-2.57% 0.24%
Bastiani Richard 6/10/2016 Abaxis Inc -2.90% -0.74%
Ax Peter L 6/15/2016 Meritage Homes
Corp
1.12% -0.28%
Jackson Alan G. 6/6/2016 Sanchez Energy
Corp
3.42% 1.14%
Carney Thomas
Brian
Maher Sean M
Garcia Gilbert A
Musk Kimbal 6/15/2016 Tesla Motors Inc 1.27% -0.25%
Stonesifer
Patricia Q
6/8/2016 Amazon.com Inc 0.40% 0.61%
Diromualdo
Robert F
6/7/2016 Ulta Salon
Cosmetics &
Fragrance Inc
1.03% 0.33%
Page 49
Table 10: Abnormal Returns on Event day and Abnormal retuns on Non-Event day
Company Name
Event
day(AR)
Non-Event
day(AR)
Shenandoah Telecommunications Co 1.843%
-0.519%
1.708%
1.416%
-0.586%
2.014%
1.900%
Devon Energy Corp -0.655%
3.390%
3.725%
2.332%
2.269%
-7.609%
-5.861%
Ellie Mae Inc 0.106%
-0.556%
0.777%
0.215%
-1.002%
0.548%
0.533%
Symantec Corp 2.066%
3.994%
1.302%
2.126%
-0.455%
1.236%
-0.876%
Community Trust Bancorp Inc -1.362%
-0.721%
-0.358%
-1.223%
1.371%
0.941%
-0.512%
Franklin Financial Network Inc -0.562%
0.482%
0.642%
0.076%
0.254%
2.243%
-1.264%
Natural Health Trends Corp -4.240%
-7.787%
4.223%
-4.399%
2.646%
-2.241%
Page 50
7.316%
Alliance Holdings GP LP 1.717%
0.210%
1.770%
-1.618%
-0.537%
-0.204%
4.039%
Martin Marietta Materials Inc -0.202%
-0.477%
-0.298%
0.963%
-0.963%
-0.567%
-0.559%
Emergent BioSolutions Inc -1.101%
-0.054%
0.267%
0.584%
-0.214%
-1.045%
-2.077%
Pinnacle Financial Partners Inc 0.478%
-0.429%
1.534%
-1.682%
-0.483%
0.883%
0.175%
CoreLogic Inc 0.322%
0.401%
0.431%
0.051%
-0.329%
-0.044%
-0.564%
Range Resources Corp 2.353%
-0.905%
3.773%
1.387%
-1.979%
-1.631%
-0.416%
Allied Motion Technologies Inc -2.221%
-1.388%
-1.848%
4.182%
-1.369%
-0.531%
0.601%
Intercontinental Exchange Inc -0.642%
-0.397%
-0.690%
Page 51
-0.233%
1.037%
-0.348%
0.786%
Intercontinental Exchange Inc 0.237%
-0.878%
0.460%
1.138%
0.315%
0.578%
-0.500%
Lifetime Brands Inc 1.086%
3.232%
-0.051%
-0.671%
0.018%
0.576%
-2.414%
EastGroup Properties Inc -0.260%
-0.143%
-0.467%
0.477%
1.108%
0.627%
-0.081%
WellCare Health Plans Inc -2.811%
0.249%
-3.109%
-0.889%
2.013%
7.039%
-1.582%
Abaxis Inc -2.159%
-1.086%
1.248%
0.675%
0.680%
0.122%
0.060%
Meritage Homes Corp 1.393%
-1.692%
-1.924%
-0.312%
-0.363%
2.481%
0.388%
Sanchez Energy Corp 2.278%
1.715%
-0.691%
-0.699%
6.373%
4.250%
Page 52
-1.236%
Tesla Motors Inc 1.522%
-3.422%
0.630%
-1.094%
-0.285%
-0.700%
1.230%
Amazon.com Inc -0.210%
-0.252%
-0.632%
-0.785%
0.118%
-0.486%
0.356%
Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance
Inc
0.700%
-0.340%
-0.073%
-0.658%
-0.479%
0.273%
0.814%

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IMPACT OF DIRECTOR TRANSACTION (SELL) ON COMPANY STOCK PRICES IN USA STOCK MARKET

  • 1. “IMPACT OF DIRECTOR TRANSACTION (SELL) ON COMPANY STOCK PRICES IN USA STOCK MARKET” AN EVENT STUDY AT S&P GLOBAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE (S&P GMI), HYDERABAD SHIAK FEROZ Roll No: 15M103 (PGDM Finance & Marketing) Project Report Submitted To Dhruva College of Management (DCM) (Approved by AICTE, Ministry of HRD, Govt. of India) N H: 44, Hyderabad-501 401 India In partial fulfillment of PGDM Program 2015-2017
  • 3. III I do hereby give the undertaking that the present study is a bona fide work and I have not submitted it for the award of any degree or diploma in any college or University apart from the Dhruva College of Management (Approved by AICTE, Ministry of HRD, Govt. of India). SHAIK FEROZ 15M103 Date: Place: Approved by PROF. SADAB ALAM Faculty Guide
  • 5. V Every work accomplished is a sense of satisfaction. However a number of people always motivate, criticize and appreciate a work with their ideas and opinions, hence I would like to use this opportunity to thank all, who have directly or indirectly helped me to accomplish this project. I would like to extend my sincere thanks to all of them. I am highly indebted to college guide, SADAB ALAM, Assistant Professor, Finance DCM, Medchal, for his guidance and constant supervision as well as for providing necessary information regarding the project and also for his support in completing the project. I would like to express my sincere thanks to Dr. S. PRATAP REDDY, Honorable Chairman of DCM, Medchal, for his help in providing good facilities during my summer internship project. I wish to express my sincere gratitude to Dr. U.B.RAJU, Dean, DCM, Medchal, for his consistent help during my summer internship. My heartful thanks to the Company Guide Mr. SURENDRA RAJU SIBBYAL (Team leader, S&P Capital IQ). Mr. RAMESH KUMAR MASANAM (Senior Research Analyst, S&P Capital IQ) and other employees at S&P Capital IQ for their valuable guidance and suggestions throughout the period. It would not have been viable to do this project efficiently and timely if I was not given altruistic and emotive abet by, Mr. V.S. CHANDRA SEKHAR (Director – Ownership & Investor Activism S&P Capital IQ India) who dealt with me patiently and showed me the lucid career path. I wish to convey my gratitude and express my sincere thanks to my parents and all faculty members for their support and cooperation rendered for successful submission of my project work. Finally, I would like to express my sincere thanks to my team members, who have contributed to this project with their valuable opinions and suggestions.
