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The high street
High street losing its retail crown
     Other locations and channels are weakening the high street’s traditional dominance of retail



                                                                                                                1994                                                                            2014
 Gone are the days when the high street was the main port of call for
 consumers shopping needs. In the early 90s around three quarters of all retail                                    4.9%                                  High street                                12.3%
 spend made in physical stores was carried out on the high street. Since then
 the proliferation of OOT centres has diverted some of this spend to the                                                    23.9%                        Neighbourhood
 peripheries of town and city centres. By 2010 the high street’s share of                                                                                                           40.2%
 physical store sales had fallen to 47.3%. Meanwhile the growth of online
                                                                                                   50.2%
 commerce over the last decade has seen the high street’s share of total retail                                                                          Out-of-town                                       31.7%
 spend fall from 49.4% in 2000 to 42.7% in 2010.
                                                                                                                          21.0%                          Non store
 By 2014 we forecast that the high street’s share of retail spend will have fallen
 by a further 2.5% points to 40.2%, mostly at the expense of more sales going                                                                                                                 17.9%
 through OOT centres and online.
                                                                                                    Percentage share of total retail spend by location




           High street stores                          Neighbourhood stores                                   Out-of-town stores                                                  Non store
     Losing share of spend:                          Losing share of spend:                             Gaining share of spend:                                      Gaining share of spend:
     42.7% to 40.2% of spend (2010-2014)             16.2% to 15.7% of spend (2010-2014)                31.4% to 31.7% of spend (2010-2014)                          9.6% to 12.3% of spend (2010-2014)
     The high street will continue to be the         Though neighbourhood’s share of spend              Out of town remains a convenient and                         Retail spend through non store channels
     largest retail location. However it will lose   will dip slightly between 2010 and 2014 the        popular channel for consumers. Retailers                     continues to grow, mainly driven by the
     share going forward at the expense of           long term trend is that there will be a            especially of big ticket items and home                      growth of sales through the Internet.
     other locations and channels.                   resurgence in local shopping as consumers          related goods will continue to open more                     Improvements in online offers, greater
     Migration of spend online for some              look for convenience and concerns about            stores in these locations as they provide                    flexibility in delivery and new technologies
     categories such as music and video will see     local sourcing and food miles grow. Chain          ample space to display ranges effectively                    including smart phones, will make
     these stores gradually disappear from the       stores and independents are improving              and rents are comparatively cheaper than                     shopping more mobile and convenient and
     high street.                                    shop fits and store environments to cater          high street locations.                                       further drive more spend through non
                                                     for growing local demand.                                                                                       physical channels.
18
Location changes
     High street underperforming other locations


 The high street has always been at the heart of most shopping trips and will                                   +4.4%                                                  2000-2009
 continue to account for a significant share of retail spend. However retailers’
 location strategies are changing. Typical high street retailers are closing
 stores and consolidating their store estates as more sales go online. Other                                                                                           2010-2014
 retailers such as Mothercare are moving to OOT retail parks, where it is easier
 and cheaper to open larger footprint stores. In terms of physical stores more
 retailers are now reaching the consumer through out of town and this is            +2.4%                                   +2.3%
 reflected in out-of-town’s higher average annual sales growth over the last
                                                                                                                                             +2.1%
 decade compared to in-town locations.
                                                                                                +1.5%                                                      +1.4%    +1.3%
 High streets are the weakest retail location and have particularly struggled                                                                                                +0.8%
 over the last few years due to their greater exposure to discretionary spend
 compared to out-of-town and neighbourhood locations, which generate a
 larger proportion of sales through food. In 2009 high street sales declined
                                                                                         Physical               Out-of-town                  Neighbourhood          High street
 3.6% following the collapse of major chains such as Woolworths, Zavvi and
 Rosebys. While the location fared better in 2010 with sales up by a marginal
                                                                                          stores                  stores                         stores               stores
 0.2%, the growth marked the weakest uplift in high street sales since 1991.        Average annual retail growth and forecasts across shopping locations

