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Residential Property
Market Overview
INDIA
QUARTERLY UPDATE | FEBRUARY | 2013




Accelerating success.
INDIA | FEB 2013 | residential


    Research & forecast report
    SYDNEY CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT

    research & forecast Report
    India RESIDENTIAL market




                                                                          MACRO ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

                                                                          •	GDP growth in the third quarter (July to September) of 2012 was 5.3%, contracted marginally
                                                                            from the previous quarter’s 5.5%.

                                                                          •	The headline inflation based on the whole sale price index edged down to 6.95% for the month
                                                                            of January 2013, as compared to 7.18% in December 2012.

                                                                          •	The Reserve Bank of India reduced the repo and reverse repo rates by 25 basis points from
                                                                            8.00% to 7.75% in Jan 2013 to induce immediate liquidity in the market. Following suit, a few
                                                                            banks such as SBI and HDFC marginally reduced their home loan rates by 5 to 10 basis points.

     ECONOMIC BAROMETER                                                   •	This quarter, the reserve bank of India allowed Electronic Commercial Borrowing (ECB) for low-
                                                                            cost affordable housing projects as a permissible end-use under the approval route. Now not
                                           Jan-12            Jan-13
                                                                            only, developers and builders can avail ECB for low-cost affordable housing projects, but Housing
                                                                            Finance Companies (HFCs) and National Housing Board (NHB) can also avail of ECB for financing
                       REPO RATE            8.50%             7.75%
                                                                            prospective owners of low-cost affordable housing units.
          REVERSE REPO RATE                 7.50%            6.75%
                                                                          •	The premium residential markets in India have shown an upward trend, with capital values
                                CRR         5.50%            4.00%          increasing in the range of 5 to 10% QoQ. Notwithstanding the current economic difficulties, the
                                                                            mid-segment residential market will continue to remain active in markets like Bangalore, Pune,
                        INFLATION           6.89%             6.95%         Chennai and NOIDA due to their favourable affordability quotient. Meanwhile, markets like those
                                     1                                      in Mumbai, Delhi and Gurgaon will continue to fetch premium value in the luxury segment.
              Home Loan Rate               11.00%            10.00%




    Return on Alternative Investments

                              Jan-12          Jan-13          YoY %                 ECONOMIC INDICATORS
                                                              Change
                                                                                          12.0

                 Gold         27,428          30,714          11.98%                      11.0

                                                                                          10.0
               SILVER         51,500          58,443          13.48%
                                                                                           9.0
                        2
     Fixed Deposit            9.25%           8.50%           -8.11%                      8.0


               EQUITY          16,189          19,818         22.42%                       7.0
                                                                          In Percentage




                                                                                          6.0
                        3
     REALTY INDEX              1,574           2,245          42.63%                      5.0

                                                                                          4.0

                                                                                           3.0

1
  SBI Home Loan Rate for Loan upto INR 30 Lakhs                                           2.0
2
  SBI Fixed Deposit rate for a period of more than one year and amount                     1.0
   below INR 1 Crore
3
  Realty Index is a free float weighted index, comprised of real estate                   0.0
 development companies in the BSE-500 Index.
                                                                                                 Jun ‘08

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                                                                                          -1.0


                                                                                                                                                                    Repo Rate                               Reverse Repo Rate                           Cash Reserve Ratio                             Wholesale Price Index



                                                                          Source: Goverment of India, Colliers International India Research




    www.colliers.com
INDIA | FEB 2013 | residential


                                                                                            MUMBAI                                                                                                                AVERAGE CAPITAL VALUE RANGE
                                                                                                                                                                             80000

                                                                                            •		n 4Q 2012, Mumbai’s residential market
                                                                                              I
                                                                                              witnessed an increase in launches of new
                                                                                                                                                                             70000



                                                                                              premium residential projects in locations like                                 60000




                                                                                                                                                INR per sq.ft.
                                                                                              Wadala, Andheri and Chembur micro-markets                                      50000

                                                                                              priced in the range of INR 9,700 to 26,500 per                                 40000

                                                                                              sq ft.
                                                                                                                                                                             30000


                                                                                            •	Demand for residential properties from                                         20000

                                                                                              investors as well as end-users picked up                                       10000
                                                                                              this quarter due to the long festive season.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Khar
                                                                                                                                                                                     Malabar Hill, Altamount
                                                                                                                                                                                     Road, Carmichael Road

                                                                                                                                                                                                                Breach Candy, Napeansea
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Road, Peddar Road


