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Special Technical Perspective
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Special Technical Perspective
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Special Technical Perspective
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Special Technical Perspective

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Tactical move to “Take Profit Stance” Since the KLCI made a Wave 3 low at …

Tactical move to “Take Profit Stance” Since the KLCI made a Wave 3 low at
801.27 (Oct ’08), the next key swings were at 936.63 (Wave 4A in Jan ’09) and
at 836.51 (Wave 4B in Mar ’09). We have peaked at 1,059.88 for Wave 4C.
There is an obvious minor 5 sub-wave sequence that ended the KLCI’s
rebound run to 1,059.88 on 27 May ’09.
Upward retracement targets for the KLCI were met. Our KLCI rebound
targets of 1,043.78 and 1,053.18 were slightly exceeded. With abundant
bearish divergence indicators (ADX, CCI, MACD, MACD Histogram, Oscillator,
RSI, ROC and Stochastic), we believe that the KLCI has peaked temporarily at
1,059.88.
The KL Plantation Index (KLPLN) peaked at 5,515.37. The KLPLN Index
peaked at this level on 21 May ’09. With the obvious bearish divergence
indicators on this index and also the sequence of poorer profit figures for SIME
and KLK, we believe that the KLPLN Index has much further room to fall.
CPOF Elliott Wave Count is also “3-3-5 Flat”. With the KLCI and KLPLN
Indices (and some of their key plantation components like IOICORP and KLK)
having a rebound “3-3-5” Flat Wave structure, the CPOF also traced out a
similar Wave rebound to RM2,799. Ample bearish divergence at RM2,799 also
suggests that the CPOF had peaked at that level on 13 May ’09.
Watch the Ringgit against USD. Some short-term hedge funds had entered
Malaysia in the last 2 months. With this, currency and equity market
appreciation for them may be in the 10% to 30%-region in total. As such, they
may not have any hesitation in exiting their speculative trades. Therefore, do
watch the Ringgit’s prices against the USD as a sign of hedge funds exiting the
country.
Tactically, take most positions off the table. As mentioned in our special
article on 10 Apr ’09, we stated that the “Bull Run” that began in early Mar ’09
was one of a “Bluff-Bull” nature. We firmly believe that a temporary top for the
KLCI formed yesterday at 1,059.88. As such, take most equity on 27 May
positions off the table and realize profits. A larger cash pile is preferable in view
of the potential US and local market downturn in the next few weeks.
News flow has turned negative. The poorer recent Malaysia GDP figures
have taken the markets by surprise. Also, the results of the plantation
companies such as SIME and KLK suggest that the market has run ahead of
true economic fundamentals.
Volumes and market liquidity shrinking As the market rose to 1,037.81, the
traded volumes were quite high (just under 4b). However, with the market
rising to higher levels such as 1,059.88, volumes traded were between 1b to
2b. As liquidity shrinks, it is more difficult for large funds to sell. Selling or
liquidation will take more days to complete and therefore, it has shown up in
the exhausting and bearish divergent indicators.
The defensive stocks are: We believe that despite the potential KLCI
downturn, there are some price defensive components. Among them are
AIRPORT, MMCCORP, PROTON & SUNCITY. Continue to buy them on dips.

