El futuro del futuro v2

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  • HONOR TO DO IT WITH YOU! TO DO THIS NO BETTER PLACE THAN... RIGHT HERE, RIGHT NOW! THANKS!!!
  • http://paleo-future.blogspot.com/2007/04/predicts-conventions-in-space-by-year.html
  • - LAS COSAS AVANZABAN MUUUUY LENTO FORD A (1930) Max speed 65 Consumo 8.5 l/Km (25-30 EPA) 40 HP Precio: $500 2011 Taurus Max speed: 210 Consumo: 11.3 l/100 Km (18-28 EPA) 263 HP Precio: $28.000 De Havilland Comet 4 (1950) Max speed: 846 Range: 5190 Km Max Altura: 12800 Precio: 705K 787-9: Max Speed: 954 Range: 15000 Km Max Altura: 13.100 Precio: 200M
  • FORD A (1930) Max speed 65 Consumo 8.5 l/Km (25-30 EPA) 40 HP Precio: $500 2011 Taurus Max speed: 210 Consumo: 11.3 l/100 Km (18-28 EPA) 263 HP Precio: $28.000 De Havilland Comet 4 (1950) Max speed: 846 Range: 5190 Km Max Altura: 12800 Precio: 705K 787-9: Max Speed: 954 Range: 15000 Km Max Altura: 13.100 Precio: 200M
  • http://paleo-future.blogspot.com/2007/04/predicts-conventions-in-space-by-year.html
  • http://paleo-future.blogspot.com/2007/04/postcards-showing-year-2000-circa-1900.html
  • http://paleo-future.blogspot.com/2007/04/predicts-conventions-in-space-by-year.html
  • Ejemplo: genoma
  • Apple I/II Processor: 1 Mhz Memory: 4KB Display: 40x24 Price: $667 MBP 15 Processor: 2.8 Ghz Memory: 4GB Display: 1440x900 HD. 500GB Price:
  • FORD A (1930) Max speed 65 Consumo 8.5 l/Km (25-30 EPA) 40 HP Precio: $500 2011 Taurus Max speed: 210 Consumo: 11.3 l/100 Km (18-28 EPA) 263 HP Precio: $28.000 De Havilland Comet 4 (1950) Max speed: 846 Range: 5190 Km Max Altura: 12800 Precio: 705K 787-9: Max Speed: 954 Range: 15000 Km Max Altura: 13.100 Precio: 200M
  • FORD A (1930) Max speed 65 Consumo 8.5 l/Km (25-30 EPA) 40 HP Precio: $500 2011 Taurus Max speed: 210 Consumo: 11.3 l/100 Km (18-28 EPA) 263 HP Precio: $28.000 De Havilland Comet 4 (1950) Max speed: 846 Range: 5190 Km Max Altura: 12800 Precio: 705K 787-9: Max Speed: 954 Range: 15000 Km Max Altura: 13.100 Precio: 200M
  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/39097228@N00/3838748622/
  • http://paleo-future.blogspot.com/2007/04/predicts-conventions-in-space-by-year.html
  • http:// www.flickr.com / photos / alexandervandijk /3058618214/ sizes /o/in/ photostream /
  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainforest_harley/232636845/sizes/o/in/photostream/ http://www.flickr.com/photos/bahkubean/159135680/sizes/o/in/photostream/ http://www.flickr.com/photos/several_bees/872616087/sizes/z/in/photostream/
  • http://paleo-future.blogspot.com/2007/04/predicts-conventions-in-space-by-year.html
  • BIG PICTURE HUMANITY --> HUGE CHALLENGE MY GOAL: HELP NAVIGATE PPT: HOW EXP TECH CHANGE WHAT IS HUMAN - OPPORT / CHALLENGE / DO IT RIGHT
  • VIENE UNA OLA! BUENO O MALO? DEPENDE! http://www.flickr.com/photos/mikebaird/4170269645/in/photostream/ Otra posib: http://www.flickr.com/photos/soulsurfer3/3013476195/sizes/o/in/photostream/
  • ONSET OF CIVILIZ : TRUE FOR 5000, NOT FOR 50 EXP WILL TRANSFORM TRASCEND LIMITATIONS OF EXISTENCE BIG DIFF IN MEANS TO BE HUMAN COMPARISON
  • EGYPT, ROME , S. XX YOU MAY THINK A LOT HAS CHGD : NO! THE ESSENCE OF “HUMAN” EXISTENCE UNCHGD THAT WILL CHANGE SOON
  • ALL SINGLE CELL EGG 50/50 GENETIC MATERIAL FROM PARENTS LOOKS LIKE MOM!
