The market detective is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT). He uses technical analysis to identify market turning points and opportunities. He is primarily an Elliottician, he uses the Elliott wave principle and Fibonacci ratio analysis to uncover clues about the direction of the market. He uses other forms of technical analysis to corroborate his findings in such a way as to assign a probability factor to them.

1. 11/18/20088:05 PM Pacific
The weekly targets from the past few days are not far below, but at this rate, and
due to the timeframe of those charts (weekly), it could take, well, week(s) to get
there. Venturing back into the weeds to see if anything makes sense, I think we
will probably continue with the wiggly party instead of breaking down. There are
two probable short-term outcomes in the Diagonal proposed last week.
Option 1 is that we already completed wave 3 of the diagonal on 11/13 and are
on wave 4. Wave 4 targets the descending trend line of the diagonal (955-960).
Option 1
Option 2A involves continuing down in 3 waves from the high made into the close
today to the descending bottom channel of the diagonal (814ish), then turning
back up to start wave 4. This would complete a very complex wave 3 of the
diagonal. Wave 4 will target the descending trend line above in 3 waves.

2. 11/18/20088:05 PM Pacific
A slight variation of this, option2B (shown), retraces roughly half of the move up
today then pushes up to 870-880 and turns back down targeting the bottom of
the diagonal. I would then expect wave 4 to turn up from 814 and target the
descending trend line above in 3 waves.
A strong move through 880 favors Option 1 above.
Option2B
The reversal into the close tilts the bias toward option1. Either way, price action
is going to remain wild and choppy.
A breakdown out the bottom the diagonal negates this thesis. The targets I have
provided over the past few days are still valid in the event this happens.
TMD/DW
The market detective provides personal market opinion based on sound technical
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3. 11/18/20088:05 PM Pacific
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