1. European
Demographic Trends
With a focus on the second
demographic transition and policy
implications of population ageing.
Bradley Tombleson
19 July 2016

2. 2
Southampton

3. 3
Role:
Me: From:
International
AmbassadorStudying:
About me
BSc Population
& Geography

4. City of Southampton

5. Outline
• Fertility
– Trends; Explanations; Future prospects
• Mortality
– Trends; Inequalities (focus on UK)
• Population Ageing
– Trends; Policy implications
– Active Ageing Index (AAI)
5

6. Fertility

7. Period fertility trends
7
Source: Frejka and Sobotka (2008)

8. 8
Fertility Decline: Explanation
• Second Demographic Transition (Van de Kaa and Lesthaeghe, 1986).
Low fertility due to:
– Female education
– Ideational changes (individualism, autonomy)
– Career aspirations
• ‘The family’ is now less important
• New behaviours:
– Divorce & (non-marital) cohabitation
– Delay of marriage/childbearing; childlessness
– Childbearing outside of marriage
Source: Lesthaeghe (2010); Vitali and Mendola (2014)

9. Mean age at childbearing
9
Source: Rindfuss and Brauner-Otto (2008)

10. Issues with current (period) data
• TFR – Vulnerable to distortions /
‘tempo shocks’
• Lack of cohort data (such as CFR)
10

11. Postponement and fecundity
• Infertility: a consequence of postponement
• Later childbearing may cause lower TFR
11
49 years DEATH
15 years
Decision
Reproductive Lifespan

12. Childlessness
12

13. Voluntary or Involuntary?
• ‘Voluntary’ childlessness:
– Cost of living
– Career Aspirations
– Time in education
– Shortage of partners
• Involuntary childlessness:
– Infertility
– But: Assisted Reproductive
Technology (ART)
13
Source: Berrington (2015)

14. The Forerunners?
14
Eastern Europe;
‘Turkey’
Southern Europe;
Germany
Northern Europe;
Sweden
Source: Esping-Andersen and Billari (2015)

15. Refugee Crises and Fertility
15

16. “Brexit” and Fertility
Current affairs and fertility expectations...
16

17. Fertility: Summary
• Decreasing
• “Diverse, delayed & below-replacement”
(Frejka & Sobotka, 2005)
• New behaviours & childlessness
• Heterogeneity across Europe
• Uncertain future
– ‘Low Fertility Trap’?
17

18. Mortality

19. 19
Life expectancy
• Universal decreases in mortality
• LE has subsequently increased

20. Source: Bongaarts (2014)

21. Inequalities: UK

22. Inequality at Younger Ages
• Infant Mortality Rate (IMR):
– Deaths < first birthday
– 4 per 1,000 live births (ONS, 2013)
• Risk factors:
– Age of mother at birth
– Mother’s smoking status
– Low birth weight
22
Source: ONS (2015); World Bank (2016)

23. Inequality at Younger Ages
23
Source: Viner et al. (2014)

24. Gender differential
24

25. Gender differential: Cause
Source: ONS (2015b)

26. Inequalities:
Europe

27. 27

28. 28

29. 29

30. Mortality: Summary
• Universal decline in mortality
• Universal increase in LE
• Inequality
– By gender (biological & behavioural)
– By region
• Different causes of death
– Cancer & age-related diseases
30

31. A “Grey” Europe

32. 32
Global Ageing
Source: ONS (2013) [Statistical bulletin: Estimates of the Very Old (including Centenarians), 2002-2012]

33. Global Ageing
33

34. Rise of the Centenarian
34
Source: OECD (2016] [“Territorial Reviews: Japan 2016”]

35. Negative Perspective
• Burden of pensions (and age-related services)
• Labour force shrinkage
• Healthy life expectancy dilemma
– Measured through: the need for assistance with ADLs:
• Compression/expansion of morbidity
• Living alone (& care provision issues)
35

36. Policy Implications: Theory
• Pensions Policy
– Preventing poverty in old age
– Income to match living standards of working life
• Fiscal Policy
– Economic expansion; structural adjustment; welfare state
• Labour market Policy
– Economically Active : Economically Inactive
(Employed : Unemployed/retired)
36

37. Policy Implications: Reality
• Pensions Policy
– Retirement Age: UK; Germany; Denmark
– Malus / Bonus: ~All
– Personal contributions: Poland; Slovakia
– Privatisation: Italy; Poland
• Fiscal Policy
– Deficit: All (Ireland; Greece)
• Labour market Policy
– Imminent challenges: All (Poland; Slovakia; Greece;
Bulgaria)
37

38. Positive Perspective
• It’s not all bad, if:
– Individuals are able to remain ‘active’ in old age
(economically and/or socially)
• Active Ageing Index (AAI) [Asghar Zaidi, UoS]
38

39. 39Source: http://www1.unece.org/stat/platform/display/AAI/Active+Ageing+Index+Home

40. 40Source: http://www1.unece.org/stat/platform/display/AAI/Active+Ageing+Index+Home
‘Northern’ Europe
‘Central’/’Western’
Europe
‘Eastern’ Europe

41. Summary

42. Summary
• Fertility holds a less certain future, compared to mortality.
• Demographic trends are heterogeneous across Europe –
particularly given recent regional events.
• Ageing has the capacity to bring great challenges, but its
impact may be lessened… Providing policy adapts soon!
42