 Space continues to contract on the high street and has worsened during the
 recession due to vacancy rates rising significantly as weaker players dropped
 out of the market. Between 2000 and 2009 space on the high street declined                    2000-2009                                                       2010-2014
 by 8.9%, this compared to growth in out-of-town space of 34.0% over the
 same period. Looking ahead, high street space growth is set to decline by
 4.0%, while out-of-town will grow by 4.8% as major retailers scale back on
 high street stores opting instead for out-of-town sites, which have                  +34.0%
 comparatively lower rents per sq ft. Bigger stores located out-of-town allow
 space for better merchandising and also provide parking facilities (often free
 of charge) close to store, a factor that is becoming increasingly important
                                                                                                                                                      +4.8%                -4.0%
 with the growth of Click and Collect services.                                                                 -8.9%

                                                                                   Out-of-town             High street                            Out-of-town        High street

19                                                                                  Space growth and forecasts Out-of-town vs. High street
Stores on the verge of a tipping point
   High street configuration will adapt as spend in some sectors increasingly moves online

                                                 Music & Video                                                                                         Electricals
 The future configuration of high       1,600                                                                                      90
                                                                                                                                              6,700                                                                            45
 streets will inevitably be impacted
                                                                                                                                   80
 by the growth of online                1,400
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               40
                                                                                                                                              6,600
 commerce. While the internet’s                                                                                                    70
                                        1,200                                                                                                                                                                                  35
 share of retail spend is rising
                                                                                                                                   60         6,500
 across all sectors, the rate at        1,000                                                                                                                                                                                  30
 which it is eating up share varies                                                                                                50         6,400                                                                            25
 considerably.                           800
                                                                                                                                   40
                                                                                                                                              6,300                                                                            20
                                         600
 The stores that are most likely to                                                                                                30
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               15
 disappear from our high streets         400                                                                                                  6,200
                                                                                                                                   20
 are the ones that are losing most                                                                                                                                                                                             10
 share to online. With the               200                                                                                       10         6,100
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               5
 digitisation     of    multimedia
                                           0                                                                                       0
 content, the ease of price                                                                                                                   6,000                                                                            0
                                                      2010             2011              2012               2013       2014
 comparison and the general                                                                                                                                2010           2011              2012               2013     2014
 convenience of online, there will                                            Online share          Store numbers
                                                                                                                                                                                 Online share          Store numbers
 be less need for stores whose
 propositions are centred on
 technology and entertainment                    Clothing                                                                                               Health & Beauty
 products, which will lead to a big     41,000                                                                                     14         14,560                                                                           6

 drop off in the number of Music &
                                                                                                                                   12         14,540
 Video and Electricals stores in                                                                                                                                                                                               5
                                        40,500
 high street locations over the                                                                                                               14,520
                                                                                                                                   10
 coming years.                                                                                                                                                                                                                 4
                                                                                                                                              14,500
                                        40,000
                                                                                                                                   8
 Meanwhile clothing will continue
                                                                                                                                              14,480                                                                           3
 to be prominently shopped for in
                                                                                                                                   6
 physical stores as consumers like      39,500
                                                                                                                                              14,460
 to try on items before they buy.                                                                                                                                                                                              2
                                                                                                                                   4
 Health and beauty stores will                                                                                                                14,440
                                        39,000
 always have a place on the high                                                                                                   2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               1
                                                                                                                                              14,420
 street as many have diversified
 their offer to include services such   38,500                                                                                     0          14,400                                                                           0
 as manicures, hairdressing and                         2010           2011                  2012           2013       2014                                 2010           2011                 2012            2013    2014
 other types of activities that can’t
 be provided online.                                                          Online share          Store numbers                                                                 Online share          Store numbers
20                                               Store numbers and online share of sector retail spend. Figures of the left axis (blue line) indicate number of stores.
                                                 Figures on right axis (red line) indicate % of online share of retail spend in sector.
The future of high streets
     What was once primarily a retail destination will gradually shift to become a place more for
     social and leisure activities and a hub for localness