  • 7. VII
  • 9. IX S.NO CONTENT PAGE NO. 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 2 INTRODUCTION 3 3 OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY 11 4 METHODOLOGY 13 5 ANALYSIS AND FINDINGS 20 6 CONCLUSION 28 7 BIBLIOGRAPHY 30 8 ANNEXURE - 1 (COMPANY PROFILE) 32 9 ANNEXURE - 2 (LITERATURE REVIEW) 44 10 ANNEXURE - 3 (ANALYSIS AND FINDINGS DATA) 47
  • 11. XI S.NO CONTENT PAGE NO. 1 Data points of Director Sell shares in USA companies 14 2 t-Test for Actual Returns vs Expected Returns during Event Window 22 3 t-Test for Actual Return vs Expected Return on the Event day 23 4 t-Test for Event Days vs Non Event Days (Abnormal Returns) 24 5 Key personnel in S&P Global 39 6 Stock quotes on June-16-2016 of S&P Global 40 7 Financial Information about S&P Global 41 8 Profitability & Margin analysis ratios of S&P Global 42 9 Actual and Expected Returns during the Event day 47 10 Abnormal Returns on Event day and Abnormal retuns on Non-Event day 49
  • 13. XIII S.NO CONTENT PAGE NO. 1 Stock performance of S&P Global, Inc. Over 10 years 40 2 S&P Global Operating Performance 41
  • 15. Page 2 Director of a company is a key player in an organization, the reason for all the attention that goes to insiders’ activities is Company executives and Directors know their business more intimately than any other investors or analyst. This study will mainly be focused on the effects on stock returns when Director Sells his shares in his own company in the USA Markets. To proceed with my study, I have randomly selected 25 Director Sell transactions from the USA Companies during the period of 6 months from 29/12/2015 to 6/27/2016, and conducted an event study with an event window of 7 days, i.e. event day, 3 days prior to event day, and 3 days after the event day. I have used Market model (ER = Alpha + Beta * Index Return) the market model says that the return on a security depends on the return on the portfolio (Market Index) and the extent of the security's responsiveness as measured by beta and alpha If the actual return during the event window is not same as the expected return, it is considered to be an abnormal return. I have used t-test to see whether the abnormal return so calculated is statistically significant or not. I have done three statistical analysis for my study. My first analysis that compared the actual return against the expected return during event window, showed that there is no statistically significant difference between the actual return and the expected return during the event window. My second analysis that compared between the actual return and expected return only on the event day showed that there is no statistically significant difference between actual returns and expected returns on the event day.My third analysis that compared between the abnormal returns on the event day and the abnormal returns during the event window minus the event day, i.e. 6 days, two returns showed that there is no statistically significant difference between the abnormal return on the event day and abnormal return during the event window.Thus my entire analysis showed that there is no statistically significant impact on stock prices when the Director of publicly listed USA company sold shares in his own company.
  • 17. Page 4 2.1 COMPANY PROFILE S&P Global Market Intelligence (initially known as S&P Capital IQ) is a multinational financial information provider, headquartered in New York City, United States, and a division of S&P Global (McGraw Hill Financial.) S&P Capital IQ was formed in 2010 from offerings previously provided by Capital IQ, elements of S&P including Global Credit Portal and Market Scope Advisor, enterprise solutions such as S&P Securities Evaluations and Compustat, research offerings including Leveraged Commentary & Data, Global Markets Intelligence, and company and fund research. 2.1.1 HISTORY: Capital IQ was founded in 1999 by Neal Goldman, Steve Turner and Randall Winn. They sold the business to McGraw Hill in 2004 and Randall Winn served as the CEO/Executive Managing Director of Capital IQ, Inc. Operating the business as a relatively standalone subsidiary until April 1, 2011. At that point, Winn left and the company and its various functions were fully merged with other parts of S&P to become part of McGraw-Hill Financial. In 2015, McGraw Hill Financial acquired SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ and SNL Financial joined and formed as S&P Global Market Intelligence in 2016 in the same year McGraw Hill Financial changes its name to S&P Global. 2.1.2 OPERATIONS: S&P Capital IQ provides web-based information services that combine information on companies worldwide along with a variety of software applications that allow financial professionals to analyze company fundamentals, build financial models, screen for investment ideas, and execute other financial research tasks. Capital IQ serves more than 4,200 clients, including investment banks, investment management firms, private equity firms, universities, consultants, and corporations [2] . Its competitors include Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg L.P. and FactSet Research Systems. Components of Capital IQ’s offering include data on public companies, private companies, auditable company Financials, M&A/financing transactions, public offerings, corporate executives and board directors, compensation, news, filings, Screening tools, chart builder, Excel Plug-In modelling tool, real-time market data and news, relationship tree, macroeconomic data, industry analysis and investment research. The detailed company profile can be found in Annexure-1
  • 18. Page 5 2.2 LITERATURE REVIEW Do the actions of corporate insiders convey information about future company prospects which are not available elsewhere? In terms of informational efficiency, one issue is whether corporate insiders have the ability to time the market, and consequently generate benefits, either for their firms, or for themselves personally. If they are able to generate abnormal profits, this could be interpreted as evidence against strong-form efficiency. Typically, financial regulators assume that corporate insiders’ information is superior, and require that their actions be disclosed to the market. A second issue is whether outsiders may obtain excess returns from mimicking the signals sent by the insiders’ actions. Earlier work in the US by Jaffee (1974) and Finnerty (1976) had suggested that insiders are able to predict and exploit long-run subsequent returns. This apparent semi-strong form inefficiency was explained by Seyhun (1986) in terms of transaction costs of trading. Jaffe (1974) and Seyhun (1986) also reports evidence of abnormal returns immediately around the insiders’ trades. However, conflicting evidence has been produced in recent work by Lakonishok and Lee (1998) who find very little market reaction around the time when insiders trade. Previous work on directors’ trading using UK data identified excess returns in the months after the directors’ trades (Gregory, Matatko, Tonks, and Purkis (1994) and Gregory, Matatko, and Tonks (1997)), but returns during the month containing the trade were found to be not significantly different from zero. Also, in the latter study, the authors found that the price reaction in the months after the directors’ trades was, surprisingly, inversely related to the strength of the signal. We identify short run price patterns around directors’ trades: directors buy after a fall in share prices, after which share prices rise; and directors sell after a rise in share prices, which are then followed by a stock price decline. The detailed Literature review can be found in Annexure-2
  • 19. Page 6 2.3 INSIDERS TRADING Insider trading is the trading of a public company’s stock or other securities by individuals with access to non-public information about the company. In various countries, trading based on insider information is illegal. This is because it is seen as unfair to other investors who do not have access to the information as the investor with insider information could potentially make far larger profits that a typical investor could not make. 2.3.1 INSIDER TRADING ISN'T ALWAYS ILLEGAL Insiders legally buy and sell stock in their own company all of the time; their trading is restricted and illegal only at certain times and under certain conditions. The SEC considers insiders to be company directors, officials or any individual with a stake of 10% or more in the company. Insiders are required to report their insider transactions within two business days of the date the transaction occurred. For example, if an insider sold 10,000 shares on Monday, June 12, he or she would have to report this change by Wednesday, June 14. Changes in insider holdings are sent to the SEC electronically as a Form 4, which details a company's insider trade. A Form 14a, also filed by the company, lists all the directors and officers along with the shared interest they have. This kind of information is extremely valuable to individual investors. For example, if insiders are buying shares in their own companies, they usually know something that normal investors do not. They might buy because they see great potential, a merger and acquisition or simply because they think their stock is undervalued. One of the greatest investors of all time, Peter Lynch, was noted as saying that "insiders might sell their shares for any number of reasons, but they buy them for only one: they think the price will rise." Insiders are prevented from buying and selling their company stock within a six-month period: therefore, insiders buy stock when they feel the company will perform well over the long-term. 2.3.2 INSIDERS OF A COMPANY The insider is a term describing a director or senior officer of a company, as well as any person or entity that beneficially owns more than 10% of a company's voting shares. Directors A board of directors is a group of individuals that are elected as, representatives of stockholders to establish corporate management related policies and to make decisions on major company
  • 20. Page 7 issues. Every public company must have a board of directors. Some private and non-profit companies have a board of directors as well. Outside director An outside director is a member of the board who is not otherwise employed by or engaged with the organization, and does not represent any of its stakeholders. A typical example is a director who is president of a firm in a different industry. Inside director An inside director is a director who is also an employee, officer, major shareholder, or someone similarly connected to the organization. Inside directors represent the interests of the entity’s stakeholders, and often have special knowledge of its inner workings, its financial or market position, and so on. Typical inside directors are:  A chief executive officer (CEO) who may also be chairman.  Other executives of the organization, such as its chief financial officer (CFO) or executive vice president  Large shareholders (who may or may not also be employees or officers)  Representatives of other stakeholders such as labor unions, major lenders, or members of the community in which the organization is located DIRECTOR DUTIES  To convene Statutory, Annual General Meeting (AGM) and also Extraordinary General Meetings  To prepare and place at the AGM, along with the balance sheet and, profit and loss account, a report on the company’s affairs, including the report of the Board of Directors  To authenticate and approve the annual financial statement.  To appoint the first auditor of the company.  To appoint a cost auditor of the company.  To make a declaration of solvency in the case of a Members’ voluntary winding up.