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Colaba, Cuffe Parade


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Worli


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Prabhadevi


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Bandra




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Santacruz


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Juhu


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Andheri


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Powai
                                                                                              However, construction activities remained
                                                                                              slow resulting in no major new supply during
                                                                                              the surveyed quarter.
                                                                             MumBAI         •	Capital values for prime residential properties                                                                                               AVERAGE RENTAL VALUE
                                                                                              increased modestly across the city in the                                                                                                                                                    Malabar Hill, Altamount

CITY OFFICE BAROMETER                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Road, Carmichael Road
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Breach Candy, Napeansea
                                                                                              range of 1-3% QoQ. However locations such
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Road, Peddar Road
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Powai
                                     4Q 2012                         1Q 2013                  as Worli, Khar, Santacruz, Andheri and Powai                                                                                                                                                                       150



Capital Value                                                                                 remained stable due to the large supply.                                                               Andheri
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 100
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Colaba, Cuffe Parade




                                                                                                                                                  INR per sq.ft. per month
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  50
Rental Value                                                                                •	Rental values of premium residential properties
                                                                                              remained stable in almost all of the micro-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     0

New Project                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Worli
                                                                                              markets, except Bandra and Khar, where a
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Juhu


Construction Pace                                                                             marginal increase was noticed in rents.
                                                                                                                                                                                                               Santacruz                                                                                                                                                Prabhadevi
INVESTMENT OPPOURTUNITIES                                                                   •	The State Government of Maharashtra
                                                                                              approved a new policy for Special Township                                                                                                                                                   Khar                                         Bandra
Micro Market                                    Ongoing Price (P.S.F)
                                                                                              projects spread across 100 acres or more.
Thane-Kalyan                                           4,000 - 8,000                          The new policy mandates that such projects
                                                                                              reserve 25% of the land for economic                                                                             AVERAGE CAPITAL VALUE TRENDS
Navi Mumbai                                            3,500 - 7,500
                                                                                              activities and 20% for Economically Weaker                                     75000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Forecast
Virar- Boisar                                          3,000 - 6,000                          Sections (EWS). Also it has increased the
                                                                                                                                                                             60000

Note: Ongoing Price (P.S.F): Indicative asking price for premium residential properties
                                                                                              ready reckoner rates by 18-20% across the
per sq.ft.                                                                                    city.                                                                          55000



                                                                                                                                                                             45000
                                                                                            •	Colliers View: The primary sales market
                                                                                                                                                  INR Per sq.ft.




                                                                                              in Mumbai picked up during the last quarter.                                   35000


                                                                                              A significant number of this demand came                                       25000

                                                                                              from end users due to attractive price points
                                                                                                                                                                             15000
                                                                                              however, investors activity was overall limited
                                                                                              due to longer exit periods. Secondary sales                                     5000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     1Q2013F


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     3Q2013F
                                                                                                                                                                                                               3Q2008




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          3Q2009




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 3Q2010




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            3Q2011




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        3Q2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          1Q2009




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           1Q2010




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               1Q2011
                                                                                                                                                                                     1Q2008




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             1Q2012




                                                                                              market remained curbed due to high price
                                                                                              points. We anticipate, increased activity in
                                                                                              primary sales market in the coming quarters
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Breach Candy,                                                            Khar                                         Colaba,                                 Andheri
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Napeansea Road,                                                                                                       Cuffe Parade
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Peddar Road                                                              Prabhadevi                                   Bandra                                  Worli

                                                                                              with numerous new launches in both luxury                                                                                     Powai                                                                       Juhu                                         Malabar Hill,           Santacruz
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Altamount Road, Carmichael Road
                                                                                              and mid housing segment in the 2/3 BHK                                                 Note:
                                                                                                                                                                                     Average Capital/Rental Value Range: Indicative asking price for premium
                                                                                              typology.                                                                              residential properties on per sq.ft. basis.



  KEY NEW PROJECTS

  Project Name                                                                  Location                         Developer Name          Tentative Possession*                                                                                                                                                               Rate (Per Sq.ft.)**

  Elisium                                                                       Wadala                           Lodha Group                                                    4Q 2017                                                                                                                                                                16,900

  Elina                                                                         Saki Naka                        Runwal Group                                                   4Q 2014                                                                                                                                                                  9,750

  Proxima                                                                       Andheri Kurla Road               The Dudhwala Group                                             4Q 2016                                                                                                                                                                 11,750

  Serenity                                                                      Chembur                          Godrej Properties                                              4Q 2015                                                                                                                                                               26,400




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Note: * As mentioned by developer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        ** Base selling price as quoted by developer