      In next few years high streets across the UK are likely to see significant changes. While there are likely to be
      variances depending on different locations in terms of regions and whether they are secondary or tertiary,
      there are a number of aspects that are likely to become common place across high streets nation wide.
                                                                                                                                     The unique and innovative
                                                                                                                         high street – While the clone town Britain
                                                                                                                         label has been doing the rounds for years,
                                                                                                                         we could see a reversal in this area as high
                                                                                                                         streets become more tailored to local
                                                                                                                         interests supporting local sourcing and
                                                                                                                         local entrepreneurs to offer a more
                                                                                                                         diversified and compelling shopping
                                                                                                                         experience than out-of-town retail parks
                                                                                                                         and malls. Pop ups and innovative
                                  The social and                                                                         independent boutique style stores could
     leisure high street – As a greater                                                                                  become more prominent.
     proportion of retail spend moves online
     and to out-of-town locations, the role of
     the high street is set to change, moving
     away from being predominantly a                                                                                                 The wired high street – As
     shopping destination to a more leisure-                                                                             smart phone usage really picks up and the
     based centre. Coffee shops and                                                                                      high street becomes more leisure
     restaurants will continue to increase their                                                                         oriented, wi-fi will become more in
     share of space on high streets to cater for                                                                         demand as consumers spend more time
     the social spectrum. Retailers that remain                                                                          socialising in the town centre. Coffee
     on the high street are likely to become                                                                             houses have offered free wi-fi for years
     collection centres for online orders or act                                                                         and now some retailers such as Tesco and
     as marketing tools to encourage                                                                                     O2 are beginning to offer it in their stores.
     customers to try products before they buy                                                                           A shared free wi-fi service could be offered
     online.                                                                                                             on high streets. Retailers and other tenants
                                                                                                                         could work in collaboration with local
                                                                                                                         councils to provide the service and use
                                                                                                                         location-aware technologies to send
                                                                                                                         targeted offers and discounts to customers
                                                                                                                         for different stores as they stroll along the
21
                                                                                                                         high street.

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The impact of mobile on multichannel retail. The High Street

