El futuro del futuro v2
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  • HONOR TO DO IT WITH YOU! TO DO THIS NO BETTER PLACE THAN... RIGHT HERE, RIGHT NOW! THANKS!!!
  • http://paleo-future.blogspot.com/2007/04/predicts-conventions-in-space-by-year.html
  • - LAS COSAS AVANZABAN MUUUUY LENTO FORD A (1930) Max speed 65 Consumo 8.5 l/Km (25-30 EPA) 40 HP Precio: $500 2011 Taurus Max speed: 210 Consumo: 11.3 l/100 Km (18-28 EPA) 263 HP Precio: $28.000 De Havilland Comet 4 (1950) Max speed: 846 Range: 5190 Km Max Altura: 12800 Precio: 705K 787-9: Max Speed: 954 Range: 15000 Km Max Altura: 13.100 Precio: 200M
  • FORD A (1930) Max speed 65 Consumo 8.5 l/Km (25-30 EPA) 40 HP Precio: $500 2011 Taurus Max speed: 210 Consumo: 11.3 l/100 Km (18-28 EPA) 263 HP Precio: $28.000 De Havilland Comet 4 (1950) Max speed: 846 Range: 5190 Km Max Altura: 12800 Precio: 705K 787-9: Max Speed: 954 Range: 15000 Km Max Altura: 13.100 Precio: 200M
  • http://paleo-future.blogspot.com/2007/04/predicts-conventions-in-space-by-year.html
  • http://paleo-future.blogspot.com/2007/04/postcards-showing-year-2000-circa-1900.html
  • http://paleo-future.blogspot.com/2007/04/predicts-conventions-in-space-by-year.html
  • Ejemplo: genoma
  • Apple I/II Processor: 1 Mhz Memory: 4KB Display: 40x24 Price: $667 MBP 15 Processor: 2.8 Ghz Memory: 4GB Display: 1440x900 HD. 500GB Price:
  • FORD A (1930) Max speed 65 Consumo 8.5 l/Km (25-30 EPA) 40 HP Precio: $500 2011 Taurus Max speed: 210 Consumo: 11.3 l/100 Km (18-28 EPA) 263 HP Precio: $28.000 De Havilland Comet 4 (1950) Max speed: 846 Range: 5190 Km Max Altura: 12800 Precio: 705K 787-9: Max Speed: 954 Range: 15000 Km Max Altura: 13.100 Precio: 200M
  • FORD A (1930) Max speed 65 Consumo 8.5 l/Km (25-30 EPA) 40 HP Precio: $500 2011 Taurus Max speed: 210 Consumo: 11.3 l/100 Km (18-28 EPA) 263 HP Precio: $28.000 De Havilland Comet 4 (1950) Max speed: 846 Range: 5190 Km Max Altura: 12800 Precio: 705K 787-9: Max Speed: 954 Range: 15000 Km Max Altura: 13.100 Precio: 200M
  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/39097228@N00/3838748622/
  • http://paleo-future.blogspot.com/2007/04/predicts-conventions-in-space-by-year.html
  • http:// www.flickr.com / photos / alexandervandijk /3058618214/ sizes /o/in/ photostream /
  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainforest_harley/232636845/sizes/o/in/photostream/ http://www.flickr.com/photos/bahkubean/159135680/sizes/o/in/photostream/ http://www.flickr.com/photos/several_bees/872616087/sizes/z/in/photostream/
  • http://paleo-future.blogspot.com/2007/04/predicts-conventions-in-space-by-year.html
  • BIG PICTURE HUMANITY --> HUGE CHALLENGE MY GOAL: HELP NAVIGATE PPT: HOW EXP TECH CHANGE WHAT IS HUMAN - OPPORT / CHALLENGE / DO IT RIGHT
  • VIENE UNA OLA! BUENO O MALO? DEPENDE! http://www.flickr.com/photos/mikebaird/4170269645/in/photostream/ Otra posib: http://www.flickr.com/photos/soulsurfer3/3013476195/sizes/o/in/photostream/
  • ONSET OF CIVILIZ : TRUE FOR 5000, NOT FOR 50 EXP WILL TRANSFORM TRASCEND LIMITATIONS OF EXISTENCE BIG DIFF IN MEANS TO BE HUMAN COMPARISON
  • EGYPT, ROME , S. XX YOU MAY THINK A LOT HAS CHGD : NO! THE ESSENCE OF “HUMAN” EXISTENCE UNCHGD THAT WILL CHANGE SOON
  • ALL SINGLE CELL EGG 50/50 GENETIC MATERIAL FROM PARENTS LOOKS LIKE MOM!