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Colliers International |                                                                                                              p. 3
INDIA | FEB 2013 | residential


                                                delhI                                                                                                                AVERAGE CAPITAL VALUE RANGE
                                                                                                                                   115000

                                                •		During 4Q 2012, limited supply was added to
                                                  the city’s premium residential inventory; only
                                                                                                                             100000



                                                  few small-scale redevelopment residential                                        85000




                                                                                                      INR per sq.ft.
                                                  projects were ready for possession in                                            70000


                                                  locations such as Vasant Vihar, Anand Niketan                                    55000

                                                  and Shanti Niketan.                                                              40000



                                                •	In 4Q 2012, capital values for premium
                                                                                                                                   25000



                                                  residential properties remained stable in all of                                 10000




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Panchashila, Anandlok,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Niti Bagh, SDA
                                                                                                                                                                             Chanakya Puri




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Friends Colony,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Maharani Bagh




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Vasant Vihar
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Shanti Niketan,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Westend




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Anand Niketan,
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Sunder Nagar




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Greater Kailash
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  I & II, South
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Extension
                                                                                                                                                                                               Golf Links, Jor Bagh,
                                                                                                                                                 Prithviraj Road,
                                                                                                                                                Aurangzeb Road
                                                  the micro-markets. Rental values for premium
                                                  residential properties appreciated by 4% QoQ
                                                  in the Prithviraj Road, Aurangzeb Road, Golf
                                                  Links, Jor Bagh and Sunder Nagar micro-
                                      delhi       markets. However, rents in micro-markets like                                                                                         AVERAGE RENTAL VALUE
                                                  Anand Niketan, Vasant Vihar, Friends Colony,                                                                                                                                   Prithviraj Road,
CITY OFFICE BAROMETER                             Maharani Bagh, Panchashila, Anandlok, Niti
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Aurangzeb Road
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     200
                                                                                                                                                           Anand Niketan,

                    4Q 2012     1Q 2013           Bagh and SDA declined in the range of 2-4%                                                                 Vasant Vihar                                                             160                                                                    Chanakya Puri


                                                  QoQ.                                                                                                                                                                                120

Capital Value                                                                                                                                                                                                                            80




                                                                                                        INR per sq.ft. per month
                                                •	The Urban Development Ministry has asked
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        40
Rental Value                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Golf Links, Jor Bagh,
                                                                                                                                        Greater Kailash                                                                                     0
                                                  the DDA (Delhi Development Authority)                                                    I & II, South
                                                                                                                                             Extension
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Sunder Nagar

New Project
                                                  to increase the FAR (Floor Area Ratio) for
Construction Pace                                 the EWS projects from 200 to 400. This
                                                  measure has been proposed with an aim to                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Shanti Niketan,
                                                  reduce the affordable housing shortage in the
                                                                                                                                                                     Friends Colony,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Westend
                                                                                                                                                                     Maharani Bagh

                                                  capital; especially in the EWS segment. In this                                                                                                                      Panchashila, Anandlok,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Niti Bagh, SDA
                                                  quarter, the Delhi State Government has also
                                                  revised the minimum circle rates in Category
                                                                                                                                                                AVERAGE CAPITAL VALUE TRENDS
                                                  A colonies by 200%, Category B by 50%,
                                                  Categories C, D, and E by 25%, Categories F                               100000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Forecast

                                                  and G by 25% and Category H by 15%. The                                          90000


                                                  increase in the circle rate will help to increase                                80000


                                                  transparency in the market by reducing the                                       70000


                                                  gap between the circle rate and the market                                       60000
                                                                                                        INR Per sq.ft.




                                                  value.                                                                           50000

                                                                                                                                   40000

                                                                                                                                   30000
                                                •	Colliers View: The new master plan
                                                                                                                            20000
                                                  for Delhi will facilitate the creation of new
                                                                                                                                   10000
                                                  sub-cities within Delhi by unlocking around
                                                                                                                                       0
                                                  60,000 hectares of land for development. The
                                                                                                                                                                                  1Q2009




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               3Q2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    1Q2011
                                                                                                                                                                    3Q2008




                                                                                                                                                                                                                       1Q2010


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     3Q2010




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 1Q2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                3Q2011




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            1Q2013F


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           3Q2013F
                                                                                                                                                                                             3Q2009
                                                                                                                                            1Q2008




                                                  increase in FAR (Floor Area Ratio) will help to
                                                                                                                                                                         Golf Links, Jor Bagh, Sunder Nagar                                                                              Prithviraj Road, Aurangzeb Road
                                                  boost residential real estate activity primarily                                                                       Chanakya Puri                                                                                                   Shanti Niketan, Westend


                                                  in the EWS and LIG sections. 		                                                                                        Panchashila, Anandlok, Niti Bagh, SDA                                                                           Friends Colony, Maharani Bagh

                                                                                                                                                                         Greater Kailash I & II, South Extension                                                                         Anand Niketan, Vasant Vihar


                                                                                                                                            Note:
                                                                                                                                            Average Capital/Rental Value Range: Indicative asking price for premium
                                                                                                                                            residential properties on per sq.ft. basis.