  • 21. Page 8 APPOINTMENT OF DIRECTORS 1 By the articles as regards first directors. The first directors are usually named in the articles. The articles may also provide that both the number and the names of the first directors shall be determined in writing by the subscribers to the memorandum or a majority of them. 2 By the company in general meeting. Appointment of subsequent directors is made at every annual general meeting of the company. 2/3rd of the total number of directors of a public company must be appointed by the company in general meeting. 3 By the directors The directors are empowered to appoint i) Additional directors. ii) Alternate directors. iii) Directors filling casual vacancy REMOVAL OF DIRECTORS A director of a company can be removed by (a) Shareholders (b) Central government or The Court
  • 22. Page 9 2.3.3 US INSIDER TRADING Insider trading" is a term that most investors have heard and usually associate with illegal conduct. But the term actually includes both legal and illegal conduct. The legal version is when corporate insiders officers, directors buy and sell stock in their own companies. When corporate insiders trade in their own securities, they must report their trades to the SEC. Insiders are supposed to file Forms3, 4, 5. Every director, executive officer and every principal owner holding more than 10% of shares needs to make disclosures of their beneficial holdings in form 3, 4 and 5. The initial filing is on, Form 3 and changes are reported on Form 4. The Annual Statement of beneficial ownership of securities is on Form 5. Here beneficial holdings include those shares on which the reporting owner is having control. I.e., the owner needs to disclose his direct and indirect holdings in these forms. Generally, a person is deemed to have control over the shares, if the subject company shares are held by the relatives of the reporting persons, (or) if the shares are held by entities in which the reporting person has the ownership or management position, (or) if the shares are controlled by the reporting person through any agreement. So, every owner needs to disclose their direct and indirect interest in form 3, 4 and 5. However, the nature of interest (direct or indirect) will be disclosed in these forms and they will also disclose the names of the persons through whom they are holding the indirect shares in ‘Nature of Indirect Beneficial Ownership’ column or sometimes they will mention the names of actual owners in ‘footnotes’. 2.3.4 LEGAL INSIDERS FILLING Since 1934, according to US SEC Act 1934 Insiders are required to disclose their transactions in forms and documents. In 1984, SEC introduced EDGAR began collecting electronic documents of Insider transactions which is free access to more than 21 million filings to help investors getting information. FORM 3: Form 3 is an SEC filing filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission to indicate a preliminary insider transaction by an officer, director, or principal (10%) owner of the company's
  • 23. Page 10 securities. These are typically seen after a company IPO’s when insiders make their first transactions. After a Form 3 is filed, future filings of the same nature are filed under Form 4 (standard disclosure) or Form 5 (annual disclosure). When to file: 1. An insider of an issuer that is registered equity securities for the first time under Section 12 of the Exchange Act must file this Form no later than the effective date of the registration statement. 2. If the issuer is already registered under Section 12, the insider must file a Form 3 within ten days of becoming an officer, director, or beneficial owner. FORM 4: A Form 4 must be filed before the end of the second business day following a change in ownership of securities or derivative securities (including the exercise or grant of stock options) for individuals subject to Section 16 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 The forms contain information on the reporting person's relationship to the company and on purchases and sales of such equity securities. When to file: 1. Within 2 days from the date of acquisition of shares. FORM 5: Form 5 is an SEC filing submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission on an annual basis by company’s officers, directors and Principal Owners holding more than 10% of shares. This form will be filed to disclose the following- 1. If any transactions exempted under the section 16 (b) are there during the issuer’s most recent fiscal year. 2. Any small acquisition or series of acquisitions in a six month period during the issuer’s fiscal year not exceeding $10,000 in market value. 3. Any transactions or holdings that should have been reported during the issuer’s fiscal year on a Form 3 or Form 4, but were not reported. When to file: 1. Within 45 days after the end of the company's fiscal year.
  • 24. Page 11 3. OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY
  • 25. Page 12  The objective of my research is to study whether there is any impact on stock prices of a company in the US stock market when the Director of the company sells his/her shares.
