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1. 27 MAY – 01 JUNE 2013
W E E K L Y
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P
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On
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2. MAJOR EVENTS
The hypersensitivity of gold to information inflows was seen on Wednesday when Ben
Bernanke testified before the US Congress on monetary policy. When he said that the
US Federal Reserve may continue with its bond buying programme, the futures
climbed above $1400 levels only to backtrack to former levels as he almost retreated
from what he said.
“Volatility may mark the futures in the days to come,”. “The futures may trade in the
range of $1360-$1410/oz in as we go forward. Chances cannot be ruled out that it
may touch levels close to $1330,”. “Chances are more that gold cannot go up in the
near future. Even if it goes up, it would be temporary and limited,”. Theoretically, it
would be a rare incident if gold could go below $1200/oz, its cost of production. But
even that cannot be ruled out given the current circumstances,”. But it is also difficult
to rule out the scope of surprises that the economies around the world may throw up.
“Europe may take at least three years to recover. US is a beacon of hope. China data is
not encouraging beyond a point,”.“When it comes to surprises, one should not forget
that Cyprus indeed was a big surprise”.
The trend in crude oil futures for June delivery on India's Multi Commodity Exchange
(MCX) looks sideways. Intra-day traders are advised to remain cautious till the release
of EIA weekly crude oil inventory data which is scheduled for 08.00 PM IST today.
US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly stock-
piles data later today and is expected to be negative for crude oil prices.
Crude oil futures fell on Wednesday as American Petroleum Institute (API) data
showed that the crude oil inventories rose 532,000 barrels last week. Also, US
gasoline inventories rose 3 million barrels last week.“The API numbers were bearish
across the board,” “Rising crude oil supplies, falling refinery utilization and rising
gasoline stocks: This is the main reason why the oil complex is lower today,” .WTI
crude oil futures for July delivery was also seen trading down by 0.06% at $96.14 per
barrel as of 05.37 PM IST on Wednesday. A Brent crude oil future for July delivery
was also down by 0.22% at $103.65 per barrel as of 05.38 PM IST on Wednesday.
MCX Crude Oil
sideways; EIA
data awaited.
Copper slips on
China mfg data;
await German
PMI, US job data.
Copper futures in the global market fell as Chinese manufacturing shrunk for the first
time in seven months. Copper futures on Globex division of Comex was seen trading
down by 1.23% at $3.326 per pound as of 10.27 AM IST on Thursday.
Copper futures on India's Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) for June delivery was seen
trading down by 1.24% at Rs.411.70 per kilogram as of 10.27 AM IST on Thursday. The
German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and US jobless claims data
are scheduled to be released later today and investors may get clues for their trading.
China Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for May has retreated into territory of
contraction with HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI providing a reading of 49.6
compared to 50.4 in April. The May readings are at a seven-month low. Flash China
Manufacturing Output Index meanwhile prevailed at 51.0 compared to 51.1 in April, a
three-month low. A PMI reading of below 50 is indicative of contraction in the
economy.“Copper is falling after the worse-than-expected index along with the
strengthening dollar,”. “Prices could fall further to $7,200 in the near term.”US Federal
Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke on Wednesday said that the Federal Reserve may cut
its pace of asset buying program if labour market continues to improve.
Volatility may
mark Gold
futures in the
days to come.

3. E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R
DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS
May 27, All Day Bank Holiday
May 28, 6:30pm S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 10.2% 9.3%
7:30pm FOMC Member Dudley Speaks 70.4 68.1
7:30pm Richmond Manufacturing Index 2 -6
May 29, 10:30pm FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks
May 30, 6:00pm Prelim GDP q/q 2.5% 2.5%
6:00pm Unemployment Claims 342K 340K
6:00pm Prelim GDP Price Index q/q 1.2% 1.2%
7:30pm Pending Home Sales m/m 1.8% 1.5%
8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 89B
8:30pm Crude Oil Inventories -0.3M
May 31, 6:00pm Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% 0.0%
6:00pm Personal Spending m/m 0.2% 0.2%
6:00pm Personal Income m/m 0.2% 0.2%
7:15pm Chicago PMI 50.3 49.0
7:25pm Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 84.1 83.7
7:25pm Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 3.1%

4. S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
25840 25250 24750 27100 27700 28260
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
42000 40500 39000 45000 46600 48600
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX GOLD last week showed sideways
to bullish movement on daily charts
and took support around 25370. It
moved around the 23.6% retracement
and now sideways movements are
expected in the range of 26800-25900
in the coming week. If it breaks the
resistance level of 27000 then only
bullish movement is expected. On
other hand bearishness is only
expected below 25250.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell
below 25800 for the targets of 25400-
25000 with stop loss of 26700.
PIVOT TABLE
G O L D
PIVOT TABLE
S I L V E R
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX SILVER last week broke its strong
support of 42200 but unable to sustain
below this and aggressive pull back was
seen. Now if it gave closing below
42200 then only bearish movement will
drag it to new lows. On other hand
45850 will act as strong resistance for it;
only above this strength can be seen.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to buy above 44600 for
target of 45800-47200, with stop loss of
42000.

5. C R U D E O I L
C O P P E R
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
5165 5060 4945 5310 5410 5520
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
400 392 379 417 427 438.10
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Copper last week broke its
resistance level of 412 found
resistance of 61.8% retracement and
closed below 50% retracement which
indicates some bearness in it. On
weekly charts it forms a reversal
pattern, now if it break psychological
level of 400 then it will be in weak
zone and may find next support near
392. On higher side 421 is act as
resistance for it.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to buy
on dips for the target of 5400-5500 with
stop loss of 5140.
PIVOT TABLE
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
Crude oil on daily charts took support
of lower band of upward channel
pattern. Now if it breaks support level
of 5160 then next support level seen
around 5000. If it takes some
correction from current levels then
5385 will act as strong resistance
above this it may test the level of 5500.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX COPPER will be sell
below 400, with stop loss of 412 for the
target of 392-387.
PIVOT TABLE

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