1. GEOGRAPHICAL
PROFILING OF VOLUME
CRIME
TESTING THE ASSUMPTIONS AND THE HEURISTIC
POTENTIAL
ERIC HALFORD MSC

2. Origin of Thesis
Austerity Measures
Need for value for money
A necessity to embrace the three E's, Efficiency,
Economy, Effectiveness
How do you apply science to policing?

3. The Literature
o Criminology, Psychology, Policing
o Problem Orientated Policing
o Intelligence Led Policing
o Absence of literature on methods to predict crime
o Crime Linkage – How do we predict two or more crimes are linked?
o Geographical Profiling – How do we profile these crimes to predict the
offender?
o Heuristics – Greatest value for money if accuracy is comparable
o A lack of operational empirical literature across Policing academia

4. The Crime Linkage Thesis
Can crime be reliably linked using behavioural and
physical characteristics?
Can regression and ROC analysis provide decision
making thresholds?
Can it be done heuristically?
Is heuristic accuracy comparable?

5. The Geo Profiling Thesis
Can 'volume' crime be profiled?
Do the commonly held assumptions hold true?
Can it be done heuristically?
Is predictive accuracy comparable?

6. Combined Thesis
Can the two theories be drawn together?
Will they continue to be accurate?
Can they be combined heuristically?
Can the heuristic approach remain competitive?

7. Geographical Profiling
Identified as the area with least academic research
No practical studies
Majority of research on major crime i.e. Murder
All research was historic i.e. post conviction

8. DEFINITION
“An investigative technique used to
determine the most likely location of a
criminal’s residence based upon the
geographic location of crime sites”
(Prof. David L. Wiesenthal, 2012)

9. The History
Dr Kim Rossmo - Father of geo profiling
Dr Brent Snook - First to test heuristically
'All' research retrospective
Very little regarding volume crime

10. The Assumptions
Serious crime only
5 or more crimes
Complexity equates to accuracy i.e. more crimes
and GIS
Marauders not commuters

11. The Steps
Offences
Crime linkage – currently reliant on tangible linkage
i.e. forensics
Geographical profiling
Traditional policing techniques – subsequent use of
resources to target the profiled area and suspects.

12. The Ultimate Goal
Volume crime - cradle to grave – crime linkage to
geographic profile
Heuristic vs complexity - accuracy
Theory into practicality - operational effectiveness
Increase in the three Es and a reduction in crime

13. How Will it be Tested?
Crime Linkage - Regression and ROC analysis
Case study heuristic testing
Linkage – Profiling –Training – Repeat - Combined
Comparison
Training
Action research

14. Literature Contribution
Re-contextualisation of existing theories within a new
context.
Corroboration and elaboration on existing theoretical
models.
Collaboration of multiple existing theories to produce
new insights.
Conclusion of the theories feasibility and utility
Implementation of a theoretical framework

15. The End Product
Best practice framework
Empirically tested
Rejuvenate two fields - GP and Policing Academia
Increase detections and convictions
Decrease crime

16. The Future
Can further predictive theories be incorporated?
Optimal Forager theory
Could this produce a completely scientific
framework to predicting crime?
Optimal Forager + Crime Linkage + Geographical Profiling

17. SIMPLE'S!
ANY QUESTIONS?