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  • 1. Equity Research PP11072/03/2010 (023549) TECHNICALS 29 May 2009 Special Technical Perspective Highs seen on the KLCI, KLPLN Index, CPOF? Lee Cheng Hooi  A temporary high seen at 1,059.88 for the KLCI chenghooi.lee@maybank-ib.com (603) 2297 8694  A high point was also seen on the KL Plantation Index at 5,515.37  An obvious rebound CPO peak seen at RM2,799 too  We advise clients to “Take Profits” since our April Buy Call of 917.89 on the KLCI Tactical move to “Take Profit Stance” Since the KLCI made a Wave 3 low at 801.27 (Oct ’08), the next key swings were at 936.63 (Wave 4A in Jan ’09) and at 836.51 (Wave 4B in Mar ’09). We have peaked at 1,059.88 for Wave 4C. There is an obvious minor 5 sub-wave sequence that ended the KLCI’s rebound run to 1,059.88 on 27 May ’09. Upward retracement targets for the KLCI were met. Our KLCI rebound targets of 1,043.78 and 1,053.18 were slightly exceeded. With abundant bearish divergence indicators (ADX, CCI, MACD, MACD Histogram, Oscillator, RSI, ROC and Stochastic), we believe that the KLCI has peaked temporarily at 1,059.88. The KL Plantation Index (KLPLN) peaked at 5,515.37. The KLPLN Index peaked at this level on 21 May ’09. With the obvious bearish divergence indicators on this index and also the sequence of poorer profit figures for SIME and KLK, we believe that the KLPLN Index has much further room to fall. CPOF Elliott Wave Count is also “3-3-5 Flat”. With the KLCI and KLPLN Indices (and some of their key plantation components like IOICORP and KLK) having a rebound “3-3-5” Flat Wave structure, the CPOF also traced out a similar Wave rebound to RM2,799. Ample bearish divergence at RM2,799 also suggests that the CPOF had peaked at that level on 13 May ’09. Watch the Ringgit against USD. Some short-term hedge funds had entered Malaysia in the last 2 months. With this, currency and equity market appreciation for them may be in the 10% to 30%-region in total. As such, they may not have any hesitation in exiting their speculative trades. Therefore, do watch the Ringgit’s prices against the USD as a sign of hedge funds exiting the country. Tactically, take most positions off the table. As mentioned in our special article on 10 Apr ’09, we stated that the “Bull Run” that began in early Mar ’09 was one of a “Bluff-Bull” nature. We firmly believe that a temporary top for the KLCI formed yesterday at 1,059.88. As such, take most equity on 27 May positions off the table and realize profits. A larger cash pile is preferable in view of the potential US and local market downturn in the next few weeks. News flow has turned negative. The poorer recent Malaysia GDP figures have taken the markets by surprise. Also, the results of the plantation companies such as SIME and KLK suggest that the market has run ahead of true economic fundamentals. Volumes and market liquidity shrinking As the market rose to 1,037.81, the traded volumes were quite high (just under 4b). However, with the market rising to higher levels such as 1,059.88, volumes traded were between 1b to 2b. As liquidity shrinks, it is more difficult for large funds to sell. Selling or liquidation will take more days to complete and therefore, it has shown up in the exhausting and bearish divergent indicators. The defensive stocks are: We believe that despite the potential KLCI downturn, there are some price defensive components. Among them are AIRPORT, MMCCORP, PROTON & SUNCITY. Continue to buy them on dips.
  • 2. Special Technical Perspective Chart 1: CPOF Weekly Chart with Elliott Wave Count Source: Advanced GET, Maybank-IB The CPOF made an all-time high of RM4,486 in Mar ’08. Since then, it plunged to its key levels of RM3,033 (Wave 1), RM3,750 (Wave 2) and RM1,331 (Wave 3). Since the low of RM1,331, prices have more than doubled to RM2,799 (for its Wave 4C rebound). We believed that the CPOF’s rebound from RM1,331 will stall in the RM2,536 to RM2,540 retracement area. But it stalled temporarily at that level and then shot upwards to RM2,798 and RM2,799 in May ’09 before falling off. We now believe that the CPOF may fall further towards its supports of RM2,058, RM2,322 and RM2,350. Sell at the current resistance levels of RM2,505, RM2,604 and RM2,799 for a longer-term drift down towards the indicative support areas above. Chart 2: KLPLN Index Daily Chart with Elliott Wave Count Source: Advanced GET, Maybank-IB TECHNICAL PERSPECTIVE ▪ 29 May 2009 Page 2 of 6
  • 3. Special Technical Perspective The KLPLN Index rose on its rebound move towards the 5,515.37 high (21 May ’09). We believe that the KLPLN has reached its Wave 5 rebound to that level. There are abundant bearish divergent signals on the KLPLN Index. As such, selling on any rebound to the resistance areas of 5,391, 5,411 and 5,513 could cap the KLPLN’s upside moves, whilst the support areas of 4,773, 5,008 and 5,172 could be weaker. Chart 3: KLK Daily Chart with Elliott Wave Count Source: Advanced GET, Maybank-IB With a significantly weaker profit trend for KLK, the market reacted by selling KLK down viciously since its Wave 5 high of RM12.50 (21 May ’09). There are abundant bearish divergent signals on KLK. Therefore, selling on any rebound to the resistance areas of RM11.50, RM12.00 and RM12.50 could cap KLK’s upside moves, whilst the support areas of RM10.00, RM10.90 and RM11.20 could be weaker. Chart 4: IOICORP Daily Chart with Elliott Wave Count Source: Advanced GET, Maybank-IB TECHNICAL PERSPECTIVE ▪ 29 May 2009 Page 3 of 6
