We anticipate, in the medium terms, cities with lower inventory overhang (such as Bangalore and Mumbai) will witness strengthening in the rental and capital values. This is primarily because of the overall strengthening in business confidence based on the government’s keen resolve to introduce numerous fiscal and economic reforms. RBI has indicated that they would positively review lowering the repo rate in 1Q 2013. This should increase liquidity in the market; and the positive business environment should lead to recovery in the country’s economic growth and increase in demand for commercial and residential real estate.
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2. 4Q 2012 | OFFICE
Research & forecast report
SYDNEY CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
research & forecast Report
India office market
MACRO ECONOMIC OVERVIEW ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Gross Domestic Product at Factor Cost
• GDP growth in the July - September quarter 10.0%
9.0%
of 2012 was 5.3%, contracting marginally 8.0%
from in the last quarter. 7.0%
6.0%
• eadline inflation based on the wholesale
H
5.0%
In Percentage
4.0%
price index inched down to 7.24% for the 3.0%
2.0%
month of November 2012, as compared to 1.0%
7.45% in October 2012. It was 9.46% during 0.0%
Jan - Mar 09
Apr - Jun 09
Jul - Sep 09
Oct - Dec 09
Jan - Mar 10
Apr - Jun 10
Jul - Sep 10
Oct - Dec 10
Jan - Mar 11
Apr - Jun 11
Jul - Sep 11
Oct - Dec 11
Jan - Mar 12
Apr - Jun 12
Jun - Sep 12
the corresponding month of the previous
year.
ECONOMIC BAROMETER • The Reserve Bank of India reduced the CRR
(Cash Reserve Ratio) of scheduled banks by FDI in Real Estate
Dec-11 Dec-12
25 basis points from 4.50 to 4.25% with
16,000
14,000
REPO RATE 8.50% 8.00%
effect from 3 November 2012 to induce 12,000
immediate liquidity in the market. However, 10,000
REVERSE REPO
7.50% 7.00% the central bank did not provide any repo rate 8,000
INR Crore
RATE
cut this quarter. 6,000
4,000
CRR 6.00% 4.25%
• India’s foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow 2,000
INFLATION 7.74% 7.24%
was around USD1.94 billion in October 2012, 0
2005 - 06
2006 - 07
2007 - 08
2008 - 09
2009 - 10
2010 - 11
2011-12
April -Oct 12
which was nearly 65% above the same month
PRIME
9.75% - 10.75% 10.00% - 10.75% last year.
LENDING Rate
DEPOSIT RATE • his quarter, the commercial office markets in
T
7.75% - 9.50% 8.00% - 9.00%
(<1 YEAR) India have shown mixed trends. Overall, rents BSE Sensex & Realty Index
Foreign Ex- and capital values remained stagnant with a 120
change 54.96 54.43 downward bias. Notwithstanding the current 115
INR - USD economic difficulties, the leasing activity in 110
Mumbai, Delhi and Gurgaon Bangalore 105
INR- Euro 69.29 71.31
remained steady; however, the Chennai, 100
Kolkata and NOIDA markets experienced 95
relatively weak demand. 90
Return on Alternative Investments
1-Oct-2012
16-Oct-2012
31-Oct-2012
15-Nov-12
30-Nov-12
15-Dec-12
• COLLIERS VIEW: Business confidence is up
Dec-11 Dec-12 YoY % based on the government’s keen resolve to * Rebase to 100 BSE Sensex Realty Index
Change introduce numerous fiscal and economic
reforms. RBI has indicated that they would
Gold 27,670 30,885 11.62%
positively review lowering the repo rate in 1Q Exchange Rates
SILVER 52,250 60,040 14.91% 2013. This should increase liquidity in the 60 75
market; and the positive business environment 55 70
EQUITY (BSE
should lead to recovery in the country’s
50 65
SENSEX) 15,881 19,317 21.64% economic growth and increase in demand for
REALTY INDEX 1,505 2,067 37.35% commercial and residential real estate. In the 45 60
medium terms, cities with lower inventory
40 55
overhang (such as Bangalore and Mumbai)
1-Oct-12
16-Oct-12
31-Octl-12
15-Nov-12
30-Nov-12
15-Dec-12
Note : All values in the above tables are as on 15th of December,
2011 and December, 2012 will witness strengthening in the rental and
capital values. However in the short term * Rebase to 100
USD Euro
rental values across board will be under Source: Colliers International India Research
stress.