  • BIOTECH Y GENETIC MANIP BUILD GENOMES WITH CHUNKS EJ: CRAIG VENTER, iGEM TAKE OUT BAD PARTS CLONING?
  • AFTER EGG, ALL GREW BIOL BODIES THEIR STRUCTURE WAS THE SAME PHYSIOLOGY WAS THE SAME COULD DO GREAT THINGS, BUT NOT OTHERS
  • ROBOTICS: “UPGRADE” PARTS EJ: Prosthetics, de reemplazar lo perdido a upgradear Vs Cirugia Estética ADD SENSES INTEGR WITH BIOLOGY LEAVE BODIES BEHIND? BODY = BOTTLENECK
  • SMARTEST CREATURES ORDERS OF MAGN MORE DOMESTIC OTHERS
  • ROBOTICS, NANO: IMPROVE HARDWARE OF BRAIN ADD MEMORY/ACCESS INFO AI: IMPROVE SOFTWARE -- >BE SMARTER LOSE CROWN TO NON BIOL SYSTEM PELIGROS DEL AI AMZN REMEMBERS
  • THEY LIVED ON SURFACE OF PLANET EARTH ONLY HABITAT AVAILABLE GREAT BUT SCARCE AND RISKY
  • TP SPACE!!!! CREATE CONDITIONS TO: - TRAVEL / POPULATE / BOLDLY STAY EXPAND LEGACY INSURANCE AGAINST CATASTR
  • THEY WERE BORN 30 TO 80 YEAR S: LIFE EXPECT GREW LITTLE AGED, DAMAGE, DEAD! DEATH CERTAIN
  • REGENERAT MED/NANO/ROBOTICS --> REPAIR DAMAGE EJ: IMPRESION 3D DE ORGANOS EXTEND LIFE SPAN /FEEL BETTER, HEALTHIER EJ: RESPIROCITES LIVE FOREVER?
  • ALL AGES: POVERTY , SUFFERING, INEQUALITY EXP TECH --> OPPORTUNITY TO BE FIRST INCLUDE ALL
  • VERY PROFOUND CHANGE SOME GOOD, SOME CREEPY BETTER AT MAKING THAN USING WISELY VIRUS ARTIFICIALES x $100 SMARTEST LUNATIC! ROLE OF LEADERS: ADD PEOPLE / CALM ANXIETY / PREVENT BAD OUTCOMES
  • OPPORT = RESPONSAB HELP HUMANS NAVIGATE AND TAKE THE RIGHT TURNS ETHICAL DILEMMAS NOT LEAVE OTHERS BEHIND SAFE HARBOR
  • MANY TIMES WERE EXCITING 1900: FLY 1950: TV 1970: MICROCH --> MASSIF OF COMPUTERS
  • SOOO LUCKY!: NO ERA LIKE THIS! DOMINOS TO FALL REINVENT US AS SPECIES LIVE BETTER, LONGER END POVERTY
  • HONOR TO DO IT WITH YOU! TO DO THIS NO BETTER PLACE THAN... RIGHT HERE, RIGHT NOW! THANKS!!!

El futuro del futuro v2 Presentation Transcript

  • 1. El futuro del futuro: Efectos de las tecnologías exponenciales en lo que significa ser humano
    • Santiago Bilinkis
  • 2. Parte 1: El pasado del futuro
  • 3. Durante muchos años la tecnología avanzaba linealmente (o ni eso!) -9.7% 200 0.7 Precio (M U$S) 0.0% 13100 12800 Altura max. 1.8% 15000 5190 Rango (Km) 0.2% 954 846 Max. speed Mejora anual B 787 (2011) Comet 4 (1950)
  • 4. Durante muchos años la tecnología avanzaba linealmente (o ni eso!) -6.8% 28 0.5 Precio (K U$S) 3.1% 263 40 Max. HP -0.5% 11.3 8.5 Consumo (l/Km) 1.9% 210 65 Max. speed Mejora anual Taurus (2011) Ford A (1930)
  • 5. Futuro siempre decepcionante
    • “ En el año 2000, las convenciones de negocios se harán en "cosmoteles", a los que la mayoría de los delegados viajarán en sus propias "volkscapsules" familiares” (Chicago Tribune, 1965)
  • 6. El pasado del futuro
  • 7. Parte 2: El presente del futuro Foto: Tanalyn Dollar
  • 8. Hasta que llegó la ley de Moore Fuente: Ray Kurzweil
  • 9. Y nos equivocamos al revés: el futuro fue mejor de lo que esperábamos…
  • 10. Logarithmic Plot Logarithmic Plot Logarithmic Plot Logarithmic Plot Fuente: Ray Kurzweil
  • 11. Logarithmic Plot Logarithmic Plot Logarithmic Plot Fuente: Ray Kurzweil
  • 12. Doubling (or Halving times)
    • Dynamic RAM Memory “Half Pitch” Feature Size 5.4 years
    • Dynamic RAM Memory (bits per dollar) 1.5 years
    • Average Transistor Price 1.6 years
    • Microprocessor Cost per Transistor Cycle 1.1 years
    • Total Bits Shipped 1.1 years
    • Processor Performance in MIPS 1.8 years
    • Transistors in Intel Microprocessors 2.0 years
    • Microprocessor Clock Speed 2.7 years
    Fuente: Ray Kurzweil
  • 13. Lineal o Exponencial?