  • 2. High street losing its retail crown Other locations and channels are weakening the high street’s traditional dominance of retail 1994 2014 Gone are the days when the high street was the main port of call for consumers shopping needs. In the early 90s around three quarters of all retail 4.9% High street 12.3% spend made in physical stores was carried out on the high street. Since then the proliferation of OOT centres has diverted some of this spend to the 23.9% Neighbourhood peripheries of town and city centres. By 2010 the high street’s share of 40.2% physical store sales had fallen to 47.3%. Meanwhile the growth of online 50.2% commerce over the last decade has seen the high street’s share of total retail Out-of-town 31.7% spend fall from 49.4% in 2000 to 42.7% in 2010. 21.0% Non store By 2014 we forecast that the high street’s share of retail spend will have fallen by a further 2.5% points to 40.2%, mostly at the expense of more sales going 17.9% through OOT centres and online. Percentage share of total retail spend by location High street stores Neighbourhood stores Out-of-town stores Non store Losing share of spend: Losing share of spend: Gaining share of spend: Gaining share of spend: 42.7% to 40.2% of spend (2010-2014) 16.2% to 15.7% of spend (2010-2014) 31.4% to 31.7% of spend (2010-2014) 9.6% to 12.3% of spend (2010-2014) The high street will continue to be the Though neighbourhood’s share of spend Out of town remains a convenient and Retail spend through non store channels largest retail location. However it will lose will dip slightly between 2010 and 2014 the popular channel for consumers. Retailers continues to grow, mainly driven by the share going forward at the expense of long term trend is that there will be a especially of big ticket items and home growth of sales through the Internet. other locations and channels. resurgence in local shopping as consumers related goods will continue to open more Improvements in online offers, greater Migration of spend online for some look for convenience and concerns about stores in these locations as they provide flexibility in delivery and new technologies categories such as music and video will see local sourcing and food miles grow. Chain ample space to display ranges effectively including smart phones, will make these stores gradually disappear from the stores and independents are improving and rents are comparatively cheaper than shopping more mobile and convenient and high street. shop fits and store environments to cater high street locations. further drive more spend through non for growing local demand. physical channels. 18
  • 3. Location changes High street underperforming other locations The high street has always been at the heart of most shopping trips and will +4.4% 2000-2009 continue to account for a significant share of retail spend. However retailers’ location strategies are changing. Typical high street retailers are closing stores and consolidating their store estates as more sales go online. Other 2010-2014 retailers such as Mothercare are moving to OOT retail parks, where it is easier and cheaper to open larger footprint stores. In terms of physical stores more retailers are now reaching the consumer through out of town and this is +2.4% +2.3% reflected in out-of-town’s higher average annual sales growth over the last +2.1% decade compared to in-town locations. +1.5% +1.4% +1.3% High streets are the weakest retail location and have particularly struggled +0.8% over the last few years due to their greater exposure to discretionary spend compared to out-of-town and neighbourhood locations, which generate a larger proportion of sales through food. In 2009 high street sales declined Physical Out-of-town Neighbourhood High street 3.6% following the collapse of major chains such as Woolworths, Zavvi and Rosebys. While the location fared better in 2010 with sales up by a marginal stores stores stores stores 0.2%, the growth marked the weakest uplift in high street sales since 1991. Average annual retail growth and forecasts across shopping locations Space continues to contract on the high street and has worsened during the recession due to vacancy rates rising significantly as weaker players dropped out of the market. Between 2000 and 2009 space on the high street declined 2000-2009 2010-2014 by 8.9%, this compared to growth in out-of-town space of 34.0% over the same period. Looking ahead, high street space growth is set to decline by 4.0%, while out-of-town will grow by 4.8% as major retailers scale back on high street stores opting instead for out-of-town sites, which have +34.0% comparatively lower rents per sq ft. Bigger stores located out-of-town allow space for better merchandising and also provide parking facilities (often free of charge) close to store, a factor that is becoming increasingly important +4.8% -4.0% with the growth of Click and Collect services. -8.9% Out-of-town High street Out-of-town High street 19 Space growth and forecasts Out-of-town vs. High street
  • 4. Stores on the verge of a tipping point High street configuration will adapt as spend in some sectors increasingly moves online Music & Video Electricals The future configuration of high 1,600 90 6,700 45 streets will inevitably be impacted 80 by the growth of online 1,400 40 6,600 commerce. While the internet’s 70 1,200 35 share of retail spend is rising 60 6,500 across all sectors, the rate at 1,000 30 which it is eating up share varies 50 6,400 25 considerably. 800 40 6,300 20 600 The stores that are most likely to 30 15 disappear from our high streets 400 6,200 20 are the ones that are losing most 10 share to online. With the 200 10 6,100 5 digitisation of multimedia 0 0 content, the ease of price 6,000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 comparison and the general 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 convenience of online, there will Online share Store numbers Online share Store numbers be less need for stores whose propositions are centred on technology and entertainment Clothing Health & Beauty products, which will lead to a big 41,000 14 14,560 6 drop off in the number of Music & 12 14,540 Video and Electricals stores in 5 40,500 high street locations over the 14,520 10 coming years. 4 14,500 40,000 8 Meanwhile clothing will continue 14,480 3 to be prominently shopped for in 6 physical stores as consumers like 39,500 14,460 to try on items before they buy. 2 4 Health and beauty stores will 14,440 39,000 always have a place on the high 2 1 14,420 street as many have diversified their offer to include services such 38,500 0 14,400 0 as manicures, hairdressing and 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 other types of activities that can’t be provided online. Online share Store numbers Online share Store numbers 20 Store numbers and online share of sector retail spend. Figures of the left axis (blue line) indicate number of stores. Figures on right axis (red line) indicate % of online share of retail spend in sector.
  • 5. The future of high streets What was once primarily a retail destination will gradually shift to become a place more for social and leisure activities and a hub for localness In next few years high streets across the UK are likely to see significant changes. While there are likely to be variances depending on different locations in terms of regions and whether they are secondary or tertiary, there are a number of aspects that are likely to become common place across high streets nation wide. The unique and innovative high street – While the clone town Britain label has been doing the rounds for years, we could see a reversal in this area as high streets become more tailored to local interests supporting local sourcing and local entrepreneurs to offer a more diversified and compelling shopping experience than out-of-town retail parks and malls. Pop ups and innovative The social and independent boutique style stores could leisure high street – As a greater become more prominent. proportion of retail spend moves online and to out-of-town locations, the role of the high street is set to change, moving away from being predominantly a The wired high street – As shopping destination to a more leisure- smart phone usage really picks up and the based centre. Coffee shops and high street becomes more leisure restaurants will continue to increase their oriented, wi-fi will become more in share of space on high streets to cater for demand as consumers spend more time the social spectrum. Retailers that remain socialising in the town centre. Coffee on the high street are likely to become houses have offered free wi-fi for years collection centres for online orders or act and now some retailers such as Tesco and as marketing tools to encourage O2 are beginning to offer it in their stores. customers to try products before they buy A shared free wi-fi service could be offered online. on high streets. Retailers and other tenants could work in collaboration with local councils to provide the service and use location-aware technologies to send targeted offers and discounts to customers for different stores as they stroll along the 21 high street.