The report gives an overall macroeconomic overview followed by latest real estate updates and trends in each city through rental and capital value trends, new projects as well as market prognosis for 2013 onwards. This quarter, the premium residential markets in India have shown an upward trend, with capital values increasing in the range of 5 to 10% QoQ. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reduced the repo and reverse repo rates by 25 basis points from 8.00% to 7.75% in Jan 2013 to induce immediate liquidity in the market. Following suit, a few banks such as SBI and HDFC marginally reduced their home loan rates by 5 to 10 basis points. The RBI also allowed Electronic Commercial Borrowing (EC B) for low cost affordable housing projects as a permissible end-use under the approval route. Now not only, developers and builders can avail EC B for low-cost affordable housing projects, but Housing Finance Companies (HFC s) and National Housing Board (NHB) can also avail of EC B for financing prospective owners of low-cost affordable housing units.
We anticipate that the mid-segment residential market will continue to remain active in markets like Bangalore, Pune, Chennai and NOIDA due to their favourable affordability quotient in the medium term. Meanwhile, markets like those in Mumbai, Delhi and Gurgaon will continue to fetch premium value in the luxury segment.
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2. INDIA | FEB 2013 | residential
Research & forecast report
SYDNEY CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
research & forecast Report
India RESIDENTIAL market
MACRO ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
• GDP growth in the third quarter (July to September) of 2012 was 5.3%, contracted marginally
from the previous quarter’s 5.5%.
• The headline inflation based on the whole sale price index edged down to 6.95% for the month
of January 2013, as compared to 7.18% in December 2012.
• The Reserve Bank of India reduced the repo and reverse repo rates by 25 basis points from
8.00% to 7.75% in Jan 2013 to induce immediate liquidity in the market. Following suit, a few
banks such as SBI and HDFC marginally reduced their home loan rates by 5 to 10 basis points.
ECONOMIC BAROMETER • This quarter, the reserve bank of India allowed Electronic Commercial Borrowing (ECB) for low-
cost affordable housing projects as a permissible end-use under the approval route. Now not
Jan-12 Jan-13
only, developers and builders can avail ECB for low-cost affordable housing projects, but Housing
Finance Companies (HFCs) and National Housing Board (NHB) can also avail of ECB for financing
REPO RATE 8.50% 7.75%
prospective owners of low-cost affordable housing units.
REVERSE REPO RATE 7.50% 6.75%
• The premium residential markets in India have shown an upward trend, with capital values
CRR 5.50% 4.00% increasing in the range of 5 to 10% QoQ. Notwithstanding the current economic difficulties, the
mid-segment residential market will continue to remain active in markets like Bangalore, Pune,
INFLATION 6.89% 6.95% Chennai and NOIDA due to their favourable affordability quotient. Meanwhile, markets like those
1 in Mumbai, Delhi and Gurgaon will continue to fetch premium value in the luxury segment.
Home Loan Rate 11.00% 10.00%
Return on Alternative Investments
Jan-12 Jan-13 YoY % ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Change
12.0
Gold 27,428 30,714 11.98% 11.0
10.0
SILVER 51,500 58,443 13.48%
9.0
2
Fixed Deposit 9.25% 8.50% -8.11% 8.0
EQUITY 16,189 19,818 22.42% 7.0
In Percentage
6.0
3
REALTY INDEX 1,574 2,245 42.63% 5.0
4.0
3.0
1
SBI Home Loan Rate for Loan upto INR 30 Lakhs 2.0
2
SBI Fixed Deposit rate for a period of more than one year and amount 1.0
below INR 1 Crore
3
Realty Index is a free float weighted index, comprised of real estate 0.0
development companies in the BSE-500 Index.