  • 27. Page 14 4.1 DATA COLLECTION SOURCE The data collected is about the Director Sell shares and their respective companies' stock prices along with the market index is collected from various sources like  Google  Yahoo Finance  Company's website  EDGAR  SEC TYPE The data collected for the study is secondary data. SAMPLE SIZE A sample of 25 Director Sell events has been used in this study comprising of 25 Companies from USA Markets. Table 1: Director Sell shares in USA companies Company Name Director Name Share Price Shares Traded Shares Owned Own chg Shenandoah Telecommunications Co Zerkel James E II $36.46 -1,500 55,645 -3% Devon Energy Corp Henry Robert H. $37.43 -7,100 9,748 -42% Ellie Mae Inc Levinson Marina $86.06 -1,588 8,138 -16% Levin Robert J $86.06 -635 9,708 -6% Dolan A Barr $86.06 -635 4,368 -13% Blasing Karen $86.06 -1,208 5,276 -19% Symantec Corp Vautrinot Suzanne M $20.60 -3,750 36,732 -9%
  • 28. Page 15 Community Trust Bancorp Inc Baird Charles J $35.52 -8,000 212,167 -4% Franklin Financial Network Inc Brockman Henry W. Jr. $31.45 -1,500 61,800 -2% Natural Health Trends Corp Broady George K $28.27 -23,290 925,588 -2% Alliance Holdings GP LP Druten Robert J $19.60 -12,825 7,538 -63% Martin Marietta Materials Inc Zelnak Stephen P Jr $188.9 0 -3,000 16,689 -15% Emergent BioSolutions Inc Joulwan George A $44.12 -4,700 20,785 -18% Pinnacle Financial Partners Inc Huddleston William H IV $50.21 -2,000 85,949 -2% CoreLogic Inc Dorman John C $37.13 -7,500 15,533 -33% Range Resources Corp DUB ANTHONY VDirector $44.96 -3,000 105,352 -3% $46.45 -2,106 -2% Allied Motion Technologies Inc Smith Richard D /co/ $21.95 -10,000 576,670 -2% Intercontinental Exchange Inc Salerno Frederic V $232.6 2 -837 3,253 -20% Intercontinental Exchange Inc Forneri Jean Marc $255.0 0 -2,500 16,924 -13% Lifetime Brands Inc Nanninga Cherrie $15.89 -5,000 25,442 -16% EastGroup Properties Inc Hoster David H II $68.00 -8,000 244,467 -3% WellCare Health Plans Inc Hickey Kevin F $105.5 6 -1,000 14,300 -7% Abaxis Inc Bastiani Richard $46.75 -5,000 50,700 -9% Meritage Homes Corp Ax Peter L $36.71 -15,000 60,000 -20% Sanchez Energy Corp Jackson Alan G. $8.05 -7,936 79,115 -9% Carney Thomas Brian $8.11 -6,349 35,534 -15%
  • 29. Page 16 Maher Sean M $8.09 -3,968 49,671 -7% Garcia Gilbert A $8.05 -7,936 77,315 -9% Tesla Motors Inc Musk Kimbal $224.3 7 -460 151,865 0% Amazon.com Inc Stonesifer Patricia Q $726.2 7 -6,250 12,923 -33% Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc Diromualdo Robert F $237.0 9 -2,500 410,537 -1% 4.2 EVENT STUDY An event study methodology is used to conduct this study and to know the stock market reaction to Director Sale shares. An event is some change, development, announcement that may produce a relatively large change in the price of the asset over some period. There are many kinds of events happening in a firm like  Executive changes  Stock splits  Earnings announcements  Mergers and acquisitions  Dividend release  Bonus  Company expansions  Regulatory changes An Event study is a statistical method to assess the impact of an event on the value of a firm. Conceptually, event study analyses differentiate between the returns that would have been expected if the analyzed event would not have taken place (expected returns) and the returns that were caused by the respective event (abnormal returns). The event study methodology is designed to investigate the effect of an event on a specific dependant variable. A commonly used dependent variable in event studies is the stock price of the company. A study of the changes in stock price beyond expectation (Abnormal Returns) over a period of time (event window) is an
  • 30. Page 17 event study. The event study methodology seeks to determine whether there is an abnormal stock price effect associated with an event. From this, the significance of the event can be inferred. 4.3 MARKET MODEL The market model is the most common analysis used for event study. The market model says that the return on a security depends on the return on the market portfolio and the extent of the security's responsiveness as measured by beta. The return also depends on conditions that are unique to the firm. In order to calculate the abnormal returns, i.e the returns that can be attributed to the event of interest, first need to estimate the expected return for the event date. This is the hypothetical return that would have occurred in the absence of the event examining. Alpha is the Y intercept of the regression line. In other words, if the benchmark returned 0%, the Y intercept would tell us what the security could be expected to return. For instance, the alpha is 2.23%. That means if the benchmark returned 0%, we would expect our security to return 2.23%. BETA of a security indicates whether the security is more or less volatile than the market. In general, a beta less than 1 indicates that the security is less volatile than the market, while a beta more than 1 indicates that the security is more volatile than the market.
  • 31. Page 18 4.4 EVENT WINDOW The event window is the period over which the related security prices will be examined. (T0- T1) Estimation window (T1- T2) Event window 0 Event day (T2- T3) Post event window The estimation window period is useful to calculate the important parameters that will give us the expected returns during the event period. ESTIMATION WINDOW: In this study 252 days prior to the event window is considered as the estimation window period. Stock prices of 252 trading days prior to the event as well as market price on the same 252 days are considered. EVENT WINDOW A total of 7 day event window is considered for the study. 3 days prior to the event, event day, 3 days after the event are considered.
  • 32. Page 19 4.5 METHOD OF CALCULATION  The returns of the firm's stock, as well as the returns of the reference index are calculated using the formula mentioned below.  252 days of estimation window is considered to calculate the alpha (𝛼), beta (𝛽), using excel formulas intercept, slope, respectively.  To calculate the expected returns throughout the event window, alpha, beta values along with actual market returns on that particular day are used.  Abnormal returns are calculated by deducting expected returns from the actual returns of the firm's stock throughout the event window. ABNORMAL RETURN = ACTUAL RETURN – EXPECTED RETURN  To know the statistical significant relation between returns I used t-test in this analysis. t-TEST A t-test is an analysis of two populations means through the use of statistical examination; a t- test with two samples is commonly used with small sample sizes,testing the difference between the samples when the variances of two normal distributions are not known. T t-test examines two opposing hypothesis about a population: the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis. The null hypothesis is the statement being tested. Usually the null hypothesis is a statement of "no effect" or "no difference". The alternative hypothesis is the statement we want to be able to conclude is true. Based on the sample data, the test determines whether to reject the null hypothesis. We use a p- value, to make the determination. If the p-value is less than or equal to the level of significance, then we can reject the null hypothesis.
  • 33. Page 20 5. ANALYSIS AND FINDINGS
  • 34. Page 21 USA To conduct this study companies listed in the NASDAQ and NYSE, which publicly announced Director Sell shares in the 6 month period between the 12/29/2015 to 6/27/2016. 25 USA Companies in which Director Sell took place in that period along with that S&P 500 index returns are also collected as per the events. To study further whether the event of a Director Sell affects the stock market or not. I have employed 3 tests. I) Studying impact of Director Sell on stock returns compare to company's actual return and the expected return during the Event Window. II) Comparison between the actual return and the expected return on the event day. III) Comparison between abnormal returns of event day and the non-event days in the event window. 5.1 COMPARISON BETWEEN ACTUAL RETURNS AND THE EXPECTED RETURNS DURING THE EVENT WINDOW: My first test is a comparison between actual returns of the event window and the expected returns of the event window. This test is done using two sample t test using unequal variances. H0 - The Null hypothesis states that there is no statistically significant difference between the actual returns of the event window and the expected returns of the event window. ACTUAL RETURNS OF = EXPECTED RETURNS OF EVENT WINDOW EVENT WINDOW H1 – The Alternative hypothesis states that there is statistically significant difference between the actual returns of the event window and the expected returns during the event window. ACTUAL RETURNS OF ≠ EXPECTED RETURNS OF EVENT WINDOW EVENT WINDOW The two sample t-test using unequal variances is performed and the results are mentioned in the below table
  • 35. Page 22 Table 2 : t-Test for Actual returns vs Expected Returns on Event window. Actual Returns Vs Expected Returns on Event window t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances Actual Returns on event window Expected Returns on event window Mean 0.000506421 -0.000855024 Variance 0.000449848 0.000125499 Observations 175 175 Hypothesized Mean Difference 0 df 264 t Stat 0.750851888 P (T<=t) one-tail 0.226705266 t Critical one-tail 1.65064591 P (T<=t) two-tail 0.453410531 t Critical two-tail 1.968990497 From the results the t-stat value is 0.7508 and the t Critical two tail value is 1.9689. The t-stat value is less than the t-Critical value. Hence Null Hypothesis is accepted. So, there is no statistically significant difference between actual returns and the expected returns during the event window.