www.colliers.com
3. INDIA | 4Q 2012 | OFFICE
MUMBAI AVAILABLE Supply in Prime Areas
Goregoan / JVLR
• ore than 9.3 million sq ft of commercial
M 8%
Worli / Prabhadevi
Kalina
1%
Grade A office space was available for fit-out Powai 1%
4%
in 4Q 2012. About 24% of this total available Malad
5% Thane / LBS
space was concentrated in Andheri East. Navi Mumbai
22%
6%
• A number of projects / part of the projects
were completed this quarter resulting in CBD
1%
the addition of approximately 4 million sq
ft of Grade A office space to the city’s total Lower Parel
20%
inventory. Andheri East
24%
• easing activity picked up in the Mumbai Grade
L BKC
8%
A office market during 4Q 2012 and few large
deals were concluded during the quarter. The
MumBAI city’s total absorption for 2012 totalled around Grade a Capital Values
6.23 million sq ft. Sectors which primarily 35000
CITY OFFICE BAROMETER contributed to this absorption were Banking, 30000
Finance Services and Insurance (BFSI) and
Capital Values -INR Per Sq.ft.
3Q 2012 4Q 2012 25000
IT/ITes.
20000
Vacancy
• verage rental and capital values in Mumbai
A 15000
Absorption remained stable in 4Q 2012 across all micro- 10000
Construction
markets due to ample availability of stock and 5000
new developments in the pipeline.
Rental Value 0
CBD
Andheri East
BKC
Lower Parel
Malad
Navi Mumbai
Powai
Worli/
Prabhdevi
Goregaon /
JVLR
Kalina
Thane / LBS
• he Maharashtra State Road Development
T
Corporation (MSRDC) has opened a second
Micro Market Rental % Change flyover, named Patlipada, on the Thane-
Values
QoQ YoY
Ghodbunder Road. A total of four flyovers — the AVERAGE RENTAL AND CAPITAL TREND
Patlipada, Waghbil, Kapurbawdi and Manpada
CBD 225 - 275 0% -9% 300 30000
were planned on this road, of which Waghbil Forecast
Andheri East 90 - 125 0% 0% and Patlipada flyover are now operational;
Rental Values -INR Per Sq.ft. Per Month
250 25000
Capital Values -INR Per Sq.ft.
BKC 225 - 315 0% 3% work on the Manpada flyover is in the final 200 20000
Lower Parel 130 - 200 0% 0% stages and is expected to be operational by
the end of January 2013. 150 15000
Malad 80 - 90 0% 0%
100 10000
Navi Mumbai 55 - 75 0% 0% • COLLIERS VIEW: 4Q 2012 witnessed an
Powai 100 - 120 0% 0%
increase in absorption of office space. The 50 5000
demand showed a clear preference for 0 0
Worli/ Prabhdevi 175 - 225 0% 0%
premium quality office space. We anticipate
4Q2008
4Q2009
4Q2010
4Q2011
4Q2012
4Q2013F
1Q2008
Goregaon/ JVLR 80 - 110 0% -5% that in short to medium term the rental values
Note:
Kalina 175 - 210 0% 0% for such properties will command a premium Available Supply: Total Grade A office space being marketed for sale or lease in
surveyed quarter.
Thane / LBS 50 - 100 0% 0%
due to limited supply. Though, overall market Grade A Rental/Capital Values: Indicative asking price for Grade A office space.
rentals will witness stability on account of Prime Office Average Rental Trends: Average market rental values for Grade A
properties.
Note: All the rentals shown above are indicative Grade A rentals in INR per sq ft per month.
demand/supply equilibrium.
