Our clients will be turning to us to assist them assess the potential impacts of this decision and develop risk and insurance strategies to help them respond to the recent Brexit vote. This new risk landscape means we need to be innovative in our approach, collaborating across our vast areas of expertise and bringing the best of what Marsh has to offer to our clients.
This infographic helps outline some of the immediate critical risks our clients are facing.
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Marsh: life after brexit infographic 25 june 2016
1. LIFE AFTER BREXIT:
After months of fierce debate and a policymaking hiatus, the
UK electorate has voted to leave the European Union (EU).
Companies will face considerable uncertainty until the UK’s exit
strategy from the EU is fully defined and trade negotiations with
other countries are completed.
MANAGING THE NEW RISK ENVIRONMENT
If “passporting” rights –
the ability of financial
services firms based in
one EU country to operate
in another without setting
up a new legal entity—are
not resolved, banks (both
UK- and EU-domiciled)
may be required to set up
additional operations or
headquarters elsewhere,
with revenues travelling
accordingly.
43%* of total EMEA (Europe,
Middle East and Africa)
revenues for capital markets
and investment banking is at
significant risk of migrating if
“passporting” is not resolved.
*Based on 2013-14 figures
POTENTIAL RISK
GDP growth and
regulatory uncertainties
may deter foreign direct
investment to the UK in
the short-term.
In the months running up to
the “Brexit” vote, IPOs and
private equity deals and
corporate credit demand
softened—how long this might
last is a critical factor.
* As of June 19, 2016
POTENTIAL RISK
Based on negotiations
that will determine the
circumstances of EU
citizens currently working
in the UK labor market,
employment mobility
constraints may influence
how multinational
companies operate.
Two million employees who
are EU citizens currently
working in the UK may be
affected by labor market
complexity.
POTENTIAL RISK
3 AREAS OF FOCUS
FOR RISK MANAGERS
Protect against stress on
capital and credit
positions resulting from
market volatility and
possible negative GDP
impacts.
Monitor economic and
political contagion in
other markets, and the
associated business
consequences.
Track negotiations on
passporting arrangements
and tariffs to inform
restructuring plans for UK
operations.
Analyze likely changes in
regulatory regimes on
capital requirements and
operational constraints to
inform industry
consultations.
Anticipate UK labor
market constraints
(faster than regulatory
change and trade deals)
and impacts on
competitive pay levels.
Assess cross-border
implications for
employee healthcare,
and also pension
scheme performance
and risk management.
SO, WHAT NOW?
51.9% 48.1%
Leave Remain
17,410,742 votes 16,141,241 votes
REFERENDUM RESULTS
Sources: http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887; OliverWyman proprietary data, research and analysis; BIS;World Federation of Exchanges;
http://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/february2016
A NEW RISK
ENVIRONMENT
CORPORATE
STRATEGY
IMPLICATIONS
WORKFORCE
DISLOCATION
1
THE VALUE OF UK
IPOs DECREASED
BY NEARLY HALF
THE VALUE OF GLOBAL
IPOs MORE THAN
DOUBLED
Q1 2016 Q2 2016*
Q1 2016 Q2 2016*
$2.15B
$1.14B
$8.9B
$22.7B
RECOMMENDATIONSRECOMMENDATIONS RECOMMENDATIONS
32
E
M
EAREVENUE
43%
A
T RISK OF MIGRA
TION
... ...
MEANWHILE...
THERE ARE CURRENTLY
FULL TIME EMPLOYEES IN
THE UK.
ARE EU CITIZENS.
OF THESE,
23 MILLION
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