  • 36. Page 23 5.2 COMPARISON BETWEEN ACTUAL RETURN AND THE EXPECTED RETURN ON THE EVENT DAY: My second test is comparison of abnormal and expected return on the event day. This test is done using two sample t test using unequal variances. H0 - The Null hypothesis states that the Actual return is equal to the Expected return on the event day. H1 - The Alternative hypothesis states that the Actual return is not equal to the Expected return of the event day. The Director Sale along with their actual return on the event day and expected return on the event day are mentioned in the Annexure 3. The two sample t-test using unequal variances is performed and the results are mentioned in the below table. Table 3 : t-Test for Actual return vs Expected return on the event day. Actual Returns Vs Expected Returns t-Test Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances Actual Return on event day Expected Return on event day Mean 0.000960342 0.001090185 Variance 0.000282516 4.17212E-05 Observations 25 25 df 31 t Stat -0.036054194 P(T<=t) one-tail 0.485735158 t Critical one-tail 1.695518783 P (T<=t) two-tail 0.971470316
  • 37. Page 24 t Critical two-tail 2.039513446 From the results the t-stat value is -0.0360 and the t Critical two tail value is 2.0395. The t-stat value is less than the t-Critical value. Hence The Null Hypothesis is accepted. So, there is no statistically significant difference between the actual return and the expected return during the event day. The date of second t-Test found in Annexure – 3 5.3 COMPARISION BETWEEN ABNORMAL RETURNS ON THE EVENT DAY AND THE NON EVENT DAYS IN THE EVENT WINDOW: My third test is a comparison between abnormal returns of the event day and the non-event days in the event window. This test is done using two sample t test using unequal variances. H0 - The Null hypothesis states that there is no statistically significant difference between the abnormal returns on the event day and the non-event days in the event window. H1 - The Alternative hypothesis states that there is statistically significant difference between the abnormal returns on the event day and the non-event days in the event window. The two sample t-test using unequal variances is performed and the results are mentioned in the below table. Table 4 : t-Test for Event Days vs Non Event Days (Abnormal Returns). Event Days Vs Non Event Days (Abnormal Returns) t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances AR ON EVENT AR ON NON-EVENT DAY
  • 38. Page 25 From the results the t-stat value is -0.4646 and the t Critical two tail value is 2.0261. The t-stat value is less than the t-Critical value. Hence The Null Hypothesis is accepted. So, there is no statistically significant difference between abnormal return on event day and the abnormal returns on the non-event days in the event window. The data of t-Test can be found in Annexure – 3 DAY Mean -0.000129843 0.001609993 Variance 0.00028127 0.000415091 Observations 25 150 Hypothesized Mean Difference 0 df 37 t Stat -0.464690756 P (T<=t) one-tail 0.322437999 t Critical one-tail 1.68709362 P (T<=t) two-tail 0.644875998 t Critical two-tail 2.026192463
  • 40. Page 27 As part of my summer internship program I have gone through the reports of insider filings of US listed companies, so I have undertaken this study to find whether there is any statistical significant difference between the actual and expected returns and abnormal returns during the event window. The object of my study is to know the impact on stock prices when a Director Sell shares in his company. The study shows that the company's stock price does not react to insider filing announcement. Director Sell is a signal to the market that there is some negative news and actions are going to occur that which weaken the image and financial position of the company. Investors believe that Director Sell shares in his own company is always negative news for the market thus, majority of the companies react negatively. To fulfill the objectives of my study, I have taken 25 companies, which involved Director Sell shares during the period of 6 months from 29/12/2015 to 6/27/2016. My research is an event study in which I have considered +3 and -3 days of window from the event day. To obtain accurate results from the window I have taken 252 trading days to get accurate alpha (intercept) and Beta (slope) values. I have taken 252 days stock prices of the company and as well as the returns for both the company and market were calculated in percentages to see the trend of the company and the market in past one year. Using these returns intercept, slope was calculated for 252 days. These Intercept Values, Slope Values, were used in calculation of expected returns, abnormal returns, and t stat values. I have done three t- test analysis for my study. Three analysis were conducted for the study. In the first analysis, I have compared to companies actual return and the expected return during the event window using t-test. The t-stat value is -0.0360 and the t Critical two tail value is 2.0395. The t-stat value is less than the t-Critical value. So, there is no statistically significant difference between the actual return and the expected return on the event day. Secondly, actual return and expected return only during the event day of USA 25 companies were compared using t-test. The analysis showed that t-stat value is -0.0360 and the t Critical two tail value is 2.0395. The t-stat value is less than the t-Critical value. So, there is no statistically significant difference between the actual return and the expected return on the event day. Lastly, I have compared between the abnormal returns of 25 companies of the USA on the event day and the abnormal returns during the event window minus the event day, i.e. 6 days using t- stat. My analysis showed that the t-stat value is -0.4646 and the t Critical two tail value is 2.0261. The t-stat value is less than the t-Critical value So, there is no statistically significant difference
  • 41. Page 28 between abnormal return on event day and the abnormal returns on the non-event days in the event window. Therefore, by conducting these analysis I can say that the stock market is not much affected by the insider trading event by Director Sell shares. From my analysis I would like to conclude that American stock markets is not highly volatile to the changes that happen in the company Director Sell shares. So investors need not depend upon the share holding patterns of insiders to make investment decisions, as the study shows there is no significant difference in the stock returns and performances.
