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LIFE AFTER BREXIT:
After months of fierce debate and a policymaking hiatus, the
UK electorate has voted to leave the European Union (EU).
Companies will face considerable uncertainty until the UK’s exit
strategy from the EU is fully defined and trade negotiations with
other countries are completed.
MANAGING THE NEW RISK ENVIRONMENT
If “passporting” rights –
the ability of financial
services firms based in
one EU country to operate
in another without setting
up a new legal entity—are
not resolved, banks (both
UK- and EU-domiciled)
may be required to set up
additional operations or
headquarters elsewhere,
with revenues travelling
accordingly.
43%* of total EMEA (Europe,
Middle East and Africa)
revenues for capital markets
and investment banking is at
significant risk of migrating if
“passporting” is not resolved.
*Based on 2013-14 figures
POTENTIAL RISK
GDP growth and
regulatory uncertainties
may deter foreign direct
investment to the UK in
the short-term.
In the months running up to
the “Brexit” vote, IPOs and
private equity deals and
corporate credit demand
softened—how long this might
last is a critical factor.
* As of June 19, 2016
POTENTIAL RISK
Based on negotiations
that will determine the
circumstances of EU
citizens currently working
in the UK labor market,
employment mobility
constraints may influence
how multinational
companies operate.
Two million employees who
are EU citizens currently
working in the UK may be
affected by labor market
complexity.
POTENTIAL RISK
3 AREAS OF FOCUS
FOR RISK MANAGERS
Protect against stress on
capital and credit
positions resulting from
market volatility and
possible negative GDP
impacts.
Monitor economic and
political contagion in
other markets, and the
associated business
consequences.
Track negotiations on
passporting arrangements
and tariffs to inform
restructuring plans for UK
operations.
Analyze likely changes in
regulatory regimes on
capital requirements and
operational constraints to
inform industry
consultations.
Anticipate UK labor
market constraints
(faster than regulatory
change and trade deals)
and impacts on
competitive pay levels.
Assess cross-border
implications for
employee healthcare,
and also pension
scheme performance
and risk management.
SO, WHAT NOW?
51.9% 48.1%
Leave Remain
17,410,742 votes 16,141,241 votes
REFERENDUM RESULTS
Sources: http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887; OliverWyman proprietary data, research and analysis; BIS;World Federation of Exchanges;
http://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/february2016
A NEW RISK
ENVIRONMENT
CORPORATE
STRATEGY
IMPLICATIONS
WORKFORCE
DISLOCATION
1
THE VALUE OF UK
IPOs DECREASED
BY NEARLY HALF
THE VALUE OF GLOBAL
IPOs MORE THAN
DOUBLED
Q1 2016 Q2 2016*
Q1 2016 Q2 2016*
$2.15B
$1.14B
$8.9B
$22.7B
RECOMMENDATIONSRECOMMENDATIONS RECOMMENDATIONS
32
E
M
EAREVENUE
43%
A
T RISK OF MIGRA
TION
... ...
MEANWHILE...
THERE ARE CURRENTLY
FULL TIME EMPLOYEES IN
THE UK.
ARE EU CITIZENS.
OF THESE,
23 MILLION
marsh.com
Marsh is one of the Marsh & McLennan Companies, together with Guy Carpenter, Mercer, and Oliver Wyman.
This document and any recommendations, analysis, or advice provided by Marsh (collectively, the “Marsh Analysis”) are not intended to be taken as advice regarding any individual
situation and should not be relied upon as such. The information contained herein is based on sources we believe reliable, but we make no representation or warranty as to its
accuracy. Marsh shall have no obligation to update the Marsh Analysis and shall have no liability to you or any other party arising out of this publication or any matter contained herein.
Any statements concerning actuarial, tax, accounting, or legal matters are based solely on our experience as insurance brokers and risk consultants and are not to be relied upon as
actuarial, tax, accounting, or legal advice, for which you should consult your own professional advisors. Any modeling, analytics, or projections are subject to inherent uncertainty, and
the Marsh Analysis could be materially affected if any underlying assumptions, conditions, information, or factors are inaccurate or incomplete or should change. Marsh makes no
representation or warranty concerning the application of policy wording or the financial condition or solvency of insurers or reinsurers. Marsh makes no assurances regarding the
availability, cost, or terms of insurance coverage. Although Marsh may provide advice and recommendations, all decisions regarding the amount, type or terms of coverage are the
ultimate responsibility of the insurance purchaser, who must decide on the specific coverage that is appropriate to its particular circumstances and financial position.