 KEY ONGOING PROJECTS

 Project Name                        Location                         Developer Name           Tentative Possession*                                                                                                                                Rate (Per Sq.ft.)**

 Capital Greens                      Shivaji Marg                     DLF Ltd.                                                        2Q 2015                                                                                                                                              14,000

 Castewood                           Okhla                            Indiabulls Ltd.                                                 4Q 2013                                                                                                                                              12,800

 Kings Court                         Greater Kailash - II             DLF Ltd.                                                        1Q 2015                                                                                                                                             36,000

 Queens Court                        Greater Kailash- II              DLF Ltd.                                                        1Q 2015                                                                                                                                             36,000

 Winter Hills                        Dwaraka Morh                     Umang Realtech                                                  4Q 2013                                                                                                                                                 8,750



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Note: * As mentioned by developer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             ** Base selling price as quoted by developer


 p. 4    | Colliers International
INDIA | FEB 2013 | residential


                                                                                            GURGAON                                                                                                      AVERAGE CAPITAL VALUE RANGE
                                                                                                                                                                              40000

                                                                                            •	During 4Q 2012, a number of premium
                                                                                                                                                                              35000
                                                                                              projects/ parts of projects were launched
                                                                                              in Gurgaon. Most of these projects were                                         30000




                                                                                                                                                 INR per sq.ft.
                                                                                              launched in the price rangeof INR 5,500 to                                      20000


                                                                                              10,000 per sqft in 3/4 BHK typology. Dwarka                                     15000

                                                                                              Expressway remained the most active
                                                                                                                                                                              10000
                                                                                              market; other upcoming residential locations,
                                                                                              like Sohna and Golf Course Extension Road,                                       5000


                                                                                              witnessed limited new launches.                                                     0




                                                                                                                                                                                                        Golf Course Road




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Sohna Road & Ext




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                DLF Phase I




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Sushant Lok




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      NH - 8
                                                                                            •	Healthy demand was noticed during the
                                                                                              surveyed quarter, and newly-launched
                                                                                              projects witnessed high absorption despite
                                                                                              an increased investment horizon. But most                                                                                      AVERAGE RENTAL VALUE
                                                                          Gurgaon
                                                                                              of this demand was investor driven and the
CITY OFFICE BAROMETER                                                                         end-users kept themselves at bay due to                                                                                                                               Golf Course Road
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          80

                                                                                              limited options in mid-segment housing and
                                     4Q 2012                         1Q 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                    60
                                                                                              unaffordable prices.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                40
Capital Value




                                                                                                                                                   INR per sq.ft. per month
                                                                                            •	Construction activities remain healthy,                                                            NH - 8
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Sohna Road & Ext

Rental Value
                                                                                              resulting in the completion of numerous                                                                                                                                             0

New Project                                                                                   residential projects like “Tata Raisina” by
                                                                                              Tata Group and “Palm Drive” by Emaar MGF,
Construction Pace
                                                                                              both on Golf Course Extension Road; and “La
                                                                                              Lagoon” and “Verandas” by Salcon Group
INVESTMENT OPPOURTUNITIES                                                                     both on Golf Course Road.                                                                                                        Sushant Lok                                                                                      DLF Phase I


Micro Market                                      Ongoing Price (P.S.F)
                                                                                            •	Capital values in the secondary sales market
Golf Course
                                                         7,500 - 8,500                        witnessed marginal appreciation in the range                                                              AVERAGE CAPITAL VALUE TRENDS
Extension Road
                                                                                              of 2 to 5% QoQ in locations like DLF Phase                                      18000
Sohna Extension                                          5,000 - 6,500                        I, Sushant Lok, NH8, etc. Eging locations                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Forecast
                                                                                                                                                                              16000

Pataudi Road                                             4,500 - 5,500                        like Dwarka Expressway, New Gurgaon,
                                                                                                                                                                              14000
                                                                                              Pataudi Road, Golf Course Extension Road,
New Gurgaon                                              3,500 - 4,500                                                                                                        12000
                                                                                              etc. observed an increase in the range of 5
                                                                                                                                                                              10000
Note: Ongoing Price (P.S.F): Indicative asking price for premium residential properties       to 10% QoQ.
                                                                                                                                                   INR Per sq.ft.