  • 43. Page 30 [1]. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_Capital_IQ [2]. http://www.spcapitaliq.com/ [3]. http://openinsider.com/ [4]. https://www.sec.gov/edgar/searchedgar/companysearch.html [5]. https://finance.yahoo.com/ [6]. www.ciqportal.com [7]. http://www.investopedia.com/ [8]. http://www.socscistatistics.com/tests/ [9]. http://stattrek.com/statistics/formulas.aspx [10]. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Board_of_directors [11].http://www.e-m-h.org/FGMT00.pdf [12].http://www.eventstudytools.com/event-study-methodology [13].Jonathan Moreland (2000), ‘Profit from legal Insider Trading’ Dearborn Trade, U.S. Vol. 1 [14].Slvain Friederich, Alan Gregor, John Matatko, and Lan Tonks (2000), ‘Stock Price Patterns around Directors’ e-m-h.org
  • 45. Page 32 8.1 COMPANY PROFILE Capital IQ was founded in 1999 by Neal Goldman, Steve Turner and Randall Winn. They sold the business to McGraw Hill in 2004 and Randall Winn served as the CEO/Executive Managing Director of Capital IQ, Inc., operating the business as a relatively standalone subsidiary until April 1, 2011. At that point, Winn left and the company and its various functions were fully merged with other parts of S&P to become part of McGraw-Hill Financial. Capital IQ is a leading provider of financial and industry data, research, news and analytics to investment professionals, government agencies, corporations, and universities worldwide. Capital IQ integrates news, comprehensive market and sector-specific data and analytics into a variety of tools to help clients track performance, generate alpha, identify investment ideas, understand competitive and industry dynamics, perform valuations. 8.2 ABOUT PARENT COMPANY  S&P Global Inc., formerly known as McGraw-Hill Financial(1888)  Standard & Poor’s and McGraw-Hill Financial are two different companies.  In 1966, The McGraw-Hill Companies were acquired S&P to extending McGraw-Hill into the field of financial information services.  S&P Global (formerly McGraw-Hill Financial) is now a provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, and analytics for the global capital and commodity markets. The company was a leading publisher of textbooks, tests, and related materials, serving the elementary, secondary, and higher education markets through McGraw-Hill Education (MHE) before it spun that business off in 2013. Other businesses include S&P Ratings (indexes and credit ratings), S&P Capital IQ and S&P Indices (financial and business information),
  • 46. Page 33 and Commodities and Commercial (Platt’s, J.D. Power and Associates, McGraw-Hill Construction, and Aviation Week).  In 2016 McGraw Hill Financial (NYSE: MHFI) was rebranded as S&P Global by CEO Douglas L. Peterson and change its ticker symbol to (NYSE: SPG  S&P Global divisions include, S&P Global Intelligence, S&P Ratings, S&P Dow Jones, S&P Global Platt’s.  S&P Global Market Intelligence is formerly known as S&P Capital IQ (before April 2016)  Capital IQ grew organically and through acquisition. Reported acquisitions included: Simply Stocks (an Indian fundamental data provider), Heale Financial (a provider of international ownership data), Carifi (a provider of software and services to quantitative portfolio managers) and TheMarkets.com (a provider of aggregated research solutions). On February 9, 2012, S&P Capital IQ announced it has acquired R2 Financial Technologies, a leading provider of advanced risk and scenario-based analytics to traders, portfolio and risk managers for pricing, hedging and capital management across asset classes. Terms of the deal were not disclosed. On 3 April 2012, S&P Capital IQ acquired the privately owned Quant House to provide McGraw Hill Financial tools in the real-time space as the group tries to accelerate growth in the financial services business, which competes with Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Fact set. Terms of the deal were not disclosed. Quant House will provide end-to-end systematic low-latency market data solutions and offers real-time monitors, derived data sets and analytics as well as the ability to package and resell this data as part of a core solution for S&P Capital IQ. On 29 June 2012, S&P Capital IQ acquired Credit Market Analysis Limited (CMA) from the CME group. CMA provides independent data concerning the over-the- counter markets. CMA’s data and technology will enhance S&P Capital IQ's capability to provide pricing and related over-the-counter information.  S&P Global listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the ticker is SPGI
  • 47. Page 34  Supported by more than 10,000 employees  Douglas L. Peterson is the CEO of S&P capital IQ.  Operating in 20 countries worldwide.  Harnessing 135 billion data points a year. 10.3 OPERATIONS S&P Capital IQ provides web-based information services that combine information on companies worldwide along with a variety of software applications that allow financial professionals to analyze company fundamentals, build financial models, screen for investment ideas, and execute other financial research tasks. Capital IQ serves more than 4,200 clients, including investment banks, investment management firms, private equity firms, universities, consultants, and corporations. Components of Capital IQ’s offering include data on public companies, private companies, auditable company Financials, M&A/financial transactions, public offerings, corporate executives and board directors, compensation, news, filings, screening tools, chart builder, Excel Plug-In modeling tool, real-time market data and news, relationship tree, macroeconomic data, industry analysts and investment research. 10.4 S&P GLOBAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE S&P Global Market Intelligence was born from the integration of S&P Capital IQ and SNL Financial. S&P Global Market Intelligence is a provider of multi-asset class and real-time data, research, and analytics to institutional investors, investment and commercial banks, investment advisors and wealth managers, corporations, and universities. S&P Global Market Intelligence provides financial and industry data, research, news, and analytics to investment professionals, government agencies, corporations, and universities worldwide. It collects, interprets, analyzes, and connects large amounts of financial and industry data and turns it into actionable intelligence to help clients make business and financial decisions. The company integrates news, market and sector-specific data, and analytics into various tools that
  • 48. Page 35 help its clients to track performance, generate alpha, identify investment ideas, understand competitive and industry dynamics, perform valuation, and assess credit risk. It delivers analytic measures, company data, pricing and market data, reference data and classifications, and ratings and research through various Web-based platforms, including desktop platforms, mobiles, data feeds, and on-demand solutions. Every day at S&P Global Market Intelligence collect, scrub, interpret, and analyze vast volumes of content, turning it into actionable intelligence on the global financial markets and the companies and industries that comprise those markets. S&P Global Market Intelligence delivers the data and insight you need to make informed smarter The company was formerly known as S&P Capital IQ, Inc. And changed its name to S&P Global Market Intelligence in February 2016. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in New York, New York with regional headquarters in London, United Kingdom; and Kowloon, Hong Kong. It also has locations in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Malaysia, Mexico, Pakistan, the Philippines, the Russian Federation, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States. S&P Global Market Intelligence operates as a subsidiary of S&P Global, Inc. S&P Global Market Intelligence operates as a subsidiary of S&P Global, Inc. The company integrates news, market and sector-specific data, and analytics into various tools that help its clients to track performance, generate alpha, identify investment ideas, understand competitive and industry dynamics, perform valuation, and assess credit risk. VISION “To be the leading provider of transparent and independent benchmarks & ratings, analytics data and research in the global capital, commodity and corporate markets” MISSION “Promote sustainable growth in the global capital, commodity and corporate markets by providing customers with essential intelligence and superior services.
