Fall TV Premieres Analysis

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Using Alterian SM2 we monitored the upcoming fall shows for the networks and made a few predictions on what shows will continue on and what shows will be canceled.

Using Alterian SM2 we monitored the upcoming fall shows for the networks and made a few predictions on what shows will continue on and what shows will be canceled.

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  • 1. Fall TV ShowDown:Using Social Data to Predict This Season’s TV Hits
    Monitoring the buzz around the new shows from ABC, CBS, CW, FOX, FX, NBC & HBO
    Jim Reynolds
    jimmyrey@gmail.com
    Twitter.com/jimmyrey
  • 2. Analysis Setup
    Details:
    • Keywords for Top Fall shows
    • 3. SM2 Category Rules for Topic
    • 4. All Languages
    • 5. Location Limited to US
    • 6. 10 Weeks of Data
  • Trend Analysis
    Daily Volume
    Analysis:
    • Conversation primarily driven by other media types (CW community + friendfeed + delicious)
    • 7. Early spikes resulting from summer previews of fall shows
    • 8. Major spike on 9/7 focused on the premiere of Terriers on FX
    • 9. Major spike on 9/8 – 9/9 focused on the premiere of Nikita/Hellcats
  • Trend Analysis
    Share of Voice:
    Ranking The New Shows
    Analysis:
    S#*! My Dad Says 18%
    Hawaii 5-0 18%
    Nikita - 14%
    Hellcats - 13%
    Boardwalk Empire - 8%
    No Ordinary Family - 5%
    Terriers – 4.6%
    Undercovers – 4.4%
    Outsourced – 4.2%
    Blue Bloods – 4.2%
    My Generation – 4.1%
    Running Wilde – 3%
  • 10. Trend Analysis
    Analysis:
    • No Ordinary Family & My Generation are trending at a similar pace
    • 11. Audience is 65% male
    • 12. Sentiment is split nearly 50/50
  • Trend Analysis
    Analysis:
    • S#*! My Dad Says had an early lead but late in July Hawaii 5-0 took off, while Blue Bloods remained a distant third
    • 13. Audience is 55% male
    • 14. Sentiment is generally positive*
    *Sentiment Dictionary was modified for “SH*T my dad says”
  • 15. Trend Analysis
    Analysis:
    • Hellcats has the lead but Nikita just behind
    • 16. Audience is 52% male – 48% female
    • 17. Sentiment is predominately positive with a large increase around the premiere’s
  • Trend Analysis
    Analysis:
    • Terriers dominates Running Wilde
    • 18. Audience is 65% male
    • 19. Sentiment is slightly more positive than negative
  • Trend Analysis
    Analysis:
    • Boardwalk Empire has maintained consistent buzz that is slowly building before the premiere
    • 20. Audience is 75% male
    • 21. Boardwalk has the highest percentage of positive conversations among all shows
  • Trend Analysis
    Analysis:
    • Undercovers has a slight lead due to an early spike, but Outsouced has taken the lead since
    • 22. Audience is 65% male
    • 23. Sentiment is primarily negative with the conversation focused on Outsourced
  • Predictions
    • Based on buzz alone, CBS seems to have a great shot at maintaining its leadership in prime-time television with consistently high ratings
    • 24. HBO’s Boardwalk Empire has garnered the most positive sentiment
    • 25. Based on the pre-premiere buzz, Running Wilde (FOX) and Outsourced (NBC) appear to have the highest chance to sink to the bottom