per sq.ft.                                                                                                                                                                    8000


                                                                                            •	Colliers View: The Gurgaon residential                                          6000


                                                                                              market witnessed an increase in resale                                           4000


                                                                                              inventory stock. End-users activity remained                                    2000

                                                                                              restricted, this is primarily due to an increase                                   0
                                                                                                                                                                                               4Q2008


                                                                                                                                                                                                        2Q2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           3Q2009

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    4Q2009




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2Q2010




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2Q2011




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2Q2012




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   1Q2013F
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2Q2013F
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       3Q2013F
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 4Q2013F
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      4Q2010




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          4Q2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      3Q2008




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             3Q2010




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       3Q2011




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 3Q2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                        1Q2009




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             1Q2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           1Q2010




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               1Q2011




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         1Q2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                4Q2011




                                                                                              in prices and less options available for mid-
                                                                                              segment housing. In the near term, micro-                                                                                        NH-8                                                                                                                Sohna Road & Ext

                                                                                              markets such as Dwarka Expressway, Pataudi                                                                                      Golf Course Road                                                                                                     Sushant Lok

                                                                                              Road, Sohna Road and Golf Course Extension                                                                                      DLF Phase I



                                                                                              Road will continue to witness interest from                                             Note:
                                                                                              investors; however, prices are expected to                                              Average Capital/Rental Value Range: Indicative asking price for premium
                                                                                                                                                                                      residential properties on per sq.ft. basis.
                                                                                              remain more or less at the same levels.	
                                                                                              		
  KEY NEW PROJECTS

  Project Name                                                                  Location                         Developer Name           Tentative Possession*                                                                                                                                Rate (Per Sq.ft.)**

  Imperial Garden                                                               Sector 102                       Emaar MGF                                                      4Q 2016                                                                                                                                                  6,500

  Kalistaa                                                                      Sector 84                        Spaze Towers                                                   4Q 2015                                                                                                                                                  7,080

  Michael Schumacher World Tower                                                Sector 109                       Homestead                                                      4Q 2016                                                                                                                           12,000 - 14,000

  Oyster Grande                                                                 Sector 102                       Adani Group                                                    4Q 2016                                                                                                                                                  5,500

  Triumph                                                                       Sector 104                       ATS Group                                                      4Q 2016                                                                                                                                                  7,500

  Woodshire                                                                     Sector 107                       M3M Group                                                      4Q 2016                                                                                                                                                  6,250

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Note: * As mentioned by developer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               ** Base selling price as quoted by developer


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Colliers International |                                                                                                                                           p. 5
India residential property market overview feb 2013
India residential property market overview feb 2013
India residential property market overview feb 2013
India residential property market overview feb 2013
India residential property market overview feb 2013
India residential property market overview feb 2013
India residential property market overview feb 2013

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India residential property market overview feb 2013

