Fall TV Premieres Analysis

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Using Alterian SM2 we monitored the upcoming fall shows for the networks and made a few predictions on what shows will continue on and what shows will be canceled.

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Fall TV Premieres Analysis

  1. 1. Fall TV ShowDown:Using Social Data to Predict This Season’s TV Hits<br />Monitoring the buzz around the new shows from ABC, CBS, CW, FOX, FX, NBC & HBO<br />Jim Reynolds<br />jimmyrey@gmail.com<br />Twitter.com/jimmyrey<br />
  2. 2. Analysis Setup<br />Details:<br /><ul><li> Keywords for Top Fall shows
  3. 3. SM2 Category Rules for Topic
  4. 4. All Languages
  5. 5. Location Limited to US
  6. 6. 10 Weeks of Data</li></li></ul><li>Trend Analysis<br />Daily Volume<br />Analysis:<br /><ul><li> Conversation primarily driven by other media types (CW community + friendfeed + delicious)
  7. 7. Early spikes resulting from summer previews of fall shows
  8. 8. Major spike on 9/7 focused on the premiere of Terriers on FX
  9. 9. Major spike on 9/8 – 9/9 focused on the premiere of Nikita/Hellcats</li></li></ul><li>Trend Analysis<br />Share of Voice: <br />Ranking The New Shows<br />Analysis:<br />S#*! My Dad Says 18%<br />Hawaii 5-0 18%<br />Nikita - 14%<br />Hellcats - 13%<br />Boardwalk Empire - 8%<br />No Ordinary Family - 5%<br />Terriers – 4.6%<br />Undercovers – 4.4%<br />Outsourced – 4.2%<br />Blue Bloods – 4.2%<br />My Generation – 4.1%<br />Running Wilde – 3%<br />
  10. 10. Trend Analysis <br />Analysis:<br /><ul><li>No Ordinary Family & My Generation are trending at a similar pace
  11. 11. Audience is 65% male
  12. 12. Sentiment is split nearly 50/50</li></li></ul><li>Trend Analysis<br />Analysis:<br /><ul><li>S#*! My Dad Says had an early lead but late in July Hawaii 5-0 took off, while Blue Bloods remained a distant third
  13. 13. Audience is 55% male
  14. 14. Sentiment is generally positive*</li></ul>*Sentiment Dictionary was modified for “SH*T my dad says”<br />
  15. 15. Trend Analysis<br />Analysis:<br /><ul><li>Hellcats has the lead but Nikita just behind
  16. 16. Audience is 52% male – 48% female
  17. 17. Sentiment is predominately positive with a large increase around the premiere’s</li></li></ul><li>Trend Analysis<br />Analysis:<br /><ul><li>Terriers dominates Running Wilde
  18. 18. Audience is 65% male
  19. 19. Sentiment is slightly more positive than negative</li></li></ul><li>Trend Analysis<br />Analysis:<br /><ul><li>Boardwalk Empire has maintained consistent buzz that is slowly building before the premiere
  20. 20. Audience is 75% male
  21. 21. Boardwalk has the highest percentage of positive conversations among all shows</li></li></ul><li>Trend Analysis<br />Analysis:<br /><ul><li>Undercovers has a slight lead due to an early spike, but Outsouced has taken the lead since
  22. 22. Audience is 65% male
  23. 23. Sentiment is primarily negative with the conversation focused on Outsourced</li></li></ul><li>Predictions<br /><ul><li>Based on buzz alone, CBS seems to have a great shot at maintaining its leadership in prime-time television with consistently high ratings
  24. 24. HBO’s Boardwalk Empire has garnered the most positive sentiment
  25. 25. Based on the pre-premiere buzz, Running Wilde (FOX) and Outsourced (NBC) appear to have the highest chance to sink to the bottom</li>

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