Jun ‘08
Mar’ 08
May’08
Jul‘08
Sep’08
Nov ‘08
Jan ‘09
Mar ‘09
May‘09
Jul‘09
Sep ‘09
Nov‘09
Jan‘10
Mar‘10
May ‘10
Jul‘10
Sep‘10
Nov‘10
Jan ‘11
Mar ‘11
May‘11
Jul ‘11
Sep ‘11
Nov ‘11
Jan ‘12
Mar ‘12
May‘12
Jul ‘12
Sep ‘12
Nov ‘12
Jan ‘13
-1.0
Repo Rate Reverse Repo Rate Cash Reserve Ratio Wholesale Price Index
Source: Goverment of India, Colliers International India Research
www.colliers.com
3. INDIA | FEB 2013 | residential
MUMBAI AVERAGE CAPITAL VALUE RANGE
80000
• n 4Q 2012, Mumbai’s residential market
I
witnessed an increase in launches of new
70000
premium residential projects in locations like 60000
INR per sq.ft.
Wadala, Andheri and Chembur micro-markets 50000
priced in the range of INR 9,700 to 26,500 per 40000
sq ft.
30000
• Demand for residential properties from 20000
investors as well as end-users picked up 10000
this quarter due to the long festive season.
Khar
Malabar Hill, Altamount
Road, Carmichael Road
Breach Candy, Napeansea
Road, Peddar Road
Colaba, Cuffe Parade
Worli
Prabhadevi
Bandra
Santacruz
Juhu
Andheri
Powai
However, construction activities remained
slow resulting in no major new supply during
the surveyed quarter.
MumBAI • Capital values for prime residential properties AVERAGE RENTAL VALUE
increased modestly across the city in the Malabar Hill, Altamount
CITY OFFICE BAROMETER Road, Carmichael Road
Breach Candy, Napeansea
range of 1-3% QoQ. However locations such
200
Road, Peddar Road
Powai
4Q 2012 1Q 2013 as Worli, Khar, Santacruz, Andheri and Powai 150
Capital Value remained stable due to the large supply. Andheri
100
Colaba, Cuffe Parade
INR per sq.ft. per month
50
Rental Value • Rental values of premium residential properties
remained stable in almost all of the micro-
0
New Project Worli
markets, except Bandra and Khar, where a
Juhu
Construction Pace marginal increase was noticed in rents.
Santacruz Prabhadevi
INVESTMENT OPPOURTUNITIES • The State Government of Maharashtra
approved a new policy for Special Township Khar Bandra
Micro Market Ongoing Price (P.S.F)
projects spread across 100 acres or more.
Thane-Kalyan 4,000 - 8,000 The new policy mandates that such projects
reserve 25% of the land for economic AVERAGE CAPITAL VALUE TRENDS
Navi Mumbai 3,500 - 7,500
activities and 20% for Economically Weaker 75000
Forecast
Virar- Boisar 3,000 - 6,000 Sections (EWS). Also it has increased the
60000
Note: Ongoing Price (P.S.F): Indicative asking price for premium residential properties
ready reckoner rates by 18-20% across the
per sq.ft. city. 55000
45000
• Colliers View: The primary sales market
INR Per sq.ft.
in Mumbai picked up during the last quarter. 35000
A significant number of this demand came 25000
from end users due to attractive price points
15000
however, investors activity was overall limited
due to longer exit periods. Secondary sales 5000
1Q2013F
3Q2013F
3Q2008
3Q2009
3Q2010
3Q2011
3Q2012
1Q2009
1Q2010
1Q2011
1Q2008
1Q2012
market remained curbed due to high price
points. We anticipate, increased activity in
primary sales market in the coming quarters
Breach Candy, Khar Colaba, Andheri
Napeansea Road, Cuffe Parade
Peddar Road Prabhadevi Bandra Worli
with numerous new launches in both luxury Powai Juhu Malabar Hill, Santacruz
Altamount Road, Carmichael Road
and mid housing segment in the 2/3 BHK Note:
Average Capital/Rental Value Range: Indicative asking price for premium
typology. residential properties on per sq.ft. basis.