  • 14. Lineal o Exponencial?
  • 15. Lineal o Exponencial?
  • 16. 30 pasos Fuente: Ray Kurzweil
  • 17. ¿Qué es crecer exponencialmente? 24,4% 1440x900 40x24 Display -3.7% 2.2 0.7 Precio (K U$S) 58,2% 500Gb 140Kb Almacenam. 52,2% 4Gb 4Kb Memoria 27.1% 2.66 Ghz 1 Mhz Procesador Mejora anual MBP (2010) Apple I/II (1977)
  • 18. Es como si… -3.7% 6 0.7 Precio (M U$S) 40.5% 12.9B (1.4 LY) 12800 Altura max. 40.5% 5.24B (0.55 LY) 5190 Rango (Km) 40.5% 792 x c 846 Max. speed Mejora anual B 787 (2011) Comet 4 (1950)
  • 19. Es como si… -3.7% 9.5 0.5 Precio (K U$S) 40.8% 1810x15TW 40 Max. HP ? 8.5 Consumo (l/Km) 40.8% 54.5K x c 65 Max. speed Mejora anual Taurus (2011) Ford A (1930)
  • 20. El presente del futuro: Computadoras creciendo exponencialmente en un mundo lineal Foto: Tanalyn Dollar
  • 21. Parte 3: El futuro del futuro
  • 22. El futuro del futuro
    • Casi nadie piensa el futuro y los que lo hacen lo hacen lineal
    • En exponencial el pasado es un pésimo parámetro para estimar lo que viene
    RODGERS TD
  • 23. La ley de Moore es contagiosa
    • Otras ciencias se convierten en TI y empiezan a evolucionar exponencialmente
      • Biología -> Biotech, Biología sintética
      • Medicina - > Med personalizada, Anti-aging
      • Robótica -> Body Improvement, Brain HW
      • AI: Brain SW, narrow apps
      • Industrias (Space and Energy): 3D printing
    Etapas de la Biología: Mirar -> Clasificar -> Diseccionar -> Manipular -> Secuenciar -> Sintetizar CC: Rainforest_Harley CC: Sappymoosetree CC: Several_bees
  • 24. La ley de Moore es contagiosa
  • 25. Logarithmic Plot Logarithmic Plot Fuente: Ray Kurzweil
  • 26. Logarithmic Plot Logarithmic Plot Fuente: Ray Kurzweil
  • 27. Y nos estamos equivocando de nuevo…
  • 28. Parte 4: El impacto de las tecnologías exponenciales
  • 29. 2 Foto: US Navy
  • 30. CC: Mike Baird
  • 31. ºº
    • About to change!!!
    4
  • 32.  
  • 33.  
  • 34. 6
  • 35.  
  • 36.  
  • 37.
    • Biological body: Leonardo imagen cuerpo?
    7
  • 38.
    • Robotics prosthetics
    8
  • 39. 9
  • 40. 10
  • 41. cc: Army.mil cc TheJourney1972
  • 42. TP SPACE!!!! Foto: Claret14
  • 43. Foto: Kaptajn Haddok cc
  • 44.
    • Regenerative medicine
    14
  • 45.
    • 1900, 50, 70
    15
  • 46. CC: eyeweed
  • 47.  
  • 48.  
  • 49.  
  • 50. El futuro del futuro: Efectos de las tecnologías exponenciales en lo que significa ser humano
    • GRACIAS!!!
    • Blog: http://bilinkis.com
    • Twitter: @bilinkis
  • 51.