  • 4. Special Technical Perspective With a significantly weaker tone for plantation counters, the market reacted by selling IOICORP down viciously since its Wave 5 high of RM4.86 (21 May ’09). There are abundant bearish divergent signals on IOICORP. As such, selling on any rebound to the resistance areas of RM4.60, RM4.72 and RM4.86 could cap IOICORP’s upside moves, whilst the support areas of RM4.02, RM4.28 and RM4.52 could be weaker. Chart 5: ASIATIC Daily Chart with Elliott Wave Count Source: Advanced GET, Maybank-IB With a significantly weaker tone for plantation counters, the market reacted by selling ASIATIC down viciously since its Wave 5 high of RM5.65 (28 May ’09). There are abundant bearish divergent signals on ASIATIC. Therefore, selling on any rebound to the resistance areas of RM5.45, RM5.65 and RM5.90 could cap ASIATIC’s upside moves, whilst the support areas of RM4.70, RM5.10 and RM5.35 could be weaker. Chart 6: SIME Daily Chart with Elliott Wave Count Source: Advanced GET, Maybank-IB TECHNICAL PERSPECTIVE ▪ 29 May 2009 Page 4 of 6
  • 5. Special Technical Perspective With a significantly weaker tone to its earnings, market players reacted by selling SIME down viciously since its Wave 5 high of RM7.05 (21 May ’09). There are abundant bearish divergent signals on SIME. As such, selling on any rebound to the resistance areas of RM6.75, RM7.00 and RM7.05 could cap SIME’s upside moves, whilst the support areas of RM6.00 RM6.25 and RM6.60 could be weaker. Chart 7: PPB Daily Chart with Elliott Wave Count Source: Advanced GET, Maybank-IB With a significantly weaker tone for plantation sector, the market reacted by selling PPB down viciously since its Wave 5 high of RM11.70 (13 May ’09). There are abundant bearish divergent signals for PPB. Therefore, selling on any rebound to the resistance areas of RM10.80, RM11.20 and RM11.70 could cap PPB’s upside moves, whilst the support areas of RM10.00, RM10.30 and RM10.60 could be weaker. Take action and profits on any rally We believe that it is time to pare down portfolios and take out good profits for this “Bluff Bull” rebound run. US, European and Asian markets as well as the local bourse have run ahead of true economic fundamentals. As a result of their overbought conditions, we believe that investors should move more into cash and reduce their equity positions. Since our market Buy Call on the KLCI on 10 April at 917.89, we suggest taking profits on rallies. We see the plantation sector, CPOF and the KLPLN Index as technically tired and overvalued. Confirmation that the sector had run ahead of its fundamentals came with a poor set of results for SIME and KLK. We echo our fundamental analyst’s “Underweight” Call on the plantation sector. Meanwhile, continue to accumulate counters such as AIRPORT, ASTRO, MMCCORP, PROTON, SHELL and SUNCITY on weakness. They look very strong technically and seem price defensive in the potential KLCI downturn. TECHNICAL PERSPECTIVE ▪ 29 May 2009 Page 5 of 6
  • 6. Special Technical Perspective Definition of Technical Ratings Maybank Investment Bank Research uses the following technical rating system: FIRM BUY (TECHNICAL) Total return is expected to exceed 20% in the next 1 month. ACCUMULATE (TECHNICAL) Total return is expected to be above 10% in the next 2 weeks. STRONG SELL (TECHNICAL) Total return is expected to drop below 20% in the next 1 month. TAKE PROFIT (TECHNICAL) Total return is expected to drop below 10% in the next 2 weeks. SHORT-TERM BUY (TECHNICAL) Total return is expected to be between 5-10% in the next 2 weeks. However, the upside may or may not be sustainable. Applicability of Technical Ratings Technical ratings are purely based on price and volume-related indicators extracted from Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad, explained in the Glossary below. Featured securities are selected as and when their technical indicators appear convincing for an investment action. Maybank Investment Bank Bhd expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise its Technical Ratings to reflect new information, events or circumstances after the date of this publication or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. Glossary of key technical terms COMMODITY CHANNEL An oscillator used in technical analysis to help determine when an investment vehicle has been overbought and INDEX (CCI) oversold. It quantifies the relationship between the asset's price, a moving average (MA) of the asset's price, and normal deviations (D) from that average. DIRECTIONAL An indicator for identifying when a definable trend is present in an instrument, i.e. the DMI tells whether an MOVEMENT INDEX (DMI) instrument