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Economic Update (Sept 2011)
1. Projections & Sector Comparison Summer Stall & Zero-Sum Game (Wall Street Journal) Unemployment Rate Projections Survey of Economists (Wall Street Journal) Source: Wall Street Journal Please note: WSJ Projections were released prior to the BLS report GDP Projections Survey of Economists (Wall Street Journal)
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3. US Employment Situation Number of people employed as a temporary employee divided by total non farm payroll employment June 2009 Recession Officially Ended July 2009 Temp Penetration Trend Turns Positive Oct 2009 1 st Job Growth >100,000 (Household Survey) Nov 2009 1 st Job Growth (Payroll Survey) Temp Employment Temporary help services gained 4,700 jobs. Why is the Temp Penetration Rate Important? “ Temporary Help Employment is a Leading Indicator for Nonfarm Employment—Staffing job trends lead nonfarm employment by three months when the economy is emerging from a recession and by six months during periods of normal economic growth . ” American Staffing Association Temp Penetration Rate: 1.71% -. 01% Job Loss/Gain: + 17,000 Jobs Unemployment Rate: 9.1% unchanged I Unemployment Rate: Bachelor’s Degree or higher Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, American Staffing Association April May June July August 4.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% Nonfarm Payroll – Job Growth Details Jobs Added/Lost Private Sector 17,000 Government Sector -17,000 Total 0 Job Gains Change from Previous Month Professional & Business Services 28,000 Financial Activities 3,000 Leisure & Hospitality 2,000 Education & Health Services 34,000 - Education -1,600 - Healthcare 29,700 - Social Assistance 5,800 Job Loses Change from Previous Month Government -17,000 Retail Trade -7,800 Construction -5,000 Manufacturing -3,000
![Items to Note & GDP 2nd Quarter GDP: 1% (2nd Estimate) Sources: CNBC, Wall Street Journal, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Economic Items to Note: Decreasing Working Population & Government Employment “ The employment-to-population ratio stood at just 58.2% in August, according to the Labor Department, a hair above the 28-year low it fell to in July. That is down from 62.7% in December 2007, when the last recession started, and below the all-time high of 64.7% it reached in 2000.” “ It isn't unusual for the ratio to decline during a recession, since that is when it is harder to find work. What is unusual is for it to go lower through a recovery, as it has for the past two years.” “ The decline in the share of adults who are working reflects a shift in demographics that would have reduced the ratio even if there had been no recession. Nearly a full percentage point of the decline in the ratio appears to be the result of a surge of retirements by baby boomers.” "Many people say the best measure of employment is the employment-to-population ratio, but that's giving a distorted view if you don't take account of the demographics," said economist Dean Maki of Barclays Capital. "It would be inappropriate to expect the unemployment-to-population ratio to return to its prerecession levels.“ Since the recession started, there has also been a jump in the number of people applying for, and receiving, long-term disability benefits. History suggests that once people go on long-term disability, they rarely re-enter the job market. But while demographics and other factors suggest that the share of the population working won't rebound to prerecession levels—and that the jobs hole implied by the employment-to-population ratio is overstated— that still isn't great news. When fewer people are working, the economy can't grow as quickly, and prosperity declines. Wall Street Journal – Low Share of Adults Working Government employment continued to trend down over the month (-17,000). Despite the return of about 22,000 workers from a partial government shutdown in Minnesota, employment in state government changed little in August (+5,000). Employment in local government continued to decline. Since employment peaked in September 2008, local government has lost 550,000 jobs. BLS ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object], 2010 2011 Components of GDP 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd Consumers 1.92% 2.05% 1.85% 2.48% 1.47% 0.30% (Personal Consumption) *Businesses 3.25% 2.92% 1.14% -0.91% 0.47% 0.78% (Gross Private Domestic Investment) Net Exports (Exports-Imports) -0.97% -1.94% -0.68% 1.37% -0.34% 0.09% Government -0.26% 0.77% 0.20% -0.58 -1.23% -0.18% Total GDP 3.94% 3.80% 2.51% 2.36% 0.37% 0.99% *Inventories 3.10% 0.79% 0.86% -1.79% 0.32% -0.23% component of Business](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7)