  • 1. Residential Property Market Overview INDIA QUARTERLY UPDATE | FEBRUARY | 2013 Accelerating success.
  • 2. INDIA | FEB 2013 | residential Research & forecast report SYDNEY CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT research & forecast Report India RESIDENTIAL market MACRO ECONOMIC OVERVIEW • GDP growth in the third quarter (July to September) of 2012 was 5.3%, contracted marginally from the previous quarter’s 5.5%. • The headline inflation based on the whole sale price index edged down to 6.95% for the month of January 2013, as compared to 7.18% in December 2012. • The Reserve Bank of India reduced the repo and reverse repo rates by 25 basis points from 8.00% to 7.75% in Jan 2013 to induce immediate liquidity in the market. Following suit, a few banks such as SBI and HDFC marginally reduced their home loan rates by 5 to 10 basis points. ECONOMIC BAROMETER • This quarter, the reserve bank of India allowed Electronic Commercial Borrowing (ECB) for low- cost affordable housing projects as a permissible end-use under the approval route. Now not Jan-12 Jan-13 only, developers and builders can avail ECB for low-cost affordable housing projects, but Housing Finance Companies (HFCs) and National Housing Board (NHB) can also avail of ECB for financing REPO RATE 8.50% 7.75% prospective owners of low-cost affordable housing units. REVERSE REPO RATE 7.50% 6.75% • The premium residential markets in India have shown an upward trend, with capital values CRR 5.50% 4.00% increasing in the range of 5 to 10% QoQ. Notwithstanding the current economic difficulties, the mid-segment residential market will continue to remain active in markets like Bangalore, Pune, INFLATION 6.89% 6.95% Chennai and NOIDA due to their favourable affordability quotient. Meanwhile, markets like those 1 in Mumbai, Delhi and Gurgaon will continue to fetch premium value in the luxury segment. Home Loan Rate 11.00% 10.00% Return on Alternative Investments Jan-12 Jan-13 YoY % ECONOMIC INDICATORS Change 12.0 Gold 27,428 30,714 11.98% 11.0 10.0 SILVER 51,500 58,443 13.48% 9.0 2 Fixed Deposit 9.25% 8.50% -8.11% 8.0 EQUITY 16,189 19,818 22.42% 7.0 In Percentage 6.0 3 REALTY INDEX 1,574 2,245 42.63% 5.0 4.0 3.0 1 SBI Home Loan Rate for Loan upto INR 30 Lakhs 2.0 2 SBI Fixed Deposit rate for a period of more than one year and amount 1.0 below INR 1 Crore 3 Realty Index is a free float weighted index, comprised of real estate 0.0 development companies in the BSE-500 Index. Jun ‘08 Mar’ 08 May’08 Jul‘08 Sep’08 Nov ‘08 Jan ‘09 Mar ‘09 May‘09 Jul‘09 Sep ‘09 Nov‘09 Jan‘10 Mar‘10 May ‘10 Jul‘10 Sep‘10 Nov‘10 Jan ‘11 Mar ‘11 May‘11 Jul ‘11 Sep ‘11 Nov ‘11 Jan ‘12 Mar ‘12 May‘12 Jul ‘12 Sep ‘12 Nov ‘12 Jan ‘13 -1.0 Repo Rate Reverse Repo Rate Cash Reserve Ratio Wholesale Price Index Source: Goverment of India, Colliers International India Research www.colliers.com
  • 3. INDIA | FEB 2013 | residential MUMBAI AVERAGE CAPITAL VALUE RANGE 80000 • n 4Q 2012, Mumbai’s residential market I witnessed an increase in launches of new 70000 premium residential projects in locations like 60000 INR per sq.ft. Wadala, Andheri and Chembur micro-markets 50000 priced in the range of INR 9,700 to 26,500 per 40000 sq ft. 30000 • Demand for residential properties from 20000 investors as well as end-users picked up 10000 this quarter due to the long festive season. Khar Malabar Hill, Altamount Road, Carmichael Road Breach Candy, Napeansea Road, Peddar Road Colaba, Cuffe Parade Worli Prabhadevi Bandra Santacruz Juhu Andheri Powai However, construction activities remained slow resulting in no major new supply during the surveyed quarter. MumBAI • Capital values for prime residential properties AVERAGE RENTAL VALUE increased modestly across the city in the Malabar Hill, Altamount CITY OFFICE BAROMETER Road, Carmichael Road Breach Candy, Napeansea range of 1-3% QoQ. However locations such 200 Road, Peddar Road Powai 4Q 2012 1Q 2013 as Worli, Khar, Santacruz, Andheri and Powai 150 Capital Value remained stable due to the large supply. Andheri 100 Colaba, Cuffe Parade INR per sq.ft. per month 50 Rental Value • Rental values of premium residential properties remained stable in almost all of the micro- 0 New Project Worli markets, except Bandra and Khar, where a Juhu Construction Pace marginal increase was noticed in rents. Santacruz Prabhadevi INVESTMENT OPPOURTUNITIES • The State