Luxembourg Blockchain Meetup 13 July 2016 - Bertolo
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Augur is a prediction market platform that uses a decentralized approach. It relies on REP token holders to report the outcomes of events and markets are resolved based on the majority report of REP holders. This avoids issues like identifying the intended subject ("Jane") in prediction market contracts. Prior investment in a market's outcome may drive convergence as the player with the highest potential payoff shapes consensus. Future prediction markets may have asymmetric payoff matrices and linked data challenges around concept reuse and semantic decay over time.
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Luxembourg Blockchain Meetup 13 July 2016 - Bertolo
- 1. How to represent ‘real life’ entities inside blockchains Stefano Bertolo stefano@ethereum.org @sclopit
- 2. Things that exist inside the blockchain • address myAddress= ‘0x4aed8f842020e7596ad9ac7f6f0b512864c4 8db2' • myAddress.balance • now
- 4. Prediction Markets • Contract C pays €100 if, by 31 December 2016 the Government of the UK will have invoked Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty and €0 otherwise • how much would you pay for contract C? • current price of contract is the collective expectation that event will occur
- 5. Intent of predictions • Contract C pays €100 if, by 31 December 2016 Jane will be married • Jane who?
- 7. Augur’s solution • Investors in the market own REP tokens • REP token holders are asked to report on outcome (and punished if they don’t) • market is resolved based on majority of REP token holder reports • the ‘real’/intended Jane is a Schelling Point
- 10. Rambutan Lychee Longan Rambutan 1,1 0,0 0,0 Lychee 0,0 1,1 0,0 Longan 0,0 0,0 1,1
- 11. A few conjectures for the future • Payoff matrices will often be asymmetric • player with the strongest prior investment (highest payoff) will drive convergence https://github.com/ sclopit/essays/blob/master/ontopreds.md • A Linked Data Scalability Challenge: Concept Reuse Leads to Semantic Decay http://arxiv.org/abs/ 1603.01722 • Sound emission and reception tuning in three cicada species sharing the same habitat http://scitation.aip.org/ content/asa/journal/jasa/127/3/10.1121/1.3291036