This is a talk I gave at the first Velocity Europe Conference, in November 2011. The slides won't make too much sense without the video, which should be here:

1. ANTICIPATION
John Allspaw
SVP, Tech Ops
Velocity Europe 2011
Thursday, November 10, 2011

2. PREPARED?
Thursday, November 10, 2011

3. Thursday, November 10, 2011

4. (Anticipation) (Response)
Knowing Knowing Knowing Knowing
What What What What
To Expect To Look For To Do Has Happened
(Monitoring) (Learning)
Thursday, November 10, 2011

5. (Anticipation) (Response)
Knowing Knowing Knowing Knowing
What What What What
To Expect To Look For To Do Has Happened
(Monitoring) (Learning)
Thursday, November 10, 2011

6. Design
Work
Response
Learning
Thursday, November 10, 2011

7. “What could possibly
go wrong?”
Thursday, November 10, 2011

8. REQUISITE
IMAGINATION
Thursday, November 10, 2011

9. Architectural reviews
Go or No-Go meetings
“Game Day” exercises
Thursday, November 10, 2011

10. DESIGN
Thursday, November 10, 2011

11. Possible
Foreseeable
Situations
Situations Situations Situations
Considered By Considered By Considered By
Novice Designer Average Designer Expert Designer
Adamski and Westrum, 2003
Thursday, November 10, 2011

12. “No problem!
I design adaptive
systems.”
Thursday, November 10, 2011

13. Deepwater
Horizon
Thursday, November 10, 2011

14. Thursday, November 10, 2011

15. Challenger
Shuttle
Thursday, November 10, 2011

16. Thursday, November 10, 2011

17. Thursday, November 10, 2011

18. Thursday, November 10, 2011

19. Thursday, November 10, 2011

20. Adaptive
Systems
Expected
Variation
Thursday, November 10, 2011

21. Adaptive
Systems
Expected
Variation
Thursday, November 10, 2011

22. Adaptive
Systems
Expected
Variation
Thursday, November 10, 2011

23. New Disturbances Compensation is
Arise Exhausted
Disturbance
Expected
Variation
Control
compensation decompensation
Woods, 2011
Thursday, November 10, 2011

24. New Disturbances Compensation is
Arise Exhausted
Disturbance
Expected
Variation
Control
compensation decompensation
Thursday, November 10, 2011

25. New Disturbances Compensation is
Arise Exhausted
Disturbance
SYSTEMS
Target
Control
compensation decompensation
Thursday, November 10, 2011

26. New Disturbances Compensation is
Arise Exhausted
Disturbance
NETWORKS
Target
Control
compensation decompensation
Thursday, November 10, 2011

27. New Disturbances Compensation is
Arise Exhausted
Disturbance
STAFF
Target
Control
compensation decompensation
Thursday, November 10, 2011

28. New Disturbances Compensation is
Arise Exhausted
Disturbance
TOOLS
Target
Control
compensation decompensation
Thursday, November 10, 2011

29. New Disturbances Compensation is
Arise Exhausted
Disturbance
FUNDING
Target
Control
compensation decompensation
Thursday, November 10, 2011

30. New Disturbances Compensation is
Arise Exhausted
Disturbance
ANYTHING
Target
Control
compensation decompensation
Thursday, November 10, 2011

31. WORK
Thursday, November 10, 2011

32. Predictability
Given situation
Given individual
Thursday, November 10, 2011

33. Uncertainty
Of Events
Unknowable Unthought-of situations
Unknown
Potential situations
Known
Anticipation Skill
(Cuvelier and Falzon, 2011)
Thursday, November 10, 2011

34. Uncertainty
Of Events
Unknowable Unthought-of situations
Unknown
Potential situations
Known
Anticipation Skill
(Cuvelier and Falzon, 2011)
Thursday, November 10, 2011

35. Uncertainty
Of Events
Unknowable Unthought-of situations
Unknown
Potential situations
Known
Anticipation Skill
(Cuvelier and Falzon, 2011)
Thursday, November 10, 2011

36. Uncertainty
Of Events
Unthought-of
Unknowable situations
Unknown Potential
situations
Known
Anticipation Skill
(Cuvelier and Falzon, 2011)
Thursday, November 10, 2011

37. RESPONSE
Thursday, November 10, 2011

38. RESPONSE
Thursday, November 10, 2011

39. RESPONSE
Thursday, November 10, 2011

40. LEARNING
Thursday, November 10, 2011

41. TIME
Thursday, November 10, 2011

42. SUCCEED
MATURELY
Thursday, November 10, 2011

43. DANGER
Thursday, November 10, 2011

44. “What an immense mass of evil
must result...from allowing men
to assume the right of
anticipating what may happen.”
Leo Tolstoy
Thursday, November 10, 2011

45. ?
Haphazard Paranoid
Cowboy Paralysis
Thursday, November 10, 2011

46. Sources of
Anticipation
Traumatic Mature
Experience Requisite
Imagination
Thursday, November 10, 2011

47. (Anticipation) (Response)
Knowing Knowing Knowing Knowing
What What What What
To Expect To Look For To Do Has Happened
(Monitoring) (Learning)
Thursday, November 10, 2011

48. FEAR
Thursday, November 10, 2011

49. CONFIDENCE
Thursday, November 10, 2011

50. REQUISITE
IMAGINATION
Thursday, November 10, 2011

51. Constant Sense Of
UNEASE
Thursday, November 10, 2011

52. CONFIDENCE
Thursday, November 10, 2011

53. Homework!
Thursday, November 10, 2011

54. 1. What do you expect to happen?
2.What might fail during this scenario?
Homework!
Thursday, November 10, 2011

55. First:
individuals
Then:
As a group
Homework!
Thursday, November 10, 2011

56. Expectations?
Potential failures?
Group versus individual?
?
Homework!
Thursday, November 10, 2011

57. CONFIDENCE
Thursday, November 10, 2011

58. The End
Thursday, November 10, 2011

59. References
Material in this talk comes from a variety of sources.
These should be considered mandatory reading for operating and
designing any complex systems.
• Resilience Engineering in Practice, Ashgate (http://bit.ly/t7cnXC )
• Ch 10, Handbook of Cognitive Task Design, CRC Press (http://
amzn.to/s9Qo8n)
• Resilience Engineering Perspectives, Ashgate (http://bit.ly/rFVtvo)
Thursday, November 10, 2011