is trending or not. MOVING AVERAGE A trend lagging momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of prices. A CONVERGENCE “signal line” is also plotted on top of the MACD to function as a trigger for buy and sell signals. DIVERGENCE (MACD) OSCILLATOR A technical analysis tool that is banded between two extreme values and built with the results from a trend indicator for discovering short-term overbought or oversold conditions. As the oscillator approaches the upper extreme value the stock is overbought, while in the lower extreme it is oversold. RELATIVE STRENGTH A technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent losses to determine overbought and INDEX (RSI) oversold conditions of the stock. The stock is overbought (overvalued) once the RSI approaches the 80-level. Meanwhile, the stock is oversold (undervalued) as the RSI approaches the 20-level. STOCHASTIC A technical momentum indicator that compares a security’s closing price to its price range over a given time period. The stock is overbought when the indicator is above 80 and oversold when it is below 20. Source: Investopedia.com Disclaimer This report is for information purposes only and under no circumstances is it to be considered or intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities referred to herein. Investors should note that income from such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each security’s price or value may rise or fall. Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in form of technical ratings and fundamental ratings. Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply different methodologies and are purely based on price and volume-related information extracted from Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad in the equity analysis. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, the financial situation and the particular needs of persons who may receive or read this report. Investors should therefore seek financial, legal and other advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or the investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but such sources have not been independently verified by Maybank Investment Bank Bhd and consequently no representation is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this report by Maybank Investment Bank Bhd and it should not be relied upon as such. Accordingly, no liability can be accepted for any direct, indirect or consequential losses or damages that may arise from the use or reliance of this report. Maybank Investment Bank Bhd, its affiliates and related companies and their officers, directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees may from time to time have positions or be materially interested in the securities referred to herein and may further act as market maker or may have assumed an underwriting commitment or deal with such securities and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services, advisory and other services for or relating to those companies. Any information, opinions or recommendations contained herein are subject to change at any time, without prior notice. This report may contain forward looking statements which are often but not always identified by the use of words such as “anticipate”, “believe”, “estimate”, “intend”, “plan”, “expect”, “forecast”, “predict” and “project” and statements that an event or result “may”, “will”, “can”, “should”, “could” or “might” occur or be achieved and other similar expressions. Such forward looking statements are based on assumptions made and information currently available to us and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those expressed in any forward looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue relevance on these forward-looking statements. Maybank Investment Bank Bhd expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise any such forward looking statements to reflect new information, events or circumstances after the date of this publication or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. This report is prepared for the use of Maybank Investment Bank Bhd’s clients and may not be reproduced, altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party in whole or in part in any form or manner without the prior express written consent of Maybank Investment Bank Bhd and Maybank Investment Bank Bhd accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect. This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. Published / Printed by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad (15938-H) (Formerly known as Aseambankers Malaysia Berhad) (A Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad) 33rd Floor, Menara Maybank, 100 Jalan Tun Perak, 50050 Kuala Lumpur Tel: (603) 2059 1888; Fax: (603) 2078 4194 Stockbroking Business: Level 8, MaybanLife Tower, Dataran Maybank, No.1, Jalan Maarof 59000 Kuala Lumpur Tel: (603) 2297 8888; Fax: (603) 2282 5136 http://www.maybank-ib.com TECHNICAL PERSPECTIVE ▪ 29 May 2009 Page 6 of 6

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