KEY MARKET TRANSACTIONS
CLIENT Building Name AREA (Sq. Ft.) LOCATION TRANSCATION TYPE
Covidien Boomerang 9,900 Andheri Lease
Lhoist Sahar Plaza (Windfall) 6,630 Andheri Lease
QAD India Techniplex 15,000 Goregaon Lease
Vertex Group Sigma IT Park 22,490 Rabale Lease
Visa The Capital 20,000 BKC Lease
Woodfield Systems (India) Ltd. NITCO Biz Park 10,000 Thane Sale
KEY UNDER CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS
BUILDING NAME Developer AREA (Sq. Ft.) LOCATION Expected Completion
Kohinoor Square Kohinoor Group 779,000 Central Mumbai 2013
Marathon Icon Marathon Group 175,500 Central Mumbai 2013
Mindspace IT SEZ Bldg. No.11 K Raheja Corp 400,500 Navi Mumbai 2013
Source: Colliers International India Research
Colliers International | p. 3
4. INDIA | 4Q 2012 | OFFICE
DELHI AVAILABLE Supply in Prime Areas
Connaught place
2%
• bout 1.6 million sq ft of Grade A office space
A
Nehru Place
was ready for fit-out in 4Q 2012. The majority 10%
of this supply was located in SBD locations
such as Jasola and Saket.
Jasola
• No new supply was added during the surveyed 59%
quarter to the Delhi commercial Grade A office
stock.
Saket
• Occupier demand remained steady during the 29%
quarter. A number of small transactions were
concluded in the CBD while SBD locations
like Jasola and Saket recorded few mid-size
transactions. Grade a Capital Values
delhi
60000
CITY OFFICE BAROMETER • Amid steady occupier demand and limited
supply availability the rental values for Grade 50000
Capital Values -INR Per Sq.ft.
3Q 2012 4Q 2012 A offices remained stable in almost all micro- 40000
markets.
Vacancy 30000
Absorption • Capital values remained stable in almost all 20000
micro-markets and no major activity was
Construction
witnessed in the sales market. However, the
10000
Rental Value state government has announced the new 0
Connaught Place
Jasola
Nehru Place
Saket
circle rates with effect from 5 December 2012
in the capital. As per the notification, the circle
Micro Market Rental % Change rate in Category A colonies went up by 200%,
Values
QoQ YoY in Category B by 50% and the rest by 22%. At AVERAGE RENTAL AND CAPITAL TREND
Nehru Place 180 - 192 1% 4% present, there are eight categories of colonies 400 40000
in Delhi (A through H). The circle rate is the
Forecast
Connaught Place 330 - 384 0% 2% 350 35000
Rental Values -INR Per Sq.ft. Per Month
minimum rate for registration of properties.
Netaji Subhash 65 - 75 0% 0%
Capital Values -INR Per Sq.ft.
300 30000
Jasola 112 - 130 -2% -5% 250 25000
• COLLIERS VIEW: While the demand has come
Saket 162 - 180 7% 1%
down marginally as compared to previous
200 20000
Note: All the rentals shown above are indicative Grade A rentals in INR per sq ft per month. years, the rental values remained stable during 150 15000
2012. Most of the developers are adopting a
100 10000
wait and watch approach awaiting for new 50 5000
announcement on city development plans. No 0 0
1Q2008
4Q2008
4Q2009
4Q2010
4Q2011
4Q2012
4Q2013F
major supply is expected in near term except
in Aerocity which is an emerging location in Note:
Available Supply: Total Grade A office space being marketed for sale or lease in
Delhi near International Airport. We anticipate surveyed quarter.
Grade A Rental/Capital Values: Indicative asking price for Grade A office space.
rental values to remain stable due to limited Prime Office Average Rental Trends: Average market rental values for Grade A
supply and muted demand. properties.
KEY MARKET TRANSACTIONS
CLIENT Building Name AREA (Sq. Ft.) LOCATION TRANSCATION TYPE
Franklin Templeton Ashoka Estate 5,200 Barakhamba Road Lease
Oriflame Corporate One 50,000 Jasola Lease
State Bank of India Jeevan Bharti 20,000 Connaught Place Lease
Thales Group Konnectus 18,450 Minto Road Lease
USG Corporation DLF Jasola 1,710 Jasola Lease
KEY UNDER CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS
BUILDING NAME Developer AREA (Sq. Ft.) LOCATION Expected Completion
Caddie Commercial Tower Caddie Hotel 100,000 Aerocity 2013
DLF Towers Okhla DLF Ltd. 420,000 Okhla 2013
Ambience Commercial Tower Ambience Group 150,000 Vasant Kunj 2013
Source: Colliers International India Research
p. 4 | Colliers International
5. INDIA | 4Q 2012 | OFFICE
GURGAON AVAILABLE Supply in Prime Areas
DLF Cyber City
• More than 14 million sq ft of Grade A office 4%
NH8/Udhyog Vihar
space was available for fit-out in 4Q 2012. 21%
Most of the available supply was concentrated
on Golf Course Road, Golf Course Road
Extension, Udyog Vihar, NH-8 up to Manesar.
