1. Forecasting Tysabri® Market Share &
Resulting Effects on the Competitive
Landscape of Multiple Sclerosis
Ahmad Saadat
December 2004

2. What is Multiple Sclerosis?
• Autoimmune Disease affecting over
400,000 people in the US
• Causes irreparable nerve damage
over time

3. Current MS Market
Landscape
• Four drugs currently on market to treat MS
– Avonex®
• 41% Market Share
• Launched 1996
• Weekly IM injection
– Rebif ®
• 13% Market Share
• Launched 2002
• Every other day SC injection (under skin)
– Betaseron ®
• 19% Market Share
• Launched 1993
• Every other day SC injection (under skin)
– Copaxone®
• 27% Market Share
• Launched 1996
• Every day SC injection (under skin)
Interferons – Recombinant
human proteins - “biologics”
Synthetic formulation of
four amino acids – “drug”

4. Regulatory Approval of
Tysabri®
• November 23, 2004 FDA Approval
• Novel drug
– Monthly IV drip
– Monoclonal Antibody
– Clinical Trials showed superior efficacy
than current drugs on market
• Blockbuster status within next 3-5
years
– Over $1 billion in sales

5. Objective
• Using Advanced Data Modeling
Techniques and Monte Carlo
Simulation, we will forecast:
1. Percent market share Antegren will
capture through 2010
2. Percent market share other four
therapies will capture through 2010
3. Percent growth in total market
penetration through 2010
4. Actual number of users for Antegren and
other therapies through 2010

6. Best Practices
• Elise Wang – Citigroup/Smith Barney
• Looked at three factors to determine
total market
1. Patients that have discontinued current
therapies and are not on drug
2. Newly diagnosed patients
3. Patients who are on therapy right now but
will switch
• Assigned a penetration rate for each
variable to come up with total users

7. Elise Wang – Citigroup/Smith
Barney Model

8. Elise Wang – Citigroup/Smith
Barney Model
• Criticisms:
– Does not look at historical data
– Penetration rates are too conservative and arbitrary
• Claims that in 2005, newly diagnosed MS patients
penetration rate would be 5%
• Morgan Stanley Survey says otherwise

9. Current Market
MS market share data
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Year
Marketshare(%oftotalpatientsontherapy)
Avonex
Rebif
Copaxone
Betaserone

10. The Model
• Market share response to competition.
• Equation-1
S(t+1) = cS(t) + (1-c)(Long-run-Share at time t)
• Equation-2
Long-run-Share =
– a defines relative competetiveness
– c is a measure of market penetration
 a
a
)(
)(
companyofstrength
strengthour
companiesall

11. The Model
• Modeling Historical Data
– Calculate a and c for each drug
– Calculate error of the model for each drug
• Forecasting Future Market Share
– Forecast total patient market on medication
– Antegren market share is the total market
share gained from other drugs plus all new
patients
– Identify variables and simulate using @Risk

12. Input Variables
• Forecasted market shares
– From 2005-2010
• Avonex
• Rebif
• Copaxone
• Betaseron
– Competition’s Strength
– Market growth rate
– Penetration rate

13. Simulation Results
Forecasted Antegren market share
Antegren Market Share (G33 to G38)
MarketShare
Year
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Year:
=Mean,+1/-1SD =95%,5%
@RISK Student Version
For Academic Use Only
Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Minimum 9.7% 7.2% 5.0% 9.3% 10.1% 21.4%
Maximum 17.4% 41.3% 52.5% 57.5% 61.6% 65.5%
Mean 15% 26% 34% 40% 45% 49%
Std Deviation 1.5% 5.1% 6.2% 6.9% 7.4% 7.3%
Std_error 0.05% 0.16% 0.20% 0.22% 0.23% 0.23%
95% confidence interval of Mean 15.1% 26.2% 34.3% 40.6% 45.4% 49.2%
14.9% 25.5% 33.5% 39.7% 44.4% 48.3%
5% Perc 12% 17% 23% 28% 32% 36%
95% Perc 17% 34% 44% 51% 56% 59%

14. Forecasted Market Shares
for All Therapies
MS market share data and forecast
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Year
Marketshare(%oftotalpatientsontherapy)
Avonex
Rebif
Copaxone
Betaserone
Antegren

15. Forecasted MS Patient Population
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Year
NumberofPatients
Patients not on Therapy
Antegren(Biogen Idec/Elan)
Betaseron (Chiron/Schering)
Copaxone (Teva)
Rebif (Serono/Pfizer)
Avonex(Biogen Idec)

16. National Multiple Sclerosis
Society
• www.nmss.org
• 1-800-FIGHT-MS
• MS Walk
• MS Challenge Walk
• MS Bike Tour