`Cambio climático
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cc y Davos
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`Cambio climático
- 1. Conferencia regional sobre soluciones climáticas para el sector turístico para los países de las Américas y el Caribe Bogotá (Colombia), 3-4 de diciembre de 2008 Influencia sobre el sector turístico del fenómeno del cambio climático Luigi Cabrini Director, Desarrollo Sostenible del Turismo Organización Mundial del Turismo (OMT)
- 4. El clima mundial está cambiando “ El calentamiento climático es inequívoco” (IPCC-WG1-AR4 2007) +0.76 0 C
- 6. “ Nuestras acciones en las décadas venideras podrían derivar en riesgos de importantes perturbaciones de las actividades económicas y sociales para el final de siglo y el próximo, cuya escala sería comparable a aquellas asociadas con las grandes guerras y la depresión económica de la primera mitad del siglo XX.” Riesgos económicos derivados del cambio climático “ El cambio climático es el mayor reto al que la humanidad debe enfrentarse en el inicio del siglo XXI. Si se fracasa en este enfrentamiento, se acrecentará el espectro de reveses sin precedentes en el desarrollo humano.”
- 8. Cambio Climático y Turismo
- 16. Adaptación…
- 19. Capacidad relativa de Adaptación de los principales agentes turísticos Capacidad de Adaptación Flexibilidad en decisiones de viaje Activos móviles Activos fijos Turistas Operadores turísticos, Transportistas (ferrocarriles, líneas aéreas), Agentes de Viajes Hoteles/Resorts, Atracciones Operadores Comunidades ALTA BAJA
- 22. Turismo como una causa
- 23. Emisiones mundiales generadas por el turismo en 2005: CO 2 solamente Transporte de Turistas = 75% de Emisiones del sector Subsectores CO 2 (Mt) Transporte aéreo * 515 40% Transporte en vehículo particular 420 32% Otros transportes 45 3% Alojamiento 274 21% Actividades 48 4% TOTAL 1,302 Total Mundial (IPCC 2007) 26,400 Contribución del Turismo 4,9%
- 24. Emisiones mundiales generadas por el turismo comparadas con otros importantes sectores económicos * Instituto Mundial de Recursos Emisiones CO 2 mundiales por sector (2000)* Turismo (2005) =5% Calefacción Electricidad y Construcción 13% Manufactura y 33% Cambio en el uso de la tierra y en la silvicultura 24% Transporte 17% Otros Combustibles 10% Procesos Industriales 3%
- 25. Emisiones previstas de CO2 generadas por el Turismo, en caso de que todo siguiese como hasta ahora* _____________________________________________ * Excluidos los visitantes del día 43% 26% 21% 53% 15% 24% 6% 1% 3% 4%
- 26. Emisiones futuras de CO 2 del turismo mundial Previsiones de mitigación potencial en 2035 ________________________ * Excluidos turistas del día 2035* Previsiones de Mitigación para 2035 -38% -68% -44% 2005* Cambios- Estancias 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 Línea de Base Igual que hasta ahora Eficiencia Técnica Pautas/Largas Combinado Mt CO2
- 27. Medidas de mitigación
- 34. Red de intercambio de Información climate.unwto.org climatesolutions.travel
- 35. El Proceso de Davos
- 36. Abril 200 3 Oct. 2007 Nov. 200 7 Nov. 2007 Dic. 200 7 Abril 2008 Sep. 200 8 Nov. 2008 Nov.-Dic. 200 8 Ago.-Dic. 2009 Nov.-Dic. 200 9 2010 Día Mundial del Turismo Global Conferencia Mundial sobre el Clima (WCC-3) Ginebra Conferencia Internacional Davos Cumbre Ministerial Londres Asamblea General OMT Cartagena Cumbre Cambio Climático - ONU Bali Seminario de Adaptación y Mitigación Oxford World Travel Market Londres Conferencias Egipto, Colombia Cumbre Cambio Climático - ONU Poznan El Proceso de Davos tendrá continuidad. Cumbre Cambio Climático – ONU Copenhague Cambio climático y turismo: eventos principales Conferencia Internacional Djerba
- 40. Organización Mundial del Turismo (OMT) www.unwto.org/sdt Muchas gracias
Editor's Notes
- -observed global warming since mid-20 th century is ‘very likely’ the result of human activities -the response of natural and biological systems to the regional manifestations of this warming are being observed on every continent
- -regardless of the success of mitigation efforts, we are committed to further global warming as a result of past emissions -and the pace of climate change is ‘very likely’ to increase over the 21 st century -the best estimate is that global average temperatures will increase 1.8 to 4.0 degrees by 2100 -the response of environmental systems to this warming will continue for centuries -what are the implications for tourism?? … this was the first question we examined
