The Gambler’s Fallacy is fairly common amongst the casino community. Being aware of what it involves can save you from false hope.

1. © Maple Casino 2011

2. Intuition versus science
Back in the summer of 1913, just a year before
the beginning of the First World War, and in a
time of growing international tension, an
extraordinary event occurred in a Monte Carlo
Casino on a scale not yet witnessed before. It
seemed a normal day for the casino personnel
and their patrons until an unusual sequence of
identical colors on the roulette table began to
change everything.

3. Intuition versus science
The color black kept cropping up, over and
over again. After some time, the patrons,
erroneously assuming that with each black
result the chances of a subsequent red
would increase, began to wager all their
chips on red numbers. It was an ill-reasoned
move, because on this particular summery
day the roulette ball landed on black 26
times in a row.

4. Intuition versus science
It’s tempting to forgive the patrons for their
intuitive sense that a past random event
influences the outcome of a future random
event. To use another example: would a run
of even numbers at the roulette table mean
a greater chance of odd numbers the next
time? The answer is no.
This is the gambler’s fallacy.

5. The Gambler’s Fallacy
Its basis in human psychology has been
documented by Amos Tversky and Daniel
Kahneman in a kind of thinking called the
representative heuristic, where people
tend to believe that short sequences of
random events should be representative
of larger ones.

6. Russian Roulette
Let’s take the example of a game of Russian
roulette as an analogy of the gambler’s fallacy as
it applies to the slot machines. In Russian
roulette, a revolver with a chamber capacity of
six bullets has a single piece of ammunition
loaded. After each pull of the trigger, whether or
not a bullet is actually caught, the gunner spins
the chamber before shooting another round.
What’s just happened?

7. Time To pay Up
In each fire of the gun, the chances of firing the actual
bullet remains constant every time. Of course, if the
chamber were not spun then the odds would change, but
that’s not how Russian roulette works. It’s the same with
the slot machines. Many people erroneously assume that
a machine that hasn’t paid out big winnings for a long
time is primed for a jackpot, whereas the machine that
has paid out will now just swallow your money. It’s
anecdotal and perhaps even intuitive, but completely
incorrect, and a perfect instance of the gambler’s fallacy.

8. Pay Day
The simple fact is that in any casino establishment, the
player’s chances are always eclipsed by the house. How do
you think casinos have managed to stay in business for so
many years? The few that win should never be taken as
indicative of the enormous percentage that don’t. Therein,
of course, lies rub: when you do win you can change your
life. And even if your winnings are too humble to a buy new
house in Vermont, the sheer thrill of victory, the experience
of making money without many months of labor, is often
enough to keep you hooked forever.