  • 49. Page 36 8.5 EMERGENCE OF S&P GLOBAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE  1999: Capital IQ formed  2004: Capital IQ sold to McGraw Hill Financial  2010: S&P capital IQ formed  2011: S&P capital IQ merged with McGraw Hill Financial  2015: McGraw Hill Financial acquires SNL Financial  2016: S&P Global Market Intelligence formed 8.6 COMPETITORS 8.7 SERVICES & CLIENT SOLUTIONS DATA S&P Global Market Intelligence is provides well of high-quality data. Access extensive market and financial data, proprietary research, powerful analytics, and more —all compiled from millions of sources and delivered in milliseconds. What data matters most? 1) Analytic Measures 2) Company Data
  • 50. Page 37 3) Pricing & Market Data 4) Ratings & Research 5) Reference Data & Classifications SECTOR INTELLIGENCE S&P Global Market Intelligence provides unmatched in our global reach across a broad range of sectors, including breaking news, financial data, and expert analysis, updated continuously to give clients the most current and cutting-edge insights What sectors matter most? 1) Banking & Financial Services 2) Energy 3) Insurance 4) Media & Communications 5) Metals & Mining 6) Real Estate DELIVERY S&P Global Market Intelligence web-based platforms are easy to use and cater to the specific needs of different market segments. With robust tools for analysis, idea generation, and workflow management, and help you turn extensive information into action-ready insights. 8.8 CLIENT SOLUTIONS 1. CREDIT ANALYSIS: Measure, Mitigate and Manage credit risk for public and private companies, and make informed decisions that can potentially improve risk adjusted return to gain a competitive advantage through the use of fundamental and risk data, ratings and research, profitability of default and loss given default models, and analytical services including validation and stress testing capabilities. 2. QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS: Based on Vast high-quality data, tools and analytics available at S&P capital IQ support even the robust data and complex qualitative analysis
  • 51. Page 38 3. FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS: Provides information on almost every aspect of a company, it also provides detailed insights into related companies , takes a look up the supply chain to uncover any potential problems and takes a detailed look at its equity and debt profile. 4. PORTFOLIO AND RISK ANALYSIS: S&P capital IQ clients can build, monitor and restructure portfolios with confidence. 5. IDEA CREATION Company provides inspiration and insight to help turn client’s great ideas into breakthrough ideas. Extensive datasets , up-to-the-minute news feed and exhaustive fundamental data on companies help lay the foundation of thinking outside the box, and company’s analytics, workflow and modeling tools help test and refine ideas to help thinking shine. 6. RESEARCH: S&P capital IQ provides a full spectrum of proprietary and aggregated sell-side research on a broad range of companies, sectors, markets and economies. 7. INVESTMENT STRATEGY: S&P capital IQ investment strategies are built on proprietary fundamental and quantitative disciplines by leveraging proprietary assets of the S&P capital IQ, S&P Dow Jones Indices, and Standard and Poor’s Ratings Services Franchises. 8. REAL TIME SOLUTIONS: The landscape of the real time market data space is changing rapidly. S&P capital IQ’s proprietary global network and multi-asset class market data and content 10.9 AWARDS AND RECOGNITIONS 1) Best Counterparty Data Provider 2016 S&P Global Market intelligence won the “Best Counterparty Data Provider” category at the 2016 Inside Market Data and Inside Reference Data Awards. 2) Best Analytics Provider for 2015: S&P Capital IQ was honoured at Inside Market Data (IMD) Awards program by “Best Analytics Provider” for 2015. This marks the sixth year in a row that they have won the best Analytics Provider Award.
  • 52. Page 39 Table 5: KEY PERSONNEL AT S&P GLOBAL Name Title Image Peterson, Douglas L CEO, President, Executive Director- S&P Global Mike Chinn President Nick Cafferillo Chief Operating Officer David Pearce Chief Financial Officer Nancy Gardner Chief Legal Officer Anna Sharkey Head of Human Resources
  • 53. Page 40 Table 6: STOCK QUOTE ON JUNE-16-2016 OF S&P GLOBAL (Currency: INR) Last 7,230.85 Market Cap (mm) 1,913,283.5 Open 7,151.47 Shares Out. (mm) 264.6 Previous Close 7,230.85 Float % 99.5% Change on Day 27.58 Shares Sold Short (mm 3.5 Change % on Day 0.4% Dividend Yield % 1.3% Day High/low 7,243.65/7,093.29 Diluted EPS Excl. Extra Items 283.10 52 week High/ Low 7,584.69/5,284.06 P/Diluted EPS Before Extra 25.54x Volume (mm) 0.66 Avg 3M Dly Vlm (mm ) 1.11 Beta 5Y 1.11 Last Updated on Jun-16-2016 12:00 AM (GMT-5) Figure 2: STOCK PERFORMANCE OF S&P GLOBAL INC. OVER 10 YEARS 0.00 10.00mm 20.00mm 30.00mm 40.00mm 50.00mm 60.00mm 70.00mm 0.00 1,000.00 2,000.00 3,000.00 4,000.00 5,000.00 6,000.00 7,000.00 8,000.00 9,000.00 S&P Global, Inc. (NYSE:SPGI) - Volume
  • 54. Page 41 Table 7 : FINANCIAL INFORMATION OF S&P GLOBAL (Currency: INR, in mm) Total Revenue 361,979. Market Capitalization 1,913,283.5 EBITDA 151,223.0 Total Enterprise Value 2,135,879.9 EBIT 140,056.1 Cash & ST Invest. 107,632.0 Net Income 77,158.7 Total Debt 265,111.1 Capital Expenditure (9,350.5) Total Assets 555,717.5 Last Updated on Jun-16-2016 12:00 AM (GMT-5 Figure 2 : S&P GLOBAL OPERATING PERFORMANCE Dec-31- 2012A Dec-31- 2013A Dec-31- 2014A Dec-31- 2015A Mar-31- 2016A Total Revenue 287,242.90 316,303.50 339,780.80 357,405.50 361,979.90 Gross Profit 190,845.00 211,093.30 230,332.50 244,930.10 246,342.70 EBITDA 99,895.90 115,368.00 131,512.80 148,666.70 151,223.00 EBIT 90,410.90 106,152.10 122,498.70 138,105.30 140,056.10 0.00 50,000.00 100,000.00 150,000.00 200,000.00 250,000.00 300,000.00 350,000.00 400,000.00 Operating Performace Total Revenue Gross Profit EBITDA EBIT
  • 55. Page 42 Table 8 : PROFITABILITY&MARGIN ANALYSIS RATIOS OF S&P GLOBAL Profitability 31-Mar- 2016 Return on Assets 19.0% Return on Capital 33.9% Return on Equity 97.5% Margin Analysis 31-Mar- 2016 Gross Margin 68.1% Operating Margin 38.7% Net Income Margin 21.3% Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence Database, Company website
  • 57. Page 44 Through history a great number of studies have been devoted to the topic of insider transactions. These studies focus on the effects of insider trading for the outsiders. This study will mainly be focused on the effects of insider transactions on security returns, which in turn can be interesting for outsiders. Specifically, it will research if a possibility to earn abnormal returns on mimicking the actions of corporate insiders exists. Insiders possess valuable private information about their companies. If they trade, there can be made valid inferences regarding future movements in the prices of stocks Numerous studies, such as Lorie and Niederhoffer (1968) Pratt and DeVere (1970) Jaffe (1974), and Finnerty (1976) among others, conclude that insiders earn significant abnormal profits by trading the securities of their own firms.’ Estimates of insiders’ abnormal profits in these studies vary from 3% to 30% during holding periods of eight months to three years. Surprisingly, insider trading studies also report that even uninformed outsiders can earn significant abnormal profits by imitating insiders. Outsiders can purchase stock following insider stock purchases, sell stock following insider stock sales using publicly available insider trading information, and thereby also earn 3% to 30% abnormal profits. According to H. NEJAT SEYHUN (1984) shows that, during the 100 days following the insider trading day, stock prices rise abnormally by 3.0% for purchases and decline abnormally by 1.7% for sales. During the 100 days prior to the insider trading day, stock prices decline abnormally by 1.4% for purchases and rise abnormally by 2.5% for sales. And also indicates that most of the abnormal stock price adjustment occurs during the 100 days following the insider trading day. For the overall sample, the stock price adjustment between days 101 and 300 is 0.8% which is insignificantly different from zero. Above results suggest that insider do possess market timing ability in that they buy after a run down in prices and sell after a run up in prices with reversals immediately following the trades. The market views insiders’ purchases as a more credible signal about a firm’s future prospects than insiders’ sell trades. There is evidence that prices fall after an insider sell transaction, and rise after an insider buy transaction. A counter example is a recent study by Eckbo and Smith (1998) that finds that insiders of firms listed on Oslo Stock Exchange do not earn abnormal profits. The performance analysis rejects the hypothesis of positive abnormal performance by Insider trading.