  • BIOTECH Y GENETIC MANIP BUILD GENOMES WITH CHUNKS EJ: CRAIG VENTER, iGEM TAKE OUT BAD PARTS CLONING?
  • AFTER EGG, ALL GREW BIOL BODIES THEIR STRUCTURE WAS THE SAME PHYSIOLOGY WAS THE SAME COULD DO GREAT THINGS, BUT NOT OTHERS
  • ROBOTICS: “UPGRADE” PARTS EJ: Prosthetics, de reemplazar lo perdido a upgradear Vs Cirugia Estética ADD SENSES INTEGR WITH BIOLOGY LEAVE BODIES BEHIND? BODY = BOTTLENECK
  • SMARTEST CREATURES ORDERS OF MAGN MORE DOMESTIC OTHERS
  • ROBOTICS, NANO: IMPROVE HARDWARE OF BRAIN ADD MEMORY/ACCESS INFO AI: IMPROVE SOFTWARE -- >BE SMARTER LOSE CROWN TO NON BIOL SYSTEM PELIGROS DEL AI AMZN REMEMBERS
  • THEY LIVED ON SURFACE OF PLANET EARTH ONLY HABITAT AVAILABLE GREAT BUT SCARCE AND RISKY
  • TP SPACE!!!! CREATE CONDITIONS TO: - TRAVEL / POPULATE / BOLDLY STAY EXPAND LEGACY INSURANCE AGAINST CATASTR
  • THEY WERE BORN 30 TO 80 YEAR S: LIFE EXPECT GREW LITTLE AGED, DAMAGE, DEAD! DEATH CERTAIN
  • REGENERAT MED/NANO/ROBOTICS --> REPAIR DAMAGE EJ: IMPRESION 3D DE ORGANOS EXTEND LIFE SPAN /FEEL BETTER, HEALTHIER EJ: RESPIROCITES LIVE FOREVER?
  • ALL AGES: POVERTY , SUFFERING, INEQUALITY EXP TECH --> OPPORTUNITY TO BE FIRST INCLUDE ALL
  • VERY PROFOUND CHANGE SOME GOOD, SOME CREEPY BETTER AT MAKING THAN USING WISELY VIRUS ARTIFICIALES x $100 SMARTEST LUNATIC! ROLE OF LEADERS: ADD PEOPLE / CALM ANXIETY / PREVENT BAD OUTCOMES
  • OPPORT = RESPONSAB HELP HUMANS NAVIGATE AND TAKE THE RIGHT TURNS ETHICAL DILEMMAS NOT LEAVE OTHERS BEHIND SAFE HARBOR
  • MANY TIMES WERE EXCITING 1900: FLY 1950: TV 1970: MICROCH --> MASSIF OF COMPUTERS
  • SOOO LUCKY!: NO ERA LIKE THIS! DOMINOS TO FALL REINVENT US AS SPECIES LIVE BETTER, LONGER END POVERTY
  • HONOR TO DO IT WITH YOU! TO DO THIS NO BETTER PLACE THAN... RIGHT HERE, RIGHT NOW! THANKS!!!
  • El futuro del futuro v2

    1. 1. El futuro del futuro: Efectos de las tecnologías exponenciales en lo que significa ser humano <ul><li>Santiago Bilinkis </li></ul>
    2. 2. Parte 1: El pasado del futuro
    3. 3. Durante muchos años la tecnología avanzaba linealmente (o ni eso!) -9.7% 200 0.7 Precio (M U$S) 0.0% 13100 12800 Altura max. 1.8% 15000 5190 Rango (Km) 0.2% 954 846 Max. speed Mejora anual B 787 (2011) Comet 4 (1950)
    4. 4. Durante muchos años la tecnología avanzaba linealmente (o ni eso!) -6.8% 28 0.5 Precio (K U$S) 3.1% 263 40 Max. HP -0.5% 11.3 8.5 Consumo (l/Km) 1.9% 210 65 Max. speed Mejora anual Taurus (2011) Ford A (1930)
    5. 5. Futuro siempre decepcionante <ul><li>“ En el año 2000, las convenciones de negocios se harán en &quot;cosmoteles&quot;, a los que la mayoría de los delegados viajarán en sus propias &quot;volkscapsules&quot; familiares” (Chicago Tribune, 1965) </li></ul>
    6. 6. El pasado del futuro
    7. 7. Parte 2: El presente del futuro Foto: Tanalyn Dollar
    8. 8. Hasta que llegó la ley de Moore Fuente: Ray Kurzweil
    9. 9. Y nos equivocamos al revés: el futuro fue mejor de lo que esperábamos…
    10. 10. Logarithmic Plot Logarithmic Plot Logarithmic Plot Logarithmic Plot Fuente: Ray Kurzweil
    11. 11. Logarithmic Plot Logarithmic Plot Logarithmic Plot Fuente: Ray Kurzweil
    12. 12. Doubling (or Halving times) <ul><li>Dynamic RAM Memory “Half Pitch” Feature Size 5.4 years </li></ul><ul><li>Dynamic RAM Memory (bits per dollar) 1.5 years </li></ul><ul><li>Average Transistor Price 1.6 years </li></ul><ul><li>Microprocessor Cost per Transistor Cycle 1.1 years </li></ul><ul><li>Total Bits Shipped 1.1 years </li></ul><ul><li>Processor Performance in MIPS 1.8 years </li></ul><ul><li>Transistors in Intel Microprocessors 2.0 years </li></ul><ul><li>Microprocessor Clock Speed 2.7 years </li></ul>Fuente: Ray Kurzweil
    13. 13. Lineal o Exponencial?
