1. 15 JULY – 20 JULY 2013
W E E K L Y
R
E
P
O
R
T
Blow by Blow
On
Bullions,
Base metals,
Energy…
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2. MAJOR EVENTS
When gold prices crash, the first casuality may be the investors but gold miners can't
escape the brunt of falling prices. Sharp correction in prices has led to miners writing
down their asse values in accordance to current market prices.
Athough top gold miners will face the brunt of gold price correction, it is the smaller
and aging related activities that will face the majority of the crisis as production costs
per ounce is extremely high when compared with that. The exodus from gold
investments has spilled into gold stocks with leading producers Yamana Gold and
Barrick Gold, a causuality of the bear market. Yamana Gold shares are down close to
50% year-to-date. Its earnigns per share is likely to fall to $0.49. The weak trend in
earnings estimates bodes poorly for Yamana which has already missed profit estimate
four of the past five quarters.
For South African miners, a price level below $1400/oz is a negative indicator as
output costs of major gold miners like Sibanye Gold, Harmony Gold Mining and Gold
Fields spending expenditure and excessive levels of labour production is the highest at
Harmony Gold Mining producers.
Crude oil futures prices rose sharply by 1.14 per cent to Rs 6,280 per barrel today as
speculators created fresh positions, tracking a firming trend in Asia.
At the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude oil for delivery in July traded Rs 71 or 1.14
per cent, higher at Rs 6,280 per barrel with a business turnover of 11,657 lots.
The crude oil for August also moved up by Rs 50, or 0.8 per cent, to Rs 6,267 per
barrel, with a business volume of 2,987 lots.
Market analysts said the rise in crude oil futures was attributed to a firming trend in
Asia buoyed by solid gains in US stocks and stronger demand in the world's biggest
economy.
Meanwhile, crude oil for the August delivery added 99 cents to USD 104.52 a barrel
on the New York Mercantile Exchange in the morning trade.
Crude oil futures
firm up on
overseas cues.
Metals surge on
Fed's 'sustaining
stimulus'
comment.
Metals climbed after US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke backed sustaining of
the economic stimulus, rejecting the market speculation on its early withdrawal.
Copper jumped to the highest level in three months, while aluminium and other base
metals followed. Copper for immediate delivery on the London Metal Exchange hit
$7,000 a tonne before closing the morning session at $6,995, a rise of 3.18 per cent.
The Fed chief added the Federal Open Market Committee might opt to hold interest
rates near zero even after unemployment reached 6.5 per cent due to the possibility
of low inflation. Markets interpreted Bernanke's message as an indication of a
continuation in the economic stimulus against the earlier perception of its early
withdrawal. In metals, there might be a technical retracement to see little more
upsurge all across.
Market attributed the fall in copper futures to speculators offloading their positions
and tracking a weak global trend amid concerns of a slow economic growth in China
will hurt demand for metals.
Gold crash:-
Mining industry
may cry, not an
ounce more.

3. E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R
DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS
Jul 15, 5:30pm FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks
6:00pm Core Retail Sales m/m 0.5% 0.3%
6:00pm Retail Sales m/m 0.7% 0.6%
6:00pm Empire State Manufacturing Index 5.2 7.8
7:30pm Business Inventories m/m 0.2% 0.3%
Jul 16, 6:00pm Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.2%
6:00pm CPI m/m 0.3% 0.1%
6:30pm TIC Long-Term Purchases 14.3B -37.3B
6:45pm Capacity Utilization Rate 77.9% 77.6%
6:45pm Industrial Production m/m 0.3% 0.0%
7:30pm NAHB Housing Market Index 51 52
11:45pm FOMC Member George Speaks
Jul 17, 6:00pm Building Permits 1.00M 0.99M
6:00pm Housing Starts 0.95M 0.91M
7:30pm Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies
8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories -9.9M
10:00pm FOMC Member Raskin Speaks
11:30pm Beige Book
Jul 18, 6:00pm Unemployment Claims 349K 360K
7:30pm Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies
7:30pm Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 6.9 12.5
7:30pm CB Leading Index m/m 0.3% 0.1%
8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 82B
Jul 19, Day 1 ALL G20 Meetings
Jul 20, Day 2 ALL G20 Meetings
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4. S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
26185 25570 24830 26860 27535 28200
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
40500 39500 38500 42300 43340 44500
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX GOLD showed upward
movements and found resistance
around 61.8% retracement but unable
to close above it. Now if it is able to
sustain above 26800 then next
resistance is seen around 27450. On
lower side 50% retracement i.e. 26400
will act as immediate support for it,
below this it may drag towards the
next support level of 26000.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy
above 26900 for the target of 27500-
28000 with stop loss of 25990.
PIVOT TABLE
G O L D
PIVOT TABLE
S I L V E R
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX SILVER on weekly charts made
higher highs. Now, if it gives closing
above 42000 and able to sustain above
this then it may find resistance around
trend line on daily charts i.e. 43800
above which breakout is expected and
45000 is seen as major resistance for it.
On lower side 40700 is immediate
support for it below this it may find vital
support near 39900.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to sell below 39900 for
targets of 38500, with stop loss of 42000.

5. C R U D E O I L
C O P P E R
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S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
6155 5940 5710 6450 6700 6900
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
414 404.30 392.60 426.85 434.50 443.50
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Copper last week showed
sideways movement and found strong
resistance of 427. Now, if it able to
give closing above this then only bull
rally is expected towards the next
resistance level of 432 above which
breakout of trendline on daily charts is
expected. On other hand 414 is act as
important support for it, closing below
this may drag it towards next support
level of 405.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to buy
on dips for the targets of 6500-6700 with
stop loss of 6150.
PIVOT TABLE
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
Crude oil showed sideways movement
and consolidate on higher level. On
weekly charts it moves in an upward
channel pattern. Now, 6250 is act as
strong support for it, if it able to
sustain above this then it may find
resistance around upper band of
channel i.e. 6700. Correction is
expected only if it holds below 6250
where 6150 will act as major support.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX COPPER will be
buy above 427, with stop loss of 419 for
the targets of 435-440.
PIVOT TABLE

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