Manesar
• During the surveyed quarter, construction 17%
activities remained upbeat and several projects Golf Course Road/
/ parts of the projects contributing more than Ext /Sohna Road
51% Institutional Sectors /
0.5 million sq ft of Grade A office space were
Sushant Lok
MG Road 2%
5%
added to the city’s total inventory.
• This quarter a number of projects / parts
Gurgaon of the projects were launched, admeasuring Grade a Capital Values
about 1 million sq.ft. Most of these projects are 25000
CITY OFFICE BAROMETER expected to be completed by the end of 2015
and will add about 1 million sq ft of Grade A 20000
Capital Values -INR Per Sq.ft.
3Q 2012 4Q 2012
office space to the city’s total inventory.
15000
Vacancy
• ccupier demand remained strong and a
O 10000
Absorption
number of mid-size (20,000 to 25,000 sq ft)
Construction transactions were recorded during 4Q 2012. 5000
The total absorption recorded during the year
Rental Value 0
was to the tune of 4 million sq ft.
NH8/Udhyog Vihar
Manesar
MG Road
Golf Course
Road/Ext
/Sohna Road
Institutional
Sectors /
Sushant Lok
Golf Course
Road/Ext /Sohna
Road (IT)
Vihar (IT)
Manesar (IT)
NH8/Udhyog
Micro Market Rental % Change • Rental values recorded a marginal increase in
Values the range of 1 to 2% in select micro-markets AVERAGE RENTAL AND CAPITAL TREND
QoQ YoY
such as Golf Course Road, Golf Course
M. G. Road 110 - 120 -2% -1%
Extension Road and Sohna Road. However, 120
Forecast
12000
Golf Course Rd./
55 - 110 1% -7% rental values remained under pressure in the
Rental Values -INR Per Sq.ft. Per Month
100 10000
Ext /Sohna Rd.
CBD and declined by 2%. All other micro-
Capital Values -INR Per Sq.ft.
NH8/Udhyog 80 8000
Vihar
110 - 140 0% 10% markets witnessed steady rents QoQ.
60 6000
Manesar 45 - 62 0% 5%
• COLLIERS VIEW: In view of the sustained trend
Institutional 40 4000
Sectors / 60 - 117 5% 1% of cost-saving initiatives adopted by most of
Sushant Lok the office occupiers, Udhyog Vihar and Sohna 20 2000
Note: All the rentals shown above are indicative Grade A rentals in INR per sq ft per month. Road will remain the most preferred location 0 0
4Q2008
4Q2009
4Q2010
4Q2011
4Q2012
4Q2013F
because of affordable rentals and location
1Q2008
advantages. The office rental value growth Note:
will be capped in medium term due to existing Available Supply: Total Grade A office space being marketed for sale or lease in
surveyed quarter.
vacancy and the forthcoming new supply. Grade A Rental/Capital Values: Indicative asking price for Grade A office space.
Prime Office Average Rental Trends: Average market rental values for Grade A
properties.
KEY MARKET TRANSACTION
CLIENT Building Name AREA (Sq. Ft.) LOCATION TRANSCATION TYPE
AB Sciex India Plot No 121 22,000 Udyog Vihar Lease
ACS Xerox Park View Business Tower 40,000 Sohna Road Lease
Mudra Communications Ltd. Platinum Towers 30,000 Udyog Vihar Lease
Pepsico Ltd. Pioneer Urban 150,000 Golf Course Ext Rd. Lease
SAP India Vatika Towers 9,500 Sector 54 Lease
KEY UNDER CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS
BUILDING NAME Developer AREA (Sq. Ft.) LOCATION Expected Completion
DLF Building 14 Tower D DLF Ltd. 731,800 NH-8 2013
Success Tower Suncity Projects 200,000 Golf Course Ext Rd. 2013
Unitech Infospace, Gurgaon Phase 2 Building 7 Unitech Ltd. 432,000 NH-8 2013
Source: Colliers International India Research
Colliers International | p. 5