Sue Schuler, Past President, Wisconsin Center for Nursing Victoria Udalova, Economist, Dept. of Workforce DevelopmentJudy Warmuth, V.P. Workforce, Wisconsin Hospital Association
Institute of Medicine The Future of Nursing Key MessageEffective workforce planning andpolicy making require better datacollection and improved informationinfrastructure.
Wisconsin Statutory Language• Requires nurses renewing their license to complete a survey on potential nursing shortages.• $4.00 renewal fee.• Statewide nursing center to collaborate with nursing constituents develop strategies to ensure there is an adequate nursing workforce.
Healthiest Wisconsin Partnership Grant (HWPP)Funded DWD and the Wisconsin Center for Nursing to:• Review nursing workforce supply questions and methodologies from other states. This included participation in the review and input into the national minimum nursing supply data set .• Determine methodology for collecting nurse data.• Analyze and distribute nursing workforce data.• Survey educational programs that prepare RN’s for capacity data and share results.
Size of the current workforce; how many nurses of each type working how many hours? Wisconsin’s future nursing demand. Does the current educational system provide for that need?
18 16 14 12 10 8 Percent of total 6 4 2 0 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70 and aboveFrom 2010 RN Survey
Registered Nurses Wisconsin Residents White 94.7% White 89.4% Black/African Black/African American 2.1% American 6.2% Hispanic 5.9% Hispanic 1.2%
Advance Practice NursesNurses in Wisconsin with a Master’s degree that prepares them to be an advanced practice nurse 5,110Nurses in Wisconsin with a Master’s degree practicing as an Advanced Practice Nurse 3,802
All RNs 77,553 RNs working in health care 68,497 RNs working in health care in Wisconsin 61,094
Academic education 2.3% Ambulatory Care 14.6% Home Health 4.2% Hospital 49.9% Nursing Home/Extended Care 11.3% Public Health 4.7% Other 13.0%
Primary Place of Wisconsin Primary Place of Wisconsin Work Nurses Work Nurses 2010 2001 Number Percent Number PercentHospital 30731 49.9 Hospital 30,675 54Ambulatory Care 8977 14.6 Outpatient Clinic 8,548 15Public/Community 2986 4.7 Public/Community 5,986 11Health HealthHome Health 2588 4.2Nursing/Extended 6927 11.3 Nursing Home 6,074 11careAcademic 1406 2.3 Nursing Education 1,129 2EducationOther 8017 13.0
Hours worked per Respondents PercentweekLess than 20 3,289 7.520-35 17,128 39.136-40 17,017 38.941-48 3,064 7.049 and more hours 3,293 7.5
Ambulatory Care 789Home Health 400Hospital 3,766Nursing Home/Extended Care 740Public/Community Health 182Other 470
In less than 2 years 2,377 In 2 to 4 years 6,658 In 5 to 9 years 9,484 In 10 or more years 32,049
What will future demand be? How many hours will future nurses work? How acutely ill will future patients be? Where will patients receive healthcare (where will nurses work?)
How many new RNs do we need and where are they needed? When? How many new Master’s prepared nurses do we need? (Oh and what type of Master’s?) When? How many new Doctorally prepared nurses do we need? When?
Forecasting Nursing Workforce Victoria Udalova, EconomistOffice of Economic Advisors, Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development October 8, 2010 Victoria Udalova, Economist Forecasting Nursing Workforce
Affordable, high quality health care requires acompetent, diverse, and sufficient supply of nurses,and a shortage of nurses currently exists nationally. HRSA, 2004 Victoria Udalova, Economist Forecasting Nursing Workforce
National Nursing Forecast • 2004 Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA) study projected that there will be a shortage of over 10,000 FTE nurses in Wisconsin by 2020 • The study is nationally focused and relies on a relatively small sample size • Reports and analysis previously generated by the HRSA have not been updated because of federal funding cuts Victoria Udalova, Economist Forecasting Nursing Workforce
History of Data Collection Success • In 2007, DWD developed a comparable model to the HRSA version • Inability to populate the model with robust data served as a catalyst for moving the data effort forward • A workgroup of the health care sector sub- committee of the Council on Workforce Investment (CWI), Wisconsin Health Workforce Data Collaborative, received Medical College of Wisconsin (MCW) grant Victoria Udalova, Economist Forecasting Nursing Workforce
History of Data Collection Success • Senator Robson language was signed into law in 2009 Wisconsin Act 28 (2009-11 Budget Bill) on June 29, 2009 mandating the completion of a workforce survey • The survey incorporated the National Minimum Nurse Supply Data Set, developed by the Forum of State Nursing Workforce Centers and funded by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and AARP Victoria Udalova, Economist Forecasting Nursing Workforce
Current Work on Forecasting Model • Over 77,000 nurse responses are being analyzed and aggregated • At this time, our focus is on the basic statewide nursing supply model • The model is divided by: - 13 age groups - gender - number (head count) of RNs and FTE RNs - direct patient care practitioners and the broad nursing workforce • Guiding force for the base supply projections are changing demographics, and the overall population growth Victoria Udalova, Economist Forecasting Nursing Workforce
Upcoming Work and Forecasting Results • Supply model has the potential for scenario analyses such as incorporating inflow/outflow changes • Statewide demand for nursing will be generated after the nursing supply projections are completed • Alternative forecasting demand models are being reviewed now • Supply/Demand relationship will be analyzed to estimate the gap • Results will serve as a guide for policymakers Victoria Udalova, Economist Forecasting Nursing Workforce
• Develop and distribute a comprehensive report of the RN survey.• Convene nurse researchers to do an in-depth review of the survey data.• Initiate regional forums to review the data and develop recommendations for nursing education and practice.• Work with the Nursing Coalition to determine needs based on trends in nursing specialties.
• Collect the national nursing education minimum data set from all nursing programs in WI.• Review national recommendations on “best practices”.• Analysis the data collected and develop recommendations based on identified needs in WI. and best practices.• Convene a “Best practice Retreat” to plan for education capacity, access and diversity.