  • 58. Page 45 Insider in a corporation includes Directors, Officers, as well as any person or entity that beneficially owns more than 10% of a company’s voting shares. The reason for all the attention that goes to insiders’ activities is Company executives and directors know their business more intimately than any other investors or analyst. They know when a new product is flying out the door, when inventories are piling up, whether profit margins are expanding or whether production costs are rising. There should be a way for investors to benefit from observing what insiders are doing. Further my objective of the research is to when Director (insider) sale of shares is really stock prices are going to decline according to the above mentioned scholars reports or not.
  • 59. Page 46 10. ANNEXURE-3 ANALYSIS AND FINDINGS DATA
  • 60. Page 47 Table 9 : Actual and Expected returns on the event day of USA market Insider Name Filing Date Company Name Actual Return Expected Return Zerkel James E II 6/27/2016 Shenandoah Telecommunication s Co 0.39% -1.45% Henry Robert H. 6/22/2016 Devon Energy Corp -0.65% 0.00% Levinson Marina 6/21/2016 Ellie Mae Inc 0.03% -0.07% Levin Robert J Dolan A Barr Blasing Karen Vautrinot Suzanne M 6/21/2016 Symantec Corp 2.20% 0.13% Baird Charles J 6/17/2016 Community Trust Bancorp Inc -1.55% -0.19% Brockman Henry W. Jr. 6/17/2016 Franklin Financial Network Inc -0.69% -0.13% Broady George K 6/21/2016 Natural Health Trends Corp -3.60% 0.64% Druten Robert J 6/10/2016 Alliance Holdings GP LP 0.55% -1.16% Zelnak Stephen P Jr 6/9/2016 Martin Marietta Materials Inc -0.30% -0.10% Joulwan George A 6/7/2016 Emergent BioSolutions Inc -0.84% 0.26% Huddleston William H IV 6/8/2016 Pinnacle Financial Partners Inc 0.87% 0.39% Dorman John C 5/17/2016 CoreLogic Inc 0.03% -0.30% DUB ANTHONY 6/23/2016 Range Resources Corp 2.70% 0.34%
  • 61. Page 48 VDirector Smith Richard D /co/ 6/23/2016 Allied Motion Technologies Inc -1.85% 0.37% Salerno Frederic V 4/12/2016 Intercontinental Exchange Inc 0.22% 0.87% Forneri Jean Marc 12/29/2015 Intercontinental Exchange Inc 1.31% 1.07% Nanninga Cherrie 6/17/2016 Lifetime Brands Inc 0.92% -0.16% Hoster David H II 6/23/2016 EastGroup Properties Inc 0.90% 1.16% Hickey Kevin F 6/16/2016 WellCare Health Plans Inc -2.57% 0.24% Bastiani Richard 6/10/2016 Abaxis Inc -2.90% -0.74% Ax Peter L 6/15/2016 Meritage Homes Corp 1.12% -0.28% Jackson Alan G. 6/6/2016 Sanchez Energy Corp 3.42% 1.14% Carney Thomas Brian Maher Sean M Garcia Gilbert A Musk Kimbal 6/15/2016 Tesla Motors Inc 1.27% -0.25% Stonesifer Patricia Q 6/8/2016 Amazon.com Inc 0.40% 0.61% Diromualdo Robert F 6/7/2016 Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc 1.03% 0.33%
  • 62. Page 49 Table 10: Abnormal Returns on Event day and Abnormal retuns on Non-Event day Company Name Event day(AR) Non-Event day(AR) Shenandoah Telecommunications Co 1.843% -0.519% 1.708% 1.416% -0.586% 2.014% 1.900% Devon Energy Corp -0.655% 3.390% 3.725% 2.332% 2.269% -7.609% -5.861% Ellie Mae Inc 0.106% -0.556% 0.777% 0.215% -1.002% 0.548% 0.533% Symantec Corp 2.066% 3.994% 1.302% 2.126% -0.455% 1.236% -0.876% Community Trust Bancorp Inc -1.362% -0.721% -0.358% -1.223% 1.371% 0.941% -0.512% Franklin Financial Network Inc -0.562% 0.482% 0.642% 0.076% 0.254% 2.243% -1.264% Natural Health Trends Corp -4.240% -7.787% 4.223% -4.399% 2.646% -2.241%
  • 63. Page 50 7.316% Alliance Holdings GP LP 1.717% 0.210% 1.770% -1.618% -0.537% -0.204% 4.039% Martin Marietta Materials Inc -0.202% -0.477% -0.298% 0.963% -0.963% -0.567% -0.559% Emergent BioSolutions Inc -1.101% -0.054% 0.267% 0.584% -0.214% -1.045% -2.077% Pinnacle Financial Partners Inc 0.478% -0.429% 1.534% -1.682% -0.483% 0.883% 0.175% CoreLogic Inc 0.322% 0.401% 0.431% 0.051% -0.329% -0.044% -0.564% Range Resources Corp 2.353% -0.905% 3.773% 1.387% -1.979% -1.631% -0.416% Allied Motion Technologies Inc -2.221% -1.388% -1.848% 4.182% -1.369% -0.531% 0.601% Intercontinental Exchange Inc -0.642% -0.397% -0.690%
  • 64. Page 51 -0.233% 1.037% -0.348% 0.786% Intercontinental Exchange Inc 0.237% -0.878% 0.460% 1.138% 0.315% 0.578% -0.500% Lifetime Brands Inc 1.086% 3.232% -0.051% -0.671% 0.018% 0.576% -2.414% EastGroup Properties Inc -0.260% -0.143% -0.467% 0.477% 1.108% 0.627% -0.081% WellCare Health Plans Inc -2.811% 0.249% -3.109% -0.889% 2.013% 7.039% -1.582% Abaxis Inc -2.159% -1.086% 1.248% 0.675% 0.680% 0.122% 0.060% Meritage Homes Corp 1.393% -1.692% -1.924% -0.312% -0.363% 2.481% 0.388% Sanchez Energy Corp 2.278% 1.715% -0.691% -0.699% 6.373% 4.250%
  • 65. Page 52 -1.236% Tesla Motors Inc 1.522% -3.422% 0.630% -1.094% -0.285% -0.700% 1.230% Amazon.com Inc -0.210% -0.252% -0.632% -0.785% 0.118% -0.486% 0.356% Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc 0.700% -0.340% -0.073% -0.658% -0.479% 0.273% 0.814%