1. The document provides a technical outlook and investment rationale for IDBI Ltd, initiating a buy recommendation with short-term and medium-term price targets. 2. It summarizes IDBI's recent acquisitions and investments that are expected to benefit the bank over the long run through increased network, deposits, and retail portfolio. Value is also seen being unlocked from IDBI's investment portfolio in the coming years. 3. IDBI's core banking business is seen growing significantly in deposits and credit, leveraging its corporate relationships and expanded network. The bank is well positioned for further growth.

1. IDBI LTD.

2. Technical Outlook
Short Term Target: 150-190
Medium Term Target: 240-300
We Initiate Buy with a target of 150 on short term view.
We could see an Inverted Head and Shoulder formation on
weekly
Basis. A break out of 155-160 could lead the rally to 190-240
on
medium term.
Use stock correction as an opportunity to Accumulate in the
range
of 125-135 with a target of 240

3. Investment rationale
IFCI corporate developments an immediate trigger
IDBI owns around 5% of IFCI. IFCI is currently under-going a structural
change in its existence with a probable infusion of a strategic
partner with a global pedigree and Indian aspirations. IDBI also co-
owns with IFCI, structural gems of capital markets like SEBI, NSE,
SHCIL, CARE, ISIL, OTCEI and NSDL. It also owns sizable holdings in
Money Market institutions like DFHIL, STCIL and CCI.
Potential of value unlocking from the Investments
portfolio
Apart from these investments, IDBI owns equity
investments in various companies and institutions.
The bank has quoted equity investments of Rs 85.1bn
(Book Value as on March 2006), with a market value
of Rs 85.9bn. We expect the bank, to monetize a
sizeable proportion of its quoted and unquoted
investments over the next couple of years to restrict
this exposure to the regulatory compliance limit by
Sept’09. The discounted realizable value of these
investments are worth Rs 82.3/ share of IDBI.
IDBI LTD.

4. UWB acquisition benefits to accrue in the long-run
IDBI’s acquisition of UWB (in Oct’2006) is expected to be beneficial
over the long run for the bank. The acquisition increased IDBI’s
network by 230 branches from 195 branches to 425 branches.
IDBI can leverage on UWB’s widespread network, access to the
Low Cost Deposits and expand its Retail Credit Portfolio.
Improved Operational Performance on recoveries &
restructured assets
IDBI has assets of about Rs130bn under a Stressed Assets
Stabilisation Fund (SASF), which were transferred at Rs90bn. The
Bank is expected to make recoveries from these SASF accounts,
and subsequently redeem the zero-interest bearing securities
(means improved NIMs).
IDBI LTD.

5. Plugging The Missing Pegs
IDBI is also focusing on increasing its Fee Based Income. It has tied up with
Fortis
Insurance & Federal Bank to form a Life Insurance company, where the Bank
holds
major stake i.e. 48%. Further, leveraging on corporate relationships, the Bank is
expected to increase its offerings and enter businesses such as Assent
Management
company.
View and Valuation
IDBI’s business model is blessed with regulatory forbearance. Its transition to a
potential banking monolith has just been initiated. In the near future, its
strategic
evolution would rest on potential unlocking from investments and operational
improvement – something we feel is a compulsive regulatory conclusion. We
expect
the bank to definitely unlock value from its investments in next couple of years
– and
expect the stock to get re-rated on the back of concurrent improved operation
of the
Bank’s core business on an efficient business structure.
IDBI LTD.

6. Valuation

7. Core Business – a core focus
IDBI has registered decent growth in its core business operations i.e.,
its business volumes with a thrust on its Deposits portfolio. During
the period FY2005-07, aggregate business of the bank grew at a
CAGR of 32.2% with deposits growing at a CAGR of 69.4%. In the
same period, the bank’s credit portfolio grew at a CAGR of 17.3%
thereby beefing up its revenue stream from its core business
activity.
With an up tick in the Indian credit cycle driven by a burgeoning
economy, we expect the bank to leverage its existence corporate
relationship to expand its business volumes. Further, with a wider
geographic coverage post the acquisition if UWB, the bank is better
placed to garner market share from non industrial portfolio also.
Going forward, we expect the bank’s advances to grow at a CAGR
of 21% to Rs 914bn between FY2007-09E and deposits would
grow at 36.6% to Rs 809bn.
IDBI LTD.

8. IDBI LTD.

9. IDBI LTD.

10. Q1FY2008 Financial Performance
 Net Interest Income declined by around 35% to Rs 629mn on the back of 35%
rise in the Interest Expenses.
 Non Interest Income grew by around 40% to Rs 4bn driven by sale of
Investments to the tune of Rs 2.6bn (NSE stake sale - Rs 2bn and
Others (Rs 0.6bn).
 Operating Expenses grew by 8.3% on the back of 36% rise in Staff Cost.
 Aggregate Provisions more than doubled to Rs 1bn, lead by 194% rise in Other
Provisions and 53% increase in Tax Provision.
 Net Profit grew by mere 2% to Rs 1.5bn.
 The Banks’ Total Business grew by 30% driven by Deposits growth of 61% to Rs
468bn and
Advances growth of 14% to Rs 598bn.
IDBI LTD.

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