Copyright © 2016 Marsh LLC. All rights reserved.

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Marsh: life after brexit infographic 25 june 2016

  • 1. LIFE AFTER BREXIT: After months of fierce debate and a policymaking hiatus, the UK electorate has voted to leave the European Union (EU). Companies will face considerable uncertainty until the UK’s exit strategy from the EU is fully defined and trade negotiations with other countries are completed. MANAGING THE NEW RISK ENVIRONMENT If “passporting” rights – the ability of financial services firms based in one EU country to operate in another without setting up a new legal entity—are not resolved, banks (both UK- and EU-domiciled) may be required to set up additional operations or headquarters elsewhere, with revenues travelling accordingly. 43%* of total EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa) revenues for capital markets and investment banking is at significant risk of migrating if “passporting” is not resolved. *Based on 2013-14 figures POTENTIAL RISK GDP growth and regulatory uncertainties may deter foreign direct investment to the UK in the short-term. In the months running up to the “Brexit” vote, IPOs and private equity deals and corporate credit demand softened—how long this might last is a critical factor. * As of June 19, 2016 POTENTIAL RISK Based on negotiations that will determine the circumstances of EU citizens currently working in the UK labor market, employment mobility constraints may influence how multinational companies operate. Two million employees who are EU citizens currently working in the UK may be affected by labor market complexity. POTENTIAL RISK 3 AREAS OF FOCUS FOR RISK MANAGERS Protect against stress on capital and credit positions resulting from market volatility and possible negative GDP impacts. Monitor economic and political contagion in other markets, and the associated business consequences. Track negotiations on passporting arrangements and tariffs to inform restructuring plans for UK operations. Analyze likely changes in regulatory regimes on capital requirements and operational constraints to inform industry consultations. Anticipate UK labor market constraints (faster than regulatory change and trade deals) and impacts on competitive pay levels. Assess cross-border implications for employee healthcare, and also pension scheme performance and risk management. SO, WHAT NOW? 51.9% 48.1% Leave Remain 17,410,742 votes 16,141,241 votes REFERENDUM RESULTS Sources: http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887; OliverWyman proprietary data, research and analysis; BIS;World Federation of Exchanges; http://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/february2016 A NEW RISK ENVIRONMENT CORPORATE STRATEGY IMPLICATIONS WORKFORCE DISLOCATION 1 THE VALUE OF UK IPOs DECREASED BY NEARLY HALF THE VALUE OF GLOBAL IPOs MORE THAN DOUBLED Q1 2016 Q2 2016* Q1 2016 Q2 2016* $2.15B $1.14B $8.9B $22.7B RECOMMENDATIONSRECOMMENDATIONS RECOMMENDATIONS 32 E M EAREVENUE 43% A T RISK OF MIGRA TION ... ... MEANWHILE... THERE ARE CURRENTLY FULL TIME EMPLOYEES IN THE UK. ARE EU CITIZENS. OF THESE, 23 MILLION marsh.com
  • 2. Marsh is one of the Marsh & McLennan Companies, together with Guy Carpenter, Mercer, and Oliver Wyman. This document and any recommendations, analysis, or advice provided by Marsh (collectively, the “Marsh Analysis”) are not intended to be taken as advice regarding any individual situation and should not be relied upon as such. The information contained herein is based on sources we believe reliable, but we make no representation or warranty as to its accuracy. Marsh shall have no obligation to update the Marsh Analysis and shall have no liability to you or any other party arising out of this publication or any matter contained herein. Any statements concerning actuarial, tax, accounting, or legal matters are based solely on our experience as insurance brokers and risk consultants and are not to be relied upon as actuarial, tax, accounting, or legal advice, for which you should consult your own professional advisors. Any modeling, analytics, or projections are subject to inherent uncertainty, and the Marsh Analysis could be materially affected if any underlying assumptions, conditions, information, or factors are inaccurate or incomplete or should change. Marsh makes no representation or warranty concerning the application of policy wording or the financial condition or solvency of insurers or reinsurers. Marsh makes no assurances regarding the availability, cost, or terms of insurance coverage. Although Marsh may provide advice and recommendations, all decisions regarding the amount, type or terms of coverage are the ultimate responsibility of the insurance purchaser, who must decide on the specific coverage that is appropriate to its particular circumstances and financial position. Copyright © 2016 Marsh LLC. All rights reserved.