The economic stagnation that affects Brazil at the moment tends to worsen if Dilma Rousseff is re-elected considering she would not be able to overcome enormous economic challenges of the country within the framework of the neoliberal model in place. With Dilma Rousseff, the economic depression will inevitably come after the stage of stagflation in which we live. In contrast, Aécio Neves would have more conditions to minimize the effects of the current crisis due to the support of holders that have national and international financial capital unlike a government Dilma Rousseff. The only way to Dilma Rousseff overcome the current crisis would be to adopt an economic model that give preference to national interests and not those of national and international finance capital interests. This possibility does not exist because the PT has no credibility nationally to lead a break with the national and international financial capital.

1. SCENARIOS OF BRAZIL AFTER PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
Fernando Alcoforado *
It is the purpose of this article to trace the scenario in Brazil after the presidential
elections in the economic and social aspects considering two alternatives: 1) victory of
Dilma Rousseff from PT (Worker Party); and, 2) victory of Aécio Neves from PSDB
(Brazilian Social Democracy Party). With both Dilma Rousseff and with Aécio Neves,
the current stagnation of the Brazilian economy which is currently will accentuate that
will occur simultaneously with the rise in inflation which will result the phenomenon of
stagflation. Most likely, it will grow the deficit in the balance of payments due to the
fall in export revenue and the increase in remittances of profits and dividends by
multinational companies that have grown dramatically in recent years, far outpacing the
value of remittances of foreign debt interest.
Faced with the prospect of increasing the deficit in the balance of payments, Brazilian
government, with both Rousseff and with Neves, it will raise the basic rate of the
economy (Selic) to attract the inflow of dollars seeking to cover the deficit in the
balance of payments. The Brazilian government's attempt to attract the inflow of dollars
aimed at covering the deficit in the balance of payments can be more successful with the
Aécio Neves government than with Dilma Rousseff government because the credibility
of the PSDB candidate along to outside investors is greater than the PT candidate. The
manifestation of the magazine The Economist contrary to the Dilma Rousseff
government's economic policy and the Financial Times supporting Aécio Neves
demonstrates this statement.
As far as the inflow of dollars to cover the deficit in the balance of payments, foreign
direct investment, in turn, tends also to fall due to likely decline in the growth of the
Brazilian economy. No external investor would invest in Brazil with a stagnant
economy as it is right now. Unlike Dilma Rousseff, Aécio Neves will have greater
ability to reverse this downward trend in foreign direct investment because their
credibility with foreign investors is higher than that of the PT candidate. The
manifestation of the magazine The Economist contrary to the Dilma Rousseff
government's economic policy and the Financial Times supporting Aécio Neves
demonstrates this statement.
One consequence of the increase in the Selic rate will discourage investment in
productive activity aggravating further the stagnation of the Brazilian economy. The
stagnation of the Brazilian economy will cause there are also falling government
revenues at all levels so that there is no public resources for investment in enough to
invest in economic and social infrastructure quantity as well as to maintain the social
income transfer programs as the "Bolsa Familia". Rationally, to face the fall in public
revenues, the federal government should dramatically reduce the operational cost of
government that would imply the reduction of ministries which today totals 39 and
more than 20,000 commissioned positions, rationalization of public service, beyond the
unrelenting fight corruption. Hardly, Dilma Rousseff adopt such measures as would
jeopardize the interests of his political allies, unlike Aécio Neves who already said that
he would act this way.
The stagnation of the Brazilian economy and the increase in bank interest rates
contribute to the decline in public and private investment and hence the generation of
employment and income for the population of Brazil. This will cause a worsening of the
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2. social situation of Brazil. Unemployment rate that is currently 20.8% of the
economically active population and not 4.9% as reported by Brazilian government is
likely to grow in coming years. Very rarely, a future government Dilma Rousseff would
be successful in reversing the trend of increasing unemployment because doesn´t have
credibility to attract foreign capital to invest in Brazil and cause investors resident in
Brazil to invest in the expansion of domestic production capacity. The increase in
unemployment will cause increase social tensions that will rise further with increasing
rates of inflation. In contrast, a government Aécio Neves would have more credibility to
attract foreign capital, making private investments possible and fight against inflation
with increased supply of goods and services provided by increased investment in the
economy.
Governments Dilma Rousseff or Aécio Neves should maintain openness of the
Brazilian economy that, since 1990, worsened the situation of the Brazilian industry that
lost competitiveness due to barriers represented by “Brazil Cost” (high real interest
rates, high tax burden, high costs labor, high costs of the pension system, complex and
inefficient tax laws, high cost of electricity, poor infrastructure and lack of skilled
labor). One solution to avoid this would be to reduce interest rates, tax burden and the
tariff of energy, promote the improvement of infrastructure and better qualification the
workforce that is part of the candidate Aécio Neves program. Dilma Rousseff
government took four years to implement these actions and did not. A true reversal of
trend towards industrialization of Brazil should consider, ultimately replacing the
neoliberal model in force for national development model that neither of both
candidates would dare to undertake.
Brazilian international reserves that reached US$ 370 billion in June 2013 tends to have
a negative progression due to the prospect of growing deficit in the balance of payments
on current account. There will be reduction of international reserves, which would then
be used to cover the deficit in the balance of payments. This problem should not be
neglected because Brazil has US$ 370 billion dollars in international reserves that may
need to resort to them in the coming months if foreign investors lose faith in the
economic growth of Brazil that features fall into recent developments and fail to invest
in Brazil . Among the candidates Dilma Rousseff and Aécio Neves, the latter would
have greater chances of avoiding regression of international reserves because it would
have more credibility to attract foreign capital.
Has been increasing the allocation of budget resources for the payment of interest and
amortization of internal public debt corresponding to 43.98% of the Brazilian
government budget. Maintained the trend to allocate more resources for the payment of
interest and amortization of debt, there will be fewer resources available (federal, state
and local) government to invest in economic and social infrastructure. To address this
situation, the Brazilian government should dramatically reduce its operational cost that
would result in the reduction of ministries which now totals 39 and more than 20,000
commissioned positions, relentlessly fight corruption and renegotiate with creditors
aimed at lengthening of payment of interest and amortization of internal public debt.
Among the candidates Dilma Rousseff and Aécio Neves, the latter would more success
likely to adopt these measures.
From the foregoing, it is evident that the economic stagnation that affects Brazil at the
moment tends to worsen if Dilma Rousseff is re-elected considering she would not be
able to overcome enormous economic challenges of the country within the framework
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3. of the neoliberal model in place. With Dilma Rousseff, the economic depression will
inevitably come after the stage of stagflation in which we live. In contrast, Aécio Neves
would have more conditions to minimize the effects of the current crisis due to the
support of holders that have national and international financial capital unlike a
government Dilma Rousseff. The only way to Dilma Rousseff overcome the current
crisis would be to adopt an economic model that give preference to national interests
and not those of national and international finance capital interests. This possibility does
not exist because the PT has no credibility nationally to lead a break with the national
and international financial capital.
* Fernando Alcoforado , member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor of Territorial
Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, a university professor and
consultant in strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is
the author of Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova
(Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São
Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado.
Universidade de Barcelona, http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e
Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX
e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of
the Economic and Social Development-The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Muller
Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe
Planetária (P&A Gráfica e Editora, Salvador, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e
combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011)
and Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012),
among others.
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