KEY NEW PROJECTS
Project Name Location Developer Name Tentative Possession* Rate (Per Sq.ft.)**
Elisium Wadala Lodha Group 4Q 2017 16,900
Elina Saki Naka Runwal Group 4Q 2014 9,750
Proxima Andheri Kurla Road The Dudhwala Group 4Q 2016 11,750
Serenity Chembur Godrej Properties 4Q 2015 26,400
Note: * As mentioned by developer
** Base selling price as quoted by developer
Colliers International | p. 3
4. INDIA | FEB 2013 | residential
delhI AVERAGE CAPITAL VALUE RANGE
115000
• During 4Q 2012, limited supply was added to
the city’s premium residential inventory; only
100000
few small-scale redevelopment residential 85000
INR per sq.ft.
projects were ready for possession in 70000
locations such as Vasant Vihar, Anand Niketan 55000
and Shanti Niketan. 40000
• In 4Q 2012, capital values for premium
25000
residential properties remained stable in all of 10000
Panchashila, Anandlok,
Niti Bagh, SDA
Chanakya Puri
Friends Colony,
Maharani Bagh
Vasant Vihar
Shanti Niketan,
Westend
Anand Niketan,
Sunder Nagar
Greater Kailash
I & II, South
Extension
Golf Links, Jor Bagh,
Prithviraj Road,
Aurangzeb Road
the micro-markets. Rental values for premium
residential properties appreciated by 4% QoQ
in the Prithviraj Road, Aurangzeb Road, Golf
Links, Jor Bagh and Sunder Nagar micro-
delhi markets. However, rents in micro-markets like AVERAGE RENTAL VALUE
Anand Niketan, Vasant Vihar, Friends Colony, Prithviraj Road,
CITY OFFICE BAROMETER Maharani Bagh, Panchashila, Anandlok, Niti
Aurangzeb Road
200
Anand Niketan,
4Q 2012 1Q 2013 Bagh and SDA declined in the range of 2-4% Vasant Vihar 160 Chanakya Puri
QoQ. 120
Capital Value 80
INR per sq.ft. per month
• The Urban Development Ministry has asked
40
Rental Value Golf Links, Jor Bagh,
Greater Kailash 0
the DDA (Delhi Development Authority) I & II, South
Extension
Sunder Nagar
New Project
to increase the FAR (Floor Area Ratio) for
Construction Pace the EWS projects from 200 to 400. This
measure has been proposed with an aim to Shanti Niketan,
reduce the affordable housing shortage in the
Friends Colony,
Westend
Maharani Bagh
capital; especially in the EWS segment. In this Panchashila, Anandlok,
Niti Bagh, SDA
quarter, the Delhi State Government has also
revised the minimum circle rates in Category
AVERAGE CAPITAL VALUE TRENDS
A colonies by 200%, Category B by 50%,
Categories C, D, and E by 25%, Categories F 100000
Forecast
and G by 25% and Category H by 15%. The 90000
increase in the circle rate will help to increase 80000
transparency in the market by reducing the 70000
gap between the circle rate and the market 60000
INR Per sq.ft.
value. 50000
40000
30000
• Colliers View: The new master plan
20000
for Delhi will facilitate the creation of new
10000
sub-cities within Delhi by unlocking around
0
60,000 hectares of land for development. The
1Q2009
3Q2012
1Q2011
3Q2008
1Q2010
3Q2010
1Q2012
3Q2011
1Q2013F
3Q2013F
3Q2009
1Q2008
increase in FAR (Floor Area Ratio) will help to
Golf Links, Jor Bagh, Sunder Nagar Prithviraj Road, Aurangzeb Road
boost residential real estate activity primarily Chanakya Puri Shanti Niketan, Westend
in the EWS and LIG sections. Panchashila, Anandlok, Niti Bagh, SDA Friends Colony, Maharani Bagh
Greater Kailash I & II, South Extension Anand Niketan, Vasant Vihar
Note:
Average Capital/Rental Value Range: Indicative asking price for premium
residential properties on per sq.ft. basis.