Government of Maharashtra approved a new policy for Special Township Khar Bandra Micro Market Ongoing Price (P.S.F) projects spread across 100 acres or more. Thane-Kalyan 4,000 - 8,000 The new policy mandates that such projects reserve 25% of the land for economic AVERAGE CAPITAL VALUE TRENDS Navi Mumbai 3,500 - 7,500 activities and 20% for Economically Weaker 75000 Forecast Virar- Boisar 3,000 - 6,000 Sections (EWS). Also it has increased the 60000 Note: Ongoing Price (P.S.F): Indicative asking price for premium residential properties ready reckoner rates by 18-20% across the per sq.ft. city. 55000 45000 • Colliers View: The primary sales market INR Per sq.ft. in Mumbai picked up during the last quarter. 35000 A significant number of this demand came 25000 from end users due to attractive price points 15000 however, investors activity was overall limited due to longer exit periods. Secondary sales 5000 1Q2013F 3Q2013F 3Q2008 3Q2009 3Q2010 3Q2011 3Q2012 1Q2009 1Q2010 1Q2011 1Q2008 1Q2012 market remained curbed due to high price points. We anticipate, increased activity in primary sales market in the coming quarters Breach Candy, Khar Colaba, Andheri Napeansea Road, Cuffe Parade Peddar Road Prabhadevi Bandra Worli with numerous new launches in both luxury Powai Juhu Malabar Hill, Santacruz Altamount Road, Carmichael Road and mid housing segment in the 2/3 BHK Note: Average Capital/Rental Value Range: Indicative asking price for premium typology. residential properties on per sq.ft. basis. KEY NEW PROJECTS Project Name Location Developer Name Tentative Possession* Rate (Per Sq.ft.)** Elisium Wadala Lodha Group 4Q 2017 16,900 Elina Saki Naka Runwal Group 4Q 2014 9,750 Proxima Andheri Kurla Road The Dudhwala Group 4Q 2016 11,750 Serenity Chembur Godrej Properties 4Q 2015 26,400 Note: * As mentioned by developer ** Base selling price as quoted by developer Colliers International | p. 3
  • 4. INDIA | FEB 2013 | residential delhI AVERAGE CAPITAL VALUE RANGE 115000 • During 4Q 2012, limited supply was added to the city’s premium residential inventory; only 100000 few small-scale redevelopment residential 85000 INR per sq.ft. projects were ready for possession in 70000 locations such as Vasant Vihar, Anand Niketan 55000 and Shanti Niketan. 40000 • In 4Q 2012, capital values for premium 25000 residential properties remained stable in all of 10000 Panchashila, Anandlok, Niti Bagh, SDA Chanakya Puri Friends Colony, Maharani Bagh Vasant Vihar Shanti Niketan, Westend Anand Niketan, Sunder Nagar Greater Kailash I & II, South Extension Golf Links, Jor Bagh, Prithviraj Road, Aurangzeb Road the micro-markets. Rental values for premium residential properties appreciated by 4% QoQ in the Prithviraj Road, Aurangzeb Road, Golf Links, Jor Bagh and Sunder Nagar micro- delhi markets. However, rents in micro-markets like AVERAGE RENTAL VALUE Anand Niketan, Vasant Vihar, Friends Colony, Prithviraj Road, CITY OFFICE BAROMETER Maharani Bagh, Panchashila, Anandlok, Niti Aurangzeb Road 200 Anand Niketan, 4Q 2012 1Q 2013 Bagh and SDA declined in the range of 2-4% Vasant Vihar 160 Chanakya Puri QoQ. 120 Capital Value 80 INR per sq.ft. per month • The Urban Development Ministry has asked 40 Rental Value Golf Links, Jor Bagh, Greater Kailash 0 the DDA (Delhi Development Authority) I & II, South Extension Sunder Nagar New Project to increase the FAR (Floor Area Ratio) for Construction Pace the EWS projects from 200 to 400. This measure has been proposed with an aim to Shanti Niketan, reduce the affordable housing shortage in the Friends Colony, Westend Maharani Bagh capital; especially in the EWS segment. In this Panchashila, Anandlok, Niti Bagh, SDA quarter, the Delhi State Government has also revised the minimum circle rates in Category AVERAGE CAPITAL VALUE TRENDS A colonies by 200%, Category B by 50%, Categories C, D, and E by 25%, Categories F 100000 Forecast and G by 25% and Category H by 15%. The 90000 increase in the circle rate will help to increase 80000 transparency in the market by reducing the 70000 gap between the circle rate and the market 60000 INR Per sq.ft. value. 