    14. 14. Lineal o Exponencial?
    15. 15. Lineal o Exponencial?
    16. 16. 30 pasos Fuente: Ray Kurzweil
    17. 17. ¿Qué es crecer exponencialmente? 24,4% 1440x900 40x24 Display -3.7% 2.2 0.7 Precio (K U$S) 58,2% 500Gb 140Kb Almacenam. 52,2% 4Gb 4Kb Memoria 27.1% 2.66 Ghz 1 Mhz Procesador Mejora anual MBP (2010) Apple I/II (1977)
    18. 18. Es como si… -3.7% 6 0.7 Precio (M U$S) 40.5% 12.9B (1.4 LY) 12800 Altura max. 40.5% 5.24B (0.55 LY) 5190 Rango (Km) 40.5% 792 x c 846 Max. speed Mejora anual B 787 (2011) Comet 4 (1950)
    19. 19. Es como si… -3.7% 9.5 0.5 Precio (K U$S) 40.8% 1810x15TW 40 Max. HP ? 8.5 Consumo (l/Km) 40.8% 54.5K x c 65 Max. speed Mejora anual Taurus (2011) Ford A (1930)
    20. 20. El presente del futuro: Computadoras creciendo exponencialmente en un mundo lineal Foto: Tanalyn Dollar
    21. 21. Parte 3: El futuro del futuro
    22. 22. El futuro del futuro <ul><li>Casi nadie piensa el futuro y los que lo hacen lo hacen lineal </li></ul><ul><li>En exponencial el pasado es un pésimo parámetro para estimar lo que viene </li></ul>RODGERS TD
    23. 23. La ley de Moore es contagiosa <ul><li>Otras ciencias se convierten en TI y empiezan a evolucionar exponencialmente </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Biología -> Biotech, Biología sintética </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Medicina - > Med personalizada, Anti-aging </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Robótica -> Body Improvement, Brain HW </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>AI: Brain SW, narrow apps </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Industrias (Space and Energy): 3D printing </li></ul></ul>Etapas de la Biología: Mirar -> Clasificar -> Diseccionar -> Manipular -> Secuenciar -> Sintetizar CC: Rainforest_Harley CC: Sappymoosetree CC: Several_bees
    24. 24. La ley de Moore es contagiosa
    25. 25. Logarithmic Plot Logarithmic Plot Fuente: Ray Kurzweil
    26. 26. Logarithmic Plot Logarithmic Plot Fuente: Ray Kurzweil
    27. 27. Y nos estamos equivocando de nuevo…
    28. 28. Parte 4: El impacto de las tecnologías exponenciales
    29. 29. 2 Foto: US Navy
    30. 30. CC: Mike Baird
    31. 31. ºº <ul><li>About to change!!! </li></ul>4
    32. 34. 6
    33. 37. <ul><li>Biological body: Leonardo imagen cuerpo? </li></ul>7
    34. 38. <ul><li>Robotics prosthetics </li></ul>8
    35. 39. 9
    36. 40. 10
    37. 41. cc: Army.mil cc TheJourney1972
    38. 42. TP SPACE!!!! Foto: Claret14
    39. 43. Foto: Kaptajn Haddok cc
    40. 44. <ul><li>Regenerative medicine </li></ul>14
    41. 45. <ul><li>1900, 50, 70 </li></ul>15
    42. 46. CC: eyeweed
    43. 50. El futuro del futuro: Efectos de las tecnologías exponenciales en lo que significa ser humano <ul><li>GRACIAS!!! </li></ul><ul><li>Blog: http://bilinkis.com </li></ul><ul><li>Twitter: @bilinkis </li></ul>

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