- The relevance of climate change to tourism is not in some distant future, as the impacts are already affecting decision-making of tourism operators, investors and tourists alike Our report summarizes the state of knowledge in four main areas that represent the new realities of tourism in an era of global climate change __read
- examined 4 major types of impacts that destinations may have to contend with
- Climate, the natural environment, personal safety, and travel costs are four primary factors in destination choice all will be affected by climate change and mitigation -while regional level impacts are expected to be significant, no evidence to suggest impact at global scale
- -because we are committed to further climate change regardless of the success of mitigation efforts, the need for adaptation is inevitable -regardless of the nature and magnitude of impacts at your location … need to adapt
- -as evidenced by its ability to cope with recent shocks like SARS, terrorism and the Asian tsunami, tourism has high adaptive capacity … but it varies substantially between ________ -it is also important that we recognize that some tourism stakeholders and regions will require assistance to adapt effectively
- -if we look at a timeline for people, infrastructure and the intensity of CC impacts … we see that -in my working career … -in my daughters working careers -now if we also consider how long adaptation takes … information requirements, policy implementation, infrastructure reinvestment … probably on the order of at least a couple decades at best -so the inescapable conclusion is that the process of adaptation in the tourism sector needs to commence now
- -because we are committed to further climate change regardless of the success of mitigation efforts, the need for adaptation is inevitable -regardless of the nature and magnitude of impacts at your location … need to adapt
- Comparing different baseline years 2000 vs 2005, but assuming contributions are proportionally are similar
- Figure shows the 2005 baseline emissions and the growth trajectory under ‘BAU’ scenario … -projection shows emissions from tourism could more than double over next 30 years -also shows how the proportional contribution of emissions from sub-sectors … with air travel, accommodations, and activities growing contributions and car travel declining
- Figure shows the 2005 baseline emissions and the growth trajectory under ‘BAU’ scenario … again 2.5X as large in 30 years -three mitigation scenarios are also shown, where we change the assumptions of the ‘BAU’ scenario to show the potential for change in the tourism sector -in the first scenario we keep projected growth the same and just improve the technical energy efficiency in all three sub-sectors transport, accom. and activities subsectors -in the 2 nd scenario we keep air travel constant with 2005 and shift future growth in tourism transport toward modes with the lowest emission factors per pkm and increase LOS, while keeping all growth in visitation -final scenario we both improve combine the two scenarios and achieve -68% … importantly this translates into the only scenario with absolute reduction of emissions vs 2005, which is consistent with targets discussed at the recent Vienna Climate Change Talks’ … this shows that the goal of decoupling the anticipated large growth in tourism visits from growth in CO2 emissions is quite possible, but requires more than just technical improvements in EE The Technical Efficiency Scenario reduced CO2 emissions by 36% Emissions in the Modal-Shift and LOS Scenario were 43% lower than BAS for 2035, Notably, when the two scenarios were combined, CO2 emissions were reduced to 16% below the 2005 baseline and RF even by 55%.
- Four major mitigation strategies … all are used within the tourism sector The full report discusses many examples of best practice in the industry
- The relevance of climate change to tourism is not in some distant future, as the impacts are already affecting decision-making of tourism operators, investors and tourists alike Our report summarizes the state of knowledge in four main areas that represent the new realities of tourism in an era of global climate change __read
- Four major mitigation strategies … all are used within the tourism sector The full report discusses many examples of best practice in the industry
- Four major mitigation strategies … all are used within the tourism sector The full report discusses many examples of best practice in the industry
- Four major mitigation strategies … all are used within the tourism sector The full report discusses many examples of best practice in the industry