50000 40000 30000 • Colliers View: The new master plan 20000 for Delhi will facilitate the creation of new 10000 sub-cities within Delhi by unlocking around 0 60,000 hectares of land for development. The 1Q2009 3Q2012 1Q2011 3Q2008 1Q2010 3Q2010 1Q2012 3Q2011 1Q2013F 3Q2013F 3Q2009 1Q2008 increase in FAR (Floor Area Ratio) will help to Golf Links, Jor Bagh, Sunder Nagar Prithviraj Road, Aurangzeb Road boost residential real estate activity primarily Chanakya Puri Shanti Niketan, Westend in the EWS and LIG sections. Panchashila, Anandlok, Niti Bagh, SDA Friends Colony, Maharani Bagh Greater Kailash I & II, South Extension Anand Niketan, Vasant Vihar Note: Average Capital/Rental Value Range: Indicative asking price for premium residential properties on per sq.ft. basis. KEY ONGOING PROJECTS Project Name Location Developer Name Tentative Possession* Rate (Per Sq.ft.)** Capital Greens Shivaji Marg DLF Ltd. 2Q 2015 14,000 Castewood Okhla Indiabulls Ltd. 4Q 2013 12,800 Kings Court Greater Kailash - II DLF Ltd. 1Q 2015 36,000 Queens Court Greater Kailash- II DLF Ltd. 1Q 2015 36,000 Winter Hills Dwaraka Morh Umang Realtech 4Q 2013 8,750 Note: * As mentioned by developer ** Base selling price as quoted by developer p. 4 | Colliers International
  • 5. INDIA | FEB 2013 | residential GURGAON AVERAGE CAPITAL VALUE RANGE 40000 • During 4Q 2012, a number of premium 35000 projects/ parts of projects were launched in Gurgaon. Most of these projects were 30000 INR per sq.ft. launched in the price rangeof INR 5,500 to 20000 10,000 per sqft in 3/4 BHK typology. Dwarka 15000 Expressway remained the most active 10000 market; other upcoming residential locations, like Sohna and Golf Course Extension Road, 5000 witnessed limited new launches. 0 Golf Course Road Sohna Road & Ext DLF Phase I Sushant Lok NH - 8 • Healthy demand was noticed during the surveyed quarter, and newly-launched projects witnessed high absorption despite an increased investment horizon. But most AVERAGE RENTAL VALUE Gurgaon of this demand was investor driven and the CITY OFFICE BAROMETER end-users kept themselves at bay due to Golf Course Road 80 limited options in mid-segment housing and 4Q 2012 1Q 2013 60 unaffordable prices. 40 Capital Value INR per sq.ft. per month • Construction activities remain healthy, NH - 8 20 Sohna Road & Ext Rental Value resulting in the completion of numerous 0 New Project residential projects like “Tata Raisina” by Tata Group and “Palm Drive” by Emaar MGF, Construction Pace both on Golf Course Extension Road; and “La Lagoon” and “Verandas” by Salcon Group INVESTMENT OPPOURTUNITIES both on Golf Course Road. Sushant Lok DLF Phase I Micro Market Ongoing Price (P.S.F) • Capital values in the secondary sales market Golf Course 7,500 - 8,500 witnessed marginal appreciation in the range AVERAGE CAPITAL VALUE TRENDS Extension Road of 2 to 5% QoQ in locations like DLF Phase 18000 Sohna Extension 5,000 - 6,500 I, Sushant Lok, NH8, etc. Eging locations Forecast 16000 Pataudi Road 4,500 - 5,500 like Dwarka Expressway, New Gurgaon, 14000 Pataudi Road, Golf Course Extension Road, New Gurgaon 3,500 - 4,500 12000 etc. observed an increase in the range of 5 10000 Note: Ongoing Price (P.S.F): Indicative asking price for premium residential properties to 10% QoQ. INR Per sq.ft. per sq.ft. 8000 • Colliers View: The Gurgaon residential 6000 market witnessed an increase in resale 4000 inventory stock. End-users activity remained 2000 restricted, this is primarily due to an increase 0 4Q2008 2Q2009 3Q2009 4Q2009 2Q2010 2Q2011 2Q2012 1Q2013F 2Q2013F 3Q2013F 4Q2013F 4Q2010 4Q2012 3Q2008 3Q2010 3Q2011 3Q2012 1Q2009 1Q2010 1Q2010 1Q2011 1Q2012 4Q2011 in prices and less options available for mid- segment housing. In the near term, micro- NH-8 Sohna Road & Ext markets such as Dwarka Expressway, Pataudi Golf Course Road Sushant Lok Road, Sohna Road and Golf Course Extension DLF Phase I Road will continue to witness interest from Note: investors; however, prices are expected to Average Capital/Rental Value Range: Indicative asking price for premium residential properties on per sq.ft. basis. remain more or less at the same levels. KEY NEW PROJECTS Project Name Location Developer Name Tentative Possession* Rate (Per Sq.ft.)** Imperial Garden Sector 102 Emaar MGF 4Q 2016 6,500 Kalistaa Sector 84 Spaze Towers 4Q 2015 7,080 Michael Schumacher World Tower Sector 109 Homestead 4Q 2016 12,000 - 14,000 Oyster Grande Sector 102 Adani Group 4Q 2016 5,500 Triumph Sector 104 ATS Group 4Q 2016 7,500 Woodshire Sector 107 M3M Group 4Q 2016 6,250 Note: * As mentioned by developer ** Base selling price as quoted by developer Colliers International | p. 5