KEY ONGOING PROJECTS
Project Name Location Developer Name Tentative Possession* Rate (Per Sq.ft.)**
Capital Greens Shivaji Marg DLF Ltd. 2Q 2015 14,000
Castewood Okhla Indiabulls Ltd. 4Q 2013 12,800
Kings Court Greater Kailash - II DLF Ltd. 1Q 2015 36,000
Queens Court Greater Kailash- II DLF Ltd. 1Q 2015 36,000
Winter Hills Dwaraka Morh Umang Realtech 4Q 2013 8,750
Note: * As mentioned by developer
** Base selling price as quoted by developer
p. 4 | Colliers International
5. INDIA | FEB 2013 | residential
GURGAON AVERAGE CAPITAL VALUE RANGE
40000
• During 4Q 2012, a number of premium
35000
projects/ parts of projects were launched
in Gurgaon. Most of these projects were 30000
INR per sq.ft.
launched in the price rangeof INR 5,500 to 20000
10,000 per sqft in 3/4 BHK typology. Dwarka 15000
Expressway remained the most active
10000
market; other upcoming residential locations,
like Sohna and Golf Course Extension Road, 5000
witnessed limited new launches. 0
Golf Course Road
Sohna Road & Ext
DLF Phase I
Sushant Lok
NH - 8
• Healthy demand was noticed during the
surveyed quarter, and newly-launched
projects witnessed high absorption despite
an increased investment horizon. But most AVERAGE RENTAL VALUE
Gurgaon
of this demand was investor driven and the
CITY OFFICE BAROMETER end-users kept themselves at bay due to Golf Course Road
80
limited options in mid-segment housing and
4Q 2012 1Q 2013 60
unaffordable prices.
40
Capital Value
INR per sq.ft. per month
• Construction activities remain healthy, NH - 8
20
Sohna Road & Ext
Rental Value
resulting in the completion of numerous 0
New Project residential projects like “Tata Raisina” by
Tata Group and “Palm Drive” by Emaar MGF,
Construction Pace
both on Golf Course Extension Road; and “La
Lagoon” and “Verandas” by Salcon Group
INVESTMENT OPPOURTUNITIES both on Golf Course Road. Sushant Lok DLF Phase I
Micro Market Ongoing Price (P.S.F)
• Capital values in the secondary sales market
Golf Course
7,500 - 8,500 witnessed marginal appreciation in the range AVERAGE CAPITAL VALUE TRENDS
Extension Road
of 2 to 5% QoQ in locations like DLF Phase 18000
Sohna Extension 5,000 - 6,500 I, Sushant Lok, NH8, etc. Eging locations Forecast
16000
Pataudi Road 4,500 - 5,500 like Dwarka Expressway, New Gurgaon,
14000
Pataudi Road, Golf Course Extension Road,
New Gurgaon 3,500 - 4,500 12000
etc. observed an increase in the range of 5
10000
Note: Ongoing Price (P.S.F): Indicative asking price for premium residential properties to 10% QoQ.
INR Per sq.ft.
per sq.ft. 8000
• Colliers View: The Gurgaon residential 6000
market witnessed an increase in resale 4000
inventory stock. End-users activity remained 2000
restricted, this is primarily due to an increase 0
4Q2008
2Q2009
3Q2009
4Q2009
2Q2010
2Q2011
2Q2012
1Q2013F
2Q2013F
3Q2013F
4Q2013F
4Q2010
4Q2012
3Q2008
3Q2010
3Q2011
3Q2012
1Q2009
1Q2010
1Q2010
1Q2011
1Q2012
4Q2011
in prices and less options available for mid-
segment housing. In the near term, micro- NH-8 Sohna Road & Ext
markets such as Dwarka Expressway, Pataudi Golf Course Road Sushant Lok
Road, Sohna Road and Golf Course Extension DLF Phase I
Road will continue to witness interest from Note:
investors; however, prices are expected to Average Capital/Rental Value Range: Indicative asking price for premium
residential properties on per sq.ft. basis.
remain more or less at the same levels.
KEY NEW PROJECTS
Project Name Location Developer Name Tentative Possession* Rate (Per Sq.ft.)**
Imperial Garden Sector 102 Emaar MGF 4Q 2016 6,500
Kalistaa Sector 84 Spaze Towers 4Q 2015 7,080
Michael Schumacher World Tower Sector 109 Homestead 4Q 2016 12,000 - 14,000
Oyster Grande Sector 102 Adani Group 4Q 2016 5,500
Triumph Sector 104 ATS Group 4Q 2016 7,500
Woodshire Sector 107 M3M Group 4Q 2016 6,250
Note: * As mentioned by developer
** Base selling price